Climate scientist proposes extremely cold 2014 winter link to global warming.

Climate scientist proposes extremely cold 2014 winter link to global warmingMay 23, 2014 by Bob Yirka

Credit: Larisa Koshkina/public domain

(Phys.org) —Tim Palmer, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Oxford in the U.K. has published a somewhat controversial Perspective piece in the journal Science. In it, he theorizes that heavy thunderstorms in the western tropical Pacific (due to global warming) this past winter caused changes to the flow pattern of the jet stream, which resulted in the "polar vortex" that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014.

The winter of 2014 was cold in the U.S., of that there was no doubt. Subzero temperatures became the norm and heating bills skyrocketed. At the time, very few who experienced it were blaming it on global warming, but that may very well have been the cause anyway, Palmer suggests—despite the fact that global temperatures haven't been rising lately.

The western Pacific ocean, he suggests, is pulling heat in and holding on to it—that's why global temperatures haven't been increasing. That heat in the ocean, he adds, resulted in the generation of more thunderstorms in the western Pacific, releasing heat into the atmosphere (and creating powerful typhoons). That infusion of heat, he continues, caused ripples to form in the jet stream, and it was those ripples that caused the cold weather in the northern U.S.

Meteorologists generally agree that the cold weather wasn't due to it just being colder, it was because parts of the jet stream plunged south carrying arctic temperatures with it—areas north of the jet stream are typically very cold, while those below it are warm. It was those same conditions that led to a very wet Europe as the jet stream wobbled back and forth, generating storms in the Atlantic, dropping massive amounts of water as the sea gave way to land.

Despite the cold winter, Palmer's theory doesn't suggest future cold winters will be the norm. Instead, he maintains, it was just a one-off—El Niño is due, and it will almost certainly lead to a release of a lot of the heat the ocean has been holding onto, which would mean warmer winters are coming, not colder.

Interestingly, Palmer's theory results in the same outcome as another recent theory presented by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University—she believes cold snaps like the one this past winter are due to melting Arctic ice, leaving less heat reflected back into the atmosphere and thinning the jet stream and at times causing it to wobble. Others suggest global warming had nothing to do with the chilly winter—it was just climate temperature variability, as happens now and then.

Explore further:Jet stream shift 'could prompt harsher winters'

More information: Record-breaking winters and global climate change, Science 23 May 2014: Vol. 344 no. 6186 pp. 803-804. DOI: 10.1126/science.1255147

AbstractJust when it looked like spring was arriving this year, the U.S. Midwest slipped back into winter, and Detroit recorded its snowiest season ever (see the photo). Has global warming gone into reverse, or could human emissions of greenhouse gases actually be responsible for this particular record being broken? Although the chances of cold winters can in general be expected to decrease with global warming, climate change linked to the particular circulation patterns that have prevailed in the past decade or so could have played an important role in this record-breaking winter.

Journal reference:Science

© 2014 Phys.org

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User comments : 107

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thingumbobesquire

2.2 / 5 (29)May 23, 2014

Now everything remarkably proves global warming. Misogynistic anti human science is lunacy.

OdinsAcolyte

2.9 / 5 (19)May 23, 2014

That is not how heat transfer and thermodynamics work.

Gimp

1.9 / 5 (23)May 23, 2014

I know when my cup of hot coffee retains heat in the morning, I look forward to that crisp icy beverage hitting my lips and chilling me to the bone.

Lino235

1.9 / 5 (25)May 23, 2014

And, of course, the simplest explanation for the phenomena is that there was a gigantic volcanic explosion last year in the Philipines, which explains "el nino" and which explains most of the near-term climate on the West Coast. The finest of the volcanic ash is floating around in the jet-stream and reflecting back the sun's heat.

The climate imbeciles strike again.

Z99

1.9 / 5 (20)May 23, 2014

I used to be fairly confident that increasing (and obviously anthropogenic) [CO₂] must lead to global warming. I still think it is more likely than not. Its been well recognized (in the community) that particulates are "the big unknown" (as well as the response of soil and tundras) but now comes 17 years of "bad predictions", a real failure of their models and silly claims that warming causes cooling. THE major green house gas is water vapor. If our models are failing to predict the water/precipitation cycle, and its effects, then our models are crap. Anybody who claims that climate causes weather is not someone I have any interest in listening to. Someone who points out that climate "contributes to" weather is a moron. I wonder if our atmosphere "contributes to" the weather? Think I'll "do a study", then publish a piece on it...

TheGhostofOtto1923

2.2 / 5 (23)May 23, 2014

So maybe it will get hot enough to trigger the next ice age.

sirchick

2.9 / 5 (17)May 23, 2014

The amount of times here in the UK weather is predicted half a year before it arrives and has become true is so far: 0.

We get predicted hot summers, wet summers, cold winters, warm winters. Every time they make these predictions its the complete opposite!

If they would just stop publicly announcing until they are actually getting accurate results then people would probably start to listen.

Tangent2

4.1 / 5 (16)May 23, 2014

Both studies point to the same underlying cause but argue about how that cause was brought about. Both studies seem to indicate that it is the changes in the jet stream that have brought about the unusually cold weather. Perhaps we should be focusing on this aspect a bit more to determine the underlying cause.

rockwolf1000

3.8 / 5 (20)May 23, 2014

I know when my cup of hot coffee retains heat in the morning, I look forward to that crisp icy beverage hitting my lips and chilling me to the bone.

I would suggest that your brain has been wired incorrectly.

Maggnus

3.5 / 5 (19)May 23, 2014

Both studies point to the same underlying cause but argue about how that cause was brought about. Both studies seem to indicate that it is the changes in the jet stream that have brought about the unusually cold weather. Perhaps we should be focusing on this aspect a bit more to determine the underlying cause.

Perhaps the underlying cause is already being studied, and perhaps we should consider the comments of the experts studying the causes that the commonality between the differing aspects is the changing climate.Captain Stumpy

4.2 / 5 (24)May 23, 2014

And, of course, the simplest explanation for the phenomena is

@Lino235, @gimp et al,

the simplest explanation would be

That infusion of heat, he continues, caused ripples to form in the jet stream, and it was those ripples that caused the cold weather in the northern U.S.

which was predicted here http://qz.com/163...n-worse/and is based upon the SCIENCE int the video on the link above which was and has been debated for YEARS, and has been studied in detail since AT LEAST 1988 http://www.scienc...0674cf8f .

you can learn more about jet streams here: http://www.scienc...0674cf8f

Moebius

3.6 / 5 (18)May 23, 2014

Why do people think that the weather will go quietly into climate change and warming? It won't go quietly into a new, increasingly warmer climate. It will react to change just like most living things do. It will only go kicking and screaming.

Tangent2

1.5 / 5 (15)May 23, 2014

Both studies point to the same underlying cause but argue about how that cause was brought about. Both studies seem to indicate that it is the changes in the jet stream that have brought about the unusually cold weather. Perhaps we should be focusing on this aspect a bit more to determine the underlying cause.

Perhaps the underlying cause is already being studied, and perhaps we should consider the comments of the experts studying the causes that the commonality between the differing aspects is the changing climate.

Which comments would those be? The ones were the scientists advocate that their study is the correct measure? And when you say climate change is the reason, what exactly is the mechanism of implementation? To simply say that it is climate change and leave it at that is the same as publishing one of these ridiculous studies that refuse to analyze the actual underlying CAUSE of climate change and simply imply it is of human origins.

EWH

1.9 / 5 (13)May 23, 2014

He is proposing in effect a negative feedback. Warming predictions rely on a presumption of positive feedback increasing the effects of CO2 by hundreds of percent. If negative feedback in fact dominates, then the projections of warming are overstated by an even higher factor. The relatively high stability of climate outside ice age-to- interglacial period shifts indicates that negative feedbacks dominate except when transitioning from one period to the other, and prevent runaway warming or cooling.

TheGhostofOtto1923

3 / 5 (10)May 23, 2014

So maybe it will get hot enough to trigger the next ice age.

I swear none of you has any sense of humor whatsoever. That really cracks me up like an Antarctic ice sheet.jdswallow

2.2 / 5 (17)May 23, 2014

Farmers' Almanac More Reliable Than Warming Climate ModelsBad Science: It turns out that a 200-year-old publication for farmers beats climate-change scientists in predicting this year's harsh winter as the lowly caterpillar beats supercomputers that can't even predict the past.Last fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted above-normal temperatures from November through January across much of the continental U.S. The Farmers' Almanac, first published in 1818, predicted a bitterly cold, snowy winter.The Maine-based Farmers' Almanac's still-secret methodology includes variables such as planetary positions, sunspots, lunar cycles and tidal action. It claims an 80% accuracy rate, surely better than those who obsess over fossil fuels and CO2.The winter has stayed cold in 2014, and snowfall and snow cover are way above average. USA Today reported on Feb. 14 that there was snow on the ground in part of every state except Florida. That includes Hawaii.

jdswallow

2 / 5 (16)May 23, 2014

which was predicted here http://qz.com/163...n-worse/

Here are some FACTS & that is something MR Stumpy will not deal in.North West Passage blocked with ice - yachts caughthttp://www.sail-w...t/113788

April 19, 2014The Hudson Bay is packed solid with thick ice and seems to be supporting a healthy seal-feeding season for polar bears. Extreme cold and stormy weather has been pervasive throughout the region this year and should lead to a extended hunting season for bears on the ice surface. Here is the link of the most recent Hudson Bay ice chart from Environment Canada Ice Survey.http://churchillp...preview/

PinkElephant

4.5 / 5 (16)May 23, 2014

@OdinsAcolyte,

That is not how heat transfer and thermodynamics work.

I take it you're a fan of physics. Then you ought to be familiar with the basic thinking behind conservation laws.

Say a huge mass of cold polar air -- dubbed the "Arctic Vortex" -- makes its way from the arctic down south. Does it leave a giant vacuum behind, unfilled by anything at all? Probably not. Probably, some other air from elsewhere has to move up into the arctic, to take place of the air that departed. Where do you think that replacement air would come from? Since it wasn't in the Arctic before, probably from more southern latitudes, right? Meaning, it might be relatively warmer than the air that left the Arctic, right?

So let's look at *global averages* -- rather than regional swings. What's the net global effect?

http://www.ncdc.n...1404.gif

So one more time, what about heat transfer, thermodynamics, or anything else you might want to bring up?

jdswallow

1.9 / 5 (14)May 23, 2014

That infusion of heat, he continues, caused ripples to form in the jet stream, and it was those ripples that caused the cold weather in the northern U.S.

which was predicted here http://qz.com/163...n-worse/]http://qz.com/163...n-worse/[/url]

This is how MR. Stumpy's "informative" piece begins."In fact, despite the trolling of Donald Trump and other climate change deniers, global warming is probably contributing to the record cold, as counter-intuitive as that may seem. The key factor is a feedback mechanism of climate change known as Arctic amplification. Here's how to explain the nuts and bolts of it to your under-informed family and friends:(Notice the key words, probably contributing)Snow and ice are disappearing from the Arctic region at unprecedented rates, leaving behind relatively warmer open water, which is much less reflective to incoming sunlight than ice. That, among other factors, is causing the northern polar region of our planet to warm at a faster rate than the rest of the northern hemisphere. (And, just to state the obvious, global warming describes a global trend toward warmer temperatures, which doesn't preclude occasional cold-weather extremes.)"http://qz.com/163...n-worse/]http://qz.com/163...n-worse/[/url]

No way could this site be biased and just what Mr. Stumpy likes to hear, is there?

TechnoCreed

4.2 / 5 (15)May 23, 2014

And, of course, the simplest explanation for the phenomena is...

...to take a look at the global situation. Because a picture is worth a thousand words ;-)http://www.ncdc.n...1402.gifPinkElephant

4.1 / 5 (13)May 23, 2014

I also like this one (doesn't talk about record temps, but rather just shows mean departures from the 1950-1980 baseline):

http://data.giss....;pol=reg

An interesting thing to note: the graph beneath the world map, shows 'zonal' departures from baseline. It's rather obvious that everything above 60 degrees north is stupidly warmer than the norm. Notably, that's during the *winter* -- when the north gets the least (if any!) sunlight. But of course, to the deniers it's all about the sun, or cosmic rays, or fairies, or salary, or whatever...

One can play around to achieve different types of plots like the one above, by starting at this landing page:

http://data.giss....mp/maps/

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (12)May 23, 2014

Say a huge mass of cold polar air -- dubbed the "Arctic Vortex" -- makes its way from the arctic down south. Does it leave a giant vacuum behind, unfilled by anything at all?

So one more time, what about heat transfer, thermodynamics, or anything else you might want to bring up?

 PinkElephant: I'm sure that you can give me a sensible answer about where YOUR jet stream was when these historical winters occurred & will be able to explain what CO2 had to do with these historical events.The Great Blizzard of 1888, which struck the American Northeast, became the most famous weather event in history. The ferocious storm caught major cities by surprise in mid-March, paralyzing transportation, disrupting communication, and isolating millions of people.It is believed at least 400 people died as a result of the storm. And the "Blizzard of '88" became iconic.http://history180...1888.htm THE WINTER OF 1886–1887 WAS HARD ON TH

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (11)May 23, 2014

Say a huge mass of cold polar air -- dubbed the "Arctic Vortex" -- makes its way from the arctic down south. Does it leave a giant vacuum behind, unfilled by anything at all?

So one more time, what about heat transfer, thermodynamics, or anything else you might want to bring up?

 PinkElephant: I'm sure that you can give me a sensible answer about where YOUR jet stream was when these historical winters occurred & will be able to explain what CO2 had to do with these historical events.The Great Blizzard of 1888, which struck the American Northeast, became the most famous weather event in history. The ferocious storm caught major cities by surprise in mid-March, paralyzing transportation, disrupting communication, and isolating millions of people.It is believed at least 400 people died as a result of the storm. And the "Blizzard of '88" became iconic.http://history180...1888.htm 

THE WINTER OF 1886–1887 WAS HARD ON THE WEST, ESPECIALLY MONTANA. Following a series of early November blizzards, a 10-day storm blew in on January 9, 1887. Sixteen inches of snow fell in as many hours, and temperatures dropped to 46 below zero. Cattle froze to death while standing upright and ranch hands perished in vain attempts to rescue stock.http://www.bigsky...887.html

PinkElephant

4.2 / 5 (10)May 23, 2014

@jdswallow,

I'm sure not spamming isn't your forte. But you ought to at least try it on, every now and again...

I'm sure that you can give me a sensible answer about where YOUR jet stream was when these historical winters occurred & will be able to explain what CO2 had to do with these historical events.

I'll try to disabuse you of any delusions with respect to my own humble person. I do not own the Earth's jet streams. I'm not in the possession of even one single puny little personal pocket jet stream. I am not the deity you were looking for...

As to historical blizzards, nobody knows what the jet stream was doing back then, because nobody was around to measure it. I don't see what relevance any of that has to anything, other than perhaps to emphasize that winters in general used to be a lot harsher than they are now. What is today billed as an unusually cold winter season, would have been run-of-the-mill ho-hum non-event a century ago...

Captain Stumpy

4 / 5 (13)May 23, 2014

No way could this site be biased and just what Mr. Stumpy likes to hear

@jdHookerand so we continue to see that jd hooker still hasn't learned to read. did you miss the whole next sentence hooker-boy?

the SCIENCE int the video on the link

I specified the video for a reason

Great Blizzard of 1888

attempt at misdirection as well as sowing FUDLEARN SOME SCIENCE, tinkerbelle.

you've already established that you believe in the farmers almanac (who also publishes the horoscope) so at this point, if you cannot specify a relevant argument, you'll be regarded as nothing but a troll... what is that old phrase? even a broken clock is correct twice a day?

I don't know why I bother even replying to you, as now you will flood us with irrelevant BS, much like Rygg, just stupider.

thanks for proving that you can't (or more likely WON'T) learn

Egleton

4.3 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

All the world is in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the Yanks.Perhaps that is where they got the Turtle model from.Adelaide hovered around 50C in December. What cold? It was not cold, it was stinking hot.

EnricM

4.7 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

I used to be fairly confident that increasing (and obviously anthropogenic) [CO₂] must lead to global warming. I still think it is more likely than not. Its been well recognized (in the community) that particulates are "the big unknown" (as well as the response of soil and tundras) but now comes 17 years of "bad predictions", a real failure of their models and silly claims that warming causes cooling.

Just a little correction: It was cool in the USA and Canada. In Europe there were the WARMEST WINTER AND SPRING ON RECORD. Read it again, slowly. How do I know it? Well, I am writing this from Holland.

Most of you guys always forget that there is "Global" in "Global Warming".

EnricM

4 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

All the world is in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the Yanks.Perhaps that is where they got the Turtle model from.Adelaide hovered around 50C in December. What cold? It was not cold, it was stinking hot.

Worse: All the World is in the USA, here in Holland,Europe we reached the 20C in February and stood around 15C during the rest of the winter (being the normal temperatures below 0).

But hey, who are we to tell the yanks what was happening in the rest of the world? If it's cold in the fridge of a guy in Texas it has to be cold in the rest of the world. I wish them good luck if they decide to visit the Sahara in Anorak ;)

runrig

4 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

Most of you guys always forget that there is "Global" in "Global Warming".

A small correction, if I may Eric....US deniers forget.Yep, the clue is indeed in the G word.jdswallow

2.1 / 5 (15)May 24, 2014

thanks for proving that you can't (or more likely WON'T) learn

I thank you, Mr. Stumpy, for providing a post that sums up the IQ and the intelligence of the typical anthropogenic global warming alarmist. You present a great view into the depths of the mind of the agw alarmist and, if I might use a metaphor, that if depths of your mind were like a pond, one would not get their feet wet stepping into said body of water. You will never understand that the Farmer's Almanac, using whatever method they do, such as which way do dogs turn before they lay down or the strips on a wooly worm, provide them with better out comes than what NOAA predicted using computers that were fed the same sort of biased information you love to use in your links. NOAA use to be a very good scientific based organization before they got taken over by folks who, like you, have an agenda to promote.

"Last fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted above-normal temperatures from November through January across much of the continental U.S. The Farmers' Almanac, first published in 1818, predicted a bitterly cold, snowy winter." So Mr. Stumpy, who was right?

jdswallow

2.1 / 5 (14)May 24, 2014

"The Norse arrived in Greenland 1,000 years ago and became very well established," says Schweger, describing the Viking farms and settlements that crowded the southeast and southwest coasts of Greenland for almost 400 years.http://www.folio..../03.html

"Evidence of Viking Outpost Found in CanadaSharpeners may be smoking guns in quest for New World's second Viking site.Archaeologists have long known that Viking seafarers set sail for the New World around A.D. 1000. A popular Icelandic saga tells of the exploits of Leif Eriksson, a Viking chieftain from Greenland who sailed westward to seek his fortune. According to the saga, Eriksson stopped long enough on Baffin Island to walk the coast—named Helluland, an Old Norse word meaning "stone-slab land"—before heading south to a place he called Vinland."http://news.natio...utherlan

jdswallow

1.9 / 5 (14)May 24, 2014

Yep, the clue is indeed in the G word.

Tony Banton: Don't you remember all of the time and energy that folks like you have expended trying to suggest that the RWP, MWP & the LIA were confined to northern Europe because you can't explain how they occurred without the influence of your devil in the sky that you have never seen but just know he is there, CO2.

I do not want to be anything even remotely like Mr. Stumpy and just post total nonsense; so, will provide a couple of links that prove that there were warmer times on Greenland and in N.Canada.

Climate change killed off Viking settlement on Greenlandhttp://www.eartht...and/942/Norse ruins at Brattahlid.http://www.greenl...tory.htm

jdswallow

1.9 / 5 (14)May 24, 2014

As to historical blizzards, nobody knows what the jet stream was doing back then, because nobody was around to measure it. I don't see what relevance any of that has to anything, other than perhaps to emphasize that winters in general used to be a lot harsher than they are now.

"Weaker zonal wind speeds favor slower moving Rossby waves, which leads to more persistent weather patterns" ; or is it "polar vortexes" now after last winter that would not seem to end? It doesn't appear that there was a very persistent pattern in North and South Dakota in 1936 when both the record high and record low temperatures that still hold were set.

Please take note of the information given below and then tell me about drastic shifts in the climate like some want to maintain.I would certainly hope that they are able to notice the year that these records were set.

In Steele, North Dakota on July 6, 1936 the record HIGH Temperature for the state was 121⁰ F.In Parshall, N. Dakota on Feb. 15, 1936 the record LOW Temperature for the state was -60⁰F.In GANN VALLEY, South Dakota on July 5, 1936 the record Maximum Temperature for the state was 120°FIn MC INTOSH, South Dakota on February 17, 1936 the record Minimum Temperature for the state was -58°Fhttp://www.ncdc.n.../records

As Thomas Huxley famously stated: "The great tragedy in science: the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact."

orti

1.4 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

Makes perfect sense -- to a warming monger.

Rustybolts

1.7 / 5 (6)May 24, 2014

Nope, not enough ripples.

runrig

4.2 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

The positioning of the cold/air mass causes the formation of the Polar jet-stream .... and the Polar jet stream causes the positioning of the air masses.It is chicken v egg - which comes first?A jet is created by the warm/cold being side by side. The gretaer the contrast over a a shorter distance governs its strength ( warm/cold gradient>density gradient>pressure gradient>wind>Coriolis>jet)

Put simply though, a push from either the warm side of the jet north or a push from the cold side south will cause the jet to move in that location of the hemisphere. The two often come side by side.

Notable cold spells in W Europe and the E states are often caused by a WEAKENING in the Polar vortex. This happens first in the Strat when warm air is injected into the vortex there. A v cold vortex is hard/impossible to shift often (this last winter). As warmer air aloft reverses the winds there (to E'ly) this wind regime filters down to the Trop and reverses winds there, generating a -ve AO (HP).

runrig

4.2 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

Cont

Highs have divergent winds at the surface and with air sinking in the HP zone it has to go somewhere - so it pushes south. This push south will mean that the jet upstream has to go north - so reinforcing the "wriggle". Then the jet can become "locked" in a stationary position as the dynamics balance out in the trough/ridge train around the globe.

The very strong Polar vortex over N Canada this last winter had much different beginnings. Warm air was never able to intrude. It just got colder ( in the Strat ) and slowly moved to become quasi-stationary over N Canada.I do not know the causes of this - I do know though that it was not the cold air in the Trop that was giving the "push" - for the reasons I've outlined. The winds in the Vortex were convergent (LP) - so the Jet must have been given a push N from downstream causing the jet to move anomalously north over Alaska/Siberia (which it did) and then diving down E of the Rockies.

runrig

4.2 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

Makes perfect sense -- to a warming monger.

No it makes perfect sense if you understand Meteorology.I do.Captain Stumpy

4.2 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

You will never understand that the Farmer's Almanac, using whatever method they do

@jdmoron the illiterate hookerthe farmers almanac says they use sunspot activity, historical data, moon phase, tidal action and a complicated algorithm created by David Young http://www.farmer...recasts/the farmers almanac is as accurate as any other psychic phenomenon, and it's followers are also similar in that they are likely ready to support all successes as well as justify the failures. It is fascinating that you would also put such stock in its predictions. Guess that says a lot about your mentality: NOT SCIENTIFIC nor able to comprehend the scientific methodthis is why you cannot fathom nor comprehend NOAA and modern science. it involves things that scare you, like physics.

thanks for supporting my previous assumptions about your mental capacityyou are nothing more than a trolling spammer with the mental capacity of a 13 y/o hormonal schizophrenic in a coma

Captain Stumpy

4.3 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

using whatever method they do, such as which way do dogs turn before they lay down or the strips on a wooly worm, provide them with better out comes

@jd illiterate hookerone last parting shot: in the last ten years, I have lived in the mountains and I've bought the almanac every year. I also compare results to NOAA which I track daily. the results so far:ACCURACY (short term= next 3 days, long term= more than 3 days)Almanac - 0% short term forecast, 22% long termNOAA - 100% short term forecast, 75% long term

this is accuracy tracked over the last ten years specific to my area. the accuracy of the published articles fares roughly the same (especially the dog's turning direction before laying down, which is dependent upon the dog, the environment and more factors). Your belief is the key to its success, as well as its ability to put $$$ for PR and the old timers handing faith down like herpes... or religion.

RhoidSlayer

1.3 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

is climate science math or a rorschach test ?

CONSENSUS was the earth was flat .

Maggnus

4.5 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

is climate science math or a rorschach test ?

CONSENSUS was the earth was flat .

Oh it's definitely science, as in: "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment."

There was NEVER a consensus that the Earth was flat.

antigoracle

1.8 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

Me thinks Mother Earth must be going through menopause.

nevermark

4.2 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

Everything changes climate. Climate is always changing. So its not the least bit surprising that quickly increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere is having an effect. The primary problem is not that climate is changing as usual, but that it is changing faster than usual. When that happens ecosystems get damaged and take a long time (much longer than human generations) to recover.

We are now in the sixth mass extinction with no signs of extinction rates dropping. Fish, land animals, etc. are reducing in numbers with many species falling to the point of no possible recovery, or only recovery if somehow humans could stop development.

nevermark

4 / 5 (9)May 24, 2014

There is no name calling in the scientific paper being quoted above, only in some of the comments that follow. This paper is just a humble step in the search for knowledge, like every other paper. The scientists conclusions and their rationale are openly published precisely so they can both be vetted by others.

Valid disagreement or agreement, if any here are have enough expertise to make that call, would not need to be disrespectful to the paper or its authors.

ryggesogn2

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

The scientists conclusions and their rationale are openly published precisely so they can both be vetted by others.

Not all openly published.

Shootist

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

"Generally speaking, I'm much more of a conformist, but it happens I have strong views about climate because I think the majority is badly wrong, and you have to make sure if the majority is saying something that they're not talking nonsense." - Freeman Dyson

RealityCheck

3.8 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

@jdswallow. Give it a rest, mate. You come across either as ignorant of basic convection/heat-exchange & transport geo-mechanisms and dynamics OR as a political/religious/mercenary 'shill' with your narrow-view 'picture' of what is happening GLOBALLY as a WHOLE dynamic system in transition to new patterns/equilibriums of both heat content and air/water flows/currents. If you've ever owned an old-fashioned 'ice-box', you would be able to understand how heat flows via 'convection' works to re-distribute heat. In that process, for as long as existing/additional heat loads exist, localized 'cold-spots' develop depending on obstructions/currents as the system is trying to 'equalize' heat distribution in overall materials/shapes/distributions involved. You can see this for yourself every day, as cooler air moves to displace warmer air and causing 'weather' as water moisture content gets moved around with the air. Same in oceans, cooler waters move towards tropics and warmer water vice versa

antigoracle

1.5 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

in the last ten years, I have lived in the mountains and I've bought the almanac every year. I also compare results to NOAA which I track daily. the results so far:ACCURACY (short term= next 3 days, long term= more than 3 days)Almanac - 0% short term forecast, 22% long termNOAA - 100% short term forecast, 75% long term

-- Cap'n StuntyWow, despite their abysmal record you continue to purchase the Almanac. You must be a liar or just plain stupid. So, which is it?Egleton

4.6 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

The heat engine depends on a difference in temperature. The greater the difference the more powerful the engine.So far we still have ice at the poles; therefore as the planet warms the temperature difference increases: therefore we can expect more violent events.Enjoy.

Maggnus

4.6 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

The scientists conclusions and their rationale are openly published precisely so they can both be vetted by others.

Not all openly published.

Yes loon, they are. Show otherwise you freak of un-nature.antigoracle

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

Wow, despite the "Science" being settled, not one of the AGW Cult's CO2 filled crystal balls saw this coming. So, the Chicken Littles take another gulp of the Kool Aid and come here to spew their ignorance.

gwrede

4 / 5 (6)May 24, 2014

"Midwest slipped back into winter, and Detroit recorded its snowiest season ever (see the photo)."

Well, being from the North, I took a hard look at the photo and I see that there is not an ounce of snow in it. (And I'd expect everybody else from my latitudes to agree.)

The white stuff is frost. (To be exact, less than half an inch of it, too.) That means that (1) there has to be a lake nearby (2) this was taken in the fall when the lake was warm and a sudden cold front passed us last night.

//////

Please, a little less sloppiness and ignorance, if I may ask.Or, downright, a little less arrogance and cavalier attitude, thank you.

Indiana_Curmudgeon

4.3 / 5 (6)May 24, 2014

Cold in a regional area of the US, California had record high temps and the rest a fairly normal winter. More moisture in the air who wouldn't expect more snow?

RhoidSlayer

1.4 / 5 (9)May 24, 2014

Oh it's definitely science, as in: "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment."

There was NEVER a consensus that the Earth was flat.

con·sen·susk?n'sens?s/nounnoun: consensus; plural noun: consensuses

general agreement."a consensus of opinion among judges"

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge .

Oh it's definitely science, as in: "... systematic study ..."

predictable , testable , reproducable .

as in one man's theory is anothers fancy , unless you have the science to prove it .astronomy predicted the return of a comet by discovering periodicity ,millenia later , math was discovered to support a theory .

what is a 'falling star' ? a consensus from the past .

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

"2013: Middle East experiences worst snow storm since 1953.13 Dec 2013"The worst snow storms since 1953 have caused chaos in Israel and the Palestinian territories and exacerbated an already severe crisis among Syrian refugees"http://www.telegr...ast.html

This is what winter is like in Ulaanbaatar, where I have been.http://www.themon...old.html

"Snow falls in VietnamUnusual weather strikes east Asia."Last updated: 16 Dec 2013 09:39Snow has fallen in Northern Vietnam for the first time in many years."http://www.aljaze...746.html

"Sub-zero arctic blast strikes US" January 6, 2014 2:01 AMhttp://news.yahoo...259.html

"REPORTS: Rare Ice, Snow Storm Halts Atlanta Traffic Through the Night"January 29, 2014; 9:01 PMhttp://www.accuwe...22639719

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

"Tropics Go Wintery! … Northern Thailand Declared Cold Disaster Zone … Snow In Vietnam … In Turkey "Animals Literally Freeze Where They Stand"!http://notrickszo...shivers/

The volume of sea ice in the Arctic is 50 percent higher than it was last fall, satellite measurements showhttp://www.alaska...percent/

PUBLISHED DECEMBER 26, 2013"Had the ship carrying the trio of explorers in 1912, the Aurora, gotten icebound the same way the M.V. Akademik Shokalskiy did, there would have been no rescue option and certain death.http://news.natio...tl_ot_w#

"Snow closes roads in Israel, is a source of wonder in Egypt"December 13, 2013http://www.latime...nXhTlPFS

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

Most of you guys always forget that there is "Global" in "Global Warming".

A small correction, if I may Eric....US deniers forget.Yep, the clue is indeed in the G word.

Tony Banton (AKA, runrig): Do the events outlined in the links below qualify last winter, 2013-14, as being "global"?

"It is really a rare occasion for Fort Peck to freeze completely over prior to Christmas…."http://billingsga...156.html

"Thai government declares disaster zones as people are caught up in plummeting winter temperatures... of 15C"http://www.dailym...res.html

According to the Changrai Times the frost temperature was recorded at -1.4 degrees Celsius….""During a weekly cabinet meeting today, members were briefed on plummeting temperatures in Thailand's upper parts and the villagers' lack of warm clothes and blankets.http://www.dailym...res.html"

"Ms Pornnapha said the weather this year was colder than last year." http://www.bangko...n-region

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

You can see this for yourself every day, as cooler air moves to displace warmer air and causing 'weather' as water moisture content gets moved around with the air. Same in oceans, cooler waters move towards tropics and warmer water vice ve

RealityCheck: Could this below explain what you are babbling about? I sure hope so."The interaction between water temperature and salinity effects density and density determines thermohaline circulation, or the global conveyor belt. The global conveyor belt is a global-scale circulation process that occurs over a century-long time scale. Water sinks in the North Atlantic, traveling south around Africa, rising in the Indian Ocean or further on in the Pacific, then returning toward the Atlantic on the surface only to sink again in the North Atlantic starting the cycle again."

"As water travels through the water cycle, some water will become part of The Global Conveyer Belt and can take up to 1,000 years to complete this global circuit. It represents in a simple way how ocean currents carry warm surface waters from the equator toward the poles and moderate global climate." [The Global Conveyer Belt has suddenly stopped for several speculated reason in the past and caused dramatic and rapid climate changes always to the cold side; therefore, warm is preferable to cold any day]http://science.na...r-cycle/

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 25, 2014

"North West Passage - ice levels alarming for transiting yachts'Comparison between 2012 and 2013' .

"There are more pronounced ice 'choke-points' for vessels attempting a NW Passage than in recorded history. Seven vessels have been waiting around Lancaster Sound unable to navigate south nor west while other vessels in the Western Arctic have been delayed in reaching Cambridge Bay from ice in Amundsen Gulf."http://www.sail-w...kerCID=0

Churchill ice report and summer previewApril 19, 2014The Hudson Bay is packed solid with thick ice and seems to be supporting a healthy seal-feeding season for polar bears. Extreme cold and stormy weather has been pervasive throughout the region this year and should lead to a extended hunting season for bears on the ice surface. Here is the link of the most recent Hudson Bay ice chart from Environment Canada Ice Survey.http://churchillp...preview/

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 25, 2014

"The scientists were reluctant to point directly to the cause of the striking changes in the climate. But the annual reports are typically used by the federal government to prepare for the future, and in June president Barack Obama used his climate address to direct government agenciesto begin planning for decades of warming atmosphere and rising seas."http://www.thegua...ntpage=1

I guess NOAA is unaware of some facts; such as:Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%By CBC News | December 27, 2013 - 11:33 amhttp://www.alaska...percent/

Global Sea Ice Extent is 913,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 mean and is well above the one standard deviation mark.http://sunshineho...cketing/

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 25, 2014

It appears that once in a while even this site, briefly, gets caught telling the truth.

"The winter of 2014 was cold in the U.S., of that there was no doubt. Subzero temperatures became the norm and heating bills skyrocketed. At the time, very few who experienced it were blaming it on global warming, but that may very well have been the cause anyway, Palmer suggests—despite the fact that global temperatures haven't been rising lately."http://phys.org/n...er.html#

I wonder when NOAA will ever go back to telling the truth again like they use to before becoming a political tool."Noaa report says Arctic sea ice is disappearing at unprecedented paceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate study puts 2012 among the 10 warmest years on record"Tuesday 6 August 2013 20.30

Egleton

4.3 / 5 (11)May 25, 2014

Nice try JD Swallow.The arctic sea ice volumes trend is still down, if you read your link.I see that the Thai story is 90 days old..Have a look at a view of our planet from space. See the thin layer of air? See the vast volume of water? Which do you think can hold the most heat? So why does everyone obsess about the temperature of the air?.I find no comfort in your links.

mooster75

4.6 / 5 (9)May 25, 2014

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge .

Don't be silly. Sailors of all people knew the earth was at least curved, if not round. They were afraid of sailing too far from land because, prior to certain navigational advancements, losing sight of land meant you were lost.Maggnus

4.5 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

con·sen·sus k?n'sens?s/ noun: consensus; plural noun: consensuses:general agreement."a consensus of opinion among judges"

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge .

At least you got the definition right! You do, of course, have some support for your fictional claim that a concensus of sailers mutinied for "fear of sailing off it's(sic) edge"?

as in one man's theory is anothers fancy , unless you have the science to prove it .astronomy predicted the return of a comet by discovering periodicity ,millenia later , math was discovered to support a theory .

what is a 'falling star' ? a consensus from the past .

A thing that is not known or not understood cannot, by definition, be the subject of "concensus". There was no consensus as to what a falling star was, however you might define the word. You are grasping at straws.Maggnus

4.6 / 5 (9)May 25, 2014

jdswallow = gish-gallop. 7 posts in a row, all of them containing quote mines and misrepresented data, combined with multiple claims of conspiracy. No wonder he and his ilk have become irrelevant to the conversation.

Captain Stumpy

4.5 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

You must be a liar or just plain stupid

@antigoracledidnt say I bought it FOR me, did I? Wife likes it... guess you wouldn't know about something like that

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge

@RhoidSlayerActually, most sailors were aware that the earth was not "flat" (See mooster75 comments) which is where the "sailing off the edge" comes from. They knew the first visible part of a ship on the horizon was the masts, NOT the ships hull... they knew that the earth was curved from observation. You couldn't be a sailor very long and NOT observe this fact, which is why so many feared losing sight of land.jdswallow

1 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

We are now in the sixth mass extinction with no signs of extinction rates dropping. Fish, land animals, etc. are reducing in numbers with many species falling to the point of no possible recovery, or only recovery if somehow humans could stop development.

nevermark : Are you sure about what you are saying? Where are your FACTS?

"The poison dart frog Ranitomeya amazonica is one of more than 1,200 new species of plants and vertebrates discovered in the Amazon rain forest between 1999 and 2009, the international conservation group WWF announced Tuesday in a new report highlighting the region's biodiversity.http://news.natio...ictures/

"NAGOYA, Aichi, Japan, October 26, 2010 (ENS) – At least 1,200 new species have been discovered in the Amazon ecosystem, at an average rate of one every three days during the decade from 1999 through 2009, the global conservation organization WWF revealed today in a new report.This is a greater number of species than the combined total of new species found over a similar 10-year period in other areas of high biological diversity – including Borneo, the Congo Basin and the Eastern Himalayas, WWF said in the report, "Amazon Alive!: A Decade of Discoveries 1999-2009."Presented to delegates from 193 countries at the UN Convention on Biodiversity in Nagoya, the WWF report details the discoveries of 39 mammals, 16 birds, 55 reptiles, 216 amphibians, 257 fish and 637 plants – all new to science."http://www.ens-ne...-01.html

jdswallow

1 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

jdswallow = gish-gallop. 7 posts in a row, all of them containing quote mines and misrepresented data, combined with multiple claims of conspiracy. No wonder he and his ilk have become irrelevant to the conversation.

Maggnus: Please take the time to point out what that is relevant to this conversation, or another, for that matter, in the last two post that you present when the topic is this:"(Phys.org) —Tim Palmer, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Oxford in the U.K. has published a somewhat controversial Perspective piece in the journal Science. In it, he theorizes that heavy thunderstorms in the western tropical Pacific (due to global warming) this past winter caused changes to the flow pattern of the jet stream, which resulted in the "polar vortex" that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014."

I doubt that you are able to discover the misinformation in just this short excerpt: "that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014." The truth would be nice to see in that it was more than just the northern part and started far longer ago than the first 4 months of 2014.

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (9)May 25, 2014

Nice try JD Swallow.The arctic sea ice volumes trend is still down, if you read your link.I see that the Thai story is 90 days old.

.I find no comfort in your links.

Egleton: Just how long do you think that record cold temperature can last in the tropics, where it is unusual until recently? At Doi Angkhang , Thailand there are prominently displayed photos of flowers with ice cycles on them that were taken in November 22, 2006, first time ever for that to happen.

The ocean has always held heat and as I explained to RealityCheck a few post down from yours, if you feel like learning something, for a change, you can bring up the links and read the information. How can the arctic ice trend be down when "Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%"? Another proven point is that cold water absorbs CO2 while warm water gives it up and therefore the atmospheric additions of CO2 come up to 800 years after warming events in the climate. This also runs counter to warmest now claiming that the ocean is turning acidic. It is hard for them to keep their latest delusion straight. Believe what you want and what makes you happy & gives you comfort about your boogie man in the sky that has never been proven to have anything to do with the climate of today's earth.

runrig

4.5 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

pandora4real

5 / 5 (4)May 25, 2014

That's really odd from a UK resident. In fact the UK winter was warmer and wetter than normal, quite warm in Scandinavia. It was just the reverse the last few years. That's what I had been wondering about. Do warm winters in higher latitudes push the polar vortex away resulting in a colder winter on the other side of it?

pandora4real

5 / 5 (6)May 25, 2014

I know when my cup of hot coffee retains heat in the morning, I look forward to that crisp icy beverage hitting my lips and chilling me to the bone.

You accept your cup of coffee as a model for the ocean. Classic case of UCD. https://www.faceb...46853678

RealityCheck

4 / 5 (8)23 hours ago

@jdswallow.

RealityCheck, Could this below explain what you are babbling about? I sure hope so."The interaction between water temperature and salinity effects density and density determines thermohaline circulation, or the global conveyor belt. The global conveyor belt is a global-scale circulation process that occurs over a century-long time scale. Water sinks in the North Atlantic, traveling south around Africa, rising in the Indian Ocean or further on in the Pacific, then returning toward the Atlantic on the surface only to sink again in the North Atlantic starting the cycle again."

"As water travels through the water cycle, some water will become part of The Global Conveyer Belt and can take up to 1,000 years to complete this global circuit.

No, mate. What's the matter with you? It is about "weather", remember? Cold winter etc? Remember?

How many dishonest Troll/Shill "strawmen" can you make and post in one day!

You evaded the point I made. Troll/Shill. Nasty.

jdswallow

1.5 / 5 (8)21 hours ago

@jdswallow. Give it a rest, mate. You come across either as ignorant of basic convection/heat-exchange & transport geo-mechanisms and dynamics OR as a political/religious/mercenary 'shill' with your narrow-view 'picture' of what is happening GLOBALLY as a WHOLE dynamic system in transition to new patterns/equilibriums of both heat content and air/water flows/currents. If you've ever owned an old-fashioned 'ice-box', you would be able to understand how heat flows via 'convection' works to re-distribute heat. In that process, for as long as existing/additional heat loads exist, localized 'cold-spots' develop depending on obstructions/currents as the system is trying to 'equalize' heat distribution in overall materials/shapes/distributions involved. You can see this for yourself every day, as cooler air moves to displace warmer air and causing 'weather' as water moisture content gets moved around with the air. Same in oceans, cooler waters move towards tropics and warmer water vice versa

So, RealityCheck, all that you posted above was about "weather"? You sure could have fooled me with your double talking nonsense and then you allude to the fact that anyone that gives you valid facts that contest your delusional ideas; then they are a "troll". How many senseless, say nothing about anything, post can you make in one day?PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)21 hours ago

@jdswallow,

At least 1,200 new species have been discovered in the Amazon ecosystem

Right, since we haven't yet discovered all the species out there, means species extinction rates aren't sky-high and accelerating:

http://www.biolog..._crisis/

Quite some logic there, sparky.

Since you trolls appear incapable of reading links other people post (though you have quite a habit of flooding discussion threads with your own link noise...), I'll quote it for you:

Although extinction is a natural phenomenon, it occurs at a natural "background" rate of about one to five species per year. Scientists estimate we're now losing species at 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate, with literally dozens going extinct every day [1]. It could be a scary future indeed, with as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species possibly heading toward extinction by mid-century [2].

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)21 hours ago

"that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014." The truth would be nice to see in that it was more than just the northern part and started far longer ago than the first 4 months of 2014.

You might want to check out the links to charts runrig so dutifully and helpfully assembled for you (5 posts above, as I write this.) The truth *would* set you free, if you weren't so obviously scared to death of both freedom and truth...

How can the arctic ice trend be down when "Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%"?

It's up from a historic record low, dimwit. Even having recovered 50% from an abnormal low, it's still lower than normal -- and the long-term trend of decreasing ice coverage and volume continues uninterrupted:

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)20 hours ago

cold water absorbs CO2 while warm water gives it up

True, only when CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere aren't otherwise being driven by another source. With ever-more CO2 being added to the atmosphere through fossil fuel combustion, the absorption/sequestration by oceans is being overwhelmed by anthropogenic emissions. CO2 concentrations in [sea]water aren't just a function of the water's temperature; they're a function of the partial pressure of CO2 both in its dissolved phase and in the air column above the water. The two must balance.

and therefore the atmospheric additions of CO2 come up to 800 years after warming events in the climate

There's no "therefore" here, because the current GW isn't naturally caused -- it's anthropogenic, therefore the 'A' in AGW -- and so this time around, CO2 precedes the warming.

This also runs counter to warmest now claiming that the ocean is turning acidic.

Ocean acidification is a fact, and "runs counter" nothing.jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)20 hours ago

Notice how little white to blue Colder than ave there is in the NH.The USA copped the majority of the cold on offer in the NH this last winter.Which is what lies under the Polar vortex of course. It being centred over N Canada for the majority of the period.See how warm is Europe east through Russia to Alaska and also the Arctic.

Tony Banton (AKA, runrig):They all show a Zonal Mean of down, especially these two. Also note where the"Note: Gray areas signify missing data." is located. It is in the colder regions, naturally.There are exactly three weather stations used by GISS that are north of 80 degrees. Alert on Ellesmere Island is one of them. One other is a Russian station on Hayes Island in the Franz Josef Archipelago & it is getting cooler in the summer. The third is Nord on northern Greenland. It is getting warmer in all seasons.

GISS Surface Temperature Analysishttp://data.giss....;pol=rob

GISS Surface Temperature Analysishttp://data.giss....;pol=rob

I realize that Hansen has retired but this is the legacy that he left behind at GISS."Why Hansen Had To Corrupt The Temperature Record"http://stevengodd...-record/

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)20 hours ago

Quite some logic there, sparky.

Since you trolls appear incapable of reading links other people post (though you have quite a habit of flooding discussion threads with your own link noise...), I'll quote it for you:

Although extinction is a natural phenomenon, it occurs at a natural "background" rate of about one to five species per year. Scientists estimate we're now losing species at 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate, with literally dozens going extinct every day [1]. It could be a scary future indeed, with as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species possibly heading toward extinction by mid-century [2].

"GLOBAL WARMING AND LIFE ON EARTHGlobal warming presents the gravest threat to life on Earth in all of human history."

This above makes your site that you seem so proud of somewhat suspect, as well as what they maintain about the polar bears.In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the 'pause' in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues.http://www.thegwp...ntinues/

"The iconic polar bear, fast losing the sea-ice habitat beneath its feet, has become a broadly recognized symbol of the harm global warming is causing in the fragile Arctic…"http://www.biolog...dex.html

Global population of polar bears has increased by 2,650-5,700 since 2001http://polarbears...ce-2001/

When will you people ever deal with the truth?

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)20 hours ago

When will you people ever deal with the truth?

We are. You aren't. The polar bear populations are on the rise because they're a protected species since the 1970's, not because there's no warming. The long-term impacts on that species aren't slated to be happening today, or tomorrow, dimwit. The danger zone for that species is a century into the future. The trajectory, however, is unstoppable. But polar bears aren't the only species under threat. When climate changes significantly and abruptly, all kinds of species die off. That's part of what's causing the present, ongoing, and accelerating mass extinction. The other part being the stress put on natural habitats and ecosystems by human industrial, agricultural, and land-development activities -- including land use changes, pollution, transplantation of invasive species, water diversion and watershed landscape alteration, over-fishing, over-harvesting, monocultures, and so on and on and on.jdswallow

1.8 / 5 (5)19 hours ago

The truth *would* set you free, if you weren't so obviously scared to death of both freedom and truth...

How can the arctic ice trend be down when "Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%"?

It's up from a historic record low, dimwit. Even having recovered 50% from an abnormal low, it's still lower than normal -- and the long-term trend of decreasing ice coverage and volume continues uninterrupted:

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/

The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole.http://www.navalh...th-pole/

1969: the SS Manhattan, a reinforced supertanker sent to test the viability of the passage for the transport of oil, made the passage. The route was deemed not to be cost effective.http://www.fcpnor...xplorers

Cache of historical Arctic sea ice maps discoveredArctic Sea ice data collected by DMI 1893-1961http://wattsupwit...covered/

It would be great if you could show some intelligence and not the normal alarmist mentality by refraining from the name calling when you know that the facts are not on your side.

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)19 hours ago

It's up from a historic record low, dimwit. Even having recovered 50% from an abnormal low, it's still lower than normal -- and the long-term trend of decreasing ice coverage and volume continues uninterrupted:

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/

PinkElephant: Please be advised that these charts only go back to April 1979; therefore, logical people wonder what the ice was like when this happened:

AMUNDSEN EXPEDITION1. June 16, 1903http://www.pbs.or...-nf.html

"Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot…"http://www.sott.n...gs-Melt-

"Not only did the Skate surface in virtually ice-free water at the North Pole, but the weather was mild enough that crewmen went out to chip a bit of ice off the sub's hull."http://www.ihatet...ubmarine

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

PinkElephant: Please be advised that these charts only go back to April 1979

jdswallow: please be advised that your 50% recovery claim only goes back to *last year*. Whereas longer-term trends are available starting in April 1979.

refraining from the name calling

Why would I do that, when you work so hard for it, and so richly deserve it?

therefore, logical people wonder what the ice was like when this happened:

Logical people could go and Google it. There have been studies done, using various proxies, that reconstruct historical polar ice cover. Must I do it for you, or are you perhaps capable of doing the search on your own? Oh, whom am I kidding... Here you go, boobie:

http://tamino.wor...tic-ice/

And in case you are incapable of following references (again, whom am I kidding?):

http://www.nature...581.htmlhttp://www.nature..._F3.html

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)19 hours ago

When will you people ever deal with the truth?

We are. You aren't. The polar bear populations are on the rise because they're a protected species since the 1970's, not because there's no warming. The long-term impacts on that species aren't slated to be happening today, or tomorrow, dimwit. The danger zone for that species is a century into the future. The trajectory, however, is unstoppable. But polar bears aren't the only species under threat.

PinkElephant: You really do not know what you prevaricate about, do you?"Harry Flaherty, chair of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board in the capital of Iqaluit, says the polar bear population in the region, along the Davis Strait, has doubled during the past 10 years. He questions the official figures, which are based to a large extent on helicopter surveys.Forty years ago, old-timers living in the area around Hudson Bay were lucky to see a polar bear, Nirlungayuk says. "Now there are bears living as far south as James Bay."

"In the Western Hudson Bay area, where harvest quotas were reduced by 80 percent four years ago, communities are complaining about the number of polar bears. "Now people can look out the window and see as many as 20 polar bears at the ice-flow edge," Flaherty says."

Both Nirlungayuk and Flaherty ridicule media claims that the polar bear is threatened or on the verge of extinction.

Adds Flaherty: "At the end of the day, the King of the North will always be here. When we hear that polar bears are headed towards extinction, we just kind of smile at ourselves."http://www.examin...cals-say

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

You really do not know what you prevaricate about, do you?

Oh please, stop putting me upon such a pedestal. I could never live up to your level -- nor would I wish to.

Both Nirlungayuk and Flaherty ridicule media claims that the polar bear is threatened or on the verge of extinction.

On the verge of extinction, they say? Ridiculous.

Adds Flaherty: "At the end of the day, the King of the North will always be here. When we hear that polar bears are headed towards extinction, we just kind of smile at ourselves."

Of course, you won't be around to cry about it at the end of the century. But who cares to think long-term, when the end of a day is all that matters to dimwits the world over...PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)19 hours ago

There have been studies done, using various proxies, that reconstruct historical polar ice cover. Must I do it for you, or are you perhaps capable of doing the search on your own? Oh, whom am I kidding... Here you go, boobie:

http://tamino.wor...tic-ice/

Whatever, PinkElephant, goes with proxies and discounts the actual Ice conditions in the immediate past that I presented you with, that is the way you lie your way around all of these subjects, like Mann & his hockey stick. You are certainly not bright enough or can think and imagine that even with your phony "proxies" that the earth is still coming out of the Little Ice Age or it would not have ended. When do you believe conditions were better, during the LIA or after the ice retreated and opened up land previously covered in ice? You are so naive & dumbstruck by your belief in this CO2 hoax that you will never understand the truth. Just what kind of a climate do you want, as though you have any control over it, al all, & if you did, what sacrifices would you make to achieve your utopia? I know that it would be the same type of hypocrisy that we see in other proponents of your hoax, such as Al Gore, and others who do not change one thing in their life style to change what you stupidly believe to be true.

Al Gore Leaves Car Runninghttp://www.newsma...EhwArsoA

http://www.time.c...5kOyyXfx

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

the actual Ice conditions in the immediate past that I presented you with

You're full of BS like that. Yes, in any given year there will be swings up and down -- in temperature, in ice cover, in precipitation, in whatever you want. The Russians have a term for ice-free areas of open water in the arctic - polynya - and that, particularly at the North Pole, would be usually caused by the wind and currents pushing the ice around (piling it up in some places, leaving open water in others.) You will cite examples of a cold snap here and there, or a warm spell here and there in the past, and *completely ignore* the *averages*. You will wax on and off about *outliers*, while remaining totally blind to the *trend*. You are a classic case study in pathological inability to see the forest for the trees.

Just what kind of a climate do you want

One that is as stable as possible, and as close as possible to the Holocene climate optimum. Look it up, if you are capable (oh, whatever)Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

Maggnus: Please take the time to point out what that is relevant to this conversation, or another, for that matter, in the last two post that you present when the topic is this:"(Phys.org) —Tim Palmer, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Oxford in the U.K. has published a somewhat controversial Perspective piece in the journal Science. In it, he theorizes that heavy thunderstorms in the western tropical Pacific (due to global warming) this past winter caused changes to the flow pattern of the jet stream, which resulted in the "polar vortex" that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014."

In what you said? Nothing.PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)18 hours ago

what sacrifices would you make to achieve your utopia

I'd pay 5x more for electricity at home, and I'd pay 3x more for my car's fuel -- without a problem. My salary would more than allow that, and I'd suggest anyone whose salary isn't up to the task, needs to have a chat with their boss. I'd also prefer buying things made locally - because it'd be so much cheaper due to reduced transportation overhead (because of proper accounting of emissions), and I'd prefer buying things that last a long time rather than needing replacement every other month. I'd recycle much more, because it would actually be a lot more profitable for companies to use recycled materials than to extract/synthesize from scratch. I'd live closer to my work, get around more by walking and biking, and public transport; I'd move into a dwelling just big enough, with high-quality insulation and more efficient appliances... but I've already done those things. I'm also a very frugal and reluctant consumer.

You?

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

PinkElephant: Not that anything that does not fit you delusional prevaricating narrative, but I lived in Alaska for 24 years and 14 of those years were above the Arctic Circle and have seen the various animals of the area while you can't even find it on a map. I know it goes beyond your poor ability to reason things out; but, why do you think that these temperatures for Alaska still stand as the all-time records?

Alaska–80–62Jan. 23, 1971Prospect Creek Camp

Alaska10038June 27, 1915Fort Yukonhttp://www.infopl...html>

How about this one?The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced today that the record holder for the hottest temperature ever recorded on the planet had been changed. A record dating back to 1922 in El Azizia, Libya was deemed invalid and thus the honor now falls on a temperature recorded in Death Valley, California in 1913.http://www.examin...lifornia

Notice the dates, pe?

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

Tony Banton (AKA, runrig):

What do you think you prove by giving his name JDspreadsBS? Everyone here knows who he is dimbulb, he told us months ago and has never hid it.

They all show a Zonal Mean of down, especially these two. Also note where the"Note: Gray areas signify missing data." is located. It is in the colder regions, naturally.

Oh, right, the "conspiracy".

There are exactly three weather stations used by GISS that are north of 80 degrees. Alert on Ellesmere Island is one of them. One other is a Russian station on Hayes Island in the Franz Josef Archipelago & it is getting cooler in the summer. The third is Nord on northern Greenland. It is getting warmer in all seasons.

A lie. http://data.giss....ist.txt.

Gish-galloping denialist claiming conspiracy. An ignoble loon.

Maggnus

4.2 / 5 (5)18 hours ago

n a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the 'pause' in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues

A .64 dT C over the 1950 - 1981 average (where dT = change in temperature & C =Celsius) is a "pause"? Wow you are really taken in by the crap portrayed with sciency sounding words at that denialist site aren't you? Have you EVER tried to think for yourself? Rhetorical question of course.

Global population of polar bears has increased by 2,650-5,700 since 2001When will you people ever deal with the truth?

Nice sound bite JDspreadsBS! Here is the ACTUAL truth! http://www.canadi...ears.asp

Can you deal with that?

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)18 hours ago

why do you think that these temperatures for Alaska still stand as the all-time records...How about this one?

Oh, I don't know. Wait, could it be... because they are *outliers*? Naw it couldn't be, not possibly, not ever. 'cuz that'd mean basic fundamentals of statistics are actually worth something?

Speaking of statistics, you wouldn't have happened to look up the *trends* for record highs and record lows, would you have? No, of course not. You're incapable. Here, I'll help you once again (why I keep doing it, is really beyond me):

https://www2.ucar...cross-us

That some hi-temp records in Alaska and elsewhere haven't been broken *yet*, is a fool's comfort.

http://www.skepti...ows.html

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole.

Misrepresentation; from a crew member:

"The Ice at the polar ice cap is an average of 6-8 feet thick, but with the wind and tides the ice will crack and open into large polynyas (areas of open water), these areas will refreeze over with thin ice. We had sonar equipment that would find these open or thin areas to come up through, thus limiting any damage to the submarine. The ice would also close in and cover these areas crushing together making large ice ridges both above and below the water. We came up through a very large opening in 1958 that was 1/2 mile long and 200 yards wide. The wind came up and closed the opening within 2 hours."

The truth (again, appallingly easy to find!) http://tamino.wor...mselves/

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

PinkElephant: Please be advised that these charts only go back to April 1979; therefore, logical people wonder what the ice was like when this happened:

AMUNDSEN EXPEDITION1. June 16, 1903http://www.pbs.or...-nf.html

"Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot…"http://www.sott.n...gs-Melt-

"Not only did the Skate surface in virtually ice-free water at the North Pole, but the weather was mild enough that crewmen went out to chip a bit of ice off the sub's hull."http://www.ihatet...ubmarine

More misrepresented quote mining, data mining and gish-gallop. "Logical people" use truth, not misrepresentations, to present evidence.Maggnus

4.2 / 5 (5)17 hours ago

I know that it would be the same type of hypocrisy that we see in other proponents of your hoax, such as Al Gore, and others who do not change one thing in their life style to change what you stupidly believe to be true.

Al Gore Leaves Car Running

Aww boobie doesn't like some US politician! Isn't that cute, he is a denialist because he doesn't like Al Gore and the Republican party he represents. Maybe you should try accepting the science and use your political crybabying to help the Democrats win. Or the Tea Party. Or whoever.

Denialists, so predictable. Science is against them, so it must be because US political figures say something.

RealityCheck

3.9 / 5 (7)17 hours ago

@jdswallow.

So, RealityCheck, all that you posted above was about "weather"? You sure could have fooled me with your double talking nonsense and then you allude to the fact that anyone that gives you valid facts that contest your delusional ideas; then they are a "troll". How many senseless, say nothing about anything, post can you make in one day?

No, mate. The CONTEXT my post was made in was your and others' mistakingly using 'cold events' as 'proof' that global warming is not so. I pointed out in my example 'ice box' that even as the warming 'ice' melts in an ice box due to heat load ingress, there are 'cold spots' formed in various 'spots' depending on where the cooled air is going as it makes its way from the ice to the other contents/location in/of the ice box.

The point was: ice WARMING=cooled AIR; and 'colder winters' wherever colder AIR goes FROM the warmed ice because GW changes air flows/patterns EXTREMES.

Can you stop mercenary/political trolling/shilling now? :)

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)14 hours ago

Antarctica; Vanda Station, Scott Coast, Jan. 5, 1974 (59F):South Pole, Dec. 27, 1978, (7.5F).Highest average annual mean temperature (world): Dallol, Ethiopia (Oct. 1960 Dec. 1966), 94° F.Longest hot spell (world): Marble Bar, W. Australia, 100° F (or above) for 162 consecutive days, Oct. 30, 1923 to Apr. 7, 1924. Notice anything regarding the dates of these records? Anyone heard of the dust bowl & wasn't that in the 30shttp://www.infopl...375.html

This link shows the same records.http://www.worldf...emes.php

These records do change, such as in this instance.Consequently, the WMO assessment is that the official highest recorded surface temperature of 56.7°C (134°F) was measured on 10 July 1913 at Greenland Ranch (Death Valley), California, USA. Full details of the assessment are given in the on-line issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (http://dx.doi.org...0093.1).http://www.wmo.in..._en.html

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)14 hours ago

You will cite examples of a cold snap here and there, or a warm spell here and there in the past, and *completely ignore* the *averages*. You will wax on and off about *outliers*, while remaining totally blind to the *trend*. You are a classic case study in pathological inability to see the forest for the trees.

PinkElephant: This is exactly what I will do. I will ask you to disprove that these are the standing high temperature records and if you can not come up with actual, factual, records that they have been broken, then I will ask you what that does to your stupid hypotheses of a planet with a fever.

What follows are world record high temperatures: World (Africa) El Azizia, Libya; Sept. 13, 1922, (136F):North America (U.S.), Death Valley, Calif.; July 10, 1913 (134F);Asia; Tirat Tsvi, Israel, June 21, 1942, (129F):Australia ,Cloncurry, Queensland; Jan. 16, 1889 (128F):Europe, Seville, Spain,Aug. 4, 1881 (122F):South America, Rivadavia, Argentina; Dec. 11, 1905 (120F):Canada,Midale and Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan, Canada; July 5, 1937 (113F):Oceania;Tuguegarao, Philippines, April 29, 1912 (108F):Persian Gulf (sea-surface): Aug. 5, 1924 (96F):

PinkElephant

4.3 / 5 (6)11 hours ago

You really are an epic failure at math, aren't you jdswallow? Never took any statistics, at all? Never even learned to calculate averages, to say nothing of standard deviations or any such thing?

All right, if you insist on pursuing your retarded line of "reasoning", let's play that game:

http://en.wikiped...recorded

wait for it...

Captain Stumpy

4.4 / 5 (7)11 hours ago

I will ask you to disprove that these are the standing high temperature records and if you can not come up with actual, factual, records that they have been broken, then I will ask you what that does to your stupid hypotheses of a planet with a fever

@jd hookerI cant believe you posted such a profoundly stupid statement!and with this comment you have shown that1- you have NO F'ing IDEA what the word AVERAGE means2- YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW TO GET AN AVERAGE3- you are clueless as to why a RISE in AVERAGE temperatures is a bad thing4- you have NO IDEA what climate is5- you have no idea about how the scientific method works6- you have no idea what you are talking about7- you have no idea what WE are talking about8- you are throwing SPAM out for TROLLING purposes9- you have the IQ of a rotten carrot shoved up the rear end of a roadkill rabbithere is a SIMPLE example:3+7+7+7+7+7+7+7+7+7=66/10 =6.63+9+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5=52/10 =5.2NOW do you get it?now do you understand just how embarassingly stupid and profoundly idiotic your statement is?GLOBAL temps are based upon the AVERAGE of ALL temps, so an outlier is meaningless if the AVERAGE raises due to a LARGE NUMBER OF HIGH TEMP DAYS even if those temps never break the record! FFSPinkElephant

4.2 / 5 (5)11 hours ago

Firstly, I do find these somewhat amusing:

this temperature of 57.8 °C (136 °F), registered on September 13, 1922, is currently considered to have been a recorder's error).[81] Christopher C. Burt, the weather historian writing for Weather Underground who shepherded the Libya reading's 2012 disqualification, believes that the 1913 Death Valley reading is "a myth", and is at least four or five degrees Fahrenheit too high,[4] as do other weather historians Dr. Arnold Court and William Taylor Reid.[82] Burt proposes that the highest reliably recorded temperature on Earth is still at Death Valley, but is instead 53.9 °C (129 °F) recorded five times: 20 July 1960, 18 July 1998, 20 July 2005, 7 July 2007, and 30 June 2013.

On 16 January 1889, a temperature of 53 °C (128 °F) was recorded at Cloncurry, Queensland. It was measured with a non-standard thermometer, so it is unknown if this reading was valid or not.

But wait, there's more...PinkElephant

4.3 / 5 (6)11 hours ago

So how about these outliers over here:

Greenland 25.9 °C (78.6 °F) Maniitsoq 2013-07-30Japan 41.0 °C (105.8 °F) Shimanto, Kōchi 2013-08-12Austria 40.5 °C (104.9 °F) Bad Deutsch-Altenburg 2013-08-08Slovenia 40.8 °C (105.4 °F) Cerklje ob Krki 2013-08-08Germany 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) Gärmersdorf bei Amberg / Karlsruhe / March (Breisgau) / Freiburg 1983-07-27 / 2003-08-09 / 2003-08-13 / 2013-07-27Morocco 49.6 °C (121.3 °F) Marrakech 2012-07-17Kuwait 53.6 °C (128.5 °F) Sulaibya 2012-07-31Czech Republic 40.4 °C (104.7 °F) Dobřichovice, Prague-West District 2012-08-20Moldova 42.4 °C(108.3 °F) Falesti 2012-08-07Montenegro 44.8 °C (112.6 °F) Podgorica & Danilovgrad 2007-08-16 & 2012-08-08Iraq 53.0 °C (127.4 °F) Ali Air Base, Nasiriyah 2011-08-03South Pole −12.3 °C (9.9 °F) Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station 2011-12-25

I *could* go on... but golly gee willikers, don't you notice something about them thar dates? I mean, wowzers! Yowza! Auuuuuga! Hubba-hubba! Wheeeee-whoooieeee!Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)10 hours ago

PinkElephant: This is exactly what I will do. I will ask you to disprove that these are the standing high temperature records and if you can not come up with actual, factual, records that they have been broken, then I will ask you what that does to your stupid hypotheses of a planet with a fever.

What follows are world record high temperatures: World (Africa) El Azizia, Libya; Sept. 13, 1922, (136F):North America (U.S.), Death Valley, Calif.; July 10, 1913 (134F);Asia; Tirat Tsvi, Israel, June 21, 1942, (129F):Australia ,Cloncurry, Queensland; Jan. 16, 1889 (128F):Europe, Seville, Spain,Aug. 4, 1881 (122F):South America, Rivadavia, Argentina; Dec. 11, 1905 (120F):Canada,Midale and Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan, Canada; July 5, 1937 (113F):Oceania;Tuguegarao, Philippines, April 29, 1912 (108F):Persian Gulf (sea-surface): Aug. 5, 1924 (96F):

Cherry picking at its finest!Maggnus

5 / 5 (3)2 hours ago

Which comments would those be?

You know, where they say that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will result in a greenhouse effect, causing the planet to warm. Have you come out of a coma recently?

The ones were the scientists advocate that their study is the correct measure?

Maybe, hard to tell what you're trying to ask here

And when you say climate change is the reason, what exactly is the mechanism of implementation?

That's that "adding CO2" part again.

To simply say that it is climate change and leave it at that is the same as publishing one of these ridiculous studies that refuse to analyze the actual underlying CAUSE of climate change and simply imply it is of human origins.

Oh you mean the "cause" as in adding giga-tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere thus increasing its greenhouse effect, thereby warming the climate and triggering climate change? Yea, seems to make sense.Javascript is currently disabled in your web browser. For full site functionality, it is necessary to enable Javascript. In order to enable it, please see these instructions.

© Phys.org™ 2003-2013, Science X network

Climate scientist proposes extremely cold 2014 winter link to global warmingMay 23, 2014 by Bob Yirka

Credit: Larisa Koshkina/public domain

(Phys.org) —Tim Palmer, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Oxford in the U.K. has published a somewhat controversial Perspective piece in the journal Science. In it, he theorizes that heavy thunderstorms in the western tropical Pacific (due to global warming) this past winter caused changes to the flow pattern of the jet stream, which resulted in the "polar vortex" that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014.

The winter of 2014 was cold in the U.S., of that there was no doubt. Subzero temperatures became the norm and heating bills skyrocketed. At the time, very few who experienced it were blaming it on global warming, but that may very well have been the cause anyway, Palmer suggests—despite the fact that global temperatures haven't been rising lately.

The western Pacific ocean, he suggests, is pulling heat in and holding on to it—that's why global temperatures haven't been increasing. That heat in the ocean, he adds, resulted in the generation of more thunderstorms in the western Pacific, releasing heat into the atmosphere (and creating powerful typhoons). That infusion of heat, he continues, caused ripples to form in the jet stream, and it was those ripples that caused the cold weather in the northern U.S.

Meteorologists generally agree that the cold weather wasn't due to it just being colder, it was because parts of the jet stream plunged south carrying arctic temperatures with it—areas north of the jet stream are typically very cold, while those below it are warm. It was those same conditions that led to a very wet Europe as the jet stream wobbled back and forth, generating storms in the Atlantic, dropping massive amounts of water as the sea gave way to land.

Despite the cold winter, Palmer's theory doesn't suggest future cold winters will be the norm. Instead, he maintains, it was just a one-off—El Niño is due, and it will almost certainly lead to a release of a lot of the heat the ocean has been holding onto, which would mean warmer winters are coming, not colder.

Interestingly, Palmer's theory results in the same outcome as another recent theory presented by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University—she believes cold snaps like the one this past winter are due to melting Arctic ice, leaving less heat reflected back into the atmosphere and thinning the jet stream and at times causing it to wobble. Others suggest global warming had nothing to do with the chilly winter—it was just climate temperature variability, as happens now and then.

Explore further:Jet stream shift 'could prompt harsher winters'

More information: Record-breaking winters and global climate change, Science 23 May 2014: Vol. 344 no. 6186 pp. 803-804. DOI: 10.1126/science.1255147

AbstractJust when it looked like spring was arriving this year, the U.S. Midwest slipped back into winter, and Detroit recorded its snowiest season ever (see the photo). Has global warming gone into reverse, or could human emissions of greenhouse gases actually be responsible for this particular record being broken? Although the chances of cold winters can in general be expected to decrease with global warming, climate change linked to the particular circulation patterns that have prevailed in the past decade or so could have played an important role in this record-breaking winter.

Journal reference:Science

© 2014 Phys.org

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User comments : 107

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thingumbobesquire

2.2 / 5 (29)May 23, 2014

Now everything remarkably proves global warming. Misogynistic anti human science is lunacy.

OdinsAcolyte

2.9 / 5 (19)May 23, 2014

That is not how heat transfer and thermodynamics work.

Gimp

1.9 / 5 (23)May 23, 2014

I know when my cup of hot coffee retains heat in the morning, I look forward to that crisp icy beverage hitting my lips and chilling me to the bone.

Lino235

1.9 / 5 (25)May 23, 2014

And, of course, the simplest explanation for the phenomena is that there was a gigantic volcanic explosion last year in the Philipines, which explains "el nino" and which explains most of the near-term climate on the West Coast. The finest of the volcanic ash is floating around in the jet-stream and reflecting back the sun's heat.

The climate imbeciles strike again.

Z99

1.9 / 5 (20)May 23, 2014

I used to be fairly confident that increasing (and obviously anthropogenic) [CO₂] must lead to global warming. I still think it is more likely than not. Its been well recognized (in the community) that particulates are "the big unknown" (as well as the response of soil and tundras) but now comes 17 years of "bad predictions", a real failure of their models and silly claims that warming causes cooling. THE major green house gas is water vapor. If our models are failing to predict the water/precipitation cycle, and its effects, then our models are crap. Anybody who claims that climate causes weather is not someone I have any interest in listening to. Someone who points out that climate "contributes to" weather is a moron. I wonder if our atmosphere "contributes to" the weather? Think I'll "do a study", then publish a piece on it...

TheGhostofOtto1923

2.2 / 5 (23)May 23, 2014

So maybe it will get hot enough to trigger the next ice age.

sirchick

2.9 / 5 (17)May 23, 2014

The amount of times here in the UK weather is predicted half a year before it arrives and has become true is so far: 0.

We get predicted hot summers, wet summers, cold winters, warm winters. Every time they make these predictions its the complete opposite!

If they would just stop publicly announcing until they are actually getting accurate results then people would probably start to listen.

Tangent2

4.1 / 5 (16)May 23, 2014

Both studies point to the same underlying cause but argue about how that cause was brought about. Both studies seem to indicate that it is the changes in the jet stream that have brought about the unusually cold weather. Perhaps we should be focusing on this aspect a bit more to determine the underlying cause.

rockwolf1000

3.8 / 5 (20)May 23, 2014

I know when my cup of hot coffee retains heat in the morning, I look forward to that crisp icy beverage hitting my lips and chilling me to the bone.

I would suggest that your brain has been wired incorrectly.

Maggnus

3.5 / 5 (19)May 23, 2014

Both studies point to the same underlying cause but argue about how that cause was brought about. Both studies seem to indicate that it is the changes in the jet stream that have brought about the unusually cold weather. Perhaps we should be focusing on this aspect a bit more to determine the underlying cause.

Perhaps the underlying cause is already being studied, and perhaps we should consider the comments of the experts studying the causes that the commonality between the differing aspects is the changing climate.

Captain Stumpy

4.2 / 5 (24)May 23, 2014

And, of course, the simplest explanation for the phenomena is

@Lino235, @gimp et al,

the simplest explanation would be

That infusion of heat, he continues, caused ripples to form in the jet stream, and it was those ripples that caused the cold weather in the northern U.S.

which was predicted here

http://qz.com/163...n-worse/

and is based upon the SCIENCE int the video on the link above which was and has been debated for YEARS, and has been studied in detail since AT LEAST 1988

http://www.scienc...0674cf8f

.

you can learn more about jet streams here: http://www.scienc...0674cf8f

Moebius

3.6 / 5 (18)May 23, 2014

Why do people think that the weather will go quietly into climate change and warming? It won't go quietly into a new, increasingly warmer climate. It will react to change just like most living things do. It will only go kicking and screaming.

Tangent2

1.5 / 5 (15)May 23, 2014

Both studies point to the same underlying cause but argue about how that cause was brought about. Both studies seem to indicate that it is the changes in the jet stream that have brought about the unusually cold weather. Perhaps we should be focusing on this aspect a bit more to determine the underlying cause.

Perhaps the underlying cause is already being studied, and perhaps we should consider the comments of the experts studying the causes that the commonality between the differing aspects is the changing climate.

Which comments would those be? The ones were the scientists advocate that their study is the correct measure? And when you say climate change is the reason, what exactly is the mechanism of implementation? To simply say that it is climate change and leave it at that is the same as publishing one of these ridiculous studies that refuse to analyze the actual underlying CAUSE of climate change and simply imply it is of human origins.

EWH

1.9 / 5 (13)May 23, 2014

He is proposing in effect a negative feedback. Warming predictions rely on a presumption of positive feedback increasing the effects of CO2 by hundreds of percent. If negative feedback in fact dominates, then the projections of warming are overstated by an even higher factor. The relatively high stability of climate outside ice age-to- interglacial period shifts indicates that negative feedbacks dominate except when transitioning from one period to the other, and prevent runaway warming or cooling.

TheGhostofOtto1923

3 / 5 (10)May 23, 2014

So maybe it will get hot enough to trigger the next ice age.

I swear none of you has any sense of humor whatsoever. That really cracks me up like an Antarctic ice sheet.

jdswallow

2.2 / 5 (17)May 23, 2014

Farmers' Almanac More Reliable Than Warming Climate ModelsBad Science: It turns out that a 200-year-old publication for farmers beats climate-change scientists in predicting this year's harsh winter as the lowly caterpillar beats supercomputers that can't even predict the past.Last fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted above-normal temperatures from November through January across much of the continental U.S. The Farmers' Almanac, first published in 1818, predicted a bitterly cold, snowy winter.The Maine-based Farmers' Almanac's still-secret methodology includes variables such as planetary positions, sunspots, lunar cycles and tidal action. It claims an 80% accuracy rate, surely better than those who obsess over fossil fuels and CO2.The winter has stayed cold in 2014, and snowfall and snow cover are way above average. USA Today reported on Feb. 14 that there was snow on the ground in part of every state except Florida. That includes Hawaii.

jdswallow

2 / 5 (16)May 23, 2014

which was predicted here http://qz.com/163...n-worse/

Here are some FACTS & that is something MR Stumpy will not deal in.

North West Passage blocked with ice - yachts caught

http://www.sail-w...t/113788

April 19, 2014The Hudson Bay is packed solid with thick ice and seems to be supporting a healthy seal-feeding season for polar bears. Extreme cold and stormy weather has been pervasive throughout the region this year and should lead to a extended hunting season for bears on the ice surface. Here is the link of the most recent Hudson Bay ice chart from Environment Canada Ice Survey.http://churchillp...preview/

PinkElephant

4.5 / 5 (16)May 23, 2014

@OdinsAcolyte,

That is not how heat transfer and thermodynamics work.

I take it you're a fan of physics. Then you ought to be familiar with the basic thinking behind conservation laws.

Say a huge mass of cold polar air -- dubbed the "Arctic Vortex" -- makes its way from the arctic down south. Does it leave a giant vacuum behind, unfilled by anything at all? Probably not. Probably, some other air from elsewhere has to move up into the arctic, to take place of the air that departed. Where do you think that replacement air would come from? Since it wasn't in the Arctic before, probably from more southern latitudes, right? Meaning, it might be relatively warmer than the air that left the Arctic, right?

So let's look at *global averages* -- rather than regional swings. What's the net global effect?

http://www.ncdc.n...1404.gif

So one more time, what about heat transfer, thermodynamics, or anything else you might want to bring up?

jdswallow

1.9 / 5 (14)May 23, 2014

That infusion of heat, he continues, caused ripples to form in the jet stream, and it was those ripples that caused the cold weather in the northern U.S.

which was predicted here

http://qz.com/163...n-worse/

]http://qz.com/163...n-worse/[/url]

This is how MR. Stumpy's "informative" piece begins."In fact, despite the trolling of Donald Trump and other climate change deniers, global warming is probably contributing to the record cold, as counter-intuitive as that may seem. The key factor is a feedback mechanism of climate change known as Arctic amplification. Here's how to explain the nuts and bolts of it to your under-informed family and friends:(Notice the key words, probably contributing)Snow and ice are disappearing from the Arctic region at unprecedented rates, leaving behind relatively warmer open water, which is much less reflective to incoming sunlight than ice. That, among other factors, is causing the northern polar region of our planet to warm at a faster rate than the rest of the northern hemisphere. (And, just to state the obvious, global warming describes a global trend toward warmer temperatures, which doesn't preclude occasional cold-weather extremes.)"http://qz.com/163...n-worse/]http://qz.com/163...n-worse/[/url]

No way could this site be biased and just what Mr. Stumpy likes to hear, is there?

TechnoCreed

4.2 / 5 (15)May 23, 2014

And, of course, the simplest explanation for the phenomena is...

...to take a look at the global situation. Because a picture is worth a thousand words ;-)

http://www.ncdc.n...1402.gifPinkElephant

4.1 / 5 (13)May 23, 2014

I also like this one (doesn't talk about record temps, but rather just shows mean departures from the 1950-1980 baseline):

http://data.giss....;pol=reg

An interesting thing to note: the graph beneath the world map, shows 'zonal' departures from baseline. It's rather obvious that everything above 60 degrees north is stupidly warmer than the norm. Notably, that's during the *winter* -- when the north gets the least (if any!) sunlight. But of course, to the deniers it's all about the sun, or cosmic rays, or fairies, or salary, or whatever...

One can play around to achieve different types of plots like the one above, by starting at this landing page:

http://data.giss....mp/maps/

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (12)May 23, 2014

Say a huge mass of cold polar air -- dubbed the "Arctic Vortex" -- makes its way from the arctic down south. Does it leave a giant vacuum behind, unfilled by anything at all?

So one more time, what about heat transfer, thermodynamics, or anything else you might want to bring up?

 PinkElephant: I'm sure that you can give me a sensible answer about where YOUR jet stream was when these historical winters occurred & will be able to explain what CO2 had to do with these historical events.The Great Blizzard of 1888, which struck the American Northeast, became the most famous weather event in history. The ferocious storm caught major cities by surprise in mid-March, paralyzing transportation, disrupting communication, and isolating millions of people.It is believed at least 400 people died as a result of the storm. And the "Blizzard of '88" became iconic.http://history180...1888.htm THE WINTER OF 1886–1887 WAS HARD ON TH

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (11)May 23, 2014

Say a huge mass of cold polar air -- dubbed the "Arctic Vortex" -- makes its way from the arctic down south. Does it leave a giant vacuum behind, unfilled by anything at all?

So one more time, what about heat transfer, thermodynamics, or anything else you might want to bring up?

 PinkElephant: I'm sure that you can give me a sensible answer about where YOUR jet stream was when these historical winters occurred & will be able to explain what CO2 had to do with these historical events.The Great Blizzard of 1888, which struck the American Northeast, became the most famous weather event in history. The ferocious storm caught major cities by surprise in mid-March, paralyzing transportation, disrupting communication, and isolating millions of people.It is believed at least 400 people died as a result of the storm. And the "Blizzard of '88" became iconic.http://history180...1888.htm 

THE WINTER OF 1886–1887 WAS HARD ON THE WEST, ESPECIALLY MONTANA. Following a series of early November blizzards, a 10-day storm blew in on January 9, 1887. Sixteen inches of snow fell in as many hours, and temperatures dropped to 46 below zero. Cattle froze to death while standing upright and ranch hands perished in vain attempts to rescue stock.http://www.bigsky...887.html

PinkElephant

4.2 / 5 (10)May 23, 2014

@jdswallow,

I'm sure not spamming isn't your forte. But you ought to at least try it on, every now and again...

I'm sure that you can give me a sensible answer about where YOUR jet stream was when these historical winters occurred & will be able to explain what CO2 had to do with these historical events.

I'll try to disabuse you of any delusions with respect to my own humble person. I do not own the Earth's jet streams. I'm not in the possession of even one single puny little personal pocket jet stream. I am not the deity you were looking for...

As to historical blizzards, nobody knows what the jet stream was doing back then, because nobody was around to measure it. I don't see what relevance any of that has to anything, other than perhaps to emphasize that winters in general used to be a lot harsher than they are now. What is today billed as an unusually cold winter season, would have been run-of-the-mill ho-hum non-event a century ago...

Captain Stumpy

4 / 5 (13)May 23, 2014

No way could this site be biased and just what Mr. Stumpy likes to hear

@jdHooker

and so we continue to see that jd hooker still hasn't learned to read. did you miss the whole next sentence hooker-boy?

the SCIENCE int the video on the link

I specified the video for a reason

Great Blizzard of 1888

attempt at misdirection as well as sowing FUD

LEARN SOME SCIENCE, tinkerbelle.

you've already established that you believe in the farmers almanac (who also publishes the horoscope) so at this point, if you cannot specify a relevant argument, you'll be regarded as nothing but a troll... what is that old phrase? even a broken clock is correct twice a day?

I don't know why I bother even replying to you, as now you will flood us with irrelevant BS, much like Rygg, just stupider.

thanks for proving that you can't (or more likely WON'T) learn

Egleton

4.3 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

All the world is in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the Yanks.Perhaps that is where they got the Turtle model from.Adelaide hovered around 50C in December. What cold? It was not cold, it was stinking hot.

EnricM

4.7 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

I used to be fairly confident that increasing (and obviously anthropogenic) [CO₂] must lead to global warming. I still think it is more likely than not. Its been well recognized (in the community) that particulates are "the big unknown" (as well as the response of soil and tundras) but now comes 17 years of "bad predictions", a real failure of their models and silly claims that warming causes cooling.

Just a little correction: It was cool in the USA and Canada. In Europe there were the WARMEST WINTER AND SPRING ON RECORD. Read it again, slowly. How do I know it? Well, I am writing this from Holland.

Most of you guys always forget that there is "Global" in "Global Warming".

EnricM

4 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

All the world is in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the Yanks.Perhaps that is where they got the Turtle model from.Adelaide hovered around 50C in December. What cold? It was not cold, it was stinking hot.

Worse: All the World is in the USA, here in Holland,Europe we reached the 20C in February and stood around 15C during the rest of the winter (being the normal temperatures below 0).

But hey, who are we to tell the yanks what was happening in the rest of the world? If it's cold in the fridge of a guy in Texas it has to be cold in the rest of the world. I wish them good luck if they decide to visit the Sahara in Anorak ;)

runrig

4 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

Most of you guys always forget that there is "Global" in "Global Warming".

A small correction, if I may Eric....

US deniers forget.

Yep, the clue is indeed in the G word.

jdswallow

2.1 / 5 (15)May 24, 2014

thanks for proving that you can't (or more likely WON'T) learn

I thank you, Mr. Stumpy, for providing a post that sums up the IQ and the intelligence of the typical anthropogenic global warming alarmist. You present a great view into the depths of the mind of the agw alarmist and, if I might use a metaphor, that if depths of your mind were like a pond, one would not get their feet wet stepping into said body of water. You will never understand that the Farmer's Almanac, using whatever method they do, such as which way do dogs turn before they lay down or the strips on a wooly worm, provide them with better out comes than what NOAA predicted using computers that were fed the same sort of biased information you love to use in your links. NOAA use to be a very good scientific based organization before they got taken over by folks who, like you, have an agenda to promote.

"Last fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicted above-normal temperatures from November through January across much of the continental U.S. The Farmers' Almanac, first published in 1818, predicted a bitterly cold, snowy winter." So Mr. Stumpy, who was right?

jdswallow

2.1 / 5 (14)May 24, 2014

"The Norse arrived in Greenland 1,000 years ago and became very well established," says Schweger, describing the Viking farms and settlements that crowded the southeast and southwest coasts of Greenland for almost 400 years.

http://www.folio..../03.html

"Evidence of Viking Outpost Found in CanadaSharpeners may be smoking guns in quest for New World's second Viking site.Archaeologists have long known that Viking seafarers set sail for the New World around A.D. 1000. A popular Icelandic saga tells of the exploits of Leif Eriksson, a Viking chieftain from Greenland who sailed westward to seek his fortune. According to the saga, Eriksson stopped long enough on Baffin Island to walk the coast—named Helluland, an Old Norse word meaning "stone-slab land"—before heading south to a place he called Vinland."http://news.natio...utherlan

jdswallow

1.9 / 5 (14)May 24, 2014

Yep, the clue is indeed in the G word.

Tony Banton: Don't you remember all of the time and energy that folks like you have expended trying to suggest that the RWP, MWP & the LIA were confined to northern Europe because you can't explain how they occurred without the influence of your devil in the sky that you have never seen but just know he is there, CO2.

I do not want to be anything even remotely like Mr. Stumpy and just post total nonsense; so, will provide a couple of links that prove that there were warmer times on Greenland and in N.Canada.

Climate change killed off Viking settlement on Greenlandhttp://www.eartht...and/942/Norse ruins at Brattahlid.http://www.greenl...tory.htm

jdswallow

1.9 / 5 (14)May 24, 2014

As to historical blizzards, nobody knows what the jet stream was doing back then, because nobody was around to measure it. I don't see what relevance any of that has to anything, other than perhaps to emphasize that winters in general used to be a lot harsher than they are now.

"Weaker zonal wind speeds favor slower moving Rossby waves, which leads to more persistent weather patterns" ; or is it "polar vortexes" now after last winter that would not seem to end? It doesn't appear that there was a very persistent pattern in North and South Dakota in 1936 when both the record high and record low temperatures that still hold were set.

Please take note of the information given below and then tell me about drastic shifts in the climate like some want to maintain.I would certainly hope that they are able to notice the year that these records were set.

In Steele, North Dakota on July 6, 1936 the record HIGH Temperature for the state was 121⁰ F.In Parshall, N. Dakota on Feb. 15, 1936 the record LOW Temperature for the state was -60⁰F.In GANN VALLEY, South Dakota on July 5, 1936 the record Maximum Temperature for the state was 120°FIn MC INTOSH, South Dakota on February 17, 1936 the record Minimum Temperature for the state was -58°Fhttp://www.ncdc.n.../records

As Thomas Huxley famously stated: "The great tragedy in science: the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact."

orti

1.4 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

Makes perfect sense -- to a warming monger.

Rustybolts

1.7 / 5 (6)May 24, 2014

Nope, not enough ripples.

runrig

4.2 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

The positioning of the cold/air mass causes the formation of the Polar jet-stream .... and the Polar jet stream causes the positioning of the air masses.

It is chicken v egg - which comes first?

A jet is created by the warm/cold being side by side. The gretaer the contrast over a a shorter distance governs its strength ( warm/cold gradient>density gradient>pressure gradient>wind>Coriolis>jet)

Put simply though, a push from either the warm side of the jet north or a push from the cold side south will cause the jet to move in that location of the hemisphere. The two often come side by side.

Notable cold spells in W Europe and the E states are often caused by a WEAKENING in the Polar vortex. This happens first in the Strat when warm air is injected into the vortex there. A v cold vortex is hard/impossible to shift often (this last winter). As warmer air aloft reverses the winds there (to E'ly) this wind regime filters down to the Trop and reverses winds there, generating a -ve AO (HP).

runrig

4.2 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

Cont

Highs have divergent winds at the surface and with air sinking in the HP zone it has to go somewhere - so it pushes south. This push south will mean that the jet upstream has to go north - so reinforcing the "wriggle". Then the jet can become "locked" in a stationary position as the dynamics balance out in the trough/ridge train around the globe.

The very strong Polar vortex over N Canada this last winter had much different beginnings. Warm air was never able to intrude. It just got colder ( in the Strat ) and slowly moved to become quasi-stationary over N Canada.I do not know the causes of this - I do know though that it was not the cold air in the Trop that was giving the "push" - for the reasons I've outlined. The winds in the Vortex were convergent (LP) - so the Jet must have been given a push N from downstream causing the jet to move anomalously north over Alaska/Siberia (which it did) and then diving down E of the Rockies.

runrig

4.2 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

Makes perfect sense -- to a warming monger.

No it makes perfect sense if you understand Meteorology.

I do.

Captain Stumpy

4.2 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

You will never understand that the Farmer's Almanac, using whatever method they do

@jdmoron the illiterate hooker

the farmers almanac says they use sunspot activity, historical data, moon phase, tidal action and a complicated algorithm created by David Young

http://www.farmer...recasts/

the farmers almanac is as accurate as any other psychic phenomenon, and it's followers are also similar in that they are likely ready to support all successes as well as justify the failures. It is fascinating that you would also put such stock in its predictions. Guess that says a lot about your mentality: NOT SCIENTIFIC nor able to comprehend the scientific method

this is why you cannot fathom nor comprehend NOAA and modern science. it involves things that scare you, like physics.

thanks for supporting my previous assumptions about your mental capacityyou are nothing more than a trolling spammer with the mental capacity of a 13 y/o hormonal schizophrenic in a coma

Captain Stumpy

4.3 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

using whatever method they do, such as which way do dogs turn before they lay down or the strips on a wooly worm, provide them with better out comes

@jd illiterate hooker

one last parting shot: in the last ten years, I have lived in the mountains and I've bought the almanac every year. I also compare results to NOAA which I track daily. the results so far:

ACCURACY (short term= next 3 days, long term= more than 3 days)

Almanac - 0% short term forecast, 22% long term

NOAA - 100% short term forecast, 75% long term

this is accuracy tracked over the last ten years specific to my area. the accuracy of the published articles fares roughly the same (especially the dog's turning direction before laying down, which is dependent upon the dog, the environment and more factors). Your belief is the key to its success, as well as its ability to put $$$ for PR and the old timers handing faith down like herpes... or religion.

RhoidSlayer

1.3 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

is climate science math or a rorschach test ?

CONSENSUS was the earth was flat .

Maggnus

4.5 / 5 (13)May 24, 2014

is climate science math or a rorschach test ?

CONSENSUS was the earth was flat .

Oh it's definitely science, as in: "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment."

There was NEVER a consensus that the Earth was flat.

antigoracle

1.8 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

Me thinks Mother Earth must be going through menopause.

nevermark

4.2 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

Everything changes climate. Climate is always changing. So its not the least bit surprising that quickly increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere is having an effect. The primary problem is not that climate is changing as usual, but that it is changing faster than usual. When that happens ecosystems get damaged and take a long time (much longer than human generations) to recover.

We are now in the sixth mass extinction with no signs of extinction rates dropping. Fish, land animals, etc. are reducing in numbers with many species falling to the point of no possible recovery, or only recovery if somehow humans could stop development.

nevermark

4 / 5 (9)May 24, 2014

There is no name calling in the scientific paper being quoted above, only in some of the comments that follow. This paper is just a humble step in the search for knowledge, like every other paper. The scientists conclusions and their rationale are openly published precisely so they can both be vetted by others.

Valid disagreement or agreement, if any here are have enough expertise to make that call, would not need to be disrespectful to the paper or its authors.

ryggesogn2

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

The scientists conclusions and their rationale are openly published precisely so they can both be vetted by others.

Not all openly published.

Shootist

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

"Generally speaking, I'm much more of a conformist, but it happens I have strong views about climate because I think the majority is badly wrong, and you have to make sure if the majority is saying something that they're not talking nonsense." - Freeman Dyson

RealityCheck

3.8 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

@jdswallow. Give it a rest, mate. You come across either as ignorant of basic convection/heat-exchange & transport geo-mechanisms and dynamics OR as a political/religious/mercenary 'shill' with your narrow-view 'picture' of what is happening GLOBALLY as a WHOLE dynamic system in transition to new patterns/equilibriums of both heat content and air/water flows/currents. If you've ever owned an old-fashioned 'ice-box', you would be able to understand how heat flows via 'convection' works to re-distribute heat. In that process, for as long as existing/additional heat loads exist, localized 'cold-spots' develop depending on obstructions/currents as the system is trying to 'equalize' heat distribution in overall materials/shapes/distributions involved. You can see this for yourself every day, as cooler air moves to displace warmer air and causing 'weather' as water moisture content gets moved around with the air. Same in oceans, cooler waters move towards tropics and warmer water vice versa

antigoracle

1.5 / 5 (12)May 24, 2014

in the last ten years, I have lived in the mountains and I've bought the almanac every year. I also compare results to NOAA which I track daily. the results so far:ACCURACY (short term= next 3 days, long term= more than 3 days)Almanac - 0% short term forecast, 22% long termNOAA - 100% short term forecast, 75% long term

-- Cap'n Stunty

Wow, despite their abysmal record you continue to purchase the Almanac. You must be a liar or just plain stupid. So, which is it?

Egleton

4.6 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

The heat engine depends on a difference in temperature. The greater the difference the more powerful the engine.So far we still have ice at the poles; therefore as the planet warms the temperature difference increases: therefore we can expect more violent events.Enjoy.

Maggnus

4.6 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

The scientists conclusions and their rationale are openly published precisely so they can both be vetted by others.

Not all openly published.

Yes loon, they are. Show otherwise you freak of un-nature.

antigoracle

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

Wow, despite the "Science" being settled, not one of the AGW Cult's CO2 filled crystal balls saw this coming. So, the Chicken Littles take another gulp of the Kool Aid and come here to spew their ignorance.

gwrede

4 / 5 (6)May 24, 2014

"Midwest slipped back into winter, and Detroit recorded its snowiest season ever (see the photo)."

Well, being from the North, I took a hard look at the photo and I see that there is not an ounce of snow in it. (And I'd expect everybody else from my latitudes to agree.)

The white stuff is frost. (To be exact, less than half an inch of it, too.) That means that (1) there has to be a lake nearby (2) this was taken in the fall when the lake was warm and a sudden cold front passed us last night.

//////

Please, a little less sloppiness and ignorance, if I may ask.Or, downright, a little less arrogance and cavalier attitude, thank you.

Indiana_Curmudgeon

4.3 / 5 (6)May 24, 2014

Cold in a regional area of the US, California had record high temps and the rest a fairly normal winter. More moisture in the air who wouldn't expect more snow?

RhoidSlayer

1.4 / 5 (9)May 24, 2014

Oh it's definitely science, as in: "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behavior of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment."

There was NEVER a consensus that the Earth was flat.

con·sen·susk?n'sens?s/nounnoun: consensus; plural noun: consensuses

general agreement."a consensus of opinion among judges"

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge .

Oh it's definitely science, as in: "... systematic study ..."

predictable , testable , reproducable .

as in one man's theory is anothers fancy , unless you have the science to prove it .astronomy predicted the return of a comet by discovering periodicity ,millenia later , math was discovered to support a theory .

what is a 'falling star' ? a consensus from the past .

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

"2013: Middle East experiences worst snow storm since 1953.

13 Dec 2013

"The worst snow storms since 1953 have caused chaos in Israel and the Palestinian territories and exacerbated an already severe crisis among Syrian refugees"

http://www.telegr...ast.html

This is what winter is like in Ulaanbaatar, where I have been.http://www.themon...old.html

"Snow falls in VietnamUnusual weather strikes east Asia."Last updated: 16 Dec 2013 09:39Snow has fallen in Northern Vietnam for the first time in many years."http://www.aljaze...746.html

"Sub-zero arctic blast strikes US" January 6, 2014 2:01 AMhttp://news.yahoo...259.html

"REPORTS: Rare Ice, Snow Storm Halts Atlanta Traffic Through the Night"January 29, 2014; 9:01 PMhttp://www.accuwe...22639719

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

"Tropics Go Wintery! … Northern Thailand Declared Cold Disaster Zone … Snow In Vietnam … In Turkey "Animals Literally Freeze Where They Stand"!

http://notrickszo...shivers/

The volume of sea ice in the Arctic is 50 percent higher than it was last fall, satellite measurements showhttp://www.alaska...percent/

PUBLISHED DECEMBER 26, 2013"Had the ship carrying the trio of explorers in 1912, the Aurora, gotten icebound the same way the M.V. Akademik Shokalskiy did, there would have been no rescue option and certain death.http://news.natio...tl_ot_w#

"Snow closes roads in Israel, is a source of wonder in Egypt"December 13, 2013http://www.latime...nXhTlPFS

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (11)May 24, 2014

Most of you guys always forget that there is "Global" in "Global Warming".

A small correction, if I may Eric....US deniers forget.Yep, the clue is indeed in the G word.

Tony Banton (AKA, runrig): Do the events outlined in the links below qualify last winter, 2013-14, as being "global"?

"It is really a rare occasion for Fort Peck to freeze completely over prior to Christmas…."http://billingsga...156.html

"Thai government declares disaster zones as people are caught up in plummeting winter temperatures... of 15C"http://www.dailym...res.html

According to the Changrai Times the frost temperature was recorded at -1.4 degrees Celsius….""During a weekly cabinet meeting today, members were briefed on plummeting temperatures in Thailand's upper parts and the villagers' lack of warm clothes and blankets.http://www.dailym...res.html"

"Ms Pornnapha said the weather this year was colder than last year." http://www.bangko...n-region

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 24, 2014

You can see this for yourself every day, as cooler air moves to displace warmer air and causing 'weather' as water moisture content gets moved around with the air. Same in oceans, cooler waters move towards tropics and warmer water vice ve

RealityCheck: Could this below explain what you are babbling about? I sure hope so."The interaction between water temperature and salinity effects density and density determines thermohaline circulation, or the global conveyor belt. The global conveyor belt is a global-scale circulation process that occurs over a century-long time scale. Water sinks in the North Atlantic, traveling south around Africa, rising in the Indian Ocean or further on in the Pacific, then returning toward the Atlantic on the surface only to sink again in the North Atlantic starting the cycle again."

"As water travels through the water cycle, some water will become part of The Global Conveyer Belt and can take up to 1,000 years to complete this global circuit. It represents in a simple way how ocean currents carry warm surface waters from the equator toward the poles and moderate global climate." [The Global Conveyer Belt has suddenly stopped for several speculated reason in the past and caused dramatic and rapid climate changes always to the cold side; therefore, warm is preferable to cold any day]http://science.na...r-cycle/

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 25, 2014

"North West Passage - ice levels alarming for transiting yachts

'Comparison between 2012 and 2013' .

"There are more pronounced ice 'choke-points' for vessels attempting a NW Passage than in recorded history. Seven vessels have been waiting around Lancaster Sound unable to navigate south nor west while other vessels in the Western Arctic have been delayed in reaching Cambridge Bay from ice in Amundsen Gulf."http://www.sail-w...kerCID=0

Churchill ice report and summer previewApril 19, 2014The Hudson Bay is packed solid with thick ice and seems to be supporting a healthy seal-feeding season for polar bears. Extreme cold and stormy weather has been pervasive throughout the region this year and should lead to a extended hunting season for bears on the ice surface. Here is the link of the most recent Hudson Bay ice chart from Environment Canada Ice Survey.http://churchillp...preview/

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 25, 2014

"The scientists were reluctant to point directly to the cause of the striking changes in the climate. But the annual reports are typically used by the federal government to prepare for the future, and in June president Barack Obama used his climate address to direct government agenciesto begin planning for decades of warming atmosphere and rising seas."

http://www.thegua...ntpage=1

I guess NOAA is unaware of some facts; such as:Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%By CBC News | December 27, 2013 - 11:33 amhttp://www.alaska...percent/

Global Sea Ice Extent is 913,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 mean and is well above the one standard deviation mark.http://sunshineho...cketing/

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (10)May 25, 2014

It appears that once in a while even this site, briefly, gets caught telling the truth.

"The winter of 2014 was cold in the U.S., of that there was no doubt. Subzero temperatures became the norm and heating bills skyrocketed. At the time, very few who experienced it were blaming it on global warming, but that may very well have been the cause anyway, Palmer suggests—despite the fact that global temperatures haven't been rising lately."http://phys.org/n...er.html#

I wonder when NOAA will ever go back to telling the truth again like they use to before becoming a political tool."Noaa report says Arctic sea ice is disappearing at unprecedented paceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate study puts 2012 among the 10 warmest years on record"Tuesday 6 August 2013 20.30

Egleton

4.3 / 5 (11)May 25, 2014

Nice try JD Swallow.The arctic sea ice volumes trend is still down, if you read your link.I see that the Thai story is 90 days old..Have a look at a view of our planet from space. See the thin layer of air? See the vast volume of water? Which do you think can hold the most heat? So why does everyone obsess about the temperature of the air?.I find no comfort in your links.

mooster75

4.6 / 5 (9)May 25, 2014

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge .

Don't be silly. Sailors of all people knew the earth was at least curved, if not round. They were afraid of sailing too far from land because, prior to certain navigational advancements, losing sight of land meant you were lost.Maggnus

4.5 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

con·sen·sus k?n'sens?s/ noun: consensus; plural noun: consensuses:general agreement."a consensus of opinion among judges"

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge .

At least you got the definition right! You do, of course, have some support for your fictional claim that a concensus of sailers mutinied for "fear of sailing off it's(sic) edge"?

as in one man's theory is anothers fancy , unless you have the science to prove it .astronomy predicted the return of a comet by discovering periodicity ,millenia later , math was discovered to support a theory .

what is a 'falling star' ? a consensus from the past .

A thing that is not known or not understood cannot, by definition, be the subject of "concensus". There was no consensus as to what a falling star was, however you might define the word. You are grasping at straws.

Maggnus

4.6 / 5 (9)May 25, 2014

jdswallow = gish-gallop. 7 posts in a row, all of them containing quote mines and misrepresented data, combined with multiple claims of conspiracy. No wonder he and his ilk have become irrelevant to the conversation.

Captain Stumpy

4.5 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

You must be a liar or just plain stupid

@antigoracle

didnt say I bought it FOR me, did I? Wife likes it... guess you wouldn't know about something like that

for most of the mans existance , the earth was "flat as far as the eye could see" , and men mutinied in fear of sailing off it's edge

@RhoidSlayer

Actually, most sailors were aware that the earth was not "flat" (See mooster75 comments) which is where the "sailing off the edge" comes from. They knew the first visible part of a ship on the horizon was the masts, NOT the ships hull... they knew that the earth was curved from observation. You couldn't be a sailor very long and NOT observe this fact, which is why so many feared losing sight of land.

jdswallow

1 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

We are now in the sixth mass extinction with no signs of extinction rates dropping. Fish, land animals, etc. are reducing in numbers with many species falling to the point of no possible recovery, or only recovery if somehow humans could stop development.

nevermark : Are you sure about what you are saying? Where are your FACTS?

"The poison dart frog Ranitomeya amazonica is one of more than 1,200 new species of plants and vertebrates discovered in the Amazon rain forest between 1999 and 2009, the international conservation group WWF announced Tuesday in a new report highlighting the region's biodiversity.http://news.natio...ictures/

"NAGOYA, Aichi, Japan, October 26, 2010 (ENS) – At least 1,200 new species have been discovered in the Amazon ecosystem, at an average rate of one every three days during the decade from 1999 through 2009, the global conservation organization WWF revealed today in a new report.This is a greater number of species than the combined total of new species found over a similar 10-year period in other areas of high biological diversity – including Borneo, the Congo Basin and the Eastern Himalayas, WWF said in the report, "Amazon Alive!: A Decade of Discoveries 1999-2009."Presented to delegates from 193 countries at the UN Convention on Biodiversity in Nagoya, the WWF report details the discoveries of 39 mammals, 16 birds, 55 reptiles, 216 amphibians, 257 fish and 637 plants – all new to science."http://www.ens-ne...-01.html

jdswallow

1 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

jdswallow = gish-gallop. 7 posts in a row, all of them containing quote mines and misrepresented data, combined with multiple claims of conspiracy. No wonder he and his ilk have become irrelevant to the conversation.

Maggnus: Please take the time to point out what that is relevant to this conversation, or another, for that matter, in the last two post that you present when the topic is this:"(Phys.org) —Tim Palmer, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Oxford in the U.K. has published a somewhat controversial Perspective piece in the journal Science. In it, he theorizes that heavy thunderstorms in the western tropical Pacific (due to global warming) this past winter caused changes to the flow pattern of the jet stream, which resulted in the "polar vortex" that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014."

I doubt that you are able to discover the misinformation in just this short excerpt: "that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014." The truth would be nice to see in that it was more than just the northern part and started far longer ago than the first 4 months of 2014.

jdswallow

1.4 / 5 (9)May 25, 2014

Nice try JD Swallow.The arctic sea ice volumes trend is still down, if you read your link.I see that the Thai story is 90 days old.

.I find no comfort in your links.

Egleton: Just how long do you think that record cold temperature can last in the tropics, where it is unusual until recently? At Doi Angkhang , Thailand there are prominently displayed photos of flowers with ice cycles on them that were taken in November 22, 2006, first time ever for that to happen.

The ocean has always held heat and as I explained to RealityCheck a few post down from yours, if you feel like learning something, for a change, you can bring up the links and read the information. How can the arctic ice trend be down when "Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%"? Another proven point is that cold water absorbs CO2 while warm water gives it up and therefore the atmospheric additions of CO2 come up to 800 years after warming events in the climate. This also runs counter to warmest now claiming that the ocean is turning acidic. It is hard for them to keep their latest delusion straight. Believe what you want and what makes you happy & gives you comfort about your boogie man in the sky that has never been proven to have anything to do with the climate of today's earth.

runrig

4.5 / 5 (8)May 25, 2014

pandora4real

5 / 5 (4)May 25, 2014

That's really odd from a UK resident. In fact the UK winter was warmer and wetter than normal, quite warm in Scandinavia. It was just the reverse the last few years. That's what I had been wondering about. Do warm winters in higher latitudes push the polar vortex away resulting in a colder winter on the other side of it?

pandora4real

5 / 5 (6)May 25, 2014

I know when my cup of hot coffee retains heat in the morning, I look forward to that crisp icy beverage hitting my lips and chilling me to the bone.

You accept your cup of coffee as a model for the ocean. Classic case of UCD. https://www.faceb...46853678

RealityCheck

4 / 5 (8)23 hours ago

@jdswallow.

RealityCheck, Could this below explain what you are babbling about? I sure hope so."The interaction between water temperature and salinity effects density and density determines thermohaline circulation, or the global conveyor belt. The global conveyor belt is a global-scale circulation process that occurs over a century-long time scale. Water sinks in the North Atlantic, traveling south around Africa, rising in the Indian Ocean or further on in the Pacific, then returning toward the Atlantic on the surface only to sink again in the North Atlantic starting the cycle again."

"As water travels through the water cycle, some water will become part of The Global Conveyer Belt and can take up to 1,000 years to complete this global circuit.

No, mate. What's the matter with you? It is about "weather", remember? Cold winter etc? Remember?

How many dishonest Troll/Shill "strawmen" can you make and post in one day!

You evaded the point I made. Troll/Shill. Nasty.

jdswallow

1.5 / 5 (8)21 hours ago

@jdswallow. Give it a rest, mate. You come across either as ignorant of basic convection/heat-exchange & transport geo-mechanisms and dynamics OR as a political/religious/mercenary 'shill' with your narrow-view 'picture' of what is happening GLOBALLY as a WHOLE dynamic system in transition to new patterns/equilibriums of both heat content and air/water flows/currents. If you've ever owned an old-fashioned 'ice-box', you would be able to understand how heat flows via 'convection' works to re-distribute heat. In that process, for as long as existing/additional heat loads exist, localized 'cold-spots' develop depending on obstructions/currents as the system is trying to 'equalize' heat distribution in overall materials/shapes/distributions involved. You can see this for yourself every day, as cooler air moves to displace warmer air and causing 'weather' as water moisture content gets moved around with the air. Same in oceans, cooler waters move towards tropics and warmer water vice versa

So, RealityCheck, all that you posted above was about "weather"? You sure could have fooled me with your double talking nonsense and then you allude to the fact that anyone that gives you valid facts that contest your delusional ideas; then they are a "troll". How many senseless, say nothing about anything, post can you make in one day?

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)21 hours ago

@jdswallow,

At least 1,200 new species have been discovered in the Amazon ecosystem

Right, since we haven't yet discovered all the species out there, means species extinction rates aren't sky-high and accelerating:

http://www.biolog..._crisis/

Quite some logic there, sparky.

Since you trolls appear incapable of reading links other people post (though you have quite a habit of flooding discussion threads with your own link noise...), I'll quote it for you:

Although extinction is a natural phenomenon, it occurs at a natural "background" rate of about one to five species per year. Scientists estimate we're now losing species at 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate, with literally dozens going extinct every day [1]. It could be a scary future indeed, with as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species possibly heading toward extinction by mid-century [2].

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)21 hours ago

"that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014." The truth would be nice to see in that it was more than just the northern part and started far longer ago than the first 4 months of 2014.

You might want to check out the links to charts runrig so dutifully and helpfully assembled for you (5 posts above, as I write this.) The truth *would* set you free, if you weren't so obviously scared to death of both freedom and truth...

How can the arctic ice trend be down when "Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%"?

It's up from a historic record low, dimwit. Even having recovered 50% from an abnormal low, it's still lower than normal -- and the long-term trend of decreasing ice coverage and volume continues uninterrupted:

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)20 hours ago

cold water absorbs CO2 while warm water gives it up

True, only when CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere aren't otherwise being driven by another source. With ever-more CO2 being added to the atmosphere through fossil fuel combustion, the absorption/sequestration by oceans is being overwhelmed by anthropogenic emissions. CO2 concentrations in [sea]water aren't just a function of the water's temperature; they're a function of the partial pressure of CO2 both in its dissolved phase and in the air column above the water. The two must balance.

and therefore the atmospheric additions of CO2 come up to 800 years after warming events in the climate

There's no "therefore" here, because the current GW isn't naturally caused -- it's anthropogenic, therefore the 'A' in AGW -- and so this time around, CO2 precedes the warming.

This also runs counter to warmest now claiming that the ocean is turning acidic.

Ocean acidification is a fact, and "runs counter" nothing.

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)20 hours ago

Notice how little white to blue Colder than ave there is in the NH.The USA copped the majority of the cold on offer in the NH this last winter.Which is what lies under the Polar vortex of course. It being centred over N Canada for the majority of the period.See how warm is Europe east through Russia to Alaska and also the Arctic.

Tony Banton (AKA, runrig):They all show a Zonal Mean of down, especially these two. Also note where the"Note: Gray areas signify missing data." is located. It is in the colder regions, naturally.There are exactly three weather stations used by GISS that are north of 80 degrees. Alert on Ellesmere Island is one of them. One other is a Russian station on Hayes Island in the Franz Josef Archipelago & it is getting cooler in the summer. The third is Nord on northern Greenland. It is getting warmer in all seasons.

GISS Surface Temperature Analysishttp://data.giss....;pol=rob

GISS Surface Temperature Analysishttp://data.giss....;pol=rob

I realize that Hansen has retired but this is the legacy that he left behind at GISS."Why Hansen Had To Corrupt The Temperature Record"http://stevengodd...-record/

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)20 hours ago

Quite some logic there, sparky.

Since you trolls appear incapable of reading links other people post (though you have quite a habit of flooding discussion threads with your own link noise...), I'll quote it for you:

Although extinction is a natural phenomenon, it occurs at a natural "background" rate of about one to five species per year. Scientists estimate we're now losing species at 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate, with literally dozens going extinct every day [1]. It could be a scary future indeed, with as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species possibly heading toward extinction by mid-century [2].

"GLOBAL WARMING AND LIFE ON EARTHGlobal warming presents the gravest threat to life on Earth in all of human history."

This above makes your site that you seem so proud of somewhat suspect, as well as what they maintain about the polar bears.In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the 'pause' in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues.http://www.thegwp...ntinues/

"The iconic polar bear, fast losing the sea-ice habitat beneath its feet, has become a broadly recognized symbol of the harm global warming is causing in the fragile Arctic…"http://www.biolog...dex.html

Global population of polar bears has increased by 2,650-5,700 since 2001http://polarbears...ce-2001/

When will you people ever deal with the truth?

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)20 hours ago

When will you people ever deal with the truth?

We are. You aren't. The polar bear populations are on the rise because they're a protected species since the 1970's, not because there's no warming. The long-term impacts on that species aren't slated to be happening today, or tomorrow, dimwit. The danger zone for that species is a century into the future. The trajectory, however, is unstoppable. But polar bears aren't the only species under threat. When climate changes significantly and abruptly, all kinds of species die off. That's part of what's causing the present, ongoing, and accelerating mass extinction. The other part being the stress put on natural habitats and ecosystems by human industrial, agricultural, and land-development activities -- including land use changes, pollution, transplantation of invasive species, water diversion and watershed landscape alteration, over-fishing, over-harvesting, monocultures, and so on and on and on.

jdswallow

1.8 / 5 (5)19 hours ago

The truth *would* set you free, if you weren't so obviously scared to death of both freedom and truth...

How can the arctic ice trend be down when "Arctic Sea Ice Volume Up 50%"?

It's up from a historic record low, dimwit. Even having recovered 50% from an abnormal low, it's still lower than normal -- and the long-term trend of decreasing ice coverage and volume continues uninterrupted:

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/

The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole.http://www.navalh...th-pole/

1969: the SS Manhattan, a reinforced supertanker sent to test the viability of the passage for the transport of oil, made the passage. The route was deemed not to be cost effective.http://www.fcpnor...xplorers

Cache of historical Arctic sea ice maps discoveredArctic Sea ice data collected by DMI 1893-1961http://wattsupwit...covered/

It would be great if you could show some intelligence and not the normal alarmist mentality by refraining from the name calling when you know that the facts are not on your side.

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)19 hours ago

It's up from a historic record low, dimwit. Even having recovered 50% from an abnormal low, it's still lower than normal -- and the long-term trend of decreasing ice coverage and volume continues uninterrupted:

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/

PinkElephant: Please be advised that these charts only go back to April 1979; therefore, logical people wonder what the ice was like when this happened:

AMUNDSEN EXPEDITION1. June 16, 1903http://www.pbs.or...-nf.html

"Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot…"http://www.sott.n...gs-Melt-

"Not only did the Skate surface in virtually ice-free water at the North Pole, but the weather was mild enough that crewmen went out to chip a bit of ice off the sub's hull."http://www.ihatet...ubmarine

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

PinkElephant: Please be advised that these charts only go back to April 1979

jdswallow: please be advised that your 50% recovery claim only goes back to *last year*. Whereas longer-term trends are available starting in April 1979.

refraining from the name calling

Why would I do that, when you work so hard for it, and so richly deserve it?

therefore, logical people wonder what the ice was like when this happened:

Logical people could go and Google it. There have been studies done, using various proxies, that reconstruct historical polar ice cover. Must I do it for you, or are you perhaps capable of doing the search on your own? Oh, whom am I kidding... Here you go, boobie:

http://tamino.wor...tic-ice/

And in case you are incapable of following references (again, whom am I kidding?):

http://www.nature...581.htmlhttp://www.nature..._F3.html

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)19 hours ago

When will you people ever deal with the truth?

We are. You aren't. The polar bear populations are on the rise because they're a protected species since the 1970's, not because there's no warming. The long-term impacts on that species aren't slated to be happening today, or tomorrow, dimwit. The danger zone for that species is a century into the future. The trajectory, however, is unstoppable. But polar bears aren't the only species under threat.

PinkElephant: You really do not know what you prevaricate about, do you?"Harry Flaherty, chair of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board in the capital of Iqaluit, says the polar bear population in the region, along the Davis Strait, has doubled during the past 10 years. He questions the official figures, which are based to a large extent on helicopter surveys.Forty years ago, old-timers living in the area around Hudson Bay were lucky to see a polar bear, Nirlungayuk says. "Now there are bears living as far south as James Bay."

"In the Western Hudson Bay area, where harvest quotas were reduced by 80 percent four years ago, communities are complaining about the number of polar bears. "Now people can look out the window and see as many as 20 polar bears at the ice-flow edge," Flaherty says."

Both Nirlungayuk and Flaherty ridicule media claims that the polar bear is threatened or on the verge of extinction.

Adds Flaherty: "At the end of the day, the King of the North will always be here. When we hear that polar bears are headed towards extinction, we just kind of smile at ourselves."http://www.examin...cals-say

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

You really do not know what you prevaricate about, do you?

Oh please, stop putting me upon such a pedestal. I could never live up to your level -- nor would I wish to.

Both Nirlungayuk and Flaherty ridicule media claims that the polar bear is threatened or on the verge of extinction.

On the verge of extinction, they say? Ridiculous.

Adds Flaherty: "At the end of the day, the King of the North will always be here. When we hear that polar bears are headed towards extinction, we just kind of smile at ourselves."

Of course, you won't be around to cry about it at the end of the century. But who cares to think long-term, when the end of a day is all that matters to dimwits the world over...

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)19 hours ago

There have been studies done, using various proxies, that reconstruct historical polar ice cover. Must I do it for you, or are you perhaps capable of doing the search on your own? Oh, whom am I kidding... Here you go, boobie:

http://tamino.wor...tic-ice/

Whatever, PinkElephant, goes with proxies and discounts the actual Ice conditions in the immediate past that I presented you with, that is the way you lie your way around all of these subjects, like Mann & his hockey stick. You are certainly not bright enough or can think and imagine that even with your phony "proxies" that the earth is still coming out of the Little Ice Age or it would not have ended. When do you believe conditions were better, during the LIA or after the ice retreated and opened up land previously covered in ice? You are so naive & dumbstruck by your belief in this CO2 hoax that you will never understand the truth. Just what kind of a climate do you want, as though you have any control over it, al all, & if you did, what sacrifices would you make to achieve your utopia? I know that it would be the same type of hypocrisy that we see in other proponents of your hoax, such as Al Gore, and others who do not change one thing in their life style to change what you stupidly believe to be true.

Al Gore Leaves Car Runninghttp://www.newsma...EhwArsoA

http://www.time.c...5kOyyXfx

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)19 hours ago

the actual Ice conditions in the immediate past that I presented you with

You're full of BS like that. Yes, in any given year there will be swings up and down -- in temperature, in ice cover, in precipitation, in whatever you want. The Russians have a term for ice-free areas of open water in the arctic - polynya - and that, particularly at the North Pole, would be usually caused by the wind and currents pushing the ice around (piling it up in some places, leaving open water in others.) You will cite examples of a cold snap here and there, or a warm spell here and there in the past, and *completely ignore* the *averages*. You will wax on and off about *outliers*, while remaining totally blind to the *trend*. You are a classic case study in pathological inability to see the forest for the trees.

Just what kind of a climate do you want

One that is as stable as possible, and as close as possible to the Holocene climate optimum. Look it up, if you are capable (oh, whatever)

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

Maggnus: Please take the time to point out what that is relevant to this conversation, or another, for that matter, in the last two post that you present when the topic is this:"(Phys.org) —Tim Palmer, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Oxford in the U.K. has published a somewhat controversial Perspective piece in the journal Science. In it, he theorizes that heavy thunderstorms in the western tropical Pacific (due to global warming) this past winter caused changes to the flow pattern of the jet stream, which resulted in the "polar vortex" that chilled the northern part of North America for the first four months of 2014."

In what you said? Nothing.

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)18 hours ago

what sacrifices would you make to achieve your utopia

I'd pay 5x more for electricity at home, and I'd pay 3x more for my car's fuel -- without a problem. My salary would more than allow that, and I'd suggest anyone whose salary isn't up to the task, needs to have a chat with their boss. I'd also prefer buying things made locally - because it'd be so much cheaper due to reduced transportation overhead (because of proper accounting of emissions), and I'd prefer buying things that last a long time rather than needing replacement every other month. I'd recycle much more, because it would actually be a lot more profitable for companies to use recycled materials than to extract/synthesize from scratch. I'd live closer to my work, get around more by walking and biking, and public transport; I'd move into a dwelling just big enough, with high-quality insulation and more efficient appliances... but I've already done those things. I'm also a very frugal and reluctant consumer.

You?

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

PinkElephant: Not that anything that does not fit you delusional prevaricating narrative, but I lived in Alaska for 24 years and 14 of those years were above the Arctic Circle and have seen the various animals of the area while you can't even find it on a map. I know it goes beyond your poor ability to reason things out; but, why do you think that these temperatures for Alaska still stand as the all-time records?

Alaska–80–62Jan. 23, 1971Prospect Creek Camp

Alaska10038June 27, 1915Fort Yukonhttp://www.infopl...html>

How about this one?The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced today that the record holder for the hottest temperature ever recorded on the planet had been changed. A record dating back to 1922 in El Azizia, Libya was deemed invalid and thus the honor now falls on a temperature recorded in Death Valley, California in 1913.http://www.examin...lifornia

Notice the dates, pe?

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

Tony Banton (AKA, runrig):

What do you think you prove by giving his name JDspreadsBS? Everyone here knows who he is dimbulb, he told us months ago and has never hid it.

They all show a Zonal Mean of down, especially these two. Also note where the"Note: Gray areas signify missing data." is located. It is in the colder regions, naturally.

Oh, right, the "conspiracy".

There are exactly three weather stations used by GISS that are north of 80 degrees. Alert on Ellesmere Island is one of them. One other is a Russian station on Hayes Island in the Franz Josef Archipelago & it is getting cooler in the summer. The third is Nord on northern Greenland. It is getting warmer in all seasons.

A lie.

http://data.giss....ist.txt.

Gish-galloping denialist claiming conspiracy. An ignoble loon.

Maggnus

4.2 / 5 (5)18 hours ago

n a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the 'pause' in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues

A .64 dT C over the 1950 - 1981 average (where dT = change in temperature & C =Celsius) is a "pause"? Wow you are really taken in by the crap portrayed with sciency sounding words at that denialist site aren't you? Have you EVER tried to think for yourself? Rhetorical question of course.

Global population of polar bears has increased by 2,650-5,700 since 2001When will you people ever deal with the truth?

Nice sound bite JDspreadsBS! Here is the ACTUAL truth!

http://www.canadi...ears.asp

Can you deal with that?

PinkElephant

4.4 / 5 (7)18 hours ago

why do you think that these temperatures for Alaska still stand as the all-time records...How about this one?

Oh, I don't know. Wait, could it be... because they are *outliers*? Naw it couldn't be, not possibly, not ever. 'cuz that'd mean basic fundamentals of statistics are actually worth something?

Speaking of statistics, you wouldn't have happened to look up the *trends* for record highs and record lows, would you have? No, of course not. You're incapable. Here, I'll help you once again (why I keep doing it, is really beyond me):

https://www2.ucar...cross-us

That some hi-temp records in Alaska and elsewhere haven't been broken *yet*, is a fool's comfort.

http://www.skepti...ows.html

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole.

Misrepresentation; from a crew member:

"The Ice at the polar ice cap is an average of 6-8 feet thick, but with the wind and tides the ice will crack and open into large polynyas (areas of open water), these areas will refreeze over with thin ice. We had sonar equipment that would find these open or thin areas to come up through, thus limiting any damage to the submarine. The ice would also close in and cover these areas crushing together making large ice ridges both above and below the water. We came up through a very large opening in 1958 that was 1/2 mile long and 200 yards wide. The wind came up and closed the opening within 2 hours."

The truth (again, appallingly easy to find!) http://tamino.wor...mselves/

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)18 hours ago

PinkElephant: Please be advised that these charts only go back to April 1979; therefore, logical people wonder what the ice was like when this happened:

AMUNDSEN EXPEDITION1. June 16, 1903http://www.pbs.or...-nf.html

"Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot…"http://www.sott.n...gs-Melt-

"Not only did the Skate surface in virtually ice-free water at the North Pole, but the weather was mild enough that crewmen went out to chip a bit of ice off the sub's hull."http://www.ihatet...ubmarine

More misrepresented quote mining, data mining and gish-gallop. "Logical people" use truth, not misrepresentations, to present evidence.

Maggnus

4.2 / 5 (5)17 hours ago

I know that it would be the same type of hypocrisy that we see in other proponents of your hoax, such as Al Gore, and others who do not change one thing in their life style to change what you stupidly believe to be true.

Al Gore Leaves Car Running

Aww boobie doesn't like some US politician! Isn't that cute, he is a denialist because he doesn't like Al Gore and the Republican party he represents. Maybe you should try accepting the science and use your political crybabying to help the Democrats win. Or the Tea Party. Or whoever.

Denialists, so predictable. Science is against them, so it must be because US political figures say something.

RealityCheck

3.9 / 5 (7)17 hours ago

@jdswallow.

So, RealityCheck, all that you posted above was about "weather"? You sure could have fooled me with your double talking nonsense and then you allude to the fact that anyone that gives you valid facts that contest your delusional ideas; then they are a "troll". How many senseless, say nothing about anything, post can you make in one day?

No, mate. The CONTEXT my post was made in was your and others' mistakingly using 'cold events' as 'proof' that global warming is not so. I pointed out in my example 'ice box' that even as the warming 'ice' melts in an ice box due to heat load ingress, there are 'cold spots' formed in various 'spots' depending on where the cooled air is going as it makes its way from the ice to the other contents/location in/of the ice box.

The point was: ice WARMING=cooled AIR; and 'colder winters' wherever colder AIR goes FROM the warmed ice because GW changes air flows/patterns EXTREMES.

Can you stop mercenary/political trolling/shilling now? :)

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)14 hours ago

Antarctica; Vanda Station, Scott Coast, Jan. 5, 1974 (59F):

South Pole, Dec. 27, 1978, (7.5F).

Highest average annual mean temperature (world): Dallol, Ethiopia (Oct. 1960 Dec. 1966), 94° F.

Longest hot spell (world): Marble Bar, W. Australia, 100° F (or above) for 162 consecutive days, Oct. 30, 1923 to Apr. 7, 1924. Notice anything regarding the dates of these records? Anyone heard of the dust bowl & wasn't that in the 30s

http://www.infopl...375.html

This link shows the same records.http://www.worldf...emes.php

These records do change, such as in this instance.Consequently, the WMO assessment is that the official highest recorded surface temperature of 56.7°C (134°F) was measured on 10 July 1913 at Greenland Ranch (Death Valley), California, USA. Full details of the assessment are given in the on-line issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (http://dx.doi.org...0093.1).http://www.wmo.in..._en.html

jdswallow

1.7 / 5 (6)14 hours ago

You will cite examples of a cold snap here and there, or a warm spell here and there in the past, and *completely ignore* the *averages*. You will wax on and off about *outliers*, while remaining totally blind to the *trend*. You are a classic case study in pathological inability to see the forest for the trees.

PinkElephant: This is exactly what I will do. I will ask you to disprove that these are the standing high temperature records and if you can not come up with actual, factual, records that they have been broken, then I will ask you what that does to your stupid hypotheses of a planet with a fever.

What follows are world record high temperatures: World (Africa) El Azizia, Libya; Sept. 13, 1922, (136F):North America (U.S.), Death Valley, Calif.; July 10, 1913 (134F);Asia; Tirat Tsvi, Israel, June 21, 1942, (129F):Australia ,Cloncurry, Queensland; Jan. 16, 1889 (128F):Europe, Seville, Spain,Aug. 4, 1881 (122F):South America, Rivadavia, Argentina; Dec. 11, 1905 (120F):Canada,Midale and Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan, Canada; July 5, 1937 (113F):Oceania;Tuguegarao, Philippines, April 29, 1912 (108F):Persian Gulf (sea-surface): Aug. 5, 1924 (96F):

PinkElephant

4.3 / 5 (6)11 hours ago

You really are an epic failure at math, aren't you jdswallow? Never took any statistics, at all? Never even learned to calculate averages, to say nothing of standard deviations or any such thing?

All right, if you insist on pursuing your retarded line of "reasoning", let's play that game:

http://en.wikiped...recorded

wait for it...

Captain Stumpy

4.4 / 5 (7)11 hours ago

I will ask you to disprove that these are the standing high temperature records and if you can not come up with actual, factual, records that they have been broken, then I will ask you what that does to your stupid hypotheses of a planet with a fever

@jd hooker

I cant believe you posted such a profoundly stupid statement!

and with this comment you have shown that

1- you have NO F'ing IDEA what the word AVERAGE means

2- YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW TO GET AN AVERAGE

3- you are clueless as to why a RISE in AVERAGE temperatures is a bad thing

4- you have NO IDEA what climate is

5- you have no idea about how the scientific method works

6- you have no idea what you are talking about

7- you have no idea what WE are talking about

8- you are throwing SPAM out for TROLLING purposes

9- you have the IQ of a rotten carrot shoved up the rear end of a roadkill rabbit

here is a SIMPLE example:

3+7+7+7+7+7+7+7+7+7=66/10 =6.6

3+9+5+5+5+5+5+5+5+5=52/10 =5.2

NOW do you get it?

now do you understand just how embarassingly stupid and profoundly idiotic your statement is?

GLOBAL temps are based upon the AVERAGE of ALL temps, so an outlier is meaningless if the AVERAGE raises due to a LARGE NUMBER OF HIGH TEMP DAYS even if those temps never break the record! FFS

PinkElephant

4.2 / 5 (5)11 hours ago

Firstly, I do find these somewhat amusing:

this temperature of 57.8 °C (136 °F), registered on September 13, 1922, is currently considered to have been a recorder's error).[81] Christopher C. Burt, the weather historian writing for Weather Underground who shepherded the Libya reading's 2012 disqualification, believes that the 1913 Death Valley reading is "a myth", and is at least four or five degrees Fahrenheit too high,[4] as do other weather historians Dr. Arnold Court and William Taylor Reid.[82] Burt proposes that the highest reliably recorded temperature on Earth is still at Death Valley, but is instead 53.9 °C (129 °F) recorded five times: 20 July 1960, 18 July 1998, 20 July 2005, 7 July 2007, and 30 June 2013.

On 16 January 1889, a temperature of 53 °C (128 °F) was recorded at Cloncurry, Queensland. It was measured with a non-standard thermometer, so it is unknown if this reading was valid or not.

But wait, there's more...

PinkElephant

4.3 / 5 (6)11 hours ago

So how about these outliers over here:

Greenland 25.9 °C (78.6 °F) Maniitsoq 2013-07-30Japan 41.0 °C (105.8 °F) Shimanto, Kōchi 2013-08-12Austria 40.5 °C (104.9 °F) Bad Deutsch-Altenburg 2013-08-08Slovenia 40.8 °C (105.4 °F) Cerklje ob Krki 2013-08-08Germany 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) Gärmersdorf bei Amberg / Karlsruhe / March (Breisgau) / Freiburg 1983-07-27 / 2003-08-09 / 2003-08-13 / 2013-07-27Morocco 49.6 °C (121.3 °F) Marrakech 2012-07-17Kuwait 53.6 °C (128.5 °F) Sulaibya 2012-07-31Czech Republic 40.4 °C (104.7 °F) Dobřichovice, Prague-West District 2012-08-20Moldova 42.4 °C(108.3 °F) Falesti 2012-08-07Montenegro 44.8 °C (112.6 °F) Podgorica & Danilovgrad 2007-08-16 & 2012-08-08Iraq 53.0 °C (127.4 °F) Ali Air Base, Nasiriyah 2011-08-03South Pole −12.3 °C (9.9 °F) Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station 2011-12-25

I *could* go on... but golly gee willikers, don't you notice something about them thar dates? I mean, wowzers! Yowza! Auuuuuga! Hubba-hubba! Wheeeee-whoooieeee!

Maggnus

4.3 / 5 (6)10 hours ago

PinkElephant: This is exactly what I will do. I will ask you to disprove that these are the standing high temperature records and if you can not come up with actual, factual, records that they have been broken, then I will ask you what that does to your stupid hypotheses of a planet with a fever.

What follows are world record high temperatures: World (Africa) El Azizia, Libya; Sept. 13, 1922, (136F):North America (U.S.), Death Valley, Calif.; July 10, 1913 (134F);Asia; Tirat Tsvi, Israel, June 21, 1942, (129F):Australia ,Cloncurry, Queensland; Jan. 16, 1889 (128F):Europe, Seville, Spain,Aug. 4, 1881 (122F):South America, Rivadavia, Argentina; Dec. 11, 1905 (120F):Canada,Midale and Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan, Canada; July 5, 1937 (113F):Oceania;Tuguegarao, Philippines, April 29, 1912 (108F):Persian Gulf (sea-surface): Aug. 5, 1924 (96F):

Cherry picking at its finest!

Maggnus

5 / 5 (3)2 hours ago

Which comments would those be?

You know, where they say that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will result in a greenhouse effect, causing the planet to warm. Have you come out of a coma recently?

The ones were the scientists advocate that their study is the correct measure?

Maybe, hard to tell what you're trying to ask here

And when you say climate change is the reason, what exactly is the mechanism of implementation?

That's that "adding CO2" part again.

To simply say that it is climate change and leave it at that is the same as publishing one of these ridiculous studies that refuse to analyze the actual underlying CAUSE of climate change and simply imply it is of human origins.

Oh you mean the "cause" as in adding giga-tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere thus increasing its greenhouse effect, thereby warming the climate and triggering climate change? Yea, seems to make sense.

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