Turkey and Turkmenistan pledge co-operation on the delivery of Turkmen gas to Europe through Turkey in an attempt to break Russian hegemony.
In an effort to reduce dependency on Russian natural gas and position itself as a key player amid rising European energy demands, Turkey recently agreed to increase its energy co-operation with Turkmenistan.
After a meeting last month in Ankara between President Abdullah Gul and his Turkmen counterpart Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Gul told reporters that Turkey is determined to deliver Turkmen gas to European markets.
While details of the agreement are unclear, the addition of Turkmen gas flowing through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) is expected to benefit Turkey, which currently obtains about 60 percent of its natural gas from Russia. The TANAP pipeline is under construction and is scheduled to be operational by 2018.
Turkmenistan is the world's fourth-largest natural gas producing country, with 32 trillion cubic metres of natural gas reserves, which is equal to 12 percent of the world's natural gas. Hasan Ozertem, an analyst with the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), told SES Türkiye that Turkey has been eager to access Turkmen gas for a long time.
"The starting volume of Azerbaijani gas that will be flowing through TANAP will be 16 billion cubic metres annually in 2018. In 2026 the gas capacity is expected to hit 31 billion cubic metres. Now with the latest co-operation Turkey plans to fill the gap with the Turkmen gas," he said.
Turkmenistan, which has the capacity to produce 80 billion cubic metres annually, is considered one of the most important countries that could loosen Russia's grip in the energy field while reducing European dependence on Russia in supplying their energy demands.
Taner Yildiz, Turkey's natural gas and energy minister, commenting on co-operation with Turkmenistan on May 29th, said Ankara will play an important role in carrying Caspian Sea energy resources to Europe through TANAP, including the potential addition of Turkmen gas.
"Turkey has an obligation to use its geographical advantages the right way," Yildiz said. "The countries located on the east side of Turkey possess 65 percent of the world's entire energy resources while the Western consumers constitute 65 percent of the world's total consumption."
Turkey has the obligation to spread these resources to the entire region, he added.
Yildiz also said that the latest developments in Ukraine became a threat to the concept of unifying energy resources in the region.
"We have been improving our efforts on that issue," he said.
Energy experts agreed that the main obstacle that could prevent the flow of Turkmen gas through Turkey to Europe is the unpredictable attitudes of Russia and Iran.
Russia, in order to not protect its hegemony in supplying energy to Europe, is expected to seek to restrain Turkmenistan's co-operation with Turkey by exploiting the undetermined status of the Caspian Sea, experts said.
"In order to deliver the Turkmen gas to Europe through TANAP, an underwater pipeline should be built below the Caspian sea," Ozertem said. "I have doubts that Russia will allow the construction of such a pipeline."
Experts agreed that after the Russian annexation of Crimea, the conditions and equilibrium in the region has changed significantly in Turkey's favour.
"Turkey will remain at the centre of the interests of European countries and will also be a potential partner of Russia as well," Sinan Ogan, the head of Turkish Centre for International Relations and Strategic Analysis (TURKSAM), told SES Türkiye, adding that if Russia's South Stream pipeline is not permitted to transmit gas through Bulgaria, it would inevitably pass through Turkey.
South Stream's plans include transporting Russian natural gas through the Black Sea to Bulgaria and then to Western Europe. The EU contends that the project violates EU laws on competitors' access to the pipeline and has challenged agreements between Russia and six members of the bloc that would host onshore sections of the project: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Slovenia.
Recently, Bulgaria Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski ordered the suspension of the South Stream pipeline project on the recommendation of the EU.
Hanife Cetin, an expert on energy studies with TURKSAM, pointed out that Western countries have been pushing hard to break the dominance of Russian natural gas and have been trying to sanction Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine.
"We have been witnessing that Russia, in the pursuit of new markets and new vendors, headed toward the East. Moscow approached China and declared that it doesn't lean on Western countries," she told SES Türkiye.
"Russia was trying to accomplish the South Stream project with the European Union countries in Eastern Europe. However the European Union's rejections have prevented the project from taking effect. In return, Russia has adopted a prepaid system for the natural gas it has been exporting to Ukraine, as a warning to both Ukraine and the European Union," Cetin said.
All of these political and strategic developments increased Turkey's importance, she said, adding that Iran will also use Turkey as a conduit to transfer its energy resources to Europe when sanctions against Iran are lifted.
In addition to the transfer of Iranian, Iraqi and Israeli gas, in the long run, the traffic will include delivery of gas from Cyprus, she added.
"Therefore, although Turkey couldn't yet reach full capacity, in the near future its volume will grow significantly," Cetin said.
Ogan said there is a great opportunity for pipelines through Turkey to be part of the solution to Europe's growing energy demands.
"Turkey undertakes an important mission in enriching the projects like TANAP," Ogan said.
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