OMFIF - Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum

The departure of Scotland from the United Kingdom would make European and international politics and economics less predictable, more volatile and less secure.

David Marsh, Lord (Meghnad) Desai, Sir Andrew Large, John Nugée, John Plender and Jack Wigglesworth outline 10 negative consequences of independence.

Gulfs have widened between regions. Asia looks scornfully at the EU’s problems, recalling the very different medicine it was prescribed after its 1997-98 financial crisis. Among emerging markets, Argentina’s debt tussle with the US judiciary is whetting appetite for change in world financial  governance. China, India,  Brazil, Russia and South Africa have set up the New Development Bank – but already there are signs of institutional fragmentation.

'Europe is stuck in a really difficult place', David Marsh told CNBC 'World Exchange'. 'Germany is hit on two sides.' Uncertainties in the east with sanctions are compounded by lower growth in Germany's traditional No.1 trading partner France. 'It is heading for a crunch.' Marsh says Germany is considering tax cuts and spending increases in an effort to stoke domestic demand.

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