VENTURES AFRICA – It started with the cravings of a power drunk leader who has been president since 1987 and wants a fifth term. The West African country is in a tumultuous situation, as protesters set the parliament ablaze in violence that has led to the death of at least one person and has forced the president to resign, a situation that embodies the sub-region’s struggles.
From Terrorism, to Ebola, to political instability, West African struggles have been on for decades and has stifled the economic growth of the region. The situation in Burkina Faso is another example of the struggles of a region filled with so much promise but bedevilled by poor leadership.
President Blaise Compaore’s plan to extend his 27-year rule angered the Burkinabe people, about 50 percent of which live below the poverty line and they broke into a violent protest. Their anger mirrors how Africans may react to the growing trend set by various African rulers, who seek elasticity in constitutional limits to achieve longevity in power.
The Silent Revolution
Political instability and economic mismanagement have plagued West Africa for decades, with the acute failings of politicians giving the military expanded rule across the region.
The South African Institute of International Affairs in a 1990 report titled West Africa: The Silent Revolution discussed the political situation in West Africa including the military regimes of Mauritania and Burkina Faso at the time, where Compaore was just seven years into his presidency.
The report noted that “unaccountable, alienated regimes presiding over dilapidating economies” were responsible for unrest across the region at the time, the situation remains the same today, but the revolution is no longer silent. Even Burkina Faso, one of the most stable in tumultuous West Africa is in turmoil. The message is clear, Africa’s large youth population are tired of being led by old people, who seem to have ran out of ideas. With the military now in charge after dissolving Compaore’s government, Burkina Faso may be back where they started. A statement signed by Gen. Honoré Nabéré Traoré, the joint chief of staff however says elections will hold within a year; whether that will happen remains to be seen. Mr Compaore has also announced he was stepping down to “preserve peace”.
Joining Political Instability To Stifle West Africa’s Growth Are Terrorism and Ebola
West Africa’s troubles are much more than the age long political instability, terrorism has crept into the region, with Burkina Faso’s neighbours Mali and Niger Republic fighting to keep their States safe from the rising tide of Islamist militancy. Nigeria, seen as a leader in the region, has also over the past half-decade battled Boko Haram insurgency which has killed about 12,000 people since it started in 2009 and has crippled the economy of its north.
Ebola has also stifled economic growth in the region, killing 4919 people in the region since December 2013.
The World Bank in a report on the economic impacts of Ebola on the hardest hit West African countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, noted that in the “Low Ebola” scenario – in which the disease is contained by early 2015, cases stay around 20,000 and economic activity gradually increases – lost GDP for West Africa was estimated at $2.2 billion in 2014 and $1.6 billion in 2015. The report estimated $7.4 billion in lost GDP for 2014 and $25.2 billion in 2015 in the case of “High Ebola” – in which the disease is contained more slowly, cases reach 200,000 and the outbreak worsens significantly into mid-2015.
Despite the fate suffered by its regional neighbours, Burkina Faso enjoyed relative stability under Compaore’s 27-year-rule.
Under Compaore, Burkina Faso has also been able to shut its borders to the Ebola Virus, which is threatening growth not only in West Africa, but also in Africa as a whole. In a recent statement, the World Bank raised concern about how Ebola and terrorism may not enable Africa achieve its growth potential in 2015. “Downside risks that require enhanced preparedness include … economic fallouts from the activities of terrorist groups such as Boko Haram … and the onslaught of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa,” said Francisco Ferreira, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa.
However, for a man who was able to maintain a stable country for almost three decades, it is surprising that just 5 percent of those who have reached working age in the West African country have a full-time job, according to data released by Gallup poll last year.
Some may argue that Compaore’s rule was not really bad: besides the relative peace enjoyed by the country under his presidency, a 2010 United Nations report declared Ouagadougou, the Burkinabe capital as the fastest-growing city in Africa. These in other climes can be indicative of good leadership, but in West Africa where extended years of autocratic rule and slow growth has disillusioned the people.
The situation in Burkina Faso holds true across the region, with socio-economic development still unimpressive even in countries recording impressive GDP growth. The pent-up frustration of youths, who have begun to demand for change across West Africa may one day be expressed and another Burkinabe situation may soon be on our hands.
As it is, the economic woes of the region may remain until conditions which have created them are overcome. The Compaores may need to bow out.