>> Jon: WELCOME BACK.MY GUESTS TONIGHT,
THEY HAVE COAUTHORED A PAPERTITLED
"TESTING THEORIES OF AMERICANPOLITICS: ELITES, INTEREST
GROUPS, AND AVERAGE CITIZENS".IT WILL APPEAR IN THE FALL
EDITION OF ACADEMIC JOURNAL.IT'S REALLY THE BEST EDITION,
THE SWIMSUIT EDITION, ACTUALLY,THE PERSPECTIVE ON POLITICS.
PLEASE WELCOME MARTINGILENS AND BENJAMIN PAGE.
COME ON OUT. HOW ARE YOU, SIR?
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]NICE TO SEE YOU. COME AND SIT.
THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]>> THANK YOU.
>> PLEASURE.
>> Jon: THE PEOPLE LOVE AQUANTITIVE ANALYSIS.
[ LAUGHTER ]TALK TO US VERY BRIEFLY BECAUSE
THIS PAPER TRIESTO STATISTICALLY QUANTIFY
THAT FEELING THAT EVERYONE HASTHAT
ACCESS AND POWER AND INFLUENCEDISPROPORTIONATELY GO TO ELITES.
SO, IS THAT WHAT THE ATTEMPT WASHERE TO DO, TO STATISTICALLY
QUANTIFY THAT IN ANYWAY?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.
>> Jon: OK, THAT'S GOOD. THAT'SALL THE TIME WE HAVE.
ALL RIGHT.
[LAUGHTER]HOW DID YOU TRY DO THAT?
>> MARTIN SPENT TEN YEARS DOINGIT.
>> Jon: YOU SPENTTEN YEARS DOING IT?
>> I DID.
>> Jon: WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE?
>> I AM A LAST MINUTEADDITION, HONESTLY.
>> Jon: OH, IS THAT REALLY TRUE.BUT DID YOU WRITE THE PAPERTOGETHER OR?
>> WE WROTE IT TOGETHER.
IT WAS BEN'S IDEA.
AND IT WAS BEN'S IDEA THAT THEREWOULD BE ENOUGH INTEREST IN THE
COUNTRY THAT WE SHOULD PUT OUT APRESS RELEASE AND SEE IF THE
MEDIA CARED ABOUT IT.
>> Jon: THAT'S A SMART THING.
YOU COME UP WITH THE IDEA ANDYOU SAY TO THIS GENTLEMAN, WHY
DON'T YOU WORK ON THAT FOR TENYEARS?
>> YOU GOT IT. YOU GOT IT.
>> Jon: IN THIS ANALYSIS,IF YOU WILL, I'M OBVIOUSLYNOT A
STATISTICIAN, I'M NOT ANECONOMIST, I WOULD SAY YOU
REPRESENT THE ELITES. AND YOUHAVE HAD YOUR ASS
QUANTITATIVELY HANDED TO YOU.
>> NO, NO, NO. IT GOT ME ON YOURSHOW, JON.
AND, TEN YEARS WAS WORTH IT.
>> Jon: YOU'RE ABSOLUTELYRIGHT. AND I'M DELIGHTED.
HOW DO YOU QUANTIFY SOMETHINGLIKE THAT?
WHAT METRICS DO YOU USE?
>> WE LOOKED AT A COUPLETHOUSAND POTENTIAL POLICY
CHANGES IN THE UNITED STATESOVER TWENTY FIVE YEARS, AND
WE MEASURED WHAT ORDINARYCITIZENS WANTED WHETHER THEY
FAVORED OR OPPOSED THEM AND WHATELITES, ECONOMIC ELITES, WANTED,
AND WHERE INTEREST GROUPS FELL.AND BY HAVING MEASURES OF ALL
THOSE THINGS WE COULD PUT THEMINTO A STATISTICAL MODEL THAT
WOULD TO ASSESS THE INFLUENCE OFEACH OF THOSE SETS OF ACTORS.
>> Jon: RIGHT, LET ME ASK YOU,THOUGH. WHEN YOU HAVE
SOMETHING HERE IN THIS CASE. THEBIVARIATE REGRESSION YOU'RE
USING, YOU HAVE .18DIFFERENTIAL AND A
.22 DIFFERENTIAL OF THE INTERESTGROUPS AND THE OTHER. NOW,
WHEN YOU USE THOSE ASINDEPENDENT VARIABLES THEY
DIFFER DRAMATICALLY BUT IF YOUARE GOING TO TRY TO STRONGLY
RELATE THOSE BIVARIATECORRELATIONS BECAUSE THEY ARE SO
CLOSE, DOESN'T THAT SUGGEST YOUHAVE A MULTICOLA -- LINEARITY
PROBLEM.
>> OH, MY GOD. YOU THINK SO? ITCOULD BE!
>> Jon: LET ME TELL YOUSOMETHING. I DON'T KNOW WHAT IJUST SAID.
I GUESS THE QUESTION IS: DO THEELITES, IS THE VARIABLE ENOUGH
FROM WHAT THE NON-ELITE PUBLICWANTS TO WHAT THE ELITES WANT?
DID YOU FIND A LARGE SPREADBETWEEN THEIR AIMS?
>> YES, YEAH.
THERE'S SOME VERY IMPORTANTISSUES INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY
DEFICITS, ECONOMIC REGULATIONS,TAXES.
>> Jon: ARE YOU ABLE TOCALCULATE HOW MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE MONEY MAKES OR HOWMUCH OF A DIFFERENCE, YOU
KNOW -- CAN YOU LOOK ATDIFFERENT INTEREST GROUPS AND
SEE -- ALMOST CALCULATE WHATTHEIR EFFECT IS?
LIKE WHO IS THE MOST EFFECTIVEPRIVATE LOBBY GROUP?
WHAT IS THE MOST EFFECTIVEMONEY?
>> WITH OUR DATA NOT REALLY.
WE LOOKED AT LOBBYISTS, WELOOKED AT INTEREST GROUPS AS A
WHOLE.
WE WERE ABLE TO DISTINGUISHMASS BASED GROUPS LIKE AFL-CIO
OR THE AARP FROMBUSINESS GROUPS.
BUT BEYOND THAT WE CAN'T REALLYSAY.
>> Jon: RIGHT, NOW, WHY WOULDTHOSE BE DIFFERENT?
IF MONEY IS MONEY, WHY WOULDAFL-CIO BE DIFFERENT FROM A
BUSINESS GROUP?
>> IT'S A VERY GOOD QUESTION.
AND IT TURNS OUT THEY ARE NOTTHAT DIFFERENT. WHAT
THE DIFFERENCE COMES FROM ISTHERE'S A LOT MORE BUSINESS
GROUPS.
>> Jon: OH, LABOR ISUNDERREPRESENTED IN TERMS OF,
AND THAT WOULD REFLECTIN TERMS OF POLICY.
>> EXACTLY.
>> Jon: OK, ARE THERE INTERESTGROUPS THAT ARE REALLY WASTING
THEIR MONEY? LIKE CAN YOU
LOOK AT A CERTAIN GROUP ANDSAY WOW CLUB FOR GROWTH IS
GETTING BANG FOR THEIR BUCK BUTTHE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY IS
INEFFICIENT AND BEING RIPPED OFFBY THEIR LOBBYISTS.
>> IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW BUTWE CAN'T TELL.
>> Jon: YOU CAN'T TELL.
>> CAN'T TELL.
>> Jon: I GUESS WHAT I'M GOINGFOR IS --
[LAUGHTER]-- I WANT TO GET A LOBBYIST
FANTASY LEAGUE GOING WHERE WECAN GET THE STATISTICS AND TRADE
THEM LIKE MONEY BALL, LIKESABERMETRICS BUT FOR LOBBYISTS
BECAUSE THEN WE COULDTRACK IT STATISTICALLY AND
HAVE A MUCH CLEARER VISION OFWHO WE'RE UP AGAINST.
[LAUGHTER]HERE IS WHAT I JUST REALIZED: I
AM FAILING THIS CLASS.
WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT THEDIFFERENTIAL THEN?
WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?
>> I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT. YOUKNOW,
KRUGMAN WROTE A COLUMN AND HESAID THIS STUDY IS OKAY BUT IT'S
GOING TO DISCOURAGE PEOPLE ANDTHAT'S BAD.
AND, I THINK THERE'S SOMETHINGTO THAT.
THIS IS A SOLVABLE PROBLEM.
I THINK IT TAKES A VERY BIGSOCIAL MOVEMENT.
I THINK IT TAKES BIPARTISANLEADERSHIP AND IT ACTUALLY
TAKES WEALTHY PEOPLE ON THE SAMESIDE TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.
NOTHING SEEMS TO HAPPEN INAMERICAN POLITICS OF ANY
IMPORTANCE FOR --
>> Jon: RIGHT, I WAS GOING TOSAY, DO YOU KNOW OF A COUNTRY
WHERE THAT COULDHAPPEN? IS THERE ANYTHING --
>> WELL, THE UNITED STATES ATTHE BEGINNING OF THE 20th
CENTURY, THE PROGRESSIVE PERIOD.I THINK IT'S REALLY WORTH
LOOKING BACK TO THAT ANDLEARNING SOME LESSONS.
>> Jon: STICK AROUND FOR ALITTLE BIT AFTER THE BREAK AND
WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUTWHAT THE MECHANICS OF THAT
WOULD LOOK LIKE TO SOME EXTENTOR HOW TOP QUANTIFY THAT
TO SOME EXTENT.YOU CAN BUY ALSO,
MARTIN YOU HAVE A BOOK OUT,RIGHT?
>> I DO INDEED.
>> Jon: IN FACT, I JUSTHAPPEN TO HAVE IT RIGHT
HERE. IT'S CALLED AFFLUENCE ANDINFLUENCE.
IT WAS THIS GUY'SIDEA. AND THEN THIS GUY
SPENT 20 YEARS WRITING ITAND I DON'T KNOW WHO IS GETTING
THE ROYALTIES, PROBABLY ME.
IT'S ON THE BOOKSHELVES NOW.
MARTIN GILEN SAND BENJAMIN PAGE.
WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.