In the past year or so, there have been three horrificially destructive earthquakes in the same circum-Pacific system of fault lines called the horseshoe-shaped 'Ring of Fire,' which also features hundreds of active volcanoes.
First, came the violent 8.8 earthquake in Chile on February 22, 2010. Then, exactly a year later, Christchurch, New Zealand was hit by a 7.2 quake on February 22, 2011. But the most destructive quake of all struck on March 11 in Japan, a massive 9.0 shaker that produced a deadly tsunami that killed upward of 10,000 people and destroyed several nuclear power plants in northeastern Japan, an unprecedented 'triple whammy.' Agriculture may be stopped in its tracks by radiation-contaminated fields in the region.
Only the northeastern corner of this 'Ring of Fire' horseshoe has yet to see a catastrophic earthquake. This section runs from Alaska southward through Washington, Oregon and all of California into extreme northern Mexico.
In recent days, Meteorologist Randy Mann and I have received numerous phone calls and e-mails from people deeply concerned about dire predictions of a potentially disastrous earthquake striking the Seattle area in the near future or, perhaps, to the south in Los Angeles or San Francisco.
Seattle lies within the volatile "Ring of Fire." This region has been formed as the result of huge continental plates moving and sliding into one another. Many are familiar with the North American Plate and the Pacific Plate sliding past one another creating the notorious San Andreas Fault in California.
But, a smaller plate, called the Juan de Fuca, is located off the British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and extreme northern California coastlines. New evidence suggests that it is currently pressing against the North American Plate causing uplift and stress. Eventually, it's expected that the ground will break, perhaps causing another "mega-thrust" earthquake that could rival the recent Japanesedisaster. Also, a deadly tsunami could take thousands of lives in the region.
But, no one knows for certain when that may happen or how strong the quake might be. It could be soon or many, many years down the road. Accurate earthquake predictions are not possible with our current technology.
see GEMS, A3
from A2
And, there are many people trying to make a name for themselves by making these predictions that may not come to pass for decades or longer.
According to a recent National Geographic documentary, there have been 19 major earthquakes in the northwestern U.S. over the last 10,000 years. The last one, based on carbon dating, occurred around 1700 A.D., more than 300 years ago. At the same time, Japan was wiped-out by a huge tsunami.
Some scientists believe that Seattle is overdue for a major earthquake. And, the epicenter could be more inland rather than offshore. Many of Seattle's structures were not built to withstand a major earthquake, so damage in that city would likely be catastrophic.
According to some seismologists, "seismic activity is intensifying." They add, "the rate of occurring earthquakes has increased and the emission of energy has grown."
According to Randy Mann, who also teaches Physical Geography at North Idaho College, on average, since 1900, there is one quake with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher each year. (In 2007, there were 4.) There are approximately 17 quakes between a 7.0 and a 7.9 per year. According to the U.S. Geologic Survey, "Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of a magnitude of 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant."
There has also been a large increase in the number of earthquakes that we have been able to locate each year because of the higher number of seismographic stations in the world and improved global communications. There are approximately 8,000 seismographic stations now compared to 350 in 1931.
As far as San Francisco or Los Angeles is concerned, the famous San Andreas Fault in California is a division between the large Pacific and North American Plates, which are sliding past one another at about 1-2 inches per year. Eventually, a major earthquake will strike California. In Los Angeles, for example, historical evidence points to a major quake every 200 years. The last major earthquake happened about 300 years ago, much like the Seattle area.
So what does all this recent activity mean? No one knows for sure as earthquakes are extremely difficult to predict. Many scientists thought that a large earthquake was in store for northern Japan due to the recent earthquake activity prior to the 9.0 magnitude quake of March 11.
Several Russian scientists, as well, are stating that large earthquakes are possible along the U.S. and South American West Coasts in the near future. Their information is based upon increasing subtle electromagnetic signals in the Earth's upper atmosphere over these regions. But again, these are only educated guesses. As usual, only time will tell.
North Idaho weather review and long-range outlooks
Nearly 10 inches of precipitation had fallen on Coeur d'Alene since Jan. 1 as of 10 a.m. on Thursday, March 17, St. Patrick's Day. This included 49 inches of snow during the same time span, which pushed our 2010-11 seasonal total to 111.4 inches, nearly 42 inches above our normal 69.8 inches of the white stuff for an entire season ending June 30. Some mountain locations near the Montana border have gauged more than 300 inches of snow during this prolonged winter that began with record accumulations last November and may not end until early May at elevations above 3,500 feet.
Even in the lowlands, we may still see occasional snow showers well into the month of April, especially during the colder overnight hours. Most of the daytime precipitation will arrive in the form of rain as temperatures rise into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s.
The cool, wet 'La Nina' event in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean is still holding on to life. Therefore, the Inland Northwest should continue to be damp and chilly at least through early May, possibly later. There will be some brief mild and sunny periods this spring, but they won't last long.
Randy Mann and I are still hopeful, though, for a warmer and drier than normal summer season between mid June and late September. A strong ridge of high pressure is likely to build across the Inland Empire, especially in July and August. There will be many 'Sholeh Days' this summer with afternoon highs near or above 90 degrees and at least three or four days near the century mark.
Gusty winds at times and low humidity levels and amounts of precipitation could spell TROUBLE for the region's forests and grasslands as parched fuels will be in abundant supplies. Stay tuned.
Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail him atsfharris@roadrunner.com