How the Syrian conflict could get even bigger and bloodier

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Op-Ed, Washington Post

November 3, 2015

Author:David Ignatius, Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project

Belfer Center Programs or Projects: Future of Diplomacy Project

President Obama says he doesnt want to turn the Syria conflict into a proxy war. Unfortunately, thats already happening, as combatants join the battle against the Islamic State with radically differing agendas that could collide.

Lets look at the confusing order of battle: The United States has decided that its strongest partner against the Islamic State is a Syrian Kurdish force known as theYPG. But Turkey, nominally our NATO ally,says the YPG has links with what it claims is a Kurdish terrorist group. Hows that going to work out? No answers yet.

Russia, meanwhile, contends that it is fighting the Islamic State, alongside forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But Russian warplanes have beenbombing Islamist rebel groups that are covertly supported by the United States, Turkey and Jordan and these brigades are fighting back hard. The rebels are posting videos bragging about their success withU.S. anti-tank missiles. The battle looks eerily like Russias war in Afghanistan, in embryo. Wheres it heading? No answer there, either.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have beenfighting by proxy in Syria for nearly four years. This may be the most toxic conflict of all, because it feeds the Sunni-Shiite sectarian inferno that is immolating the Middle East.

Look across the map of shattered Syria and you see contradictory coalitions and partnerships. With so many powerful military forces gathering in the same area, the danger for accidents and miscalculations is large.

Why is this proxy war escalating at the same time the outside powers are holding diplomatic talks about resolving the conflict? The United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia sent representatives to Vienna last week to explore the political transition they all claim to favor.The meetingwas not encouraging:No Syrian combatants attended, and the outside powers disagreed sharply about what a transition should look like.

Fight and talk is a recurring cycle in Middle East conflict. So perhaps the recent military escalation is the prelude to diplomatic negotiations, as each side tries to extend its territory and strengthen its bargaining position before serious talks begin. We should be so lucky. But both Assad and the rebels seem as unready for compromise as ever.

Studying Syria from north to south, its clear where deconfliction, as the military puts it, is needed to avoid unintended disaster.

On the northern front, the United States needs to deepen its consultations with Turkey as it escalates support for Syrian Kurdish forces and their Arab allies. President Obama issending fewer than 50 Special Operations forces to Syria, but make no mistake, this is a significant commitment. The U.S. troops will need air support not just to bomb the Islamic State, but for resupply, rescue if they get in trouble, and perhaps to enable the cycle of intelligence-driven night raids that was so devastating in Iraq.

What does Turkey think about this expanded U.S. role on its border, especially after thedecisive election victory Sunday by the sometimes Kurdophobic President Recep Tayyip Erdogan? Pentagon officials say the Turks should be reassured, because the United States will now have greater oversight of the YPGs25,000 fighters and can prevent supplies from getting to the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, which Turkey views as a terrorist group. Its a reasonable argument, but it needs Ankaras assent.

On Syrias southern border with Jordan, the United States has quietly helped train a rebel coalition known as theSouthern Front,which claims 35,000 fighters in 54 brigades. Last week, Russian warplanesattacked some of those U.S.-backed forces at Al-Harra in southwest Syria, the site of a former Russian signals-intelligence station captured by the rebels. This is crazy. Moscow and Washington should look to de-escalate the situation, rather than torch it more.

But in the inexorable logic of the Syria conflict, worse is ahead. Maj. Essam al-Rayes, the spokesman for the Southern Front, told me in a telephone interview Tuesday that his forces expect a new Syrian onslaught this week, backed by Russia, to recapture ground south of Damascus. This pursuit of victory only helps the extremists.

Whats over the hill, if the outside powers dont find a path toward de-escalation? Heres one grim hint: I had visits over the past several weeks from leaders of Kurdish political movements in Iran and Syria who envision the day when a greater Kurdistan dissolves the borders of those nations, as well as Turkey and Iraq.

If Russia, Iran, Turkey and the other proxy fighters dont help put the pin back in this grenade, a more devastating, regionwide explosion lies ahead.

For more information about this publication please contact the Belfer Center Communications Office at 617-495-9858.

Full text of this publication is available at:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-the-syrian-conflict-could-get-even-bigger-and-bloodier/2015/11/03/1973d678-826a-11e5-a7ca-6ab6ec20f839_story.html

For Academic Citation:

Ignatius, David. "How the Syrian conflict could get even bigger and bloodier." Washington Post, November 3, 2015.