What’s at Stake in Paris - Diplomacy & Policy at the Climate Change Talks - Harvard - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Event Summary

November 22, 2015

Belfer Center Programs or Projects: Future of Diplomacy Project

Opening the joint CLIMATE CHANGE DIPLOMACY WEEK event series, speakers and leading climate change experts from both Harvard and beyond participated in a panel discussion titled "What's at Stake in Paris?: Diplomacy and Policy at the Climate Change Talks," moderated by the Future of Diplomacy Project Faculty Director, R. Nicholas Burns, and co-hosted with the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements on November 9. The speakers, comprising of Sturgis Hooper Professor of Geology at Harvard University, Daniel Schrag; former Costa Rican Minister of Environment and Energy, René Castro; former Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs and chief climate negotiator, Paula Dobriansky; and Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government and Director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, Robert Stavins; weighed in on the upcoming UNFCCC talks to be held in Paris in December and

Tradeoffs for developing nations:

René Castro, former Costa Rican Minister of Environment and Energy and fellow at the ______, began the panel conversation by discussing the tradeoffs that developing countries such as Costa Rica face in climate change policy. Mr. Castro recognized the tradeoffs between economic growth and sustainable development that developing Latin American countries face. He underlined that there is a new positive trend in countries such as Mexico, Columbia, and Child toward presenting their own goals for emission reduction, using its own resources, and then requesting additional funds for more support from other countries.

“We don’t have a meaningful answer for the small island states. That is a painful answer; they are going to disappear," Mr. Castro expressed.

The issue of financing:

Paula sees controversy/friction over $100 billion financing - important of climate adaptation - shouldn’t be overlooked - adaptation will and should be part of the discourse. Cites Kerry - that it isn’t just all about Paris/Dubai (HFCs).

“It’s not just a portion of country that will have a stake in it but the globe a large.”

On financing: creative funding mechanisms (using the private sector/stake of the business community)

“Pledge and review” - Paula stresses the importance of follow-through. A quarter of the 159 have said they will not go forward with the plan unless they have money (conditioned plan)

Diplomacy matters about these conventions. Not just the agreements. Cites Kerry’s FT article. It’s the implementation.

The importance of the US-China partnership

Dan Schrag confident because of China-US initiative on Climate Change. India becoming more cooperative. Sees potential for a diplomatic initiative to work together. No longer developed-developing fragmentation because of Chinese American partnership

Assessment of where Paris will end up: Refugees caused by climate (could easily talk about 10s of millions of people - Ethiopian drought - not so much island)

Optimistic - comes from China-US agreement. Asymmetric agreement but significant because THEY HAVE COMMITTED to 20% of energy to non-fossil sources. Wishes that US had the same target - fraction of energy coming from non-fossil energies and how does that grow over time because that’s what really matters, in the long-run its de-fossilization that matters. that’s where I’m really optimistic about the future"

In it for the long-term

Where we should in next 5-10 years post-Paris: “My worry is that there is such a focus on short-term reduction”

Need investments for deep deep de-carbonization e.g. China investing in nuclear energy (China trying to perfect traditional nuclear technology the way they did to coal plants - not going to matter by 2030 but by 2070 - it could be the way they shut down their existing coal plants - “and yet it is probably one of the most significant things happening.)” Massive investment in solar by Chinese opens up opportunities for people in India to install - “and yet it plans a tiny role in emission reduction by 2030” - “we have to work on parallel alternative metrics because they’re missing important things”

US - electric cars

Critical technology beyond

6 measures of success at Paris

1) 90% of global emissions will be covered compared to 40% under KYOTO; 2) Credible reporting/transparency requirements will be pushed for (China/US are on board with this together); 3) System for financing climate adaptation/mitigation ($100 billion financing); 4) Time schedule to resubmit IPCC every 5 years; 5) Put aside the unproductive disagreements between developed and developing worlds ("loss and damage” article)’ 6) (“unlikely” though) Step away from 2 degrees sea target - because that sets up for public perception of failure [TWEET]

For a full recording of the event, click here: https://soundcloud.com/belfercenter/climate-change-diplomacy-november-9-2015

For more information about this publication please contact the Future of Diplomacy Project Executive Director at 617-496-0104.

For Academic Citation:

"What’s at Stake in Paris - Diplomacy & Policy at the Climate Change Talks." CLIMATE CHANGE DIPLOMACY WEEK., November 22, 2015.