VIDEO-MULTIPLE-PM Spends Billions On Threats He Did Not Predict

Politicians are not much good at futurology.

The Prime Minister acknowledged as much presenting the Strategic Defence and Security Review to the House of Commons.

"History teaches us that no government can predict the future ... (we) need to have versatility to meet new threats," he said.

There were no mentions of Islamic State or ISIL and just two of Russia five years ago.

In Monday's document both are mentioned 28 times.

So versatility underpins the strategic approach.

This time there is money available.

More money for new equipment mainly.

Aircraft for the aircraft carriers, marine patrols, drones and new "strike brigades" of 10,000 troops that the PM says will help Britain "shape world events".

The significant new news was the £6bn plus increase in the costs of the Trident nuclear deterrent submarines.

Earlier this year the Ministry of Defence put a price tag of £25bn on the project.

Monday's defence review put that at £31bn plus a £10bn contingency.

Will it change the Government view of the project? Certainly not.

But it will add fuel to the SNP's fire, and in turn the growing anti-Trident sentiment in the Labour Party.

The SNP framed its opposition to Trident on fiscal as well as defence grounds.

Soaring costs will now feature in the Trident debate in the Commons.

Jeremy Corbyn's response illustrated Labour's own divides on security.

He chose to major on police cuts, the impact of tax credits on soldiers and human rights advisers in embassies.

This approach will inform Labour's own defence review, co-chaired by Maria Eagle and Ken Livingstone.

The PM simply brushed it aside.

As one Labour MPs told me they are dealing with the reality that "our leader is a pacifist".

Mr Corbyn told me himself in September it was "hard to say" if he was a "total pacifist".

In the actual document, though, there were plenty of mention of wider global issues, from biosecurity to cyberattacks to climate change.

Half the aid budget will be re-purposed to focus on strategic support in conflict countries such as Syria.

For the Prime Minister, the combination of the 0.7% aid target and the 2% NATO target shows a Britain punching above its weight in the world.

But he is sensitive to this argument about "strategic shrinkage".

This is why he is treading so cautiously on a vote for action in Syria.

Next week Britain could be coordinating with Russian jets against IS in Syria.

Yet Russia is itself listed as a "state-based threat".

And who knows what else might emerge in the next five years.