VIDEO - Alberto to make landfall on US Gulf Coast to end Memorial Day weekend
Flooding will remain the greatest concern across the southeastern United States as Alberto churns northward with an expected landfall at the end of the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
Governors of Florida and Mississippi have declared states of emergencies ahead of the advancing subtropical storm.
Alberto is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for Alberto to become fully tropical and a stronger tropical storm into Monday.
While odds favor Alberto failing to do so, it is not out of the question for it to become a minimal hurricane before making landfall on the U.S. upper Gulf Coast to close out the holiday weekend.
Landfall expected between New Orleans and Tallahassee
"Landfall is expected to occur between New Orleans and Tallahassee, Florida,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey said. Cities where Alberto can move onshore include Gulfport, Mississippi; Mobile, Alabama; and Pensacola and Panama City, Florida.
Alberto could make landfall as early as Monday morning or as late as Monday evening.
Rain and wind is expected to increase along the upper Gulf Coast on Memorial Day as Alberto approaches.
“Because of the expected factors that will work against [significant] strengthening, Alberto is not anticipated to have a large wind field as it approaches the Gulf Coast,” Duffey said.
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That will result in a small area of winds that can lead to power outages and tree damage in the vicinity of where Alberto comes onshore. Weaker structures may also sustain damage.
“Gusts past 40 mph could extend as far east as the central Florida Panhandle,” Duffey said. These wind gusts may also graze the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, including Tampa, on Sunday.
Additional damage may occur where isolated tornadoes spin up east of Alberto’s track.
As the winds drive ocean water onshore, a total inundation of storm surge flooding can reach 2 to 4 feet above ground near and east of where Alberto's. The worst-case scenario will be if the peak surge coincides with high tide.
Anyone spending the Memorial Day holiday along the upper Gulf Coast is encouraged to monitor advice from government officials and heed all evacuation orders.
Flooding rain will pose the greatest and most widespread threat to lives and property. The slow-movement of Alberto can produce an excessive amount of rain along the upper Gulf Coast. Totals can range from 10-20 inches, near and east of the storm’s track.
More evacuations may get issued as runoff from the torrential rain can trigger severe flooding, which may inundate some homes and communities. Roads or bridges may become flooded or damaged.
While the risk for damaging winds will lessen after Alberto makes landfall, the flood danger will expand northward into the Tennessee Valley in the days following Memorial Day.
Sharp contrast west of Alberto’s track
Over a span of less than 300 miles, the weather will be dramatically different in Pensacola, Florida, than Lake Charles, Louisiana.
“Winds will be much lighter west of Alberto’s track, and drier air being pulled into the storm will keep these areas largely rain-free,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
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The western edge of the rain may be so sharp that a track over Mobile, Alabama, could allow New Orleans to escape with weather no worse than a typical summer day with thunderstorms around.
Southeastern US already enduring impacts from Alberto
While the worst of Alberto will focus on the upper Gulf Coast at the end of the holiday weekend, impacts have begun across the Southeast.
“Heavy rain and thunderstorms are already impacting far-southern Florida and Cuba and will spread northward with the storm,” according Duffey, who also expressed concern for landslides in western Cuba.
Anyone spending the holiday weekend in Miami and Orlando, Florida; Atlanta and Savannah, Georgia; Columbia and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; the Outer Banks of North Carolina; and Birmingham and Montgomery, Alabama, should remain vigilant of downpours that can cause localized flash flooding.
A downpour moving over Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday evening could delay or halt NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600.
Areas where the ground has already been left saturated from recent downpours will be most susceptible to flooding this holiday weekend.
Downpours can be most numerous and bring a greater threat for flooding along Florida’s west coast, including Naples and Tampa, than at the Atlantic beaches.
As the heavy rain from Alberto spreads to the north, so will the risk for isolated tornado across Florida and into southern Georgia.
Seas will also build and become dangerous for boaters and swimmers across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. The danger of rip currents may also increase along the Texas coast and the Atlantic Ocean beaches of the Southeast during the holiday weekend.
The pounding seas may lead to coastal flooding along the west coast of Florida’s Peninsula at high tide.
With Alberto starting the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season early, now is a good time for all residents in hurricane-prone areas to review preparedness tips.