AI picks Buttigieg ‘the candidate to beat Trump’

 | February 08, 2020 12:44 PM

An artificial intelligence analysis of Friday night's Democratic debate picked former Mayor Pete Buttigieg as the clear winner and said that voters believe he can beat President Trump.

The AI model Polly, a market research and predictive tool from Advanced Symbolics Inc., analyzed the debates and measured a sample of 11,227 New Hampshire voters to find that the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor achieved his goal in the debate of convincing people he could beat the president.

(Chart provided by Advanced Symbolics Inc.)

“Buttigieg had a strong first half. While the rest of the field attacked him, saying he wasn’t the right candidate to take on Trump, New Hampshire voters disagreed. Polly’s results showed that three-quarters of a percent of New Hampshire voters came to Buttigieg's camp after he made a strong case why he was the candidate to beat Trump,” said ASI Chief Scientist Kenton White in his report shared with Secrets.

[Related: Front-running Mayor Pete is main target in New Hampshire debate]

Polly still has Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders leading in its AI poll, but the former mayor has a firm grip on second while former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances are dimming.

Overall, said White, “Buttigieg had to convince New Hampshire voters that Iowa wasn’t a fluke, and he succeeded. Up almost a full percentage point, Polly pegs Buttigieg as the clear winner in tonight’s debate, cementing a strong second place in the upcoming primary. Sanders kept his lead among New Hampshire voters but failed to sway those who weren’t already committed. Biden continues his fall, losing almost a full point of support.”

His analysis of the AI data found three other points:

• “Sanders started the evening off strong. Polly found that his opening remarks drew applause and an increase in voter perception. This was quickly lost when the debate turned to healthcare. Usually a winning talking point for Sanders, Biden quickly went on the offensive and had his strongest showing of the evening when he asked Sanders how he would pay for his healthcare plan. From here, it was downhill for Biden.”

• “Biden consistently lost ground, momentarily gaining some in the second half with his strong Senate record and support of the Supreme Court, but it wasn’t enough. Polly saw that despite faltering when his criminal justice record as mayor was brought up, Buttigieg consistently gained throughout the evening.”

• “While it doesn’t seem enough to cost Sanders New Hampshire, Buttigieg is well poised for the upcoming Nevada and South Carolina primaries, where his criminal justice record and ability to attract black voters will be tested.”