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I didn't say they changed the model. The model is being proven to be based on illogical assumptions. Ferguson acknowledges in the thread you linked that the UK model is based on essentially zero precautions being taken. |
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1. Ferguson didn't "adjust the number down from 500k to 20k" which is what Brix said. Their model always said on the assumption of no intervention, deaths may total 500k and, with active social distancing measures, much less. |
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I'm not disagreeing with that. I'm disagreeing with governments and media consistently using the worst-case models as their headlines without adding the context that "these numbers reflect worst case without any precautions being taken and no medical advances happening". |
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