Covid-19 Celebrity Scientist Scoreboard

(stats update on refresh)

Michael Osterholm

Prediction: 480,000 Dead Worldwide

"We conservatively estimate that this could require 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases actually occurring. Over 480,000 deaths."

--Joe Rogan, Episode 1439

Neil Furguson

Prediction:
2.2 million dead in U.S.

"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

--Study - Imperial College London, 3/16/2020

Michael Saag

Prediction:
14 million hospitalized in U.S.s

"He believes the projections that show 70 to 120 million Americans will become infected. An estimated 20% of those, mostly older people, will need additional medical care. At the low end, that’s 14 million people who could require hospitalization."

--WBHM Interview, 3/18/2020

Anthony Fauci

Prediction:
100,000 to 200,000 dead in U.S.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said based on modeling of the current pace of the coronavirus' spread in the U.S., "between 100,000 and 200,000" people may die from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

--CNN - State of the Union, 3/29/2020

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Prediction:
83,967 dead in U.S.

Nationwide, a total of 83,967 COVID-19 deaths (range of 36,614 to 152,582) are currently projected to occur through the epidemic’s first wave. These estimates align with yesterday’s projections, though the average is slightly higher due to state-level death updates since March 30. These estimates assume that currently enacted social distancing policies remain in place and also that social distances measures are introduced within seven days from today in states that have not already adopted them.

--IHME Updates Blog, 3/31/2020