Justin Hart on Twitter: "Wait. What did I just read?! I was doing some sleuthing trying to understand why the total NYC stats are so MASSIVE and I discovered: **NYC is ESTIMATING #COVID19 hospitalizations NOT ON TESTS but on symptoms that match known case

Justin Hart

@ justin_hart

2h

馃槼 "intense resource and time constraints on hospital reporting systems" No doubt! We've talked about the dangers of a society demanding real-time pandemic medical data in an election-night style format. But what's that NEXT PART about? 5/

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Justin Hart

@ justin_hart

2h

"...we have estimated the number of individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 who have ever been hospitalized by matching the list of key fields from known cases that are reported by laboratories." Now, word of caution - maybe this estimation is totally normal but essentially... 6/

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Justin Hart

@ justin_hart

2h

NYC is estimating hospitalizations and cases by ASSUMING that OTHER patients who visited ERs with SIMILAR symptoms in a database should AUTOMATICALLY be counted as

#COVID19

patients Stop me if I'm wrong but that could be ONE of the factors as to WHY NYC has SUCH a big caseload?

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Justin Hart

@ justin_hart

2h

Now look - this may be SOP for a crisis like this... and I love a good regression formula... but 1) WAS it a regression formula? Or just a vlookup? Or worse yet... a filter? 2) How far back did they go? What period of time does "Ever Hospitalized Cases" cover? Lot of questions

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Justin Hart

@ justin_hart

2h

I'll reiterate - NYC deserves our total support - they have been going through an awful hell. But when we're making HUGE decisions like shutting down the country for 30 days and HALF of the deaths are from 1 state... I want to make sure we have ALL of the information right.

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Patch Happens

@ Finger_Fan

1h

Gee, it would've been nice if we were able to implement widespread testing. That would have cleared a lot of the confusion up. But OH WELL. In the absence of that, I generally have faith that doctors can tell who has Covid-19 based on their symptoms. That's what their job is.

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Justin Hart

@ justin_hart

1h

I can totally see that point of view. But I had to dig to find the details behind this. It's just good to know this up front... I mean... it can also be fodder to say... "look, we didn't have enough tests or time!" But this is first place I've seen it. thx for the feedback.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1245906158260383745