Deaths in every state of the country are higher than they would be in a normal year, according to an analysis of estimates from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The data show how the coronavirus pandemic, which is peaking in many states, is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.
Deaths nationwide were 19 percent higher than normal from March 15 to Nov. 14. Altogether, the analysis shows that 345,000 more people than normal have died in the United States during that period, a number that may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.
Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning when the virus took hold. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”
As coronavirus cases spread across the country, the geographic patterns of deaths above normal have followed.
Deaths above normal in these places peaked in October or later.
Arkansas
March 15 – Nov. 21
Indiana
March 15 – Nov. 21
7,600
17%
114
Missouri
March 15 – Nov. 21
7,100
17%
116
North Dakota
March 15 – Nov. 14
700
16%
104
South Dakota
March 15 – Nov. 14
800
16%
101
Nebraska
March 15 – Nov. 21
1,700
16%
92
Montana
March 15 – Nov. 21
1,000
15%
96
Tennessee
March 15 – Nov. 21
7,400
15%
110
Wisconsin
March 15 – Nov. 21
5,100
14%
88
Wyoming
March 15 – Nov. 14
400
14%
75
Kansas
March 15 – Nov. 21
2,300
13%
80
Oklahoma
March 15 – Nov. 14
3,300
13%
85
Minnesota
March 15 – Nov. 21
3,900
13%
70
Kentucky
March 15 – Nov. 14
3,900
12%
88
Excess deaths right now look worst in parts of the Midwest where coronavirus cases have been high. But in the summer, when the virus was more common in the South and Southwest, excess deaths were higher in those regions.
Deaths above normal in these places peaked from July to October.
Arizona
March 15 – Nov. 21
Mississippi
March 15 – Nov. 21
5,300
25%
180
South Carolina
March 15 – Nov. 14
7,300
22%
142
Georgia
March 15 – Nov. 14
12,000
21%
114
Alabama
March 15 – Nov. 14
6,800
20%
140
Florida
March 15 – Nov. 14
26,100
19%
122
California
March 15 – Nov. 14
30,700
18%
78
Nevada
March 15 – Nov. 14
2,800
17%
94
New Mexico
March 15 – Nov. 14
1,800
15%
90
Puerto Rico
March 15 – Oct. 10
1,900
13%
59
North Carolina
March 15 – Aug. 15
4,200
11%
40
Washington State
March 15 – Nov. 21
3,700
10%
49
West Virginia
March 15 – Oct. 10
1,000
9%
60
Oregon
March 15 – Nov. 14
1,700
7%
41
Hawaii
March 15 – Nov. 14
200
4%
20
Alaska
March 15 – Oct. 31
80
3%
12
In the early months of the pandemic, deaths were most common in the Northeast, as states like New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.
Deaths above normal in these places peaked before July.
New York City
March 15 – Nov. 21
New Jersey
March 15 – Nov. 21
18,900
38%
213
Washington, D.C.
March 15 – Nov. 7
1,200
32%
170
Connecticut
March 15 – Oct. 24
5,600
30%
158
Louisiana
March 15 – Nov. 14
8,600
29%
186
Illinois
March 15 – Nov. 21
17,200
25%
136
New York (excluding N.Y.C.)
March 15 – Nov. 21
15,600
23%
142
Massachusetts
March 15 – Nov. 14
8,500
22%
124
Maryland
March 15 – Nov. 21
7,300
22%
122
Michigan
March 15 – Nov. 14
13,700
21%
137
Delaware
March 15 – Nov. 21
1,100
19%
119
Colorado
March 15 – Nov. 21
4,500
17%
79
Rhode Island
March 15 – Nov. 14
1,100
16%
106
Pennsylvania
March 15 – Nov. 21
13,400
15%
105
Virginia
March 15 – Nov. 14
6,800
15%
80
Vermont
March 15 – Nov. 21
400
13%
80
New Hampshire
March 15 – Nov. 21
800
10%
64
Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.
From March 15 through Nov. 14, the most recent date with reliable statistics, estimated excess deaths were 41 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through Dec. 2, the total death toll would be about 380,000.
Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.
Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.
Drug deaths have also risen steeply so far this year over last year, according to preliminary mortality data collected by The New York Times, though this increase had already started before the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting social disruptions.
Methodology
Total death numbers are estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the centers and adjusted to account for typical lags in the reporting of deaths.
Our charts show weekly deaths above or below normal. They include weeks in which the C.D.C. estimates the data to be at least 90 percent complete or estimated deaths are above expected death numbers. Because states vary somewhat in their speed in reporting deaths to the federal government, these state charts show death trends for slightly different time periods. We have not included weeks in which reported deaths were less than 50 percent of the C.D.C. estimate.
Expected deaths were calculated with a simple model based on the weekly number of all-cause deaths from 2017 to 2019 released by the C.D.C., adjusted to account for trends, like population changes, over time.
Excess death numbers are rounded.