O n one of the most important measures of American leadership against Vladimir Putin's aggression, President Joe Biden is now weaker than former President Donald Trump.
That must be our incontrovertible assessment if Axios's reporting on Tuesday is accurate. After all, Jonathan Swan reports that Biden has decided to waive sanctions on a German company involved in completing the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. Absurdly, the Biden administration will sanction Russian ships involved in the pipeline's concluding construction but not the actual company involved in it. This is apparently because Biden believes that sanctioning the pipeline out of existence will cause more harm with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government than it will accrue benefits to NATO and European security.
It is manifestly the wrong assessment. More than that, it is yet more proof that Biden's tough-on-Putin rhetoric is basically just that: rhetoric. Most of the media will ignore this truth, of course. But Biden's decision here is a great gift to Putin.
Consider four specific concerns.
First, Nord Stream 2 will give Putin the means of Europe's long-term energy dependence on Russia. That will allow Putin to leverage European political appeasement in return for Russia's provision of cold winter energy supplies. It will thus weaken the American-led international order. It is an order centered on democratic sovereignty, free trade, and the advancement of basic human rights. It will be of particular concern to NATO allies on Russia's border — notably Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These are governments, it should be noted, that actually spend 2% of their GDP on defense.
Second, Nord Stream 2 will deny Ukraine access to billions of dollars in annual energy transit funds by displacing energy supplies from Ukrainian pipelines. For a country under escalating Russian military pressure, Biden's action represents a clear betrayal. There are proposals to mitigate the costs on Ukraine in this regard. The scholar Rachel Rizzo has offered some good ones, but I fear that Germany will ultimately renege on any obligations it now makes.
Third, Biden's decision fits with other recent actions, which reflect obvious weakness toward Putin. Notable, here, include Biden's begging of Putin for a summit and his pathetic abandonment last week of a U.S. company to pay $5 million ransom to hackers. Hackers, it should be said, who are almost certainly operating under the supervision of Russia's FSB intelligence service.
Finally, there's the point that Germany has done nothing to deserve this gift. Biden should have sanctioned Nord Stream 2 in the hope of Merkel's replacement by the impressive Annalena Baerbock in Germany's September elections. The facts of Merkel's record toward critical U.S. interests are clear.
The chancellor is a de facto Chinese Communist Party saint, one who has broken her pledge to reach the basic 2%-of-GDP NATO defense spending target, and who gives free reign to Russian GRU chemical weapons facilities on her soil. This later point won't look terribly good for Biden when he finally has to admit that the GRU has been destroying the nervous systems of American patriots around the world.
Put simply, Biden might say the right things about NATO. He might even do some of the right things. But actions such as this are great gifts to Putin. If this is Biden being tough on the ex-KGB man, I hope we never have to learn what Biden's weakness is.