World population set to decline for the first time in centuries says study

December 9, 2021

2 min read

According to a new study published in the Lancet journal, the world population will decline for the first time in the next century.

The world’s population is currently estimated to be at 7.8 billion people. According to the estimate, the global population would peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064. Then it will fall to 8.79 billion in 2100.

Due to low birth rates and aging populations, up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and others, might see their populations fall by more than 50%.

China is the world’s most populated country. But it will see its population drop from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

The study noted the global trend of population decline. But it also predicted that some sections of the world would witness an increase in population.

This encompasses North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is likely to triple in population from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 over the century.

According to the study, the population of India, the world’s second-most populous country, will be approximately 1.09 billion in 2100.

World population decline driven by fertility decline

Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Stein Emil Vollset, told IFLScience, “The last time that global population declined was in the mid 14th century, due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.”

According to the report, girls’ education and better access to contraception will reduce fertility and population growth.

These factors influence the fertility rate, which is the most important determinant of the population. The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime. The worldwide total fertility rate is likely to steadily drop, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. It is significantly below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman) necessary to maintain population levels, he added.