• Belt and Road Initiative - The New Silk Road

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  • Catalonia and the Belt and Road initiative - OBOReurope
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    • Wed, 01 Nov 2017 08:34
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    • On 1 October 2017 a referendum on independence was held in Catalonia. The possible independence of this region would have a major impact on the EU participation in the ''Belt and Road initiative''.
    • The independence of Catalonia could create new opportunities for Chinese investments in Europe, especially in the tourism and transport sectors (with the port of Barcelona).
    • Furthermore, newly independent Catalonia would need to build an international network and seek support from foreign powers. China would then have a card to play.
    • In the early days following its independence, Catalonia would probably not automatically be a member of the European Union. It is possible that Spain opposes its accession. Catalonia may choose not to apply the European rules on investment (in particular on public tenders). Failure to apply Community rules would enable Chinese companies to invest relatively easily in a major Mediterranean region.
    • But, it is not clear that China would be interested in this new state. Recognition by Beijing may not be granted. It is the policy of China, which itself faces several separatist movements within its own territory (Tibet, Hong Kong), not to support secessionists in foreign countries.
    • In the event of a crisis between Madrid and Barcelona, '‹'‹Beijing would prefer its relations with Spain to protect its interests. In 2016, China invested nearly '‚¬ 1.7 billion in Spain.
    • Even if it were to be independent, Catalonia would take several years to become a viable state: for example, the country would have to solve some border issues with Spain and face internal tensions from the many pro-Madrid supporters. This lack of stability could discourage all foreign investors.
    • The independence of Catalonia would also create many challenges to Sino-European relations. The new Catalonia would certainly aim to integrate the European Union. Lengthy negotiations would have to be conducted between Brussels and Barcelona. The EU that still has not solved the Brexit issue, would become even more fragile with Catalonian independence.. This new episode could slow down possible free trade agreement or partnerships for the new Silk Roads with China.
    • Finally, China could turn away from the European continent because of the possible consequences of the independence of Catalonia over other European regions. Growing separatism in Europe could lead China to no longer consider Europe as a reliable partner.
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  • The Real Referendum Should Be for Spain To Vote To Join the New Silk Road | THE UNHIVED MIND NEWS
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    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 22:57
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    • The following policy statement was issued by the Spain LaRouche Movement on October 2, 2017, translated into English
    • Ten years ago, the world financial system, riddled with filthy toxic derivatives with no intrinsic value whatsoever, exploded, bringing down with it the world's physical economies. The policies of austerity measures and issuing fiat money across the trans-Atlantic region by the central banks and the IMF, have left the societies of that region with no future. Spain, along with other European countries, has been a leading victim of that tsunami of physical-economic disintegration, which is reflected in high youth unemployment rates, a growing percentage of the population at risk of poverty and social exclusion, and an abrupt drop in wages. All of this under the dictates of the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank '-- the Troika.
    • However, in 2013 a ray of light came from the East, specifically from Astana (Kazakhstan), where Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the creation of an economic belt linking the nations of Asia, which he called the New Silk Road, and which he later broadened to what China today calls the Belt and Road Initiative. This infrastructure and re-industrialization mega-project, based on the most advanced technologies, is centered on a humanist win-win principle in relations among sovereign nation-states, on agapic love of others '-- principles shared by Confucianism and Platonic Christianity. This new architecture in international relations, with the Belt and Road as its cornerstone, is inspired by a campaign carried out for more than 25 years by the statesman Lyndon LaRouche and his wife, Helga Zepp-LaRouche, for the creation of a World Land-Bridge based on a series of development corridors integrating all of the peoples of the planet, raising their living conditions far above the poverty line. Precisely this has been China's national plan, which to date has raised some 700 million human beings out of poverty, with the goal of completely eradicating it in their country by the year 2020.
    • And Spain? What role does it play? In its best moments, over the centuries Spain has played the role of being a bridge for humanist ideas among different civilizations. During the Middle Ages, it was a hotbed of scientific, technological and cultural progress, which produced great thinkers such as Ram"n Llull, Alfonso X The Wise, and Al-Farabi, true Platonists who promoted the image of Man as a creative being in the physical universe. Llull and Alfonso X's translations of Platonists works from Arabic to Latin and vernacular languages, such as Castilian and Catalan, directly inspired individuals who contributed to the Golden Renaissance in Europe, such as Nicholas of Cusa and Dante Alighieri, and likewise shaped the thinking of the creator of the science of physical economy, Gottfried Leibniz.
    • Later, Spain helped execute the last will and testament of Nicholas of Cusa (1401 '' 1464), to create a republican Nation state far from Europe's oligarchical corruption, which would promote Man's creative abilities, and save Mankind from the dark age which it had endured for more than a century. As part of that project, Spain opened the way to the discovery of the Americas. It also contributed to the creation of the American republic, whose Declaration of Independence and Federal Constitution are based on the Renaissance principles developed by Cusa and later Leibniz.
    • Spain has always been, in its moments of greatness, the bridge which united different cultures, the land where a true ecumenicism could develop, albeit briefly, among the three great monotheistic religions, as was reflected in the Toledo School of Translation.
    • Today, in the 21st century, Spain can once again become the World Land-Bridge's bridge to Asia, Africa and the Americas. This year, the Spanish government took a first step towards joining the win-win paradigm which China is offering through the New Silk Road.
    • The real secession discussion which should dominate Spain's national attention, should not be that of Catalonia separating from Spain '-- which would only benefit the City of London and Wall Street's geopolitical Great Game '-- but that of separating Spain from the bankrupt and genocidal system of the European Union, of the Troika, which is the expression in Europe of the bankrupt monetary system whose austerity measures have left millions of Spanish youth with no future. A united Spain must declare its independence and reclaim is national sovereignty, and fully join the New Silk road. This is a pregnant moment.
    • Spaniards: Don't let yourselves be swept away by the current pessimism induced by the British Empire, the masters of the current bankrupt system. Inspire yourselves in Llull, Alfonso X, Charles III, Bernardo Ward, Al-Farabi, Goya, Campones, and of course, in Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra. We have excellent thinkers who showed what Spain is capable of contributing to elevate Mankind to its creative potential. Let us, united, declare our independence as a sovereign Nation state from the austerity imposed by the European Union, and join the New Silk Road to get Spain's physical economy off the ground, and give its population, especially its youth, a purpose in creating a better future through productive high-skilled jobs which raise our per capita and per square kilomenter physical economic productivity.
    • Throughout history we have been the bridge among cultures, promoting the integration of civilizations by bringing forth the best and the good of each. It is time to take a step forward and return to being that bridge which is our true identity.
  • Unless China changes tack, India won't be the only country opposing One Belt, One Road '-- Quartz
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    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:39
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    • China's Belt and Road Forum, hosted with great fanfare, signals the priority of this flagship connectivity initiative while also underlining its credentials as the new ''shaper'' of global trends and norms.
    • Exhorting all countries to participate, Chinese president Xi Jinping suggested that ''what we hope to create is a big family of harmonious co-existence.''
    • But India, an emerging economy that shares a contested border with China, worries about containment and new pathways for aggression from Pakistan. Other nations wonder if hegemonistic designs are hidden behind the rationality of connectivity and trade. The policy initiative aims to enhance China's centrality in the global economic unilateral approach. But how the project is conceived and implemented so far belies the rhetoric of multilateralism emanating from Beijing.
    • Taking inspiration from the ancient Silk Road trading route, China's One Belt One Road initiative, or OBOR, hopes to link more than 65 countries, encompassing up to 40% of global GDP. Xi's signature foreign paradigm'--linking China to Asia, Europe, and Africa via an ambitious network of ports, roads, rail, and other infrastructure projects. Beginning in China's Fujian province, the projected Maritime Silk Route passes through the Malacca Strait to the Indian Ocean, moving along the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, ending in Venice.
    • The scale and scope of OBOR is huge, with at least $1 trillion in investments. At the Shanghai summit, Xi announced an additional $124 billion in funding for OBOR, including $8.7 billion in assistance to developing countries. China, desperate to deflect criticism that OBOR is primarily an instrument for Chinese expansionism, managed to convince heads of 29 states and governments to participate in the summit, including Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Italian prime minister Paolo Gentiloni, Russian president Vladimir Putin, and United Nations chief Antonio Guterres. Most western leaders sent representatives.
    • The West views this as a Chinese bilateral project.
    • The West views this as a Chinese bilateral project being touted as a multilateral venture. The outgoing president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China complains that the OBOR has ''been hijacked by Chinese companies, which have used it as an excuse to evade capital controls, smuggling money out of the country by disguising it as international investments and partnerships.''
    • The rest of the world is more receptive. Lavishing praise on China for the OBOR initiative, while targeting the US, Putin warned at the summit that ''protectionism is becoming the new normal,'' adding that the ''ideas of openness and free trade are increasingly often being rejected (even) by those who until very recently expounded them.''
    • South Asia also welcomes OBOR, and most of India's neighbours attended. India refused to participate, maintaining opposition to China's investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India, announced in an official statement: ''No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.'' Indian foreign secretary S Jaishankar articulated this position at the 2017 Raisina Dialogue: ''China is very sensitive about its sovereignty. The economic corridor passes through an illegal territory, an area that we call Pak-occupied Kashmir. You can imagine India's reaction at the fact that such a project has been initiated without consulting us.'' Prime minister Narendra Modi reinforced this point, asserting that ''connectivity in itself cannot override or undermine the sovereignty of other nations.''
    • The advantages for India of joining China's multi-billion dollar OBOR initiative are apparent, and the economic logic is compelling. With bilateral trade of $70.08 billion in 2016, China remains India's largest trading partner. Last year also saw record Chinese investments into India, reaching close to $1 billion. Compared to this, China's economic ties with Pakistan remain underwhelming, with bilateral trade volume reaching $13.77 billion last year.
    • Yet, against the backdrop of deteriorating Sino-Indian ties, India cannot feasibly join the OBOR project without challenging the very foundations of its foreign policy. The $55-billion CPEC would link China's Muslim-dominated Xinjiang Province to the Gwadar deep-sea port in Pakistan. Despite the rhetoric, Beijing's priority in pumping huge sums into a highly volatile Pakistani territory is not to provide economic relief for Pakistan's struggling economy or to promote regional economic cooperation.
    • The development may not subdue restive Muslims in either country. The challenges are huge as underscored by the related militarisation. Pakistan has deployed more than 15,000 troops to protect the CPEC, and is raising a naval contingent for protection of the Gwadar; China will also station part of its growing naval forces at Gwadar. Concerns are already being expressed that Pakistan could become a Chinese colony once the corridor is operationalised. For the Chinese, security in the province of Balochistan is the biggest concern. Economic conditions in Balochistan remain dire with over two-thirds of its inhabitants living in poverty, and local opposition to the project is mounting by the day. Baloch separatists, especially those from the Baloch Liberation Army, are reported to have abducted and killed foreigners, particularly the Chinese. Such turmoil could have regional consequences.
    • The long-term strategic consequences of OBOR for India could also allow China to consolidate its presence in the Indian Ocean at India's expense. Indian critics contend that China may use its economic power to increase its geopolitical leverage and, in doing so, intensify security concerns for India. CPEC gives China a foothold in the western Indian Ocean with the Gwadar port, located near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, where Chinese warships and a submarine have surfaced. Access here allows China greater potential to control maritime trade in that part of the world'--a vulnerable point for India, which sources more than 60% of its oil supplies from the Middle East. What's more, if CPEC does resolve China's ''Malacca dilemma'''--its over-reliance on the Malacca Straits for the transport of its energy resources'--this gives Asia's largest economy greater operational space to pursue unilateral interests in maritime matters to the detriment of the freedom of navigation and trade-energy security of several states in the Indian Ocean region, including India.
    • The Maritime Silk Road reinforces New Delhi's concerns about encirclement.
    • More generally, the Maritime Silk Road reinforces New Delhi's concerns about encirclement. Beijing's port development projects in the Indian Ocean open the possibility of dual-use facilities, complicating India's security calculus.
    • India has its own set of connectivity initiatives such as Myanmar's Kaladan project, the Chabahar port project with Iran, as well as the north-south corridor with Russia, which could be potentially leveraged. The proposed 7,200-kilometre International North South Transportation Corridor is a ship, rail, and road transportation system connecting the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran to Russia and north Europe. The Indian and Japanese governments are working on a ''vision document'' for developing an Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, largely meant to propel growth and investment in Africa, in part a response to China's ever-growing presence on the continent.
    • The Belt and Road Initiative is a highly ambitious undertaking in line with China's aspirations to emerge as the central economic power at a time when the United States makes plans to step back from global affairs. Its success depends on China's ability to move beyond the bilateral framework and allow a truly multilateral vision for the project to evolve. Otherwise, China can expect to contend with opposition from more countries than India.
    • This post originally appeared on YaleGlobal Online. We welcome your comments at ideas.india@qz.com.
  • Economic corridor - Wikipedia
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    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:39
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    • Economic corridors are integrated networks of infrastructure within a geographical area designed to stimulateeconomic development.[1] Corridors may be developed within a country or between countries.[2] Corridors exist in Asia,[1]Africa,[2] and other areas.
    • Economic corridors often feature integrated infrastructure, such as highways, railroads and ports, and may link cities or countries. Corridors may be created to link manufacturing hubs, areas with high supply and demand, and manufacturers of value-added goods.[3] When implemented, economic corridors are often one of a package of different measures[1] including infrastructure development, visa and transport agreements, and standardisation.[4] Consideration of social needs, such as housing, is often considered.[2]
    • The Asian Development Bank coined the term in 1998.[3]
    • Examples [ edit] See also [ edit] References [ edit]
  • 'Silk Road' freight train from China arrives in Barking - BBC News
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    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:30
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    • Media caption The first freight train from China to the UK arrives in London, having crossed seven countries.The first direct rail freight service from China to the UK has completed its 18-day trip and arrived in London.
    • The train left the city of Yiwu, on China's east coast, this month and travelled 7,500 miles (12,000km), crossing seven countries, before arriving at a freight depot in Barking.
    • The service delivered 34 containers of clothes and high street goods.
    • China Railway already runs services between China and other European cities, including Madrid and Hamburg.
    • The service passed through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Belgium and France before entering the UK via the Channel Tunnel.
    • In order to make the journey, a number of different locomotives and wagons were used as the railways of the former Soviet Union states have a larger rail gauge.
    • However, the rail firms say the service is still cheaper than air freight and faster than sending goods by sea.
    • The service is part of China's One Belt, One Road programme - reviving the ancient Silk Road trading routes to the West.
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    • Media caption Travelling from China to LondonIn Yiwu, in eastern China, a bright orange locomotive pulling 44 containers laden with suitcases, clothes and an assortment of household goods set off on a 7,500-mile (12,000km) journey to western Europe.
    • Ten containers were taken off at the German cargo hub of Duisburg. The rest made up the first cargo train from China to arrive in London at Barking's Eurohub freight terminal.
    • London is the 15th European city to find its way on to the ever-expanding map of destinations for China's rail cargo. Last year, 1,702 freight trains made the voyage to Europe, more than double the 2015 figure.
    • Yiwu Timex Industrial Investments, which is running this service with China's state-run railways, says prices are half that of air cargo and cut two weeks off the journey time by sea.
    • Read more: All aboard the China-to-London freight train
  • China's New Silk Road Is Getting Muddy '' Foreign Policy
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    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:27
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    • A Chinese worker fixes pipes at a construction site in the capital Khartoum on February 2, 2012. Africa, where China has emerged as a major funder of infrastructure projects, is growing particularly attractive for migrant workers seeking to earn good money, but the work does not go without its share of risks, as was illustrated last week by the abduction of the road-builders in Sudan and the technicians and engineers working for a military-owned cement factory in Egypt. AFP PHOTO/ASHRAF SHAZLY (Photo credit should read ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP/Getty Images)
    • With the future of U.S.-China relations an open question for the incoming Donald Trump administration, many have focused on whether the president-elect's promise to withdraw from negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will enhance Beijing's growing influence in East Asia. But rather than hand-wringing over TPP's ignominious failure, Asia watchers should turn their attention to China's unprecedented $1 trillion strategic gambit: the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, aka ''One Belt, One Road'' (OBOR). Launched in 2013 as President Xi Jinping's signature initiative, OBOR holds great promise, as well as potential pitfalls, for both China and its neighbors.
    • OBOR is a game-changing plan to bring about the next stage of globalization, a Sinocentric vision that harks back to the ancient Silk Roads '-- but this time on Beijing's terms. The goal is to create a new economic ''belt'' of connective infrastructure westward into Eurasia and a new maritime ''road'' connecting China to Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Examples of OBOR projects include a railway linking China to Laos and another one through Mongolia and Kazakhstan; gas and oil pipelines through Turkmenistan and Myanmar; road and port development in Sri Lanka; and the cornerstone $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which encompasses highways, pipelines, coal-based electricity generation, and the Chinese-operated Gwadar port.
    • OBOR is primarily a ''build it and they will come'' initiative. Rather than improving the host country's industrial or productive capacity, it expands and strengthens transportation and energy arteries, including ports, rails, communications, electricity, and pipelines. It promises to stimulate the ailing Chinese economy in the short and medium terms through construction and telecoms contracts and capital goods provision while in the long term opening new trade routes so Chinese products can fill store shelves in OBOR countries for decades to come.
    • Lending to your neighbors to finance infrastructure projects that you build for them is a shrewd way to make friends while generating business for Chinese firms and earning better returns than U.S. Treasury bills. But the approach does carry significant economic and political risks for China, as well as for recipient countries and local communities. Under OBOR, China is loaning hundreds of billions of dollars to fund infrastructure construction in foreign countries during an economic slowdown at home '-- a recipe that could spell disaster if it fails to stimulate the Chinese economy or leaves poor countries hopelessly in hock to Beijing.
    • For two decades, China has promoted an increasingly expansionist ''going-out'' policy among its state-owned enterprises that includes strong financial and political support for construction and telecoms companies to penetrate Asian and African markets. OBOR takes this approach to a new, and far riskier, level. Beijing has set aside nearly $1 trillion to make concessionary loans to about 60 developing countries via its policy banks '-- principally the China Development Bank and Silk Road Fund '-- to underwrite the construction of approximately 900 infrastructure projects. After terms are reached with a host country, funds are transferred directly into the Beijing-based bank accounts of China's state-owned enterprises, which build the project often with Chinese materials. This is a model Beijing has employed extensively in Africa. Once Beijing's political blessing for a project is communicated via funding from its policy banks, China's national- or provincial-level state-owned enterprises build it, often with little or no political or financial risk assessment or market research.
    • China's sluggish domestic economy and fears of a U.S.-China trade war have increased the pressure on officials to approve OBOR projects and move them forward expeditiously. Policymakers are hoping OBOR can help mitigate falling demand and deploy excess capacity in Chinese construction firms and their suppliers. In China, it seems everyone is banking on the Silk Road revival; provincial and local officials, along with suppliers from around the region, have been attending massive Silk Road-themed product forums like the China-Eurasia Expo held in Urumqi last September. Even Maotai, China's most famous brand of baijiu, a distilled Chinese liquor, is hoping to hitch a ride on OBOR to expand sales and international distribution networks.
    • The problem is due diligence. OBOR involves risking hundreds of billions of dollars on the assumption that poor countries either can or will pay China back. The lending program's sheer size has already required the Chinese government and party organs to detail hundreds if not thousands of staff to vet scores of projects across a myriad of regulatory, linguistic, and cultural environments. This effort demands intragovernmental coordination across dozens of agencies and state-owned enterprises, many of which have little or no understanding of political or financial risk analysis. With such little experience in Beijing, much OBOR planning has been farmed out to provincial-level officials who are equally unqualified to vet the future profitability of investments in numerous uncertain political, economic, and regulatory environments. Religion is another consideration for the atheist Chinese, since OBOR traverses large swaths of the Muslim world.
    • OBOR represents a massive and unprecedented expansion of connected lending to international borrowers that enmeshes the already deeply indebted Chinese banking system in some of the world's most precarious economic and political environments. Many poor countries are happy to take cheap Chinese loans now and let future leaders and citizens pay them back. Indeed, China's existing loans to friendly governments in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Sri Lanka already portend tens of billions of dollars in potential losses. China's response, especially in Africa, has often been to grant loan forgiveness and then make more loans, which has, in turn, created serious moral hazard. Many governments are banking on China's continued largesse and are thus happy to get as much as they can while they can. Still, even Beijing, which is sitting on $3 trillion in reserves, can't write off bad loans ad infinitum.
    • Another looming problem is graft. Amid Xi's historic crackdown on corruption at home, OBOR could open new international opportunities for Chinese firms to collaborate with each other and their foreign hosts to engage in waste, fraud, and embezzlement. China, which itself ranks an unimpressive 83 on Transparency International's 2015 corruption index, is preparing to build hundreds of projects in some of the least accountable countries in the world, such as Turkmenistan (154), Kyrgyzstan (123), Cambodia (150), and Myanmar (147).
    • Although most of the cash will never leave China, the sheer quantity of equipment and materials, such as steel, concrete, and timber, needed to produce so many projects will provide ample opportunity for pilferage and other types of on-site malfeasance. Indeed, Chinese firms operating in systemically corrupt business and regulatory environments may find it impossible to gain the necessary local support without greasing palms. Corruption could also come via kickbacks or bribes to loan officers from self-interested firms or officials, padding purchase orders, or cut-rate building materials. Such misconduct remains a problem in China itself, and it seems likely the weaker regulatory environments in some OBOR host countries would only exacerbate it. Xi himself seemed to recognize the problem last August when he called for a ''stable, sustainable and risk-controllable financial security system'' to supervise the OBOR initiative.
    • China's business practices are already facing local pushback in several countries where its state-owned enterprises have built energy and infrastructure projects. Some firms have been accused of cutting corners, ignoring safety standards, using secondhand or low-quality materials and equipment, and building environmentally destructive projects, such as hydroelectric dams or coal-fired power plants. Complaints have come from Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia regarding environmental damage and droughts from Chinese hydropower projects along the Mekong River; from Indonesia regarding an ill-fated, over-budget coal power plant and a failed high-speed rail project; and from Myanmar regarding Chinese firms clear-cutting forests.
    • Last month, dock workers at Hambantota port in Sri Lanka held the massive Japanese vehicle carrier Hyperion Highway and its crew hostage for several days after they were cut out of a 99-year lease agreement with the state-owned China Merchants Port Holdings Co. Meanwhile, in Venezuela's Bol­var state rioters looted hundreds of Chinese-owned businesses including shops, supermarkets, and warehouses. In Pakistan, workers on Chinese mining and construction projects have been attacked by Baloch rebels embroiled in separatist struggles with the government. Extensive squabbling among Pakistan's political parties, the military, and local community leaders continues to delay the implementation of numerous CPEC projects.
    • In response, at a rare public address last month in Islamabad, Zheng Xiaosong, the vice minister of the Chinese Communist Party's International Department, called for Pakistan's political parties to ''work together to resolve their differences and make CPEC a success.'' China has also enhanced security. Beijing will soon be deploying navy vessels to help secure Gwadar port, and the China Shipbuilding Trade Co. has turned over two new patrol boats to the Pakistan Maritime Security Agency.
    • But diplomatic platitudes and enhanced security alone cannot protect every OBOR project and may further embroil China in the domestic politics of its neighbors. Without on-site accountability, environmental degradation and community displacement, which have already become problems with China's projects in Southeast Asia, are likely to fuel local resistance.
    • OBOR presents significant domestic economic and political risks for China. There is real tension between the Chinese government's drive to invest in riskier developing countries via OBOR and private capital's flight to safety amid a domestic economic slowdown and growing protectionist fears. Just as Beijing is pushing OBOR on its state-owned enterprises, private Chinese investors are finding ever more ingenious ways to offshore their resources in safer assets, particularly U.S. real estate. Beijing has responded with increasingly pervasive capital controls, but technology has made these difficult to enforce.
    • More than a decade ago, the United States called on China to be a ''responsible stakeholder,'' both in its neighborhood and beyond. The years since have seen the rise of a new, and increasingly assertive, Chinese foreign policy. OBOR is a big part of Beijing's new approach and a potential harbinger for a new stage of Sinocentric globalization. It is a grand vision with wide-reaching political consequences both at home and abroad. If it succeeds, China will become the unquestioned Eurasian hegemon. But Beijing's efforts likewise carry enormous economic and political risks that Chinese policymakers know they must mitigate if President Xi's initiative is to live up to its billing. The question is whether OBOR can overcome the logistical, political, security, and financial challenges identified above '-- or be thwarted by them, losing hundreds of billions of dollars and creating a slew of disgruntled debtor neighbors with landscapes scarred by white-elephant projects. Only time will tell.
    • Photo credit: ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP/Getty Images
    • Joshua Eisenman is an assistant professor at the University of Texas at Austin's Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs and senior fellow for China studies at the American Foreign Policy Council.
  • India has its reasons to boycott China's Belt Road Initiative | editorials | Hindustan Times
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    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:14
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    • The only major country to openly boycott the Belt Road Forum, India has emerged as the most vocal opponent of China's continent-spanning infrastructure project. The reasons for New Delhi's skepticism about the Belt-Road Initiative (BRI)'‰ may not seem evident. They become clear, however, when seen through the prism of geopolitics.
    • India's position regarding what was originally called the One Belt, One Road has evolved over time '-- and become increasingly hostile as the nature of China's plans in the subcontinent and Indian Ocean area become clear. New Delhi's began with pointing out that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the flagship project of the BRI, would run through territory that it claimed. More important was the unwillingness of Beijing to agree to New Delhi's requests for consultations on the objectives, nature and financing of the BRI. However, as China's infrastructure projects have begun to roll out the alarm bells have been ringing. In many countries, notably Sri Lanka but also elsewhere, China's construction of ports and highways have resulted in huge debts, usurious interest rates, bribing of political leaders and '-- once the government in question is sufficiently entangled '-- attempts to influence that country's foreign policy.
    • This is not true in all segments of the BRI, but it seems prevalent in the areas closest to India. Even in the case of the Pakistan corridor, the debt obligation is such that the main lesson is that Beijing is happy to entrap even its closest allies. The layout of most of the land-based projects is telling '-- almost of all it connects countries to China but very little connects other countries to each other.
    • It is increasingly difficult to buy Beijing's arguments that their plan to splash a few trillion dollars around the world is a benign gift to the world. This should not be a surprise to anyone and is not necessarily an argument against BRI. Great powers often end up providing global public goods through selfish actions. In any case, India has never said it would try to undermine or block Chinese projects in other countries '-- merely that it would not be signing up for the initiative. It remains an open question why Beijing is so insistent that India endorse the BRI, especially given that it has seen fit to turn against New Delhi in almost every other international fora including the Nuclear Suppliers Group. At the very least, there needs to be a far more transparent dialogue with New Delhi that, so far, the Middle Kingdom has refused. The recent forum should have been a lesson on the limits of geopolitics through Chinese whispers.
  • How Catalonia could spark more independence bids as European nations face being ripped apart
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    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:11
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    • CATALONIA is threatening to declare itself independent from Spain within days following a violent referendum.
    • But Spain isn't the only country grappling with a major independence movement and there are fears that it could lead to a domino effect across Europe. So which other countries are struggling with separatists?
    • Spain isn't the only country grappling with a major independence movementCataloniaCatalonia in the north-east of Spain is home to 7.5million residents and the country's second city, Barcelona.
    • It is one of Spain's richest and most highly industrialised regions with its own devolved government as well as its own language and culture.
    • EPA
    • People take part in the demonstration held in Lerida, Catalonia, northeastern SpainMany Catalans think of themselves as a separate nation from the rest of Spain partly due to memories of the Francisco Franco dictatorship, which attempted to suppress Catalan identity.
    • In 1938 he took control of the region, killing 3,500 people and forcing many others into exile until his death.
    • Today, the region represents a fifth of Spain's GDP and there is anger that the population pay more taxes to central government than are returned to the area.
    • Protesters holding the flag of Catalonia. High tension as people hit the streets to cast their votes for Catalonia independence. Clashes between the police and citizens happened throughout the region.It recently pushed ahead with a referendum on independence, despite the Spanish government labelling it illegal.
    • Police launched a brutal crackdown against protesters and leaders have now promised to declare independence from Madrid within days.
    • Tens of thousands take to the streets of Barcelona protesting at police treatment during Catalonia independence referendumBasque CountryAlamy
    • View over Playa de La Concha beach at high tide in Basque CountryLike Catalonia, Spain's Basque region '' straddling the north-western border with France '' has its own language and culture.
    • Terror group Euskadi Ta Askatasun (ETA) struggled for years to win full independence from Madrid, with more than 800 people losing their lives during decades of violence.
    • The armed campaign ended in 2011 and the region enjoys some autonomy, being the only one in Spain to keep the majority of the funds raised from taxes.
    • But there is still a section of the population who want independence, with thousands of Basques recently taking to the street in support of Catalan independence.
    • ItalyAlamy
    • Park benches on waterfront, Venice, Veneto, ItalyVeneto and Lombardy in northern Italy are to hold non-binding consultative referendums on October 22 to ask voters if they favour independence from Rome.
    • Politicians in the regions, which together account for nearly a third of Italy's economy, are fighting for a bigger share of tax income and, in some cases, for secession.
    • The Italian identity is one of the hotly debated issues in Italy as the country only unified in the 1860s.
    • Italy's mainly German-speaking province of South Tyrol declared itself independent in early 1919.
    • The roots of the dispute date back to the fascist era, after the region, once part of Austria, was annexed by Italy after World War One.
    • ScotlandPA:Press Association
    • Nicola Sturgeon wants a second referendum once the outlines of the deal for Britain's exit from the EU become clearBefore 1286 Scotland was a defined kingdom with its own rights, laws and sense of identity.
    • But it was bought to its knees when King Edward I of England claimed the right of succession to the Scottish throne.
    • That divide between England and Scotland was never wider than during the Wars of Independence in the 13th and 14th centuries.
    • In 1707, just over a century after King James VI of Scotland became King James I of England, the Acts of Union formally united Scotland with England and Wales as Great Britain.
    • In 2014, Scotland was granted a vote on independence after years of campaigning by the Scottish National Party (SNP).
    • The country voted to remain part of the UK by a margin of 55 per cent to 45 per cent.
    • But the UK has since voted to leave the EU '' with England and Wales voting in favour, while Scotland voted against.
    • SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon therefore called for a new independence referendum before the last General Election, to be held in the autumn of next year or the spring of 2019.
    • But after the SNP lost 21 seats, the SNP boss has been reflecting on her plans after her party's share of the vote fell from 50 per cent to 37 per cent.
    • BelgiumAlamy
    • Scene along the Graslei bank, lined with Flemish gabled houses, Gravensteen Castle beyond, in the centre of Ghent, BelgiumThe majority of Belgium is split between the Flemish-speaking northern region and French-speaking Wallonia in the south.
    • The New Flemish Alliance, the largest party in the country with 33 out of 150 seats, wants to separate from the rest.
    • Under leader Bart De Wever, who leads Belgium's Chamber of Representatives, the party hopes to gradually move towards an autonomous Flanders.
    • The divisions run so deep they helped fuel a crisis that saw the country left without a government for over a year in 2010-11.
    • FranceAlamy
    • Corsica, France Citadel Miollis on the beachCorsica, the Mediterranean island of 330,000 people is a part of France with its own language and a troubled history.
    • The separatist National Liberation Front of Corsica (FLNC) ended its armed struggle in June 2014 in favour of a political process and since 2015 nationalists have been leading the island's assembly.
    • Corsica today has a special administrative status that grants its certain powers and retains a strong sense of autonomy.
    • On September 22 the Corsica assembly underlined "the indisputable legitimacy of the government of Catalonia".
    • DenmarkAlamy
    • The village Kunoy, Kunoy Island, Faroe IslandDenmark's Faroe Islands, home to 48,000 people, will hold a referendum in April 2018 on a new constitution that would grant self-determination.
    • The islands have been autonomous since 1948, although foreign affairs and defence are still the domain of Copenhagen.
    • GermanyAlamy
    • View across the River Main to Miltenberg, Bavaria, GermanyBavaria is home to Munich, Germany's third-largest city, and boasts a total land mass of 27,239 square miles.
    • Bavarian nationalism has been popular since the incorporation of the state into Germany in 1871.
    • Various attempts at independence have taken part in the years since, with the Bavaria Party continuing the campaign in recent years.
    • UkraineReuters
    • Crew members sit atop T-72 tanks during a joint military drills of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic forces and the Luhansk People's Republics forces at the Torez range outside the rebel-held city of DonetskThe eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk declared itself independent from the central government in Kiev in 2014 to join Russia.
    • The crisis in Ukraine began in November 2013 when pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych's government abandoned a deal with the EU in favour of stronger ties with Russia.
    • Ukraine has been torn between east and west since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
    • Ukrainian is the main language in western regions - where there is also a long-standing aspiration for integration with Europe. But Russian is predominant in parts of the east and south.
    • NYC 'TERROR ATTACK'Eight dead after van driver 'shouting Allahu Akhbar' mows down cyclists
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    • KIM'S DISASTERNorth Korea nuclear tunnel COLLAPSES killing 200 amid radioactive leak fears
    • 'get the f*** out of my face'Drunk mum killed stranger by shoving him in front of a tram
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    • 'IT MAKES MY SKIN CRAWL'Kevin Spacey Oscars speech hinted at 'misconduct' says playwright
  • Deadly form of plague continues to spread across Africa | Daily Mail Online
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Wed, 01 Nov 2017 08:24
    • Health chiefs are desperately trying to contain a deadly outbreak of airborne plague in Africa that has prompted warnings in nine countries.
    • More than 1,300 cases have now been reported in Madagascar, health chiefs have revealed, as nearby nations have been placed on high alert.
    • Two thirds of those are suspected to be pneumonic - described as the 'deadliest and most rapid form of plague', World Health Organization figures show.
    • The deadly disease is caused by the same bacteria that wiped out at least 50 million people in Europe in the 1300s.
    • However, the lethal form currently spreading is different to the bubonic strain which was behind history's Black Death. Pneumonic can spread through coughing and can kill within 24 hours.
    • The outbreak is moving quickly, with several British holiday hotspots now deemed at risk of the epidemic spreading, including Seychelles, South Africa and La Reunion.
    • Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Comoros and Mauritius are the six other countries to have received the heightened alert.
    • It has been reported as many as 50 aid workers are believed to have been among the people infected.
    • The African branch of the WHO states 93 people have lost their lives to the disease so far, lower than the 124 noted in official UN figures.
    • A WHO official said: 'The risk of the disease spreading is high at national level'... because it is present in several towns and this is just the start of the outbreak.'
    • More than 1,300 cases have now been reported in Madagascar, health chiefs have revealed, as nearby nations have been placed on high alert
    • More than 1,300 cases of the deadly airborne plague that is spreading across Africa have now been reported, health chiefs have revealed
    • However, amid widespread fears it could reach Europe and wreak havoc, the WHO has stressed the overall global risk is considered to be 'low'.
    • How many people have died?
    • The statement questions the UN figures released last week that warned the plague outbreak has infected less than 1,200.
    • WHO admitted the outbreaks have centered in cities, including the capital of Madagascar, Antananarivo - heightening the risk of it spreading.
    • Growing concerns
    • Officials are growing concerned as around two thirds of the cases are suspected to be pneumonic plague, spread through coughing, sneezing or spitting.
    • It is more deadly then the bubonic variation of the disease which killed a third of Europe's population in the 1300s before being largely wiped out.
    • Madagascar sees regular outbreaks of the disease, but this one has caused alarm due to how quickly it has spread and a high number of fatalities.
    • Two thirds of those are suspected to be pneumonic - described as the 'deadliest and most rapid form of plague', World Health Organization figures show
    • This lethal form, different to bubonic - which killed 50 million in the 1300s, is spread through the air and can kill within just 72 hours of contracting it
    • Like the bubonic form that often is found in Madagascar's remote highlands, it can be treated with common antibiotics if caught in time.
    • HOW DID THE OUTBREAK BEGIN?Health officials are unsure how this year's outbreak began.
    • However, bubonic plague which is endemic in rural parts of Madagascar can turn into the pneumonic form if left untreated.
    • Pneumonic plague, which is more virulent than other forms, can then be passed on through the air.
    • The bubonic form is spread from fleas that carry the Yersinia pestis bacteria which then bite humans.
    • It is believed they contract the bacteria from rats fleeing forest fires and striking rural communities.
    • The first death this year occurred on August 28 when a passenger died in a public taxi en route to a town on the east coast.
    • Two others who came into contact with the passenger also died.
    • This outbreak is the first time the disease has affected the Indian Ocean island's two biggest cities, Antananarivo and Toamasina, officials said.
    • Around 600 cases are reported each year on the island. But this year's outbreak is expected to dwarf previous ones as it has struck so early.
    • Drafting in help
    • International agencies have so far sent more than one million doses of antibiotics to Madagascar. Nearly 20,000 respiratory masks have also been donated.
    • However, the WHO advises against travel or trade restrictions. It has previously asked for $5.5 million (£4.2m) to support the plague response.
    • Despite its guidance, Air Seychelles, one of Madagascar's biggest airlines, stopped flying temporarily earlier in the month to try and curb the spread.
    • A Foreign Office spokesman previously said: 'There is currently an outbreak of pneumonic and bubonic plague in Madagascar.
    • 'Outbreaks of plague tend to be seasonal and occur mainly during the rainy season, with around 500 cases reported annually.
    • BUBONIC PLAGUE: WIPED OUT A THIRD OF EUROPE IN THE 14TH CENTURY Bubonic plague is one of the most devastating diseases in history, having killed around 100million people during the 'Black Death' in the 14th century.
    • Drawings and paintings from the outbreak, which wiped out about a third of the European population, depict town criers saying 'bring out your dead' while dragging trailers piled with infected corpses.
    • It is caused by a bacterium known as Yersinia pestis, which uses the flea as a host and is usually transmitted to humans via rats.
    • The disease causes grotesque symptoms such as gangrene and the appearance of large swellings on the groin, armpits or neck, known as 'buboes'.
    • It kills up to two thirds of sufferers within just four days if it is not treated, although if antibiotics are administered within 24 hours of infection patients are highly likely to survive.
    • After the Black Death arrived in 1347 plague became a common phenomenon in Europe, with outbreaks recurring regularly until the 18th century.
    • Bubonic plague has almost completely vanished from the rich world, with 90 per cent of all cases now found in Africa.
    • However, there have been a few non-fatal cases in the U.S. in recent years, while in August 2013 a 15-year-old boy died in Kyrgyzstan after eating a groundhog infected with the disease.
    • Three months later, an outbreak in a Madagascan killed at least 20 people in a week.
    • A year before 60 people died as a result of the infection, more than in any other country in the world.
    • Outbreaks in China have been rare in recent years, and most have happened in remote rural areas of the west.
    • China's state broadcaster said there were 12 diagnosed cases and three deaths in the province of Qinghai in 2009, and one in Sichuan in 2012.
    • In the United States between five and 15 people die every year as a result, mostly in western states.
  • Europe's mixed views on China's One Belt, One Road initiative
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:07
    •  
    • Europe's mixed views on China's One Belt, One Road initiativeSearchThe Brookings InstitutionThe Brookings InstitutionSearchMenuTwitterPlay VideoThe Brookings InstitutionFacebookTwitterYouTubePodcastBrowse NewslettersRSSThe Brookings InstitutionCloseCloseSkip to main content
    • Editor's Note:There has been no unified EU policy toward China's One Belt, One Road initiative, writes Philippe Le Corre. Several EU countries and cities have been particularly receptive to Chinese investors. Others have been more cautious, seeking guarantees from China that it will follow international standards and not exclusively pursue its geostrategic interests. The Lowy Institute originally published this piece.
    • China's One Belt, One Road summit is over, but the Chinese narrative is only just getting started. In a video released by the state-owned media outlet China Daily, a Western father tells his daughter a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) bedtime story: ''China's idea does not only belong to China. It belongs to the world.'' Yet the world'--and Europe in particular'--still has plenty of reservations about the concept.
    • AuthorIn China's mind, most roads'--and belts'--lead to the 500 million-strong European Union consumer market, the world's largest and richest (though the impact of Brexit and the departure of the U.K.'s 65 million consumers remains to be seen). During last week's BRI summit, China insisted it wanted to share ''growth, development and connectivity'' and ''collaborate more closely on concrete projects'' with the EU, but the European Commission's vice president Jyrki Katainen made some different points. In his speech at Beijing, he said that any scheme connecting Europe and Asia should adhere to a number of principles including market rules and international standards, and should complement existing networks and policies. The EU's reservations about China came to a head last year when EU lawmakers voted against China's application for ''market economy status'' under WTO law, which, if granted, would reduce possible penalties in anti-dumping cases. The sore point is steel: China's huge production capacity has flooded world markets and threatened the robust industrial base the European Commission considers essential for jobs, growth, and competitiveness.
    • But while the battle over market economy status continues, China has been steadily increasing its presence in Eastern and Central Europe. In 2012 it created the ''16+1'' mechanism, a platform where the Chinese prime minister meets'--usually once a year'--with the leaders of 16 countries including EU members such as Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and the Baltic states, as well as non-EU members including Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro. This framework has become a launch pad for the Belt and Road Initiative (at least half of the countries have signed BRI memorandums of understanding with China since 2015), and has helped China to build (or in some cases rebuild) close relations with Eastern European countries. After some complaints from Brussels, the European Commission was eventually admitted as an observer the 16+1 group.
    • Major BRI infrastructure projects are now starting to take shape in Europe'--not without controversy. One of China's top state-owned enterprises is building a high-speed railway line between Belgrade, the capital of Serbia and Budapest, the capital of Hungary. A member of the EU, Hungary is currently under investigation for possible violations of EU transparency requirements in public tenders in relation to the project.
    • Athens's Piraeus Harbor is another major piece of infrastructure that has become representative of China's offensive in Europe. Since 2016, the Greek harbor has been controlled by China Ocean Shipping Company (Cosco) which acquired 51 percent of the Port Authority and will be able to acquire a further 16 percent by 2021, following substantial investments. The idea is quite simple: Through the ''Maritime Silk Road'' and the extension of the Suez Canal, China will be able to reach the Mediterranean Sea and will use Piraeus as a platform for Chinese companies and goods. Cosco intends to turn Piraeus into one of the largest container transit ports in Europe.
    • In 2016, Chinese foreign direct investments in the EU reached 35 billion euros, a 77 percent increase over the previous year. While some Eastern and Southern European States'--non EU members'--often have little alternative to Chinese capital, Western Europe has a different, more nuanced perception of China, hence the determination to protect sensitive technologies that could affect Europe's long-term strategic independence and/or security.
    • Brussels is also concerned about the issues of reciprocity and access to the Chinese market for European companies. Despite several years of negotiations, there is still no bilateral investment treaty, and European companies have found it increasingly difficult to do business in China. Year after year, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China has expressed its dissatisfaction about the difficulties foreign firms encounter, concerns shared by the American Chamber of Commerce.
    • Yet there has been no unified EU policy toward BRI. Several EU countries and cities have been particularly receptive to Chinese investors. Others have been more cautious, seeking guarantees from China that it will follow international standards and not pursue exclusively its geostrategic interests. Although the EU was represented by a European Commission vice president last week in Beijing, neither the President of the European Council Donald Tusk nor the Commission's Head Jean-Claude Juncker made the trip. Among member states, the prime ministers of Italy, Spain, Hungary, Greece and the Polish president were in attendance. Other countries'--including Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.K.'--were represented by their finance or economy minister. France, which has just changed governments after the election of President Emmanuel Macron, sent a former prime minister.
    • It is fair to say that the BRI represents opportunities for Europe, but it is primarily a Chinese project that will help China to expand its influence in the vast Eurasia region in future decades. It is not clear what level of control China's ''partners'' will have. For the past few years, China has demonstrated its ability to divide Europeans by creating new entities such as the 16+1 mechanism, and by encouraging EU members to join the Beijing-run Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). In 2015, the U.K. broke ranks with other EU members (and the United States) by announcing it was joining the AIIB, forcing others to follow without delay.
    • Although connectivity is both a Chinese and EU concept, it is easy to understand why certain European leaders are reluctant to give China carte blanche to invest in the continent's infrastructure. At the end of the day, Europe and China have similar aims: preserving jobs; fueling economic growth; and maintaining social stability. They may not achieve these goals in the same ways.
    • Order from Chaos
    • Check out our other foreign policy blog, Markaz, on politics in and policy towards the Middle East. Read all the Order from Chaos content >>
    • Europe's mixed views on China's One Belt, One Road initiativeSearchThe Brookings InstitutionThe Brookings InstitutionSearchMenuTwitterPlay VideoThe Brookings InstitutionFacebookTwitterYouTubePodcastBrowse NewslettersRSSThe Brookings InstitutionCloseCloseSkip to main content
    • Editor's Note:There has been no unified EU policy toward China's One Belt, One Road initiative, writes Philippe Le Corre. Several EU countries and cities have been particularly receptive to Chinese investors. Others have been more cautious, seeking guarantees from China that it will follow international standards and not exclusively pursue its geostrategic interests. The Lowy Institute originally published this piece.
    • China's One Belt, One Road summit is over, but the Chinese narrative is only just getting started. In a video released by the state-owned media outlet China Daily, a Western father tells his daughter a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) bedtime story: ''China's idea does not only belong to China. It belongs to the world.'' Yet the world'--and Europe in particular'--still has plenty of reservations about the concept.
    • AuthorIn China's mind, most roads'--and belts'--lead to the 500 million-strong European Union consumer market, the world's largest and richest (though the impact of Brexit and the departure of the U.K.'s 65 million consumers remains to be seen). During last week's BRI summit, China insisted it wanted to share ''growth, development and connectivity'' and ''collaborate more closely on concrete projects'' with the EU, but the European Commission's vice president Jyrki Katainen made some different points. In his speech at Beijing, he said that any scheme connecting Europe and Asia should adhere to a number of principles including market rules and international standards, and should complement existing networks and policies. The EU's reservations about China came to a head last year when EU lawmakers voted against China's application for ''market economy status'' under WTO law, which, if granted, would reduce possible penalties in anti-dumping cases. The sore point is steel: China's huge production capacity has flooded world markets and threatened the robust industrial base the European Commission considers essential for jobs, growth, and competitiveness.
    • But while the battle over market economy status continues, China has been steadily increasing its presence in Eastern and Central Europe. In 2012 it created the ''16+1'' mechanism, a platform where the Chinese prime minister meets'--usually once a year'--with the leaders of 16 countries including EU members such as Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and the Baltic states, as well as non-EU members including Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro. This framework has become a launch pad for the Belt and Road Initiative (at least half of the countries have signed BRI memorandums of understanding with China since 2015), and has helped China to build (or in some cases rebuild) close relations with Eastern European countries. After some complaints from Brussels, the European Commission was eventually admitted as an observer the 16+1 group.
    • Major BRI infrastructure projects are now starting to take shape in Europe'--not without controversy. One of China's top state-owned enterprises is building a high-speed railway line between Belgrade, the capital of Serbia and Budapest, the capital of Hungary. A member of the EU, Hungary is currently under investigation for possible violations of EU transparency requirements in public tenders in relation to the project.
    • Athens's Piraeus Harbor is another major piece of infrastructure that has become representative of China's offensive in Europe. Since 2016, the Greek harbor has been controlled by China Ocean Shipping Company (Cosco) which acquired 51 percent of the Port Authority and will be able to acquire a further 16 percent by 2021, following substantial investments. The idea is quite simple: Through the ''Maritime Silk Road'' and the extension of the Suez Canal, China will be able to reach the Mediterranean Sea and will use Piraeus as a platform for Chinese companies and goods. Cosco intends to turn Piraeus into one of the largest container transit ports in Europe.
    • In 2016, Chinese foreign direct investments in the EU reached 35 billion euros, a 77 percent increase over the previous year. While some Eastern and Southern European States'--non EU members'--often have little alternative to Chinese capital, Western Europe has a different, more nuanced perception of China, hence the determination to protect sensitive technologies that could affect Europe's long-term strategic independence and/or security.
    • Brussels is also concerned about the issues of reciprocity and access to the Chinese market for European companies. Despite several years of negotiations, there is still no bilateral investment treaty, and European companies have found it increasingly difficult to do business in China. Year after year, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China has expressed its dissatisfaction about the difficulties foreign firms encounter, concerns shared by the American Chamber of Commerce.
    • Yet there has been no unified EU policy toward BRI. Several EU countries and cities have been particularly receptive to Chinese investors. Others have been more cautious, seeking guarantees from China that it will follow international standards and not pursue exclusively its geostrategic interests. Although the EU was represented by a European Commission vice president last week in Beijing, neither the President of the European Council Donald Tusk nor the Commission's Head Jean-Claude Juncker made the trip. Among member states, the prime ministers of Italy, Spain, Hungary, Greece and the Polish president were in attendance. Other countries'--including Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.K.'--were represented by their finance or economy minister. France, which has just changed governments after the election of President Emmanuel Macron, sent a former prime minister.
    • It is fair to say that the BRI represents opportunities for Europe, but it is primarily a Chinese project that will help China to expand its influence in the vast Eurasia region in future decades. It is not clear what level of control China's ''partners'' will have. For the past few years, China has demonstrated its ability to divide Europeans by creating new entities such as the 16+1 mechanism, and by encouraging EU members to join the Beijing-run Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). In 2015, the U.K. broke ranks with other EU members (and the United States) by announcing it was joining the AIIB, forcing others to follow without delay.
    • Although connectivity is both a Chinese and EU concept, it is easy to understand why certain European leaders are reluctant to give China carte blanche to invest in the continent's infrastructure. At the end of the day, Europe and China have similar aims: preserving jobs; fueling economic growth; and maintaining social stability. They may not achieve these goals in the same ways.
    • Order from Chaos
    • Check out our other foreign policy blog, Markaz, on politics in and policy towards the Middle East. Read all the Order from Chaos content >>
  • Has China just Created the New Silk Road? | Teach Abroad: Teach English Abroad with Footprints Recruiting
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:05
    •  
    • It's entirely possible. Seemingly invisible in international news feeds, China has quietly started sending trains from Yiwu in the south of China to Spain '' a distance of over 13,000km. This will be the longest freight train route in the world, 40% longer than the infamous Trans-Siberian Railway.
    • Crossing numerous borders along the way '' Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, France and then into Spain. In November 2014, the first train has already completed the westbound journey carrying some 1000 tons of goods.
    • ''Made in China'' seems to be on everything these days, and Yiwu is one the major hubs where these products get distributed from '' possibly the biggest wholesale center for small-sized consumer goods in the world.
    • China's economy is not slowing down, and this rapid expansion of transportation links is just the start. What currently takes 21 days by traditional rail, is hopefully going to take just 2 days when a 'bullet train' corridor is complete. China to Europe in 2 days by train. That could truly change the way the world does business.
    • Jobs in China
    • Photo Credit
  • Called New Silk Road, China to Spain 6,200 mile long railway line opens
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:03
    •  
    • DUBBED the new Silk Road, the world's longest train journey that crosses the whole of Central Asia and Europe has been inaugurated in China.
    • The route over which will the hauled 82 freight wagons, starts in the city of Yew, 100 kilometres inland from Ningbo, a centre for small consumer products and ends in Madrid.
    • The Washington Post reports that the journey will take 21 days and cover 9,977 kilometres (6,200 miles), or 724 kilometres longer than the Trans-Siberian Railway.
    • According to Russian media, the train will pass through China's western region of Xinjiang and then continue through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany and France before reaching Spain, reported Toronto's Digital Journal.
    • The train is one of many similar long distance rail links in the pipeline. The goal is to "reduce dependence on sea and air cargo transport", according to Xinhua.
    • At the moment, the running of the rail link is expensive, but authorities say that as trade expands, its costs will fall. Currently, China's trade with Europe amounts to US$1 billion per day.
    • A test route run at the beginning of the year, which ended in Central Asia, already brought in an extra $39 million in trade for the Yiwu region.
  • Spain | SILK ROAD
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:02
    •  
    • Historical links between Spain and the Silk Roads
    • Located at the western end of European Silk Roads, Spain in the Iberian Peninsula has been the platform from which the land and sea routes met and extended to the American continent. Spain is the only country in Western Europe that can boast more than nine centuries of Eastern culture, while closing to the west the circle of silk, having started historically and geographically in China.
    • The silk industry arrived in Spain with the Arab civilization since the establishment of the Umayyad dynasty in the early eighth century, which led to the settlement in Al-Andalus craft of Syrian origin who introduced the silk manufacturing, from the raw materials to the tissue production. The silk production flourished in Al-Andalus, in connection with the expansion of the cultural, religious and economic activities of the Arab ways of living under the Calpihate of Cordoba. After its disintegration, in the eleventh century, the silk industry mainly developed in the Kingdom of Granada, where it achieved an intense splendor at the end of the Middle Ages (XII-XV).
    • The relations with the Christian kingdoms of the Western Mediterranean were channeled via sea roads through the city of Valencia, which played an important role as a redistribution center for the Granada silk, with strong ties to northern Italy. During the fifteenth century, the settlement of Italian merchants and craftsmen brought the technology that was being used in Genoa for the production of luxurious silk fabrics.
    • From 1479, the creation in the city of Valencia of the "Velluters Guild" quickly became the most important craft corporation of the city that innovated and disseminated some new textile techniques through the Iberian Peninsula, both to the Castilian cities, including Toledo said, as to the Andalusian, such as Cordoba, Sevilla and Granada. Some specific innovations and new technologies appeared in Spain. By obtaining royal privileges in 1686, the "Velluters Guild" was allowed to adopt the prestigious name of "Colegio Mayor Art Silk" as a good reflection of the expansion of the Valencian silk reaching a period of splendor. In the eighteenth century, the Kingdom of Valencia held the dual role of being the largest producer of Spanish raw material and dispose of the country's most important manufacturing center territory. In the city of Valencia, about half of the population worked directly or indirectly in the sector.
    • After 1492 and the Christian Reconquista, an intense restructuration of manufacturing activity happened when the moral was being replaced by mulberry, providing and increasing productivity. On one hand, this culture spread faster in the Kingdoms of Valencia and Murcia, which became the most important producing areas for the peninsula raw material. On the other hand, the Catholic Kings favored the development of the silk industry in their capital, Toledo that became the largest manufacturing center of Spain at the time of the Habsburgs (XVI-XVII). In addition to meet the demands of the Spanish elite, Toledo silk fabrics, with some of Valencia and Andalusia, they are also marketed in America in the fleets and galleons departed from Seville. The activity shifted to the Mediterranean coast, where among the most important production centers of raw material of the Peninsula, the largest was the Kingdom of Valencia, which took over from Toledo to become the most relevant Spanish Mercer center until late seventeenth century.
    • In addition to the mainland market, its manufacturing is also channeled to the growing American market due to the protectionist policy adopted by the Spanish monarchy. But in the early nineteenth century, the emancipation of the American colonies caused a serious crisis intensified by the competition from the French silk genres in the mainland market, and the spreading of the ''Pebrina'' epidemic from 1854.
    • The Itinerary of historic Overland and Maritime Silk Routes
    • At the time of the Arab conquest, the main roads coming from Syria arrived primarily through North Africa. From the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries, the commercial centers of northern Italy, mainly Venice and Genoa, stimulated trade by sea and during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, silk trade and know-how were basically directed to Toledo, which was the main production center Spanish of the time.
    • In the sixteenth century, Valencia has been consolidated as a commercial and financial pole with shipping lines with major industrial centers, Genoa, Venetia, Tuscany and Portugal. The Port of Valencia acted as an intermediate scale which brought a major boost to the marketing of ready-made silk in Valencia. Subsequently silk fabrics were sent for the American market through the fleets and galleons departed from Sevilla and Cadiz.
    • In the eighteenth century, the leading producers of silk were Valencia and Madrid which tissues were marketed in the major Spanish cities. Valencia remitted high quality silk tissues by land to Cadiz, where they were acquired and shipped to America. In addition to the peninsular and colonial markets, minor genres of silk were produced in Catalonia and also exported to the European market, which, together with the machining process experienced by the textile sector in the nineteenth century, allowed the further survival of silk manufacturing.
    • They are noteworthy monuments and landmarks related to the Silk Roads heritage and to the silk industry in the cities of Valencia, Granada, Toledo, Seville, Cadiz, Cordoba, Murcia, Zaragoza, La Palma (Canary Islands), Mallorca, Terassa-Barcelona, '‹'‹all historically connected to the silk activity centers in Spain.
    • Barcelona
    • (C) The National Commission of Spain for UNESCO
    • The silk trade activity had undergone a major expansion in medieval Catalonia, but as with other activities, only Barcelona Guilds kept alive the tradition. The Col·legi de l'Art Major de la Seda was established as such, in the month of July 1834, by agreement of the Guild of Velers old (founded on November 24, 1533), and the Guild of Velluters (founded the November 22, 1547).
    • Granada
    • (C) The National Commission of Spain for UNESCO
    • The Alcaicer­a of Granada is a typical neighborhood from the Arab heritage in Spain (VII-XV) located in the vicinity of the cathedral. Made up of narrow streets around which the houses are lined and the "souk" was located, it has been the market of manufactured and sold silk. In the Arab era, Granada was the center of the last Moorish kingdom (XIV-XV), historically dedicated to marketing and custody of rich merchandise, particularly silk.
    • After the conquest of Granada by the Catholic Kings, the silk activity continued and even increased with the control of the Republic of Genoa. In 1526, some ordinances used the Granada silk as a model to establish and implement this industry in the Spanish America.
    • The city still has important documentary collections at the Archive of the Alhambra and the Archives of the House of Granada.
    • Cordoba
    • (C) The National Commission of Spain for UNESCO
    • With the arrival of the Arabs in the peninsula and its settlement in Al-Andalus in s.VIII under the rule of Abd al-Rahman I (756-788), first Umayyad emir surrounded by Syrian artists and craftsmen who established his court in Cordoba, the Art of Silk started to flourish in the manufacture of silk called "Tiraz" or Real Workshop.
    • Toledo
    • (C) The National Commission of Spain for UNESCO
    • The Toledo silk textile industry, the most important of all the southern sub-plateau of Castile in the fourth quarter of the XV until the mid-seventeenth century, wasof greater significance and scope within Spain. That industry, together with other minor, gave the city the character of immense hive beating to the rhythm of the thousands of looms scattered throughout itsnarrow streets.
    • MURCIA
    • In the late fifteenth century, the development of trade in the Mediterranean promoted the production of a wide range of raw materials, including silk in Murcia. The activity related to silk in Murcia concluded practically by 1940-1950. It was an eminently rich territory, producer of raw materials for export mainly to Toledo, Cordoba, Italy, Valencia and Lyon.
    • There is a Permanent Exhibition of Silk in a shack - typical construction of the murciana -orchard located at the headquarters of the Pe±a Silk orchard in the village of La Alberca (Murcia). The exhibition offers to visitors the opportunity to delve into the ancient ways of life of the pool and in the traditions and customs of the Huerta del Segura.
    • The jewels of this exhibition are tools, equipment and teaching materials related to the silkworm breeding and production of this product, which achieved great splendor in the Huerta de Murcia in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries.
  • Crans Montana Forum
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    • The Crans Montana African Women's Forum at the European Parliament on EURONEWS
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    • October 04, 2017 THE THREE SEAS INITIATIVE : an original and ambitious cooperation process, while the European Union is facing many challenges
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    • July 12, 2017 Join the CRANS MONTANA BUSINESS COUNCIL an exclusive community of international Business Leaders
    • June 29, 2017 OBERTHUR FIDUCIAIRE, Partner of the 28th Annual Session of the Crans Montana Forum in Barcelona
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    • June 12, 2017 Moroccan Agency for Energy Efficiency, Partner of the 28th Annual Session of the Crans Montana Forum
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    • June 01, 2017 The OAPEC, partner of the Special Program on ENERGY PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS, in Barcelona
    • May 25, 2017 Ministerial Conference on the SILK ROAD and its huge potential for the MEDITERRANEAN, AFRICA & the MIDDLE EAST, on the occasion of the forthcoming Forum in Barcelona
    • May 24, 2017 PORT MANAGEMENT AND ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION, Next Crans Montana Club of Ports Special Meeting in Barcelona, July 2017
    • May 10, 2017 International Conference on PEACE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN, THE ROLE OF YOUTH & THE IMPROVEMENT OF SPORT GOVERNANCE
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    • May 08, 2017 Meeting of the NEW LEADERS FOR TOMORROW in Barcelona
    • May 08, 2017

• White Papers
  • CHINA'S GLOBAL LAW ENFORCEMENT DRIVE [PDF]
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    • | 1Main findings and conclusions: International law enforcement cooperation (LEC) has become an important tool of Chinese foreign and security policy. China's active role is driven by a sweeping anti-corruption campaign, the need to protect citizens and assets abroad, and the quest for recognition as a ''respon-sible power''. Beijing concludes extradition treaties with liberal demo­cracies to eradicate ''safe havens'' for Chinese fugitives. China aims for extradition and mutual legal assistance treaties with countries that require procedural safeguards. Where formal efforts fail, Beijing is willing to use cov-ert police operations to pressure citizens into returning. China shares intelligence with and trains and funds border guards of partner countries to address the threat of transnational terrorism. Beijing emphasizes the protection of citizens and investments along the flagship 'Belt and Road Initiative'. The Chinese government tries to allay concerns in the West and build trust. Confidence building measures include joint declarations, for instance on cybercrime, dia-logue mechanisms and on-the-ground police cooperation. Cooperation with China is a necessity but could chal­lenge international legal standards. China joins institu-tions and complies with established practices but also tries to set the LEC agenda to challenge norms and definitions, e.g. on corruption and terrorism. When expedient, Beijing ig-nores international standards, challenging key principles of international law. European governments have reacted to Chinese LEC offers in an uncoordinated way that exposes them to high risks and yields few gains. EU member states need to improve LEC with China in a way that respects legal prin-ciples and fundamental rights. Awareness of China's dif-ferentiated strategy, a joint EU approach and coordination with like-minded third countries can mitigate risks to EU members' strategic interests.CHINA'S GLOBAL LAW ENFORCEMENT DRIVE The need for a European response Thomas Eder, Bertram Lang, Moritz Rudolf 18 January 2017MERICS CHINAMONITOR
    • | 2Chinese law enforcement goes globalEuropean states cooperate with China on extradition, joint police action and ghting cybercrime Extradition treatyExtradition treaty under considerationNegotiations ongoing or treaty signed but not ratiedMutual legal assistance treatyCollection of evidence and service of documents(C) MERICSSource: Ministry of Foreign Afairs of the People's Republic of China, MERICS research.PolandEstoniaLatviaPortugalCyprusBelgiumGermanyUnitedKingdomLithuaniaRomaniaMaltaEU member statesBulgariaItaly2015Hungary2015Greece20152015Spain2015France2016Actual extraditions to China (rst time)Police cooperationStationing of Chinese patrol police (aborted in France) or high-level cooperationCybercrime: concluded or under negotiationNon-binding agreement on cybercrime (negotiations with Germany ongoing)Law enforcement cooperation between China and EU member statesMERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 31. China's new focus on interna-tional law enforcement Over the last three years, Beijing has successfully roped more and more governments into efforts to internationalize its law enforcement drive. This has entailed everything from bilater-al treaties on judicial cooperation, concrete extraditions and on-the-ground police cooperation to political agreements on cyber crime and joint border patrols. In Europe, France has been a forerunner for law enforce-ment cooperation (LEC) with China, responding in particular to Chinese extradition requests. For example, when Paris decided to extradite Chen Wenhua in September 2016, Chinese state- controlled media struck a celebratory tone. The mid-level official from Zhejiang province was sought back home for embezzling public funds totaling EUR 2.7 million. In China that is small fry, yet Chen's case was special: His arrest and extradition marked the first application of a Sino-French extradition treaty, which France had ratified in April 2015. Although five other EU member states have also started to extradite so-called ''economic fugitives'' to China at Beijing's request since early 2015, there has been almost no European debate on this development and most other aspects of Europe-an LEC with China. Whereas in Canada, New Zealand and Aus-tralia pending extradition treaties with China are the subject of heated public debates due to concerns about the death penalty, torture, and the lack of access to a fair trial in China, Europe's public has remained largely in different to Beijing's growing role in global LEC. European governments have engaged with China individually without making use of the leverage that could come with a coordinated European approach. 2. Domestic campaigns, external threats and global expectations as a driving force for ChinaThe globalization of China's law enforcement is motivated by three main factors: the necessity to extend anti-corruption and counter-terrorism campaigns abroad to make them suc-cessful at home, the growing exposure of Chinese citizens and investments to international crime and terrorism, and the Chi-nese government's push for global governance participation and recognition as a 'responsible great power'. 2.1 GLOBALIZING DOMESTIC ENFORCEMENT CAMPAIGNS Since Xi Jinping assumed power, China has massively stepped up efforts to combat corruption and terrorism at home. But these efforts face difficulties because many suspects have fled overseas and China lacks sufficient international enforce-ment capabilities. Beijing therefore systematically tries to ex-pand domestic enforcement campaigns beyond its borders to eliminate ''safe havens'' for individuals sought by the Chinese authorities. The prime example is the campaign to root out corruption and enforce party discipline. Since the 18th Party Congress, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) has spear-headed the most resolute anti-corruption drive in decades, with purportedly over one million people sanctioned within China since 2013. As part of the campaign, Beijing launched the external operations ''Fox Hunt'' and ''Skynet'' in 2014 and 2015 to track down ''economic fugitives'', a euphemism for Chinese officials living abroad who are accused of corruption back home. The logic of internationalizing domestic law enforcement also applies to the counter-terrorism campaign: After the suicide attack on Tiananmen Square (2013) and reports about Uighur militants joining the terrorist group IS (2015), China first reinforced domestic security measures and then redou-bled efforts to repatriate (mainly) Uighur suspects from South-east and Central Asia.1 China's new Counter-Terrorism Law, in force since 2016, allows for the first time for the conduct of counter-terrorism operations abroad.2China has also internationalized its crackdown on civil liberties. Within China, political activists and human rights law-yers were arrested in high numbers in July 2015. Then Beijing expanded the campaign by putting pressure on dissidents abroad to come back and hand themselves in or at least remain silent on political issues. The exiled journalist Chang Ping, who lives in Germany, was among those who exposed such tactics in March 2016 when he talked openly about the harassment of his family members back home. Moreover, renditions and forced repatriations have also gone up in recent years, espe-cially from Southeast Asia.3 At the same time, the number of Chinese asylum seekers has risen considerably.4 2.2 PROTECTING CITIZENS AND ASSETS ABROADAs China becomes a global economic power, the number of Chinese entrepreneurs, workers and tourists abroad is rising sharply. Many end up in unstable regions where they (and Chinese commercial assets) are exposed to civil unrest, terrorism, and anti-Chinese sentiment, for instance over environmental and labor issues related to Chinese investment projects. This has led to domestic calls for better protection of Chinese citizens and assets abroad, and Beijing seems respon-sive to such demands. The exposure of Chinese nationals and assets is espe-cially acute in Eurasia and Pakistan where China promotes transnational connectivity through its ''Belt and Road Initia-tive'' along the old Silk Road. Recent attacks on the Chinese embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, and several Chinese-led in-frastructure projects in Pakistan highlight these security risks. MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 4But Chinese citizens were also killed in terror attacks in Bam-ako, Mali, and at Brussels Airport.Moreover, with Uighur extremists allegedly receiving training, fighting experience and instructions abroad,5 China might have to deal with militant returnees '' similar to the sit-uation in several European countries, the U.S. and Australia, where returning extremists from the Syrian Civil War pose a threat. Finally, Chinese citizens are exposed to non-political forms of crime abroad. In France, for example, Chinese tour-ists were repeatedly victims of high-profile robberies. These caused public outrage at home and increased pressure on the Chinese government to better protect its citizens abroad. 2.3 RESPONDING TO GROWING INTERNATIONAL EXPECTATIONS Under President Xi, China has adopted a more active foreign policy posture. Beijing wants to participate more actively in global governance, expand its influence and be recognized as a ''responsible great power''. This approach explicitly includes co-operation with Western countries, including EU member states, on issues that matter to them, such as counter- terrorism and the fight against cybercrime. Beijing understands that it has to accommodate calls for cooperation on matters outside its own priority list. EU member states and EU institutions have identified four key areas for LEC with China: cyber, drug trafficking, the composite issue of illegal migration, people smuggling and human trafficking, and counterterrorism.6 Not surprisingly, Western demands for greater Chinese cooperation are most pronounced on criminal activities that appear to originate from Chinese soil: on cybercrime, for example, China-based perpetrators are said to account for about a third of all cy-ber-attacks worldwide.7 This issue is crucial to Western busi-nesses and institutions which have suffered record numbers of attacks over the past three years. On drug trafficking, American and European governments seized on a new UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report, that singled out China as the world's new synthetic drug wholesaler, to urge Beijing to step up counter-trafficking efforts.8The extent of China's willingness to cooperate on issues of Western interest reflects domestic ''red lines'': Beijing has lately been more responsive on commercially motivated cyber espionage and to requests to close down synthetic drug production networks. Joint on-the-ground police operations against human trafficking in Europe also indicate potential for further cooperation. But prospects are less bright on issues such as terrorism and money laundering. Progress on fight-ing terrorist financing is possible, but finding common ground on counter-radicalization measures remains difficult because China refuses to be drawn into debates about its judicial system and its policies on ethnic and religious minorities. On money laundering and fiscal transparency, China's willing-ness to cooperate remains hampered by the fact that Chinese elites' extensively use tax havens themselves for storing their families' wealth.3. China is willing to use whatever tool is necessaryChina is developing a toolbox that allows it to effectively globalize its law enforcement agenda. In a multi-pronged strategy of bi- and multilateral LEC, Beijing takes legal as well as diplomatic steps, and expands inter-agency and on-the-ground cooperation. Three parts of the Chinese toolkit deserve particular attention, as they demonstrate both the complexity and current focus of Beijing's approach. 3.1 BUILDING A GLOBAL EXTRADITION NETWORKRepatriating crime suspects is currently the priority of China's LEC efforts. In July 2014, the Ministry of Public Security launched the high profile ''Operation Foxhunt'' to track down and repatriate ''economic fugitives'' and their assets abroad.9 This police-led campaign was broadened with the launch of ''Operation Skynet'' in 2015 that brought in the Supreme People's Procuratorate and the People's Bank of China to collectively push for a comprehensive global law enforcement network including new extradition treaties. Historically, China has relied on case-by-case diplomatic negotiations, especially with like-minded countries, to achieve extraditions. These negotiations have been easily skewed by power asymmetries, making extraditions a matter of political bargaining. One recent example of extraditions without formal treaty procedures was Afghanistan's hand-over of several suspected Uighur militants in 2015.10During the current hunt for ''economic fugitives'', how-ever, the Chinese government has realized that it needs to cooperate more closely with those Western democracies many wealthy Chinese suspects have fled to. These countries are traditionally wary of China's judicial system and require trea-ty guarantees that extradited suspects will not be subject to the death penalty or torture. Consequently, Beijing has sought to expand its network of formal extradition treaties from the paltry 34 it had in 2015 and to shift the focus to striking deals with liberal democracies. The recent extradition treaty ratifications with France and Italy, the signing of a treaty with Australia, which is to be tabled for ratification in 2017, and the beginning of negotiations with Canada and New Zealand were milestones for Beijing. China's party-state media covered these diplomatic efforts extensively, oscillating between praising progress in securing Western cooperation11 and criticizing Western countries' perceived unwillingness to cooperate due to what the media call ''human rights excuses'' and ''double standards''12. MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 5To support formal extradition efforts, China also pushes for judicial cooperation through 'mutual legal assistance treaties' (MLATs).13 These treaties allow prosecutors and judges to re-quest the collection of evidence and to familiarize themselves with the other country's legal system. They help build trust, facilitate work on the mounting number of cases with an in-ternational dimension and often precede extradition treaties . China also tries to make better use of existing multi-lateral institutions to support its drive to find, arrest and extra-dite suspects that have fled the country. In one month alone, in April 2015, China added its ''100 most wanted'' corruption suspects to Interpol's Red Notices list, which serves to inform other states about arrest warrants and to request their assis-tance. This is a massive increase compared to only 500 Red Notices issued for Chinese citizens in the 30 years before. 3.2 EXPANDING BORDER AND INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION China has responded to the threat of transnational terrorism by applying a multi-level approach. At home, it has passed new anti-terror and national security laws in 2015 that increase funding for special counter-terrorism forces and border control agencies and create a legal basis for operations abroad. China's external cooperation has focused on its neigh-borhood but is gradually expanding. Beijing has recently signed joint border cooperation agreements, including the provision of equipment, training and funding, with Pakistan, Vietnam and Kyrgyzstan. It has also conducted joint border patrols with these countries. Similar to its long-standing intelligence cooperation on counter-terrorism with Pakistan, China has also enhanced cooperation with strategically significant countries like Turkey, Iran or Saudi-Arabia, all states where Chinese citi-zens could either be targeted or receive ''jihadist'' training. To protect Chinese citizens and financial interests abroad, the PRC has also started to enlist other states' help. As part of the Sino-Pakistani cooperation agreement Pakistan provides police and military personnel to protect Chinese laborers working on projects that are part of the Sino-Pakistan Eco-nomic Corridor. China also increases its own police presence abroad. Police liaison officers have been deployed to Chinese embassies and consulates in increasing numbers to improve access to local authorities and monitor the security needs of Chinese citizens. In Rome and Milan Chinese officers even pa-trolled popular tourist spots alongside their Italian colleagues in 2016. A similar program in France had been negotiated in 2014 but was cancelled last minute by the French side.143.3 CYBER AGREEMENTS AND HIGH-LEVEL POLICE COOPERATION To demonstrate good will in areas that are primarily of interest to partners in Europe and North America, such as cybercrime and human and drug trafficking, China uses non-binding bilat-eral agreements, dialogue mechanisms, and on-the-ground police cooperation. Responding to Western initiatives, Beijing reached political agreements on cybercrime with the U.S. and the UK in 2015.15 Another such deal with Germany is in the works. These agreements try to address (mostly state-spon-sored) commercial cyber espionage, (mostly private) phish-ing and other cyber-attacks, as well as terrorist financing. An EU-China Legal Affairs Dialogue and a U.S.-China High- Level Dialogue on Cybercrime and Related Issues were set up, the U.S.-China Joint Liaison Group on LEC shifted its focus to cyber issues and drug trafficking. In 2016, the U.S. and China held their third Counterterrorism Dialogue. China also engages in concrete police cooperation in ar-eas such as human and drug trafficking. For example, in April 2016, the People's Armed Police prominently cooperated with Spanish police forces to break up a human trafficking ring, arresting 29 suspects in Spain.16 On drug trafficking, China's Narcotics Control Bureau recently agreed to share evidence with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency, in return for the latter's aid in training Chinese officers on financial aspects of the drug trade. 4. China's approach to interna-tional law enforcement: comply, control, challenge, circumventThe PRC's new and active role has a significant impact on norms and practices of international LEC. While there is no clear-cut, all-encompassing ''Chinese approach'', China's flexi-ble behavior can be broken down into four key categories. 4.1 COMPLY: CHINA IS EAGER TO JOIN ESTABLISHED FRAMEWORKSBeijing increasingly complies with demands for cooperation on transnational organized crime. Doing so in areas low on the domestic priority list is a way to gain influence and recognition in the West, overcome reluctance to cooperate on extradition requests, and incentivize the protection of Chinese citizens and assets abroad. Beijing has intensified its diplomatic efforts to become an indispensable pillar of international law enforcement. Chi-na already ratified UN conventions on transnational organized crime (UNCTOC), corruption (UNCAC) and terrorist financing in the 2000s and has been more compliant with reporting mechanisms under these treaties than many other states.17 But since 2014 Beijing has also supported UN Security Council Resolutions on cutting off support for foreign terrorist fight-ers (Resolution 2178) and authorizing the interception of vessels smuggling migrants (Resolution 2240).18 In addition, China concluded bilateral extradition and judicial cooperation treaties that conform with UN model treaties and entered many bi- and multilateral dialogue mechanisms.19MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 64.2 CONTROL: CHINA USES ITS INFLUENCE TO SET THE AGENDA AND SHAPE NEW FIELDS China strengthens its position in multilateral institutions to gain influence and to direct the focus of global law enforcement.20 Faced with a set of mostly Western-created inter national LEC mechanisms, China now tries to use and adjust them to its own advantage. Firstly, Beijing's drive to establish extradition as the tool of choice in international LEC leads to a focus on punitive rather than preventive measures to combat crime. The strong emphasis on prosecution neglects the political and socio-economic root causes of corruption, terrorism and organized crime and collides with efforts by UN bodies21 and transnational organizations22 to promote preventive approaches aimed at strengthening institutions, increas-ing transparency and empowering local communities. Under China's growing influence the focus is also shifting to intergov-ernmental cooperation on multilateral conventions (e.g. UNC-TOC, UNCAC) and is moving away from the multi- stakeholder approach that international non-governmental organizations have promoted over the last two decades.23 Secondly, China selectively shapes the agenda of multi-lateral bodies like the G20, APEC or Interpol to promote ex-tradition and asset recovery. APEC's Beijing Declaration on Fighting Corruption from November 2014 closely follows Chinese policy priorities,24 as does the declaration on anti- corruption cooperation issued by the G2025 at the September 2016 summit in Hangzhou. China also strives to gain greater influence within multilateral institutions, for instance at Inter-pol. This is evident in the appointment of the Vice Minister of Public Security, Meng Hongwei, as Interpol's new president in November 2016, the recent decision to significantly increase the number of Chinese officers seconded to Interpol head-quarters, and China's role as host of the organization's general assembly in 2017.26Thirdly, China tries to shape the new policy area of tack-ling cybercrime. Beijing's controversial role in cyber espionage and its crucial position in fighting cybercrime lead Western countries to seek political agreements on cyber issues. Dur-ing that process, however, they inadvertently allow China to promote its authoritarian model of ''cyber-sovereignty''. Herein, the cyberspace is just as much a part of a nation's sov-ereign domain as its physical territory. Non-government actors have no role in the Chinese concept, censorship is accepted, and 'cybercrime' comprises not just criminal activities but also a wide array of political offenses.274.3 CHALLENGE: CHINA SHIFTS DEFINITIONS AT THE HEART OF LECChina's efforts to reshape the international fight against crime intensify an ongoing debate within international institutions over the definition and interpretation of norms and concepts. Beijing, for example, uses extremely broad definitions of ''cor-ruption'' and ''terrorism'' '' highly contested terms anyway '' and tries to garner international support for its approach. The CCP's campaign against ''corruption'' targets not only graft and embezzlement, but also ''immoral behavior'' or infringements of party discipline '' transgressions that would not be punished as crimes in most other countries. ''Terrorism'', in turn, has been defined by the 2015 Counter-Terrorism law as referring to ''propositions and actions that create social panic, endanger public safety, violate person and property, or coerce national organs or international organizations ['...]'' (Art. 3). This definition is vague and can be understood to include non-violent ''separatist'' activities deemed to endanger ''public safety''. China's approach obfuscates how much of the thrust to repatriate fugitives is due to a broader crackdown on politi-cal dissent and how much is linked to concrete terrorist threats. Both factors often seem to go hand in hand, especially when Uighur suspects are concerned. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) allowed China to take a first step towards internationalizing its defi-nition of terrorism in 2001. Back then SCO members adopted the Shanghai Convention that fully endorsed China's ''Three Evils'' doctrine, i.e. the conflation of terrorism, separatism and extremism.28 Today's efforts go further: Since November 2014, the SCO's 'Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure' (RATS) has stepped up cooperation with and attempts to influence the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee and Interpol. An Interpol-RATS Memorandum of Understanding, for example, facilitates stays of RATS liaison officers with Interpol.294.4 CIRCUMVENT: CHINA IGNORES NORMS IF NECESSARY On its domestic priority issue, extradition, Beijing is prepared to forego formal extradition proceedings, when it is either ex-pedient or such proceedings are not an option. With Thailand's apparent consent, for instance, Chinese special ops forcibly returned journalist Li Xin, who went missing in Thailand in January 2016 and suddenly reappeared in Chinese police cus-tody in early February. Even without host countries' consent, China has used covert Ministry of Public Security operations abroad, for example in Canada, to pressure Chinese citizens into returning to China.30 The level of coercion and the types of threats used in these covert operations, euphemistically called ''persuasions'' by the Chinese side remain nebulous, nonethe-less these activities have drawn harsh criticism from the U.S. and Canada, including threats to suspend further cooperation with Chinese authorities. Whether that backlash will prompt Beijing to change its strategy will be an important indicator of China's willingness to respect international norms when a central domestic policy goal is at stake. Yet the most far reaching measures are extradition treaties that leave out and thereby undermine established legal norms. This most prominently concerns the non-refoule-ment principle, a key element of international refugee law that prohibits extradition to a state where the individual in question might face the death penalty or torture. However, when counterparts are willing, China negotiates treaties that MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 7fail to contain legally binding safeguards concerning non- refoulement, as is envisaged, for example, in the UN Model Treaty on Extradition. Instead, Beijing gives merely diplomatic assurances that those extradited will get a fair trial, will not be tortured or suffer capital punishment. Such diplomatic assur-ances have been accepted when extraditing asylum-seekers (e.g. from Kazakhstan in 2011) and refugees (e.g. from Thai-land in 2015).31 This is highly problematic given China's judicial system where human rights abuses remain commonplace.5. A more unified Europe could work with China on common threats without giving up standardsOver the last three years, Europe has become the focus of China's LEC drive, and European governments have greatly ex-panded cooperation (see Figure 1, page 8). This trend is likely to continue and could accelerate in the future. Yet there appears to be no cohesive European approach to working with China on LEC. This leads to concerns over a number of LEC issues. 5.1 EUROPEAN STATES HAVE EMBARKED ON A 'HIGH RISK, LOW YIELD' PATHFrance is the first EU member state so far that has executed two extraditions to China within a short period of time. The second one went ahead before it was possible to assess China's sustained compliance with treaty guarantees given to the first extradited suspect. Similarly, negotiations between China and Germany on a non-binding agreement on cyber-crime and espionage continue although there are conflicting accounts on whether Beijing has actually complied with its obligations under existing similar deals with the UK and the United States. European governments have a clear interest in LEC with China. Europe stands to gain from police cooperation against people smuggling and human trafficking rings, synthetic drug producers, cyber criminals, and global money laundering. Economic interests also play a part: Italy's decision to allow China to station patrol officers in popular tourist sports like Mi-lan and Rome was likely driven by desires to remain attractive to Chinese tourists concerned about their safety in Europe. But the bilateral approaches taken by European govern-ments put crucial legal principles at risk without yielding much in return. The main danger of watering down core elements of the European human rights regime has not been sufficiently addressed. The prohibition of the death penalty, torture or in-human or degrading punishment, and the extradition to a state where there is a serious risk thereof are enshrined in the Char-ter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union (CFREU). In LEC with China, that Charter might be undermined as well as the right to a fair trial and other principles concerning criminal and criminal procedure law. In addition, through cyber agree-ments with liberal democracies, Beijing gains a wider platform to promote its vision of cyber sovereignty and its idea of state-driven cyber governance, which fundamentally clashes with European views on cyber governance mechanisms. It is unclear, however, what Europeans get in return. EU mem-ber states are themselves at least partly responsible for this lack of clarity. They neither provide enough resources for monitoring Chinese behavior nor exchange information on a systematic basis. The Chinese judicial system not only violates most of the above-listed legal principles, but the ongoing crackdown on dissidents and minorities, including forced public confessions, make gradual improvement in the near future rather unlikely. Therefore, extradition treaties that contain clauses prohib-iting the death penalty and inhumane treatment are hardly sufficient to protect European legal principles. Following up on individual cases is also extremely difficult. Aside from general concerns, there is a specific European di-mension to extraditions to China: other EU nationals are not protected from extradition to China under the existing bilat-eral treaties. For example, while a French citizen cannot be extradited under the Sino-French extradition treaty, a German citizen arrested in France would not enjoy the same protec-tion. The absence of safeguard clauses in many mutual legal assistance treaties creates an additional risk that European authorities might inadvertently assist in judicial cases involv-ing torture or the death penalty. Finally, counterterrorism cooperation with China could compromise EU member states' commitment to religious freedom and non-discrimination of minorities because of China's very broad definition of religious extremism and its conflation with terrorism.All these risks are not outweighed by commensurate benefits. Chinese support for European police forces and Europol in the fight against transnational organized crime is still limited. It remains unclear whether China will adhere to the cyber agreement with the UK and what Beijing can actually do to help fight terrorism that affects Europe. More-over, it is not clear whether closer cooperation with China will end secretive activities abroad. For instance, Beijing did not refrain from an opaque repatriation (apparently by exerting pressure) from the UK in 2016 without formal extradition procedures, despite London's engagement strategy including a new MLAT and the afore-mentioned cyber agreement.32 5.2 COORDINATION AMONG LIBERAL DEMOCRACIES CAN HELP DELIVER BETTER RESULTSChina's pivotal role for global law enforcement makes cooper-ation inevitable and potentially mutually beneficial. However, only awareness of China's differentiated strategy, a joint ap-proach by leading European states, and coordination with like-minded third countries can mitigate risks to EU members' strategic interests. European countries should not forego the possibility of cooperating with China to make the world safer, MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 8but they have to defend core European principles in the process. European governments should welcome and facilitate Bei-jing's compliance with and support for UN Security Council resolutions and the ratification of multilateral LEC treaties. Europe should also push for further cooperation and confi-dence-building measures with Europol and European national police forces. Leading European states need to be aware of Chi-na's growing agenda-setting power. They should uphold multi- stakeholder approaches, which involve civil society actors, in international treaty implementation processes. It is also necessary to greatly increase transparency and avoid a narrow focus of international anti-corruption efforts on prose-cution instead of preventive institution-building. Governments in Berlin, Paris and London share a strate-gic interest in retaining influence to shape international law enforcement. Common threat perceptions with China regard-ing transnational terrorism, and Beijing's growing need to protect citizens and assets worldwide, provide a window of opportunity for closer cooperation. Authorities should coop- erate in areas such as the fight against terrorist financing and begin to share certain intelligence, if the usage of such infor-mation for monitoring dissidents and minority activists can be safely excluded. Crucially, however, European states have to resist Chinese attempts to redefine ''terrorism'' within interna-tional institutional frameworks. On cyber issues, European coordination and coop-eration with other like-minded countries, like the U.S. or Australia, can tilt the balance of power in negotiations and allow the European side to shape cyber agreements Lithuania (Jun 03)EU member states unilaterally cooperate with China on law enforcementTimeline of Chinese-Euopean law enforcement cooperationExtraditiontreaties(in force since) Mutual legal assistance treaties(in force since)Sources: MERICS research, Ministry of Foreign Afairs of the People'\s Republic of China, Chinese and English-language news(C) MERICS1980s - 2005:Focus on Central and Eastern Europe 2006 - 2014:Progress in Southwest Europe 2015 - 2016:Intensied cooperation''Operation Foxhunt'' begins (Jul 2014) China issues 100 Interpol "Red Notices" (Apr 2015)Spain (Sep 15)Hungary (Nov 15)Italy (Feb 2015)France ( Jun 14, joint patrols can-celled last-minute)France (Sep 16)UK (Jan 16)France (Nov 16)Greece (Apr 15)Cyprus (Apr 15)Bulgaria (Apr 15) France (Jul 15)Italy (Dec 15)Bulgaria (Jul 97)Romania (Jan 99)Poland (Feb 88)Romania (Jan 93)Lithuania (Jan 02)Latvia (Sep 05)Portugal (May 09)Estonia (Mar 11)Malta (Jan 12)Italy (Aug 15)UK (Jan 16)Belgium (Apr 16)Spain (Apr 07)France (Sep 07)Cyprus (Jan 96)Bulgaria (May 96)Greece (Jun 96)Spain & Europol (Apr 16)Italy (May 16)Law-enforcementactivitiesPolice cooperationExtraditions to ChinaInformal repatriationsSpain (Apr 07)Portugal (Jul 09)Figure 1MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 9 1 | Tanner, Murray Scot and James Bellacqua (2016). ''China's Response to Terrorism''. June. https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/IRM-2016-U-013542-Final.pdf. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 2 | National People's Congress (2016). ''中华人民共å'Œå›½åææ–ä¸>>义æ"•'' (Counter-Terrorism Law of the People's Republic of China). January 25. http://npc.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0125/c14576-28083014.html. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 3 | The forced repatriations of journalist Li Xin and Hong Kong book-seller Gui Minhai from Thailand in January 2016 illustrate this even more direct threat to dissidents abroad, see: Time (2016), ''China's Search for Dissidents Has Now Expanded to Foreign Countries.'' January 18. http://www.chinaaid.org/2016/01/time-chinas-search-for-dissidents-has.html. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 4 | According to UNHCR figures, the number of asylum-seekers from China has increased from 7,746 in 2010 to an astounding 57,680 in 2015, see: Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2015). ''UNHCR Population Statistics Database - Asylum Seekers''.2015. http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/asylum_seekers. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 5 | Official accounts on terrorism in China should be regarded with caution, but there have been several videos produced by Chine-se-speaking members of IS, specifically targeting a Chinese audience and threatening the PRC. See also: http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/isis-releases-chinese-language-propaganda-video/ 6 | Council of the European Union (2016). ''Council Conclusions EU Stra-tegy on China 2016.'' July 18. http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11252-2016-INIT/en/pdf. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 7 | British Banking Association (2015). ''Cybercrime Top 10 coun-tries where attacks originate.'' February. https://www.bba.org.uk/wp- content/uploads/2015/02/red24+Cybercrime+Top+10+coun-tries+where+attacks+originate+-++2015.pdf. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 8 | United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) (2016). ''World Drug Report 2016.'' May. https://www.unodc.org/doc/wdr2016/WORLD_DRUG_REPORT_2016_web.pdf. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 9 | Ministry of Public Security of the People's Republic of China (2014). 'žå…¬å®‰éƒ¨éƒ¨ç½²å¼å±•'' 猎狐2014''缉捕å'¨éƒåƒå¤–ç>>æµŽçŠ¯ç½ªåŒç–‘人ä¸'é¹èŒåŠ¨ '' (Special Operations to arrest suspects of economic crimes that have fled abroad since the launch of ''Operation Foxhunt 2014'' by the Ministry of Public Security). July 22. http://www.mps.gov.cn/n2254314/n2254487/c4917126/content.html. Accessed: January 9, 2017.10 | Reuters (2015). ''Afghans arrested Chinese Uighurs to aid Taliban talks bid: officials''. February 20. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-china-idUSKBN0LO18020150220?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=%2AAf-Pak%20Daily%20Brief&utm_campaign=2014_The_South_Asia_Daily%202.23. Accessed: January 9, 2017. with China according to its open, multi-stakeholder models. Such an approach could also create incentives for Beijing to comply with European expectations regarding commercial espionage. European governments and suitable international part-ners like Canada need to achieve a common level of awareness and act in concert to defend international norms that risk be-ing undermined by Beijing's new policies. European countries should not allow China to use power asymmetries; they should attach costs to Chinese covert ''persuasion'' activities and make it clear that clauses on the death penalty and torture in the Franco-Sino extradition treaty are not sufficient to allay concerns over China's judicial system. China's strong domestic interests in combatting crime and corruption offer a united EU leverage in negotiations for a potential EU-China extradition treaty. Overall, a concerted European approach should be pointedly cautious and patient and clearly identify troubling issues in the Chinese judicial system. Law enforcement cooperation is crucial to global security. China is in the course of shaping this field in significant and long-lasting ways. Leading European states need to be aware of this development, remain open and transparent about their own steps in this area and coordinate their responses if they want to harness the potential of Chinese contributions while retaining influence and protecting the achievements of the past.11 | The opening of extradition treaty negotiations with Canada in September 2016, first extraditions from Italy, France or Hungary as well as repeated case-by-case extraditions from the US were all wi-dely celebrated in Chinese party-state media '' contrasting with the limited echo to these cases especially in European partner countries.12 | China Digital Times (2016). ''Human Rights an ''Excuse'' for Harboring Suspects?'' June 13. http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2016/06/china- condemns-foreign-protection-corruption-fugitives/. Accessed: January 9, 2017.13 | Four of the five MLATs on criminal matters concluded since 2014 were with European states, including the UK and Italy. 14 | In 1998, China sent out its first liaison officer, stationing him in the US. In 2008, Beijing had only 5 such officers, but since then it has expanded its network of liaison officers to cover 31 countries (Ping, H. E (2008). ''The measures on combating money laundering and terrorism financing in the PRC.'' Journal of Money Laundering Control 11(4): 320-330; Wei Zhezhe 魏å'²å'² (2016). ''é(C)>>外è­...åŠè--ç>>'å®'' å'¨èŒåŠ¨ (''Police liaison officers stationed abroad'' in action). February 3. http://legal.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0203/c42510-28106138.html. Accessed: January 9, 2017. http://www.mps.gov.cn/n2255079/n4242954/n4841045/n4841050/c5212359/content.html) 15 | Foreign & Commonwealth Office United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (2015). ''UK-China Joint Statement on building a global comprehensive strategic partnership for the 21st Cen-tury.'' October 22. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-chi-na-joint-statement-2015. Accessed: January 9, 201716 | Europol (2016). ''29 arrests in Spain as result of joint operation targeting traffickers in human beings for sexual exploitation.'' April 22. https://www.europol.europa.eu/newsroom/news/29-arrests-in-spain-result-of-joint-operation-targeting-traffickers-in- human-beings-for-sexual-exploitation. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 17 | Lewis, Margret K. (2007). ''China's Implementation of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime.'' Asian Journal of Criminology 2(2): 179-193.18 | UN Security Council (2014). ''United Nations Security Council Resolu-tion 2178.'' September 24. http://www.un.org/en/sc/ctc/docs/2015/SCR%202178_2014_EN.pdf Accessed: January 9, 2017; UN Security Council (2015). ''United Nations Security Council Resolution 2240.'' October 9. http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc12072.doc.htm. Accessed: January 9, 2017.19 | At least in extradition treaty negotiations with 'šdifficult' Western partners, China appears to accept most demands regarding specific safeguards for the sake of overcoming Western qualms, as the French example has shown, see: Assembl(C)e Nationale (2015). ''Rapport fait au nom de la commission des affaires (C)trang¨res sur le projet de loi, autorisant la ratification du trait(C) d'extradition entre la R(C)publique fran§aise et la R(C)publique populaire de Chine.'' March 18. http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/14/rapports/r2668.asp#P253_68714. Accessed: January 9, 2017. MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
    • | 10YOUR CONTACT FOR THISISSUE OF CHINA MONITORThomas S. Ederthomas.eder@merics.deEDITOR Ruth KirchnerPUBLISHER'S DETAILSMERICS | Mercator Institute for China StudiesKlosterstraŸe 64 10179 BerlinTel.: +49 30 3440 999 0Mail: info@merics.dewww.merics.orgLAYOUT AND GRAPHICKathrin Hildebrandt hildebranding.comDESIGNSTOCKMAR+WALTER KommunikationsdesignISSN: 2509-3843 20 | This is of course no specifically Chinese behaviour '' other countries, the US in particular, have tried to control and use international law enforcement instruments for their own domestic ends long before, and have had much more influence on the priorities of internati-onal bodies so far. Prime examples include the US-led coalition in the global fight against terrorism after 2001, and again the US in internationalising its fight against corruption following the 1977 US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.21 | See for example: UN Action to Counter Terrorism. http://www.un.org/en/counterterrorism/. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 22 | Transparency International (2015). ''Tackle instability and terrorism by fighting corruption.'' February. http://www.transparency.org/news/feature/tackle_instability_and_terrorism_by_fighting_cor-ruption. Accessed: January 9, 2017.23 | For instance, Chinese opposition to more comprehensive anti-cor-ruption approaches and international efforts to increase government accountability has hampered the implementation of UNCAC, with Beijing both rejecting a binding peer-review mechanism and boycot-ting the UNCAC civil society review mechanism.24 | APEC (2014). ''Beijing Declaration on Fighting Corruption - 26th APEC Ministerial Meeting 2014.'' November 7. http://mddb.apec.org/Pages/search.aspx. Accessed: January 9, 2017.25 | G20 (2016). ''G20 Leaders' Communique Hangzhou Summit.'' September 6. http://www.g20chn.org/English/Documents/Cur-rent/201609/t20160906_3395.html. Accessed: January 9, 2017; Transparency International (2016). ''G20, China, corruption and asset recovery.'' September 2. http://www.transparency.org/news/feature/g20_china_corruption_and_asset_recovery. Accessed: January 9, 2017. 26 | Interpol (2015). ''INTERPOL General Assembly approves blueprint for Organization's future.'' November 5. http://www.interpol.int/News-and-media/News/2015/N2015-180.Accessed: January 9, 2017; BBC (2016). ''Chinese official Meng Hongwei to head Interpol.'' November 10. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-chi-na-37932927. Accessed: January 9, 2017.27 | The remarkable international resonance of the second 'žWorld Inter-net Conference'' in Wuzhen in December 2015 has been a testament to Beijing's capacity to promote its model multilaterally. The inter-national acceptance of 'cyber sovereignty' would de facto legitimize Chinese online censorship practices and the criminalization of online behavior of whatever sort, see: Xinhua (2015). ''2nd World Internet Conference concludes with initiative''. December 18. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-12/18/c_134931582.htm. Accessed: January 9, 2017. The SCO has also fully signed up to the Chinese visions, which are now also actively promoted via UN mechanisms, inter alia by the active pursuit of leading positions for Chinese nationals in the Inter-national Telecommunication Union (ITU).. 28 | In principle, a single tweet by a Chinese dissident issued in a SCO country could be viewed as a terrorist act under China's anti- terrorism law and enable Chinese authorities to legally claim the extradition of this individual under the SCO's extradition framework, see: Human Rights in China (HRIC) (2011). ''Counter-Terrorism and Human Rights: The Impact of the Shanghai Cooperation Organiz-ation.'' March. http://www.hrichina.org/en/publications/hric-report/ counter-terrorism-and-human-rights-impact-shanghai-cooperation-organization. Accessed: January 9, 2017.29 | Interpol (2014). ''International Cooperation Agreements - Memo-randum of Understanding between the International Criminal Police Organisation (Interpol) and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO-RATS).'' November 6. https://www.interpol.int/About-INTER-POL/Legal-materials/International-Cooperation-Agreements/Regio-nal-Organizations. Accessed: January 9, 2017.30 | National Post (2015). ''Chinese police run secret operations in B.C. to hunt allegedly corrupt officials and laundered money.'' March 5. http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/chinese- police-run-secret-operations-in-b-c-to-hunt-allegedly-corrupt-officials-and-laundered-money. Accessed: January 9, 2017.31 | Human Rights in China (HRIC) (2011). ''UN Human Rights Commit-tee Raises Concern over the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Its Review of Kazakhstan.'' July 29. http://www.hrichina.org/en/content/5507. Accessed: January 9, 2017; Guardian (2015). ''UN condemns Thai repatriation of Chinese dissidents.'' November 17. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/17/un- condemns-thailand-repatriation-chinese-dissidents. Accessed: January 9, 2017.32 | The Telegraph (2016). ''Beijing says corruption suspect 'špersuaded' to return from UK to China.'' January 14. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/12098865/Beijing-says-corruption-suspect-persuaded-to-return-from-UK-to-China.html. Accessed: January 9, 2017.MERICS | Mercator Institute for China Studies CHINA MONITOR | 18 January 2017
  • MADE IN CHINA 2025 [PDF]
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    • No 2 | December 2016MERICS PAPERS ON CHINAMADE IN CHINA 2025 The making of a high-tech superpower and consequences for industrial countriesJost W¼bbeke | Mirjam Meissner | Max J. ZengleinJaqueline Ives | Bj¶rn Conrad
    • MADE IN CHINA 2025 The making of a high-tech superpower and consequences for industrial countriesJost W¼bbeke | Mirjam Meissner | Max J. ZengleinJaqueline Ives | Bj¶rn Conrad
    • 4 | Made in China 2025Executive Summary ........................................................................\4..................................................................6China's industrial modernisation: a challenge to advanced economies ................................................... 6Made in China 2025 changes the terms of the game ........................................................................\1................. 6Taking over international high-tech enterprises ........................................................................\1..............................7Will Made in China 2025 succeed? A mixed picture ........................................................................\1....................... 8Key recommendations ........................................................................\4............................................................. 9Policy makers ........................................................................\1............................................................................................................. 9Industry associations ........................................................................\1........................................................................................... 9Suppliers of smart manufacturing technology ........................................................................\1..............................10Manufacturers using smart manufacturing ........................................................................\1..................................... 101. Smart manufacturing: China's chance to leap ahead in the global competition .................. 11Chinese techno-nationalism: a rising challenge for industrial countries .............................................. 12Concepts and key terms: smart manufacturing, Industry 4.0 and Industrial Internet ................ 132. Made in China 2025: a master plan for industrial leadership and import substitution .... 142.1 Politics, not business: the real driver behind China's smart manufacturing boom .............. 152.2 Top-down strategy pushes smart manufacturing ........................................................................\1............. 172.3 China's aim is technology substitution ........................................................................\1...................................... 203. Strengths and limitations of Made in China 2025 ........................................................................\4. 223.1 Powerful instruments for implementation ........................................................................\1............................. 223.2 The strengths come with inherent weaknesses ........................................................................\1................ 263.3 Economic challenges impair policy effectiveness ........................................................................\1.............. 274. Manufacturers: a small but growing group of challengers to industrial countries ........... 294.1 Frontrunners combine business interest with policy support .......................................................... 304.2 Hopefuls: winning or losing? ........................................................................\1............................................................. 334.3 Latecomers: losing out in the years ahead ........................................................................\1............................. 355. Chinese tech suppliers: lagging behind but rising ........................................................................\4 375.1 Status-quo: dependence on foreign technology ........................................................................\1............... 375.2 Political goals and instruments: making Chinese tech suppliers dominant in China ......... 385.3 Fast technological catch-up ........................................................................\1.............................................................. 405.4 Strong increase in international technology acquisition necessary .............................................. 415.5 Conclusion ........................................................................\1....................................................................................................... 41Case Studies ........................................................................\4............................................................................. 43Case study 1: Industrial robots ........................................................................\1................................................................. 43Case study 2: Industrial software, cloud computing and big data .......................................................... 46Case study 3: 3D printing ........................................................................\1............................................................................. 48ContentsMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 5ContentsFigures 1: Under Pressure: Industrialised countries will feel the heat of Made in China 2025 2: Automation in China's industry is low 3: Chinese productivity is low 4: Labour costs in China are still moderate 5: Smart manufacturing is high on the agenda 6: Made in China 2025 aims at substitution 7: China pushes industrial upgrading 8: The ''robot craze'' of China's local governments 9: Chinese enterprises are less and less willing to purchase new equipment 10: Made in China 2025: replacing foreign smart manufacturing technology 11: China's tech suppliers receive generous subsidies 12: Increasing innovation in Industry 4.0 in China 13: China's innovation in Industry 4.0 focuses on robots, industrial communication and sensors 14: China is the largest robot market 15: Chinese robot manufacturers depend on foreign suppliers for key components 16: Huge demand for industrial software 17: Huge growth potential of 3D printing in China 18: The state hides behind investment management companies 19: The Fujian connection 20: China goes its own way in cloud computing and big data 21: Under Pressure: Industrialised countries will feel the heat of Made in China 2025Tables 1: Industrial policy for technological progress 2: China's smart manufacturing boom is unequally distributed 3: Leaders in smart manufacturing 4: Political support for hopefuls 5: Still a long way to go for Industry 3.0 and Industry 4.0 6: Technology catch-up varies between technologies 7: Growing number of acquisitions of foreign tech suppliers 8: Future impact of China's industrial policy on foreign manufacturers and tech suppliers 9: List of implementation documents for Made in China 2025 in the field of smart manufacturing6. Implications for industrial countries ........................................................................\4........................... 506.1 Industrial policy measures challenge foreign companies ..................................................................... 506.2 Made in China 2025 could harm business of foreign enterprises .................................................. 576.3 China's industrial policy puts pressure on industrial countries ......................................................... 597. Recommendations ........................................................................\4.............................................................. 617.1 Recommendations for policy makers ........................................................................\1........................................... 617.2 Recommendations for industry associations and chambers ............................................................. 637.3 Recommendations for suppliers of smart manufacturing technology ...................................... 647.4 Recommendations for companies using smart manufacturing ....................................................... 658. Annex ........................................................................\4..................................................................................... 66Endnotes ........................................................................\1................................................................................................................... 67The authors ........................................................................\4............................................................................... 72MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 6 | Executive SummaryCHINA'S INDUSTRIAL MODERNISATION: A CHALLENGE TO ADVANCED ECONOMIESThis report analyses China's ambitious plan to build one of the world's most advanced and compet-itive economies with the help of innovative manufacturing technologies (''smart manufacturing''). China's industrial masterplan ''Made in China 2025'' aims to turn the country into a ''manufacturing superpower'' over the coming decades. This industrial policy will challenge the economic primacy of the current leading economies and international corporations. The strategy targets virtually all high-tech industries that strongly contribute to economic growth in advanced economies: automotive, aviation, machinery, robotics, high-tech maritime and railway equipment, energy-saving vehicles, medical devices and information technology to name only a few. Countries in which these high-tech industries contribute a large share of economic growth are most vulnerable to China's plans (see graphic below). This report examines the repercussions of Made in China 2025 focusing specifically on smart manufacturing. The promotion and dissemination of smart manufacturing technology is the cen-trepiece of the strategy, borrowing from the German concept of Industry 4.0 and the Industrial Internet formulated in the United States. By energetically upgrading the mostly backward indus-trial processes of China's manufacturing sector, the Chinese government hopes to enhance the competitiveness of its enterprises on domestic markets and to propel their global expansion.MADE IN CHINA 2025 CHANGES THE TERMS OF THE GAMEThe political push for industrial modernisation in China creates an enormous demand for smart manufacturing products like industrial robots, smart sensors, wireless sensor networks and radio frequency identification chips. For many foreign enterprises, this initially provides highly attrac-tive business opportunities: the transformation of China's manufacturing base requires advanced Figure 1Source: MERICS(C) MERICS Under Pressure: Industrialised countries will feel the heat of Made in China 2025Vulnerability of select industrial countries to Made in China 2025 510 15 2025 30 35510 15202530Importance of high-tech industriesShare of manufacturing value-added contributed by high-tech industries (per cent)Dependence on manufacturingShare of manufacturing value-added of GDP (per cent)35 4045505560657000low exposureMaltaLatviaLithuaniaBulgariaRomania Czech RepublicHungaryJapan South KoreaGermanyIrelandSlovakiaAustriaDenmarkSpainPolandFinland SwedenItaly BelgiumUnited StatesNetherlandsFranceUnited Kingdom SloveniaEstoniaGreeceCyprusLuxembourg CroatiaPortugal high exposureMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 7Executive Summarytechnologies that Chinese suppliers are not able to provide at their current technological lev-el. China's industrial upgrading, in the short-term, can mean tremendous profits for international companies. For China's economic partners in Europe and the United States, it could even open opportunities for a mutually beneficial deepening of economic, technological as well as political cooperation. In principle, the global economy has good reasons to welcome China's quest for in-creased innovation capacity, provided that China abides by the principles and rules of open mar-kets and fair competition.However, Made in China 2025 in its current form represents exactly the opposite: China's leadership systematically intervenes in domestic markets so as to benefit and facilitate the eco-nomic dominance of Chinese enterprises and to disadvantage foreign competitors. This is visible in smart manufacturing as well as in many other high-tech industries targeted by the strategy. In essence, Made in China 2025 aims for substitution: China seeks to gradually replace foreign with Chinese technology at home '' and to prepare the ground for Chinese technology companies entering international markets. Indications of this intention are omnipresent in Made in China 2025. The strategy stress-es terms like ''indigenous innovations'' and ''self-sufficiency''. It intends to increase the domestic market share of Chinese suppliers for ''basic core components and important basic materials'' to 70 per cent by the year 2025. Semi-official documents related to the strategy set very concrete benchmarks for certain segments: 40 per cent of mobile phone chips on the Chinese market are supposed to be produced in China by 2025, as well as 70 per cent of industrial robots and 80 per cent of renewable energy equipment. In order to achieve these goals, government entities at all levels funnel large amounts of money into China's industrial future. The recently established Advanced Manufacturing Fund alone amounts to 20 billion CNY (2.7 billion EUR). The National Integrated Circuit Fund even re-ceived 139 billion CNY (19 billion EUR). These national level funds are complemented by a pleth-ora of provincial level financing vehicles. The financial resources are enormous compared to, for instance, the 200 million EUR of federal funding that the German government has provided for research on Industry 4.0 technologies so far. While Chinese high-tech companies enjoy massive state backing, their foreign competitors in China face a whole set of barriers to market access and obstacles to their business activities: the closing of the market for information technology, the exclusion from local subsidy schemes, the low level of data security and the intensive collection of digital data by the Chinese state. As China's own smart manufacturing capabilities mature, it is likely that the Chinese state will further step up its discriminatory practices and restrictions of market access in the field of smart manufacturing. At the moment, however, these barriers are not yet as established in smart manufacturing as in other areas such as the service sector and the aviation industry. Made in China 2025 is in its early days and there are still opportunities to adjust its direction and targets, at least in some sectors. If the incoming administration in the United States implements the protectionist agenda announced during the election campaign, Europe's negotiation position will potential-ly improve. Keeping global trade and investment flows open will become an overarching shared interest between Europe and China. Europe's economic importance for China will increase and vice-versa. Despite all current frictions, this mid-term shift in the global economy will potentially open new avenues for negotiating the conditions of Sino-European economic relations, including in smart-manufacturing.TAKING OVER INTERNATIONAL HIGH-TECH ENTERPRISESMade in China 2025 also has an outward-looking dimension: the accelerating acquisition of inter-national high-tech companies by Chinese investors. To speed up China's technological catch-up and to leapfrog stages of technological development, Chinese companies are acquiring core tech-nologies through investment abroad. In itself, this is neither surprising nor objectionable. Howev-er, China's technology acquisitions are partly supported and guided by the state. China pursues an outbound industrial policy with government capital and highly opaque investor networks to China seeks to gradually replace foreign with Chinese technology.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 8 | Executive Summaryfacilitate high-tech acquisitions abroad. This undermines the principles of fair competition: China's state-led economic system is exploiting the openness of market economies in Europe and the United States. Chinese high-tech investments need to be interpreted as building blocks of an overarch-ing political programme. It aims to systematically acquire cutting-edge technology and generate large-scale technology transfer. In the long term, China wants to obtain control over the most profitable segments of global supply chains and production networks. If successful, Made in China 2025 could accelerate the erosion of industrial countries' current technological leadership across industrial sectors. As illustrated by the fierce discussions surrounding recent high-profile high-tech acquisitions, governments in Europe and the U.S. increasingly perceive this dimension of China's quest for technological upgrading as a crucial and pressing challenge.WILL MADE IN CHINA 2025 SUCCEED? A MIXED PICTUREMade in China 2025 will have a major impact on China's domestic as well as international markets. However, this report finds that the strategy is at the same time limited by a number of significant weaknesses, diminishing its scope and impact. The strategy is likely to succeed in elevating a small vanguard of Chinese manufacturers to a higher level of efficiency and productivity. These frontrunners are likely to dominate their sectors on the Chinese market and become fierce com-petitors on international markets. At the same time, Made in China 2025 will probably fail in its endeavour to catalyse a com-prehensive, broad-scale technological upgrading across the Chinese economy. The strategy's ef-fectiveness is limited by the mismatch between political priorities and industry needs, the fixation on quantitative targets, inefficient allocation of funding and campaign-style overspending by lo-cal governments. The lack of bottom-up initiative and investment is a pronounced weakness of Made in China 2025. In addition, structural factors will further diminish the effectiveness of the policy: China's economy is currently experiencing downward pressure. Upgrading the production processes might result in job losses among the less skilled workforce. On the other hand, China's education system is not prepared for training skilled personnel capable of operating sophisticated smart manufacturing tools. As a result, the overarching goal of Made in China 2025, the deep trans-formation of China's entire manufacturing base, will most probably not be reached within the ambitious timeframe set by the Chinese leadership. This is no reason for complacency. Despite its weak spots, Made in China 2025 is a reflection of China's sophisticated and strategic industrial policy. The strategy will rapidly increase the global competitiveness of key Chinese companies, selectively targeting the most important industries of the future. Made in China 2025 is a forceful and smart challenge to the leading economies of today. European and U.S. decision makers in politics and business will have to provide equally smart answers to this challenge.Made in China 2025 is a forceful and smart challenge to the leading economies of today.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 9Key recommendationsDecision makers in politics and business will have to identify adequate responses to the powerful Made in China 2025 strategy. The report formulates several courses of action to support effec-tive responses (see chapter 7 for extended recommendations):POLICY MAKERS Rethink investment screening options. Policy makers need to consider expanding their set of policy options to react to state-led acquisitions of high-tech enterprises. Plausible policy options include: ' increasing transparency by tightening disclosure requirements for state-led acquisitions; ' extending the scope of national security screenings; ' deploying competition policy more broadly for reviewing state-owned investors; ' establishing ''reciprocity'' measures to address and negotiate Chinese investment barriers; ' screening state-led investments for systematic acquisition of essential high technology. Implement a targeted industrial policy for crucial cyber technologies. As a pro-active re-sponse to China's strategic industrial policy, European policy makers should set out to design and implement a narrowly targeted industrial policy themselves, focusing on strategic infant industries. Europe's cyber defence industry should be the top-priority for such promotional and protective policies. Public investment in European cyber defence businesses and start-ups would provide a much needed upgrade of protection against cyberattacks of state or non-state origin that carry increasing security, political and economic risks (i.e. beyond the risks of military sabotage: manipulation of democratic public opinion and elections, economic espionage, tech-nology theft). EU and national governments need to thoroughly screen and, where necessary, prohibit foreign takeovers of cyber defence-related hardware and software companies on na-tional security grounds. Monitor and investigate potential WTO violations. The European Union as well as the United States should investigate whether China's technology substitution strategy and specifically localisation targets (e.g. a minimum share of Chinese technology on domestic markets) violate the stipulations on local content requirements under the WTO treaties. Seize emerging new avenues for negotiation. If a protectionist shift in United States trade and investment policy becomes real, China will need Europe as a reliable partner in keeping global trade and investment flows open, and vice-versa. This provides European governments with new leverage in negotiating the conditions of Sino-European economic relations. Europe-an policy makers should be prepared to make effective use of this leverage.INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS Strengthen on-the-ground information gathering and sharing. Decision makers urgently need more information on China's industrial policies applied in the context of Made in China 2025. Industry associations, through their presence on the ground, are in a strong position to improve information gathering on smart manufacturing policies in China. Increase information through intensified dialogue. Deepening exchange with Chinese smart manufacturing associations, industry partners and alliances as well as policy institutes will help provide early information about policy planning and implementation. In addition, reg-ular dialogues can serve as a platform for discussing and solving technical issues that do not require decision making at the political level. Use opportunities to influence standardisation processes. The window of opportunity for influencing technological standardisation in China is still open. Foreign industry associations and large corporations should expand their activities and capacities in this regard.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 10 | Key recommendationsSUPPLIERS OF SMART MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY Prevent unidirectional technology transfer. Increasing digitisation in combination with weak data security in China makes core technologies highly vulnerable. An effective method of pro-tection would be to limit technical cooperation and digital integration to areas in which Chinese companies are already at an advanced technological level. These areas include 5G mobile net-works, wireless sensor networks, 3D printing, industrial e-commerce, cloud computing and big data. Act with caution regarding R&D activities in China. If a loss of core technology to Chinese competitors seems possible, international enterprises should exclude critical knowledge and technologies from their R&D activities in China. This can minimise the risks of involuntary tech-nology transfer.MANUFACTURERS USING SMART MANUFACTURING Avoid illusions about the technology gap. Complacency is a major risk for advanced indus-tries. Currently, European and American companies are still well advanced in the use of smart manufacturing in comparison to most of their Chinese competitors. But some Chinese compa-nies will catch up quickly. To avoid being caught on the wrong foot, European and United States companies need to maintain their focus on their own technological advancement. Coordinate for collective action. International companies in China need to explore ways of building leverage to influence the Chinese leadership's decision making on industrial policy and cyber security regulations. Coordinating approaches among foreign companies, thus creating negotiating power through collective pressure, is one way of building leverage.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 111. Smart manufacturing: China's chance to leap ahead in the global competitionGlobal industry is at the brink of the next technological revolution. The combination of intelligent machines, modern communication, big data and cloud computing is creating a disruptive change in industrial production. ''Smart Manufacturing'', ''Industry 4.0'' and ''Industrial Internet'' are different labels for this upcoming transformation. Governments and industries around the world recognise that this new technology paradigm will reshape the dynamics and rules of global competition. The race for advanced industrial production could decide the fate of large corporations and even the overall development of entire economies.China sees this global race as an excellent opportunity to catch up technologically and eco-nomically with industrial countries. The goal is to become a global leader in manufacturing high quality and high-tech products by the first half of the 21st century and to substitute Chinese tech-nology for foreign versions on domestic and global markets. Achieving this goal hinges on three factors: the ability to develop innovative products, to create internationally well-known brands and to build modern industrial production facilities. The leadership around Xi Jinping wants to use the third factor, industrial modernisation, in particular to boost China's international economic competitiveness. China understands well that the country's future economic progress and pros-perity cannot be based on rusting factories and manual labour. China is, however, in a poor starting position in the global race for smart manufacturing. The current level of automation and digitisation in China's industry is much lower than in industrial countries. China's government will make every effort to get ahead in the current transition to-wards smart manufacturing. In doing so, the leadership's instrument is a vigorous, comprehensive and ambitious industrial policy, embodied in the long-term strategy called Made in China 2025. Through this political initiative, China is channelling tremendous financial resources to support the technological upgrading of Chinese enterprises. This policy is already starting to create a boom in demand for technologies such as industrial software, sensor networks and robots. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the policy implementation process so far, this MERICS Paper on China concludes that in smart manufacturing the success of Made in China 2025 will be mixed. China's most ambitious goal of a broad-scale and economy-wide upgrading of industry within the next decade will very likely not be reached due to weaknesses in the design and implementation of the policy. Its broad catch-all approach does not meet the specific needs of many enterprises, allocation of funding is inefficient and local governments are overspending. In addition, contextual factors including downward pressure on China's overall economy, the latent impact of automation on the labour market and skill shortages significantly decrease the ability and willingness of most Chinese enterprises to invest in an expensive upgrading of production equipment. While the political strategy is likely to miss its target of broad-scale industrial upgrading, it will be markedly successful in elevating essential parts of Chinese industry, creating a small but impactful group of global leaders in smart manufacturing. This report emphasises the catalysing effect of the policy on two distinct categories of enterprises: Manufacturers. They employ automation and digitisation to improve the production of com-modities such as cars, aeroplanes or refrigerators. Industrial policy will help to create or further elevate a small vanguard of Chinese manufacturers that will achieve a highly advanced level of efficiency and productivity through smart manufacturing within the next decade. These frontrun-ner manufacturers will successfully utilise modern production methods to considerably improve their competitiveness in domestic and international markets. Technology suppliers for smart manufacturing. Tech suppliers produce, integrate and sell technologies needed for automation and digitisation such as robots, industrial software and Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) chips. Industrial policy will help to build a small number of highly advanced Chinese national champions that are able to supply state-of-the art technology. The tech suppliers will be increasingly capable of competing with leading foreign tech suppliers domestically and globally.China is channelling tremendous financial resources to support the technological upgrading of Chinese enterprises.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 12 | Chapter 1CHINESE TECHNO-NATIONALISM: A RISING CHALLENGE FOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIESEven with mixed success, China's technology policy will create tremendous challenges for inter-national corporations and entire economies of industrial countries. The economic advancement of China is principally positive and can create mutually beneficial opportunities for China and its economic partners. It would be unproductive to perceive China's technological rise as a zero-sum game in which increased Chinese strength directly weakens other industrial countries. However, it is a valid concern that the active industrial policy by the Chinese state results in an uneven playing field in which foreign competitors are at a disadvantage. Chinese frontrunner manufacturers and their advanced production lines will increase the global competitive pressure in high-tech industries, for instance in electronics and machinery. They will actively challenge the leadership of foreign manufacturers in the very industries that represent the key pillars of economic prosperity in many industrial countries. Foreign tech suppliers will initially greatly benefit from the smart manufacturing boom in China. China is currently still highly dependent on foreign technology to implement its ambitious upgrading plans. However, these market opportunities will sharply diminish within the next dec-ade. Chinese tech suppliers will become more sophisticated and will improve their products with the help of political support and protection. The Chinese state also increasingly pushes its tech suppliers and manufacturers to acquire essential technologies abroad in order to close the tech-nology gap. These state-led foreign direct investments (FDI) could contribute to a hollowing out of the technological lead of industrial countries. Enterprises, business associations and governments in Europe will now have to respond to the challenges of Chinese technology nationalism in manufacturing. The potential consequences of European political and industrial inaction arising from complacency about Europe's advanced level of production and underestimation of the Chinese catch-up process are severe. For that rea-son, this report aims to present the characteristics of Chinese industrial policy on automation and digitisation as well as the challenges and options for European stakeholders. The report is based on an extensive examination of Chinese-language sources including pol-icy documents, expert journals and newspaper articles. The authors interviewed more than 60 experts from enterprises, associations and political positions during field research in China and Europe. Additionally, the report is complemented by quantitative analyses of patent activities, subsidies and other categories. The analysis will start with the paramount role of Made in China 2025 for industrial upgrad-ing in China (Chapter 2). It then illustrates the advantages and limitations of this policy in catalys-ing the broad-scale application of smart manufacturing throughout the Chinese industrial sector (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 will show how smart manufacturing strengthens Chinese manufacturers. Chapter 5 assesses the trajectory of the increasing competitiveness of Chinese tech suppliers. The report will conclude with an overview of challenges for the economies and enterprises of industrial countries (Chapter 6) and will provide recommendations for European stakeholders in politics and business (Chapter 7).Chinese frontrunner manufacturers will increase the global competitive pressure in high-tech industries.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 13Chapter 1CONCEPTS AND KEY TERMS: SMART MANUFACTURING, INDUSTRY 4.0 AND INDUSTRIAL INTERNETSmart manufacturing refers to the use of automation and digitisation technology in indus-trial production and organisation. Historically, the innovation of production technologies has caused leaps in productivity and disruption in existing market structures. Industrial development has undergone three major revolutions: the 1st revolution in the late 18th century (''Industry 1.0''): mechanical production driven by steam and water power; the 2nd revolution in the late 19th century (''Industry 2.0''): electrification of machines and mass production; the 3rd revolution in the 1970s (''Industry 3.0''): industrial robots, programmable logic controllers and IT-based production management.Production in industrial countries today mostly uses the tools and systems of the third revolution. Currently, a potential fourth disruption to global manufacturing, often called Industry 4.0 or Industrial Internet, is predicted. This technological change is characterised by the combination of advanced internet and communication technologies, embedded systems and intelligent machines. In so-called Cyber-Physical Systems, connected machines collect massive amounts of data through smart sensors, communicate with each other and independently make de-cisions. These systems create and analyse big data to optimise production processes and logistics. Whereas the German term Industry 4.0 emphasises engineering, the American In-dustrial Internet focuses more on the software-related elements of smart manufacturing.Industry 4.0 and the Industrial Internet are supposed to increase productivity by reducing idle times, improving predictive and preventive maintenance of equipment and making logistics more efficient. Moreover, the software integration of manufacturing execution systems (MES) and customer relations management (CRM) should increase the flexibility of production and the degree of customisation (mass customisation). The terms Industry 4.0 and Industrial Internet should be used with care as both concepts have also attracted some criticism. These terms are also marketing vehicles to better promote new products for application in industry. Most importantly, Industry 4.0 and Industrial Internet still have to prove whether they really can deliver a fourth revolu-tion. This report uses these terms only to refer to the relevant technologies and potential applications that lie behind them. The concept of advanced manufacturing used in this report is much broader than Industry 4.0 and the Industrial Internet. Chinese industry currently still uses the tools and systems of the second industrial revolution and has only begun to embrace the third revolution. Chinese enterprises are only starting to use technologies which are already widespread in industrial countries. The Chinese definition of smart manufacturing often mixes the third industrial revolution with Industry 4.0 and the Industrial Internet. In line with the Chinese understanding, this report adopts a broad definition of smart manufacturing. This includes technologies of the third industrial revolution, such as traditional industrial robots, industry software and computerised machine tools, as well as cutting-edge production technologies, such as wireless sensor networks, intelligent robots and integrated software processes. This report only uses the term Industry 4.0 in cases where it explicitly seeks to demarcate the most advanced technological level from the third industrial revolution.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 14 | 2. Made in China 2025: a master plan for industrial leadership and import substitutionChina's industrial production is still backward compared to industrial countries. Most Chinese fac-tories feature a rudimentary level of automation and almost no digitisation. For instance, Chinese enterprises utilise an average of just 19 industrial robots per 10,000 industry employees. This compares to 531 in South Korea, 301 in Germany and 176 in the United States (Figure 2).1 Labour productivity is several times lower than in industrial and even some developing countries (Figure 3). Technology leaders such as Germany and Japan, in contrast, make intensive use of production lines and management processes based on modern information technology and highly automated machines. Starting from a low level, Chinese industry is currently experiencing a rapid increase in de-mand for automation and digitisation technology. Chinese enterprises mostly demand basic tech-KEY FINDINGS Starting from a very low level, China's industrial production technology is currently experiencing rapid growth in smart manufacturing. However, bottom-up enterprise initia-tives in advanced production technol-ogy are generally still weak and do not explain the current boom. Instead, China's top-down industrial policy is the main driver behind smart manufacturing in China. The Chinese leadership sees smart manufacturing as a key tool for chal-lenging the technological dominance of industrial countries and simultaneously defending China's low-end industries against growing competition from developing countries. A central goal of Chinese industrial policy on smart manufacturing is to gradually substitute foreign technology with Chinese versions.Figure 2(C) MERICS Automation in China's industry is lowDensity of industrial robots per 10,000 workers in 2015 Source: IFR, data for China adjusted by MERICS0100 200 300 400 500 600South KoreaSingapore JapanGermanyUnited States ChinaMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 15Chapter 2nologies that have been in use in industrial countries for a long time. Market growth for typical Industry 3.0 technologies such as industrial software, traditional industrial robots and industrial sensors was between 10 and 25 per cent in 2015. But market figures also demonstrate that Chi-na's industry has already started to invest in technology relevant to the next generation of indus-trial production (Industry 4.0). For instance, demand for big data, cloud computing, wireless sensor networks (WSN) and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) grew by 20 to 25 per cent in 2015.2 2.1 POLITICS, NOT BUSINESS: THE REAL DRIVER BEHIND CHINA'S SMART MANUFACTURING BOOMThe smart manufacturing boom in China is mainly not driven by bottom-up enterprise initiatives. Most Chinese enterprises are reluctant and risk-averse when it comes to investing in high-tech equipment for production. The managers of the enterprises rather opt for low-cost and good-enough solutions with low upfront investment. Apart from a few frontrunners, enterprise initi-atives tend to be weak when compared to other countries. According to a survey, 21 per cent of Chinese enterprises state that they are testing or using Industry 4.0 applications (the correspond-ing figure for German enterprises is 40 per cent).3Most Chinese enterprises feel no pressure to undergo a lengthy and costly upgrade toward modern production capacity. Firstly, many enterprises are not exposed to the pressures of free market competition in an economy that is characterised by intense state interference. They lack the incentives to strengthen market power by increasing productivity and improving production technology. Instead, many enterprises can rely on political protection to achieve market domi-nance. Secondly, Chinese manufacturing labour costs and minimum wages are increasing, but they are still moderate and only slightly higher than in neighbouring Southeast Asian countries (Figure 4). Employing a large workforce often still represents the cheaper option compared to major in-vestment in new equipment. While local labour shortages characterised the period following the global economic and financial crisis in 2008, Chinese manufacturing\1 now once more has a surfeit of workers with low and medium skills. Several factors are beginning to gradually change the cost-benefit calculation of Chinese enterprises as they are slowly moving towards more investment in high automation. For some labour-intensive industries such as garment production and in some localities such as the Canton-China's economy is in urgent need of a new innovation- driven growth model.Figure 3(C) MERICS Chinese productivity is lowLabour productivity in selected countries (GDP per employee, constant 2011 PPP in USD)Sources: World Bank, MERICS020,000 40,00060,000 80,000100,000120,000JapanGermany VietnamMalaysiaUnited States ChinaEU 2000 2015 MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 16 | Chapter 2ese city of Dongguan, wage pressure is already relatively high. This pressure provides an incentive for enterprises to spend more on automated machines. In addition, factory planners increasingly substitute robots for workers who are no longer willing to undertake stressful tasks such as var-nishing, welding and polishing, even if they are well paid. But across China's manufacturing sector, these trends are not widespread enough to lead to a decisive and broad upgrading of Chinese manufacturing technology.An advanced industry: a key tool for escaping the middle-income trapWhile enterprises are still hesitant, the Chinese government is the main driving force behind the smart manufacturing boom in China. Prime Minister Li Keqiang stated that ''the manufacturing industry is a main pillar for the national economy, main opportunities must be used. The transition towards smart manufacturing is essential''.4 China's political leaders see a modern industry as an important ingredient in solving the country's overarching economic challenge: China's economy is in urgent need of a new innovation-driven growth model. The push for smart manufacturing is closely associated with China's reform agenda to re-vamp the basic structures of its economy and adapt to future needs. The agenda, adopted at the third plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party in 2013, listed reforms in areas such as state-owned enterprises, fiscal policy, financial system and market access for foreigners. However, progress is so far mixed and original promises of liberalisation, such as in the state-owned sector, turned out to be illusionary. Without important change in the economic system and the modernisation of its industry, the country risks being stuck in mediocrity between industrial and developing countries. As expressed in the Made in China 2025 strategy, ''China's manufacturing industry faces the serious challenge of a 'double pressure' between industrial and other developing countries''. Advanced manufactur-ing is expected to help China to address this double pressure. Firstly, the aim is to challenge the market dominance of industrial countries. To avoid the middle-income trap, China is seeking to make a leap forward towards becoming a leading ''Manu-facturing Superpower'' (å¶é 强国) and ''Internet Superpower'' (网ç>>'强国). The goal is essentially to build an economic structure and capabilities similar to that of Germany and Japan: a strong industrial country based on a robust and innovative manufacturing industry. Modern production The goal is to build an economic structure and capabilities similar to that of Germany and Japan.Figure 4(C) MERICS Labour costs in China are still moderateMinimum wages in Asia in USD per month as of September 2016 (highest prevailing minimum wage)Source: MERICS0200 400 6008001,000 1,200South KoreaHong Kong TaiwanChina highestMalaysiaChina medianCambodiaChina lowestMyanmarVietnamBangladeshPhilippinesThailandIndonesiaMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 17Chapter 2facilities will be the key to achieving the same level of productivity and product quality as found in established industrial countries.Secondly, China's leaders seek to defend the country's status as the ''factory of the world'' for low-value industries against developing countries. Wage increases have not yet caused large-scale offshoring, but the Chinese leadership sees the relocation of factories to Southeast Asian neighbours as a serious medium-term threat. Reshoring to industrial countries, as demonstrated by the recent re-opening of a highly automated Adidas shoe factory in Germany and reindustri-alisation in the U.S., is a growing issue. With automation and digitisation of industry, the Chinese government wants to maintain the advantage of low manufacturing costs in industries such as textiles.52.2 TOP-DOWN STRATEGY PUSHES SMART MANUFACTURINGThe government is seeking to attain its goals through political campaigning and financial support. In 2015, China's government initiated a very comprehensive, forward-looking and smart master-plan for economic and industrial modernisation: Made in China 2025 (中国å¶é 2025). The strat-egy builds on decades of industrial policy making. It is not radically new but it is larger in scope and backed up with greater resources than past industrial policies. It integrates a great number of previously largely uncoordinated efforts to promote smart manufacturing.6 On this basis, the long-term plan looks far into the future, boldly and ambitiously outlining China's technological development path until 2049, with 2025 merely representing an intermediary step. Made in China 2025 is strongly inspired by Germany's Industry 4.0 strategy. The Chinese Academy of Engineering embraced the German concept when drafting its ''Manufacturing Super-power'' report in 2013. The report served as a scientific foundation for the formulation of Made in China 2025.7 Following the Academy's report, the political leadership kicked off an energetic campaign in 2014. President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Li Keqiang and Deputy Prime Minister Ma Kai made important comments on Industry 4.0 and paid and received several state visits to and from Germany revolving around cooperation on this topic. Made in China 2025 is a top-down strategy. The leadership imposes its policy priorities and strategic vision for industrial upgrading on a manufacturing industry that has so far been largely hesitant about industrial modernisation. This strong role of policy as the driver of smart manu-facturing development stands in stark contrast to the pivotal role of enterprise initiative in the bottom-up process in Germany, the United States and many other countries. The high political relevance of Made in China 2025 is also reflected in powerful institution-al backing for smart manufacturing. The inter-ministerial Leading Small Group for Constructing a Manufacturing Superpower, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Ma Kai, is responsible for mac-ro-strategic planning and coordination (Figure 5). The Ministry of Industry and Information Tech-nology (MIIT), China's powerful administration for industrial policy, is tasked with the implementa-tion of the policies. Made in China 2025 goes far beyond the scope of comparable strategies for the automation and digitisation of industry in other countries. The plan embodies a comprehensive and strate-gically interlinked battery of industrial policies, geared towards the overall goal of turning China into a ''Manufacturing Superpower''. This goal applies in particular to ten high-tech industries such as the automotive industry and energy equipment. Besides smart manufacturing, Made in China 2025 also includes provisions on innovation in manufacturing, product quality management and sustainable production (Table 1). As for smart manufacturing, the plan is to upgrade production technology across the en-tire industry: large- and small-scale, state-owned and private enterprises. Important tasks are the commercialisation of smart manufacturing technologies, the application of smart manufacturing in key enterprises, the construction of intelligent factories and the development of service-ori-ented manufacturing. In particular, high-end computerised numeric control machine tools, indus-trial robots and advanced IT are the focus of the plan.Made in China 2025 goes far beyond the scope of comparable strategies for industrial digiti-sation in other countries.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 18 | Chapter 2(C) MERICS Smart manufacturing is high on the agendaPolitical organisations behind Made in China 2025Source: MERICSFigure 5Vice Premier Ma Kai é(C)¬å‡¯Leading Small Group for Constructing a Manufacturing Superpower 国家å¶é 强国å>>ºè®¾é†å¯¼å°ç>> (26 members: State Council executive meeting + ministries)LeadershipNational Development and Reform Commission 国家发展å'Œæ--¹é'(C)å§--å‘会Ministry LevelMinistry of Industry and InformationTechnology 工业å'Œä息化部General Officeé†å¯¼å°ç>>办公室Ministry of Science andTechnology 科å­...æŠæ'¯éƒ¨Chinese Academy of Engineering 中国工程é (Centre for Strategic Advice æ略å'¨è¯ä¸­åƒ)China Center for Information IndustryDevelopment 中国ç--µå­ä息产业发展ç --ç(C)¶éExpertLevelElectronic TechnologyInformation Research Instituteç--µå­ç§‘å­...æŠæ'¯æƒ…报ç --ç(C)¶æ‰China Academy of Telecommunication Research中国ä息éšäç --ç(C)¶éNational Expert Commission for Constructing a Manufacturing Superpower 国家å¶é 强国å>>ºè®¾æ略å'¨è¯å§--å‘China Industrial SoftwareDevelopment Alliance 中国工业软ä>>¶äº§ä¸šå‘展è--盟Policy-IndustryInteractionAlliance for the Development of Industrial Internet 工业äº'è--网产业è--盟Smart Manufacturing Industry Alliance æºèƒ½å¶é 产业è--盟Alliance for the Promotion of the Digitisation of Industry 国家两化融åå›æ–°æŽ¨è›è--盟Smart Manufacturing Promotion Alliance æºèƒ½å¶é 推è›è--盟China Machinery Industry Federation 中国æ'ºæ°å·¥ä¸šè--åä¼šcommissionsheadscontrolscontrolscontrolsheadsheadsparticipatescoordinatesparticipatesparticipatesMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 19Chapter 2(C) MERICS Industrial policy for technological progressThe main targets of Made in China 2025Notes: *accumulated indicator based on data from 250,000 enterprises; criteria include current implementation of quality management and supervision as well as potential for future quality improvementsSource: State Council, National Bureau of StatisticsTable 1Indicators2013201520202025InnovationShare of R&D spending of operating revenue (in %) 0.880.95 1.261.68Invention patents per 100 million CNY total revenue 0.360.44 0.71.1QualityQuality competitiveness index* 83.183.5 84.585.5Growth of industrial value-added (in %) 9.75.9 7.99.9Productivity growth (in %, annual average) 7.36.6 7.56.5Digitisation of IndustryBroadband internet (penetration in %) 3750 7082Use of digital design tools in R&D (penetration in %) 5258 7284Use of numerical control machines in key production processes (penetration in %) 2733 5064Environmental ProtectionDecrease in industrial energy intensity (in % compared to 2015) ---18 -34Decrease in CO2 emission intensity (in % compared to 2015) ---22 -40Decrease in water usage intensity (in % compared to 2015) ---23 -41Reuse of solid industrial waste (in % of total waste) 6265 7379Key technologies targeted by Made in China 2025' New generation information technology' High-end computerised machines and robots' Space and aviation' Maritime equipment and high-tech ships' Advanced railway transportation equipment' New energy and energy-saving vehicles' Energy equipment ' Agricultural machines' New materials' Biopharma and high-tech medical devicesMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 20 | Chapter 22.3 CHINA'S AIM IS TECHNOLOGY SUBSTITUTIONChina's industrial policy in manufacturing and digitisation ultimately aims to achieve technological catch-up and import substitution. The political leadership intends to gradually substitute foreign technology with Chinese technology (localisation). Chinese high-tech industries, in particular the national champions, are expected to acquire the capabilities to create independent innovative technological solutions and replace their foreign competitors on the domestic market and increas-ingly also on global markets.The objective of technological progress and substitution thoroughly penetrates Made in China 2025. On an abstract level, the plan stresses the need to ''strive to control essential core technology, improve industrial supply chains and build independent development capacities in ba-sic, strategic and comprehensive areas related to the national economy and industrial security''. Words like ''indigenous innovations'' (自ä¸>>å›æ–°) and ''self-sufficiency'' (自ä¸>>ä'éš') are omnipresent in the document. The plan states the need to develop and use indigenous products in fields such as computer-aided design tools, industrial platform software, smart manufacturing technology and electric vehicles.9The main document of Made in China 2025 contains few concrete targets for Chinese prod-ucts. One specific goal is, for example, to increase the domestic market share of Chinese suppliers for ''basic core components and important basic materials'' to 70 per cent. Several supplementary semi-official documents including the ''Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap'', how-ever, propose specific targets for the market share of home-grown technologies (Figure 6).10The MIIT insists that Made in China 2025 will not adopt a new system of local content. It states that the ''Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap'' containing many of these targets is a scientific document, produced by 48 academics of the Chinese Academy of Engi-neering and over 400 experts, and has no policy implications. However, Vice-Premier Ma Kai has officially endorsed the document, illustrating the political weight of the roadmap. To avoid an open violation of WTO obligations, it appears that the responsible ministries and state-owned policy institutes use internal or semi-official documents to communicate local content targets to Chinese enterprises in industries such as aviation and electric vehicles.11 The Chinese government could so far not eliminate concerns of foreign governments and enterpris-THE ROLE OF INTERNET PLUS FOR SMART MANUFACTURINGThe Chinese government is seeking to integrate Made in China 2025 with China's digital agenda, the Internet Plus plan. Inter-net Plus is a full-blown plan to digitise the economy and society beyond the tradition-al internet. It seeks to create new informa-tion technology solutions in areas such as health, finance, education and transport, referring tangentially to issues of smart manufacturing. The technologies which Internet Plus is intended to promote will be relevant for industrial production as well. These comprise cloud computing, big data, the internet of things and e-commerce. De-spite this overlap with Internet Plus, Made in China 2025 is the main strategy for developing smart manufacturing in China. In contrast to the top-down approach of Made in China 2025, Internet Plus is based on bottom-up initiatives by internet enter-prises. Ma Huateng, CEO of the internet gi-ant Tencent, formulated the ''Internet Plus'' concept in 2014, and Li Keqiang picked up the term in his government report in 2015. Internet enterprises are closely involved in drafting implementation guidelines for the Internet Plus strategy.8 At the central gov-ernment level, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is respon-sible for implementing the strategy.Words like ''indigenous innovations'' and ''self-suf-ficiency'' are omnipresent in Made in China 2025.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 21Chapter 2es that China is building an informal system of local content targets. A letter from the German ambassador in China to MIIT minister Miao Wei inquiring about localisation targets for electric vehicles remained unanswered so far.12In China's general industrial policy, the localisation targets are implemented using broad and diverse measures. The government subsidises Chinese products while excluding foreign alterna-tives, for example, in the fields of electric vehicles and '' to a certain extent '' robotics. The gov-ernment also supports Chinese enterprises with direct capital injections and preferential loans in many industries such as steel and machinery. National investment funds such as the National In-tegrated Circuit Investment Fund (National IC Fund) in the semiconductor industry directly invest in enterprises. In other cases, the state closes the public procurement market to foreign enterpris-es, for example in information technology. In the past, the government has also set local content requirements as conditions for carrying out public projects, for example in the wind industry.Source: Expert Commission for the Construction of a Manufacturing Superpower(C) MERICS Made in China 2025 aims at substitutionSemi-official targets for the domestic market share of Chinese products (in per cent)High performance medical devicesLarge tractors above 200 hp and harvesters New and renewable energy equipmentNew energy vehiclesHigh-tech ship componentsWide-body aircraftsIndustrial robotsMobile phone chips 2020 2025 100Figure 60 10 2030405060708090MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 22 | 3. Strengths and limitations of Made in China 2025KEY FINDINGS Major strengths of the policy initia-tive include its mobilisation capacity, long-term planning, generous funding, local experimentation and strong local initiatives. Weaknesses include the mismatch between political priorities and indus-try needs, the fixation on quantitative targets, inefficient allocation of funding and overspending by local governments. Contextual factors, most important-ly the overall downward pressure on China's economy, the possible effects of upgrading on the labour market and the shortage of skilled labour, will diminish the effectiveness of the policy. The policy will not lead to wide-ranging industrial upgrading nor will it create a broad-based industry of tech suppliers within the next decade. But the initiative will succeed in building a small, highly competitive group of manufacturers and tech suppliers of smart manufacturing, significantly enhancing China's economic compet-itiveness in domestic and global high technology markets.The great vision for China's industrial future looks impressive on paper. Made in China 2025 appears to be a smart and comprehensive plan to promote technological progress in manufac-turing. The political programme, however, will still have to prove whether it can be effective in practice. Made in China 2025 is a broad and general framework that needs further specification. The implementation is just beginning. Careful analysis of upcoming implementation documents and industry-specific five-year plans is necessary to further evaluate the direction and outcomes of government policy (Figure 7; a list of the policies can also be found in the annex). The exam-ination of implementation steps taken since 2015 allows for predictions of likely outcomes and impacts. China has very powerful policy instruments at its disposal that create a significant and im-mediate dynamic on the ground. Yet policy strengths go hand in hand with inherent weaknesses that hinder successful implementation. This chapter will show that, on balance, China is likely to miss some of its goals but achieve others: it will almost certainly fail to catalyse a broad, econ-omy-wide industrial upgrading of Chinese manufacturers within the next decade and it will also be unsuccessful in building a broad-based, highly competitive industry of tech suppliers for smart manufacturing within the given timeframe. China is more than likely to succeed in creating a small, powerful group of national champi-ons among manufacturers and tech suppliers. These champions will play a dominant role in their respective domestic markets and will grow into formidable international competitors.3.1 POWERFUL INSTRUMENTS FOR IMPLEMENTATIONMassive mobilisation capacityOn the positive side, the mobilisation capacity of China's policy campaign is substantial. The par-ticular strength of top-down policies is that they attract widespread attention throughout the country in a short time. After Made in China 2025 was released in 2015, discussion on smart man-ufacturing spread in China's industry and the wider public. Industry 4.0 and smart manufacturing rapidly turned into popular buzzwords for describing China's path to technological modernisation. The number of scientific and expert articles mentioning ''Industry 4.0'' increased fivefold between 2014 and 2015.13China will fail to catalyse a broad industrial upgrading within the next decade.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 23Forward-looking strategic planningLong-term planning is a strong point of China's top-level design. Chinese leaders are appointed for two five-year terms and are less exposed to the pressures of public opinion than leaders in liberal democracies. This enables them, in times of smooth economic growth, to pay less attention to short-term pressures and concentrate on long-term goals. The long-term vision of Made in China 2025 for a ''Manufacturing Superpower'' allows the government to initiate today the necessary measures and work on the roadmap for industrial modernisation step by step.Large state fundingFurther advantages of Chinese industrial policy include large government funds and subsidies and the ability to channel them into priority areas. The recently established Advanced Manufacturing Fund (国家å…è›å¶é 产业投èµåŸºé‡‘) is a 20 billion CNY (2.7 billion EUR) fund, although the ex-act funding period remains unclear.14 In comparison, the German government has so far provided about 200 million EUR for research and innovation for Industry 4.0 technologies.15In the same month that Made in China 2025 was released, the state-owned State Develop-ment and Investment Corporation set up a company with limited partnership to manage the Ad-vanced Manufacturing Fund (the SDIC Advanced Manufacturing Investment Fund (Limited Part-nership)) (国投å…è›å¶é 产业投èµåŸºé‡‘¼æ'‰éåä¼¼‰). The central government paid 6 billion CNY directly into the fund, while the state-owned State Development and Investment Corporation and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China contributed 4 billion CNY and 5 billion CNY respective-ly. Some provinces also contribute to the Advanced Manufacturing fund. It has already started to make investments: for instance, purchasing shares in the battery and electric vehicle maker BYD worth 1.5 billion CNY and investing in a joint venture by several Shanghai robot makers.16In addition, other government funds have also provided substantial sums for the develop-ment of smart manufacturing technologies. Among them are the National IC Fund (国家集æç--µè·¯äº§ä¸šæŠ•èµåŸºé‡‘) and the Emerging Industries Investment Fund (国家新兴产业å›ä¸šæŠ•èµå¼•å¯¼åŸºé‡‘ ) with capital of 139 billion CNY (19 billion EUR) and 40 billion CNY (5.4 billion EUR) respectively at their disposal.Long-term planning is a strong point of China's top-level design.Chapter 3Source: MERICS research(C) MERICS China pushes industrial upgradingKey decisions for the implementation of Made in China 2025 regarding smart manufacturing20122013201420152016Expert and project level MinisteriallevelLeadershiplevelOpinions on Cloud ComputingPosition paper on digitising the industry Industrial Robots Development PlanPlan for 3D-printingSmart Manufacturing Demonstration Projects Made in China 2025 Technology RoadmapStandardisation FrameworkSmart Manufacturing Demonstration Projects Guideline for Service-Oriented ManufacturingDevelopment Plan for the Robotics Industry12th Five-Year Plan for Smart ManufacturingPlan on Building National ChampionsOpinions on Manufacturing Innovation CentresInternet PlusMade in China 2025Figure 7MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 24 | Policy innovation through experimentationChina has demonstrated through its industrial policy that it is very good at experimenting with new business models and new technologies. The central government often tests new approach-es through pilot projects. These projects later serve as models for the nationwide roll-out of new technologies. In 2015 and 2016, the MIIT initiated more than 200 projects for smart manufactur-ing at enterprise level. In addition, the MIIT is establishing manufacturing innovation centres and pilot cities for Made in China 2025, such as the coastal city of Ningbo and several cities in the Pearl River Delta.17 The demonstration projects focus, for example, on the implementation or in-tegration of complex Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Manufacturing Execution Systems and Customer Relationship Management (CRM); on the use of RFID in components and material flows; the deep penetration of production with real-time monitoring; or cloud platforms for customer and supply chain management.Rush of local governments to emerging industriesThe rush of local administrations to support smart manufacturing accelerates and amplifies Made in China 2025: the central government campaign caused enthusiasm for smart manufacturing among local governments and greatly enhanced the impetus of previous local efforts. Local gov-ernments hasten to build China's new leading industrial basis for emerging technologies, which promises large economic benefits and support from the central government. In their pursuit to outperform their local rivals, local cadres mobilise massive financial resources and often exceed national targets by a considerable margin. Whereas the central government defines the policy priorities, it is the local governments that actually determine the pace and direction of smart manufacturing growth. The intense push from local activities is especially visible in robotics. Local governments have opened or are planning to open nearly 40 parks for the development of the robotics in-dustry (Figure 8). By October 2016, at least 70 provinces, cities and county-level administrations had released local Made in China 2025 strategies with specific local priorities. MERICS identified concrete robotics subsidy pledges in 21 cities and 5 provinces for promoting industrial robotics at a total value of nearly 40 billion CNY. These local subsidies will contribute more to the usage of industrial robots than central government spending because they are twice as large as the new national Advanced Manufacturing Fund.18It is the local governments that determine the pace of smart manufacturing growth.Chapter 3MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 25Chapter 3Figure 8Source: MERICS research, MIIT(C) MERICS The ''robot craze'' of China's local governmentsChina's new local robot industrial parks risk to create overcapacitiesTargets for industrial output of local robot hubs (in billion CNY) until 2020 0 '' 25 no data 25 '' 50 50 '' 75 over 75More robots than neededLocal targets for robot industry exceeds actual demand (in billion CNY) until 2020HarbinZhangjiagang Shenfu New TownShenyangDalianTangshanXiangheTianjinCangzhouChangzhouHefei XuzhouWeifangLuoyangBaojiChengdu Chongqing ChangshaJiujiangJinjiangLishuiHangzhouShanghaiKunshanShenzhenZhuhaiZhongshanShundeGuangzhouDongguanWuhanQingdaoWuhuNanjing0100 200 300 400 500 600 700Accumulated targets of local governments for the robot industry Estimated size of China's robot marketMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 26 | Chapter 33.2 THE STRENGTHS COME WITH INHERENT WEAKNESSESThe forcefulness of the industrial policy campaign is impressive. However, the top-down approach comes at a cost because its strengths come with built-in weaknesses.Catch-all approach misses specific enterprise demandsThe enormous mobilisation capacity leads to an over-ambitious catch-all approach that does not meet the specific needs of enterprises. The campaign-style policy of Made in China 2025 disre-gards the role of a developed entrepreneurial environment and management practices in realising smart manufacturing. The government imposes the priority of smart manufacturing on enter-prises without considering their actual circumstances. Many barely automated enterprises are unprepared for using advanced technologies. Focusing on the most advanced technologies while disregarding the need to upgrade to basic automation and digitisation technology will lead to dis-appointing or even harmful results. For example, enterprises with rather simple software systems and non-computerised automation can hardly be expected to deal with software integration and intelligent machines.Blind spot: management and gradual changeChina's industrial policy underestimates the role of enterprise organisation and gradual improve-ment of production processes as ways to realise smart manufacturing. The government tends to see industrial upgrading as a purely technical task of installing new equipment. The reason for this approach is simple: focusing on technology delivers fast, impressive and quantifiable results '' such as rising demand for robots. However, this fixation on hardware neglects the fact that progress in industrial produc-tion is to a large degree a matter of organising management and manufacturing process-es. Key to industrial upgrading are the optimisation of industrial processes through continuous improvement (Kaizen), the implementation of lean management and the role of expert consultants.Inefficient allocation of fundsThe provision of massive funds is often associated with the misallocation of public money. In China it's often not the most promising and efficient enterprises but those with the best contacts in the political system that receive funding. Smart manufacturing is no exception. A Southern Chinese electronics firm, for example, secured funding for a pilot project because it hired a former MIIT official.19 In the robotics industry there are also instances of rent-seeking on the part of en-terprises and the misappropriation of funds earmarked for innovation.20Duplication of effort by local governmentsThe enormous local enthusiasm for smart manufacturing also creates serious problems: Local government efforts are often uncoordinated and redundant; they risk duplicating projects, wast-ing money and outpacing demand. A run on a particular type of technology often leads to man-ufacturers producing only low-value solutions. The risks of a subsidy glut and overcapacities in smart manufacturing are highly imminent, similar to the existing problems in industries such as steel, coal and chemicals. Other sectors such as the photovoltaic and the wind industry have also demonstrated that local subsidy gluts and tax reliefs for companies often lead to overinvestment. Overcapacities cause a massive decline in prices and shrinking margins. Given the artificial incentive structure of state subsidy regimes, Chinese enterprises normally do not react to increased competitive pres-sure with more innovative activity. Instead, many enterprises concentrate on mass producing low-tech products. MIIT Vice-Minister Feng Fei said that ''the biggest worry in the implementation process of Made in China 2025 is that there could be another round of duplicate construction''.21 China's ro-botics industry is heading for overcapacity because local subsidies are extremely high and support measures uncoordinated. At first, this will only affect the Chinese market, especially the low-end segment. If Chinese robot makers become more active globally, this could also lead to an export of overcapacities to global markets.Local governments risk duplicating projects, wasting money and outpacing demand.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 27Chapter 33.3 ECONOMIC CHALLENGES IMPAIR POLICY EFFECTIVENESSApart from policy weaknesses, there are several contextual economic barriers and pressures that have negative consequences for policy activities and incentive structures for enterprises.Economic slowdown affects willingness to investThe current worsening of economic conditions will delay or hinder long-term planning for indus-trial upgrading. Due to the economic slowdown, the central government is likely to postpone the transition to an innovation economy as it responds to short-term economic challenges via tra-ditional methods of crisis management such as increasing infrastructure investment. Corporate debt and overcapacities decrease the willingness of enterprises to invest in new and advanced machinery and information technology. The purchase of equipment in general has already slowed markedly in 2016 (Figure 9). Demand growth for industrial robots significantly dampened in 2016 as the automotive industry, the largest user of robots, faced stagnating car sales and cut back orders for new robot units.22 As smart manufacturing increases productivity and capacities, up-grading might even increase overcapacities.Lack of skilled workersThe lack of talent makes it very difficult for many Chinese enterprises to install and use smart manufacturing technologies. Complex IT processes and computerised machines, such as cross-in-dustry technologies, require detailed expertise in various fields of automation, engineering and software. A shortage of skilled workers for smart manufacturing is an issue in many countries, but it is even more severe in China. Chinese enterprises perceive the skill shortage as one of the major problems for industrial upgrading for both simple automation and highly sophisticated IT-based processes.23 China's education system and the Chinese universities struggle to provide sufficient numbers of skilled experts for sophisticated tasks in the high-tech industry. 24 Impending lay-offs due to automationThe consequences of industrial upgrading for the labour market will further diminish the initial enthusiasm among political circles. The government is not well prepared for mass lay-offs due to industrial upgrading. Made in China 2025 has a clear blind spot here. The labour market is one of Figure 9(C) MERICS Chinese enterprises are less willing to purchase new equipmentGrowth of fixed-asset investment in equipment and construction (year on year change, in per cent)Source: National Bureau of Statistics0 51015 2025 30 35 40200820092010201120122013201420152016 Equipment purchase Construction and installationMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 28 | Chapter 3the biggest worries to the central government. The 50 million new jobs the government plans to create in urban areas until 2020 might not be sufficient to absorb new waves of migrants into the cities. The manufacturing industry has reached its limits for providing jobs, but new drivers of growth in the service sector have not yet realised their potential as a job machine.25 In the midst of an already tense employment situation, technological upgrading and further job losses will increase the danger of political instability and unrest. Large-scale dismissals, which are also (but not solely) related to automation, are already happening: Haier laid off 26,000 employees (18 per cent of its entire workforce) after it had heavily invested in digital factories.26The combination of inherent policy weaknesses and unfavourable overall economic condi-tions is likely to limit the effect of Made in China 2025. It remains to be seen if the decision makers are able to adapt their policy strategies to the challenges that lie ahead. As the next two chapters will show, it is exactly these policy strategies that will determine the success or failure of China's manufacturers and tech suppliers.The government is not well prepared for mass lay-offs due to industrial upgrading.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 294. Manufacturers: a small but growing group of challengers to industrial countriesEven if Made in China 2025 will not fully accomplish its objective of achieving the widespread application of smart manufacturing in the next decade, the plan will develop an enormous impact that will be felt not only in China but throughout the global economy. Industrial countries should have no illusions: Made in China 2025 will elevate a small but powerful group of Chinese manu-facturers, dramatically increasing their competitiveness.The central issue is to what degree gov-ernment policies will mobilise manufactur-ers to modernise their processes. The smart manufacturing boom that is beginning in Chi-na will be very unequally distributed among enterprises in China. This chapter differenti-ates between three distinct groups of Chi-nese manufacturers (Table 2). The biggest and most immediate chal-lenge to advanced economies and their man-ufacturers will come from a small group of frontrunners. The frontrunners are the few enterprises that are developing advanced manufacturing out of a strong business in-terest. They are in the best position to use the political support of Made in China 2025 to their advantage. The latecomers, the largest group, will hardly gain anything from the policy campaign no matter how effectively it is implemented. They simply do not possess the technological prerequi-sites or the business incentives to expand into advanced manufacturing any time soon. The hopefuls, the third group, are decisive for China's future competitiveness. The frontrun-ners are the challengers of today, the hopefuls could be the challengers of tomorrow. But they will need to be activated through policy. Their development is the most uncertain of the three groups and most strongly depends on the successful implementation of Made in China 2025.KEY FINDINGS Made in China 2025 will have different effects on different enterprises: China will have frontrunners, hopefuls and latecomers in the use of smart manufac-turing. A small number of frontrunners will soon become highly competitive on the world market. The frontrunners upgrade their pro-cesses out of their interest, but policy is important in accelerating their efforts. The policy will have the biggest impact on the hopefuls. This group of enter-prises operates at a less advanced level but will move to upgrade production to the next level if provided with the right incentives. The hopefuls' success or failure will de-pend on effective policy implementation. The development of the group of hopefuls will determine China's compet-itiveness in smart manufacturing in the medium term.Manufacturers use smart manufac-turing to improve their production and management processes. Some of these companies are hybrids: they manufac-ture their own products and, in addition, supply smart manufacturing products and services to other enterprises. MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 30 | Chapter 44.1 FRONTRUNNERS COMBINE BUSINESS INTEREST WITH POLICY SUPPORTThe frontrunners are a small group of China's most advanced users of smart manufacturing. They established very solid foundations using Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines, ERP, MES, industrial robots and similar technologies. They are already running research, development and demonstration for the application of Industry 4.0 technology, for example RFID, wireless sensor networks and virtual reality. The frontrunners will soon close the gap to the most advanced inter-national level of production technology in their respective industries. The frontrunners can be found across industrial sectors. They include private as well as state-owned enterprises (Table 3). Similar to other countries, the automotive, electronics and metals industries have a high penetration of MES, ERP and industrial robots. For others, such as paper making and garment production, smart manufacturing is less prevalent. However, when compared to car production in industrial countries or by OEMs in China, the production of Chinese carmakers is very backward. In contrast, industries such as electronics have achieved an interna-tionally quite advanced level. Examples of frontrunners include manufacturers of consumer electronics and home appli-ances such as Haier and Hisense, and increasingly Midea and Gree. The construction machine manufacturers Sany and Zoomlion also have advanced production processes. The automotive and steel industries are relatively backward compared to foreign factories. However, the carmaker SAIC, car component supplier Weichai and steelmaker Baosteel are rising as active users of cut-ting-edge technology.Business initiative is key to industrial upgradingKey to the success of the frontrunners is their enterprise-led initiative. This differs from most other Chinese enterprises. The frontrunners upgraded to advanced manufacturing to increase profitability, ahead of government incentive programmes. Sany, for instance, began its ''Digital Factory'' programme in 2009.(C) MERICS China's smart manufacturing develops at different speedsCharacteristics of frontrunners, hopefuls and latecomersTable 2Frontrunners HopefulsLatecomersCurrent level Highly automated and digitised (Industry 3.0) Progressing towards high automation and digitisation (from Industry 2.0 to Industry 3.0)Manual labour and basic automation (Industry 1.0 and 2.0)Importance of business interest for progress HighLow, potentially increas-ingLowImportance of policy for progress MediumHighLowProspects for the next ten years Enormous benefits from using advanced technology (Industry 4.0) Potentially consolidating automation and digitisation (Industry 3.0) and testing out advanced technology (Industry 4.0)Mainly remaining at the level of manual labour and basic automationMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 31Chapter 4Many frontrunners are deeply integrated in world markets and are exposed to real and open com-petition. This creates powerful incentives to increase productivity through the use of smart man-ufacturing. The frontrunners understand new production technology as fundamental to expand-ing or consolidating international market activities and shares. Their managers are convinced that success in overseas markets, as suppliers or OEMs, is only possible if they can achieve a high level of productivity, quality and customisation, and if they are able to project the image of a modern enterprise. The central government now sees them as successful models and provides financial support. The frontrunners could succeed without policy support, but Made in China 2025 \1is an important catalyst for their progress. All frontrunners have been awarded national pilot projects for smart manufacturing.Smart manufacturing boosts international presenceThe upgrading efforts enormously increase the production capabilities of the frontrunners. Smart manufacturing enables them to make higher quality products more quickly, cheaply and flexibly. Within China, the frontrunners are the only enterprises that are in a position to reap immediate benefits from the use of Industry 4.0. For instance, 15 particularly successful national pilot pro-jects reduced operative costs by 20 per cent and the product development cycle by more than 30 per cent, according to an MIIT survey. The projects were able to increase productivity by nearly 30 per cent and decrease the amount of deficient products by 20 per cent.27These benefits of smart manufacturing strengthen the frontrunners' international pres-ence. For example, Haier more than doubled its operational revenue on non-Chinese markets from about 8 billion CNY to more than 18 billion CNY between 2012 and 2015, after it released its ''internet factory'' programme in 2012.28 Smart manufacturing is a necessary but insufficient condition for reaching a significant global presence. Product innovation and branding are equally important. Haier performed well in these categories. Several frontrunners, on the other hand, will have difficulties globally in spite of modern production methods, as their design and marketing capacities lag behind.Policy weaknesses will not affect the frontrunnersThe frontrunners will be the least affected by the weaknesses of the political strategy. The high ambitions of the campaign match their advanced status. Since they have a strong business case for smart manufacturing they are less likely to be affected by the pitfalls of Made in China 2025 discussed in Chapter 3. They are also in a better postition to overcome skill shortages by estab-lishing internal research and training centres and making use of external consulting. While ineffi-cient policy will have less impact on the frontrunners, these companies are still vulnerable to the consequences of an economic downturn. Corporate losses and overcapacities could delay their investment in equipment and slow down their business in the short term. However, economic turbulence could also provide an opportunity for the frontrunners as their modernised production lines would give them an edge over their domestic rivals..The benefits of smart man-ufacturing strengthen the frontrunners' international presence.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 32 | Chapter 4(C) MERICS Leaders in smart manufacturingExamples and effects of industrial upgrading in frontrunner enterprises Source: Based on enterprise publicationsTable 3HaierIndustry: Electronics2.7 % of revenue spent on R&D21 % of revenue earned abroadSmart factories in' Shenyang (refrigerators)' Foshan (washing machines)' Zhengzhou (air conditioners)' Qingdao (water heaters)Key Projects2012: ''Internet factory'' strategy' Platform for product customisation and supply chain management' Research centre for smart manufacturing' Participation in national pilot projectsEffectsResult of upgrading at Shenyang refrigerator factory:' Order-delivery time down from fifteen to seven days' Productivity doubledSanyIndustry: Machinery5.1 % of revenue spent on R&D44 % of revenue earned abroadSmart factories in' Changsha Ningxiang (mobile cranes)' Changsha No. 18 (trucks)' Beijing (pile drivers)' Shanghai Lingang (excavators)Key Projects2007: First investment in robots2009: ''Digital factory'' project' Acquired German machine maker Putzmeister' Platform for smart services of construction machines' Participation in national pilot projectsEffectsResults of upgrading at Changsha truck factory:' Productivity +24%' Material storage -30%WeichaiIndustry: Automotive4.4 % of revenue spent on R&D55 % of revenue earned abroadSmart factory in' Weifang (No. 1)Key Projects' Acquired 70 % share of German hydraulics firm Linde Hydraulics (former Kion)' Smart manufacturing project with China Telecom' Participation in national pilot projectsShanghai ElectricIndustry: Energy Equipment3.2 % of revenue spent on R&D11 % of revenue earned abroadSmart factory in' Shanghai Highly Lingang (compressors for air conditioners)Key Projects2007: First investment in robots' Acquired two German automation firms' Participation in national pilot projectsEffectsResult of upgrading at Shanghai compressor factory:' Robot density of 461 per 10,000 employees in a labour-intensive industry' Production per employee rose from 295 to 1131 compressorsMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 33Chapter 44.2 HOPEFULS: WINNING OR LOSING?The hopefuls play a decisive role for China's international competitiveness. Effective industri-al policy is most critical for this group. If the policy succeeds, it will enable these companies to challenge the global market position of multinational corporations in the medium term. If many of the Chinese hopefuls effectively use smart manufacturing to expand internationally, China's economic strength will grow quickly. A large proportion of the hopefuls are not yet influential on international markets and their rise might surprise established market players.As of today, the hopefuls are not yet close to achieving the most advanced level of produc-tion. For the most part, this relatively large group is in the midst of upgrading from basic automa-tion and electrification (Industry 2.0) to numerical control and software-based production (Indus-try 3.0). The greater the effectiveness of Made in China 2025, the bigger the group of hopefuls to effectively use Industry 4.0 in the medium term. The hopefuls are a large heterogeneous group, including large state-owned and private en-terprises as well as many small and medium enterprises. Examples for hopefuls are the state-owned aircraft and defence corporation Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), as well as the TV maker Changchong, energy equipment producers such as Shaangu and the ship maker Nantong COSCO KHI Ship Engineering. Many hopefuls take part in the pilot projects launched by the MIIT and local governments (Table 4).Policy is the main trigger of industrial upgradingUnlike the frontrunners, the hopefuls rely on the top-down approach of Made in China 2025. For them the policy campaign is the main driver for their upgrading activities towards smart man-ufacturing. Their business interest is currently too weak to lead to comprehensive investment in cutting-edge automation and digitisation technology without policy support. But the nation-al pilot projects are an important trigger and provide substantial support for testing advanced technology and improving efficiency. Senior managers of large state-owned enterprises respond (C) MERICS Political support for hopefulsSelect national demonstration projects for the application of smart manufacturing supported by the MIIT in 2015Source: MIIT 2015 Table 4AviationAVIC (Changhe)AVIC (Liyuan)AVIC (Xi'an Aircraft Industry)CASICAutomotiveChang'anChemistry and PetroleumSailunSinopecClothingMeikeRedcollarEnergy EquipmentShaanguTBEAMetals and MaterialsAngangChina United Cement CorporationChinalcoJanus Precision ComponentsJinjiangKocelSinoma (Taishan Fiberglass)ElectronicsChanghong (Hefei)Changhong (Sichuan)Shenzhen RapooSkyworthYangtze Optical Fibre and CableFood, Beverage and MedicineKanionPolypharmShandong CompanionSinofertYiliShipbuildingNantong COSCO KHI Ship EngineeringMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 34 | Chapter 4particularly well to the policy priorities of Made in China 2025 in order to meet political targets and advance their own careers. The big push towards smart manufacturing is especially visible in the aviation industry (Table 5). State-owned aircraft makers have considerably increased their activities in this area in 2015 and 2016. AVIC, for instance, developed a comprehensive plan for smart manufacturing parallel to the release of Made in China 2025. The company started as many as four pilot projects under the national programme including one in the city of Xi'an.(C) MERICS Still a long way to go for Industry 3.0 and Industry 4.0Qualitative assessment of the development status of industrial production in the Chinese aircraft manufacturing industry based on study by AVIC engineersSource: AVIC, MERICSTable 5Industrial paradigmsTechnologies and methodsLevel of implementation in productionIndustry 2.0 Electrification and professionalism ' Use of electric devices' Division of labour Very HighIndustry 3.0 Automation' Processing and assembly ' Data collection ' Logistics HighLean management ' Industrial processes ' Just-in-time production' Value analysis' Six sigma MediumFlexibility' Production modules' Production lines' Costumer orientation ' Organisation and management MediumIndustry 4.0 Digitisation ' Production' Product real-time monitoring' Integration/interoperability of virtual and physical data MediumNetworking' Enterprise management' Design processes ' Manufacturing' Logistics ' Product services LowSmart application' Products' Businesses' Design decisions' Manufacturing decisions' Production modules ' Production system LowMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 35Chapter 4Success depends on efficient policy implementationFor the hopefuls, the success or failure of the policy initiative will have the biggest impact. These companies are at a decisive point in time: Good policy implementation can turn them into front-runners of smart manufacturing in the medium term. But bad policy implementation may lead them down the wrong path and eventually discourage them from using smart manufacturing technology effectively. As local governments mobilise the most funding, the effectiveness of var-ious local policies will play a critical role. Local governments in wealthy coastal areas are especially vehement promoters: coastal provinces in the east and the south use about half of all the indus-trial robots in China.29 Guangdong alone now accounts for 15 per cent of China's installed robot stock.30The long-term challenge for policy makers is not only to provide incentives to the hopefuls to modernise their production processes but also to make them understand that upgrading their facilities is in their own best interest. Industrial policy can help these enterprises to get out of the starting blocks but eventually the firms have to discover for themselves that investing in modern facilities can increase productivity and reduce costs. For instance, a supplier might realise that investment in automation technology helps to fulfill quality requirements set by international OEMs. The high quality standards set by international smartphone companies are a case in point: They have already led to a highly automated supply chain for smartphone parts in China. Policy weaknesses create many pitfallsIdentifying such business interests will be especially difficult for state-owned enterprises. The ambitions of Made in China 2025 to rapidly reach the most advanced level of production technol-ogy run the risk of leading to projects that look impressive but fail to address the challenges faced by companies that lack the necessary prerequisites. For instance, Changhe, a subsidiary of AVIC, has built a futuristic factory that is too advanced to match the current level of the company's production technology. Sany CEO Tan Xiuguo once said, ''even if they [the Europeans] sell us their technology, it is not for granted that Chinese enterprises can actually use them''.31If the strategy's weaknesses are not addressed, many hopefuls will not see the policy's ben-efits: should their pilot projects run into difficulties, these companies lose their willingness to invest in modern production lines without further government support. The top-down approach can thus deter companies from upgrading to smart manufacturing technologies. For example, some enterprises have already de-installed industrial robots when it turned out that the new equipment was either too costly or too complicated for them to operate. Similarly, introducing new industrial software is a lengthy, time-consuming process that requires intensive training of employees.324.3 LATECOMERS: LOSING OUT IN THE YEARS AHEADThe latecomers have made the least progress in upgrading, having installed only basic electrified and automated devices at most. This is the largest part of Chinese industry, including especially small and medium private enterprises, but also larger private and many state-owned companies. They will not make significant progress towards smart manufacturing in the next five years. The latecomers lack the incentives to upgrade industrial production. The employment of cheap labour and the massive production of low-cost products still serves as a successful busi-ness model. However, even as the pressure to automate and digitise production increases, there are several barriers to upgrading. The old generation of management, which has been in place since the 1980s, pays little attention to the quality of equipment and is not convinced of the benefits of upgrading. Limited funds and low profit margins make the latecomers very reluctant to spend money on equipment that does not guarantee a return on investment within one or two years. Instead of investing in their own facilities, many entrepreneurs prefer to invest in the booming real estate market as this promises higher profits. In contrast to the hopefuls, the latecomers do not feel encouraged by China's industrial policy to upgrade to smart manufacturing technologies. While Made in China 2025 has set in motion As local governments mobilise the most funding, the effective-ness of various local policies will play a critical role.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 36 | Chapter 4extensive funding efforts, the programme fails to reach a large part of Chinese industry: most latecomers receive only marginal support or none at all.In the years to come, these companies are likely to experience diminishing influence on do-mestic and international markets. They cannot compete with enterprises from industrial coun-tries. As soon as wages rise substantially in China, they will also become weaker in comparison to enterprises in developing countries. Many of them will survive by continuing to focus on low value and low quality products, which are still in high demand in China. Other industrial areas that require no or limited automation will also continue as before '' the decision not to upgrade to smart man-ufacturing will not have any negative consequences for these companies. China's industry will develop at different speeds: on the one hand, there are the latecomers that are trailing behind in industrial modernisation, on the other hand there is the small but grow-ing number of frontrunners and successful hopefuls. This second group of manufacturers will come to the fore, compete in international high-tech markets and change the structure of these markets. Meanwhile, the Chinese government hopes that it can create a similar trajectory for sup-pliers of smart manufacturing technology '' as the next chapter will show.China's industry will continue to develop at dif-ferent speeds.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 375. Chinese tech suppliers: lagging behind but risingInternational suppliers of smart manufactur-ing technologies are currently in a gold-rush mood in China. China's industry has a huge demand for high-end machine tools, smart sensors and other technology. However, the less-advanced Chinese suppliers are unable to provide the technologies for this sudden boom in a short time. For the time being, China depends on foreign supply to push its smart manufacturing revolution forward. Yet some of the Chinese tech suppliers are already well out of the starting blocks. They will become competitive in individual segments of the Chinese market much faster than the status quo would suggest. Subsequently, the gold rush for foreign suppliers will end sooner than expected. Three pertinent case studies at the end of this chapter will illustrate these insights with regard to industrial robots, 3D printing and industrial software.5.1 STATUS-QUO: DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN TECHNOLOGYChinese tech suppliers for manufacturing are basically well suited for the Chinese market: their focuses and strengths are low-tech and low-price products. The functionality of Chinese indus-trial software is, for instance, not as broad or complex as comparable foreign software solutions. This fits well with the needs of Chinese small and medium enterprises, who cannot afford the expensive international products and are satisfied with simple software. Furthermore, Chinese tech suppliers have an in-depth understanding of the specific needs of Chinese consumers and develop solutions adapted specifically for the Chinese market. However, China's suppliers do not possess the technological abilities to realise the ambi-tions of Made in China 2025 to catapult industry into the age of smart manufacturing in very KEY FINDINGS Several Chinese tech suppliers will be propelled forward by China's smart manufacturing initiative. They will bridge the technology gap and become serious domestic and international competitors in fields such as robotics, industrial software and 3D printing. The pace and degree to which Chinese tech suppliers will become competitive depends largely on the effectiveness of the initiated policy activities. A significant technology gap still exists. Accordingly, foreign suppliers currently greatly benefit from China's smart man- ufacturing boom. However, they need to be prepared to see their market op-portunities and shares dwindle swiftly within the next ten years. The pace of technological catch-up and intensifying competition varies markedly by technology. The competitiveness of Chinese companies will develop more rapidly in some areas than in others. The Chinese ambitions will lead to an increase of technology-seeking FDI and knowledge acquisitions. Chinese enterprises, spurred by political targets, support and incentives, will seek to accelerate their technological catch-up through strategic technology invest-ments abroad. Tech suppliers are enterprises that pro-vide technologies and services neces-sary for realising automation, digitisa-tion and smart manufacturing. These technologies include, for instance, CNC machines, industrial software, (smart) sensors, industrial robots and RFID. The Chinese definition of smart manufactur-ing also encompasses 3D printing and industrial e-commerce.China depends on foreign supply to push its smart manufacturing revolution forward.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 38 | Chapter 5short time. China has no choice but to rely on foreign technology to upgrade its industry. The technological gap between foreign and Chinese suppliers is vast. In many cases, there is no seri-ous Chinese alternative to foreign advanced production technology in high-end sectors. Even if Chinese enterprises do offer products in these sectors, they have to rely largely on foreign core components. The market shares of Chinese suppliers of smart manufacturing technologies are at a low level (see case studies below).5.2 POLITICAL GOALS AND INSTRUMENTS: MAKING CHINESE TECH SUPPLIERS DOM-INANT IN CHINAThe Chinese government aims to close the technology gap between Chinese and foreign suppliers and to substitute foreign with Chinese technology by 2025. The government puts all necessary political and financial resources into making Chinese tech suppliers dominant in politically selected industries like robots and high-end machine tools. The envisioned market shares for Chinese prod-ucts and brands in the ''Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap'' demonstrate the am-bitious political goal of reducing the market share of international technology suppliers (Figure 10). The implementation of Made in China 2025 will largely determine the pace and degree to which Chinese tech suppliers can become competitive. The same logic applies to manufacturers using smart manufacturing technologies in China. Over the coming years until 2025, China's policy makers will increasingly intervene in the market to achieve these goals. The Chinese government will use the whole array of innovation and industrial policy instruments mentioned in chapter 3 to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese suppliers in politically selected industries.R&D fundingThe Chinese leadership channels substantial funds into the research and development of smart manufacturing.33 The state research and development (R&D) activities focus especially on im-mature technologies that still await large-scale commercialisation. For instance, between 2014 and 2016, the Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) launched 51 basic and applied science projects for 3D printing, 41 for cloud computing and big data, 5 for sensors and 16 for robotics. Because of the special importance of robotics, the Chinese government also uses industrial policy instruments such as subsidies to robot makers and buyers to promote technological development.Source: Expert Commission for the Construction of a Manufacturing Superpower(C) MERICS Made in China 2025: replacing foreign smart manufacturing technologyGoals for the domestic market share of various Chinese smart manufacturing products (in per cent) Figure 10Industrial softwareIT for smart manufacturingCloud & big dataRobotsRobot core componentsHigh-end CNC machines and manufacturing equipment 2020 2025 2030 1000 10 2030405060708090MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 39Chapter 5Capital injections for Chinese companiesThe national and local governments nurture tech suppliers with generous state support. This includes, for instance, tax rebates for high-tech enterprises and for software developers.34 There are also huge direct capital injections from government funds and innovation parks. The reported subsidies to tech suppliers can make up a significant share of their operational revenue: 1 to 6 per cent for some software developers (Figure 11). Measured in relation to their revenue, the subsidies for many tech suppliers have increased in recent years.The considerable government aid is intended to build a strong Chinese smart manufacturing in-dustry. This creates fast developing, dynamic markets with many new players. However, the gen-erous subsidies and corresponding market distortions are also likely to create significant problems for the development of tech suppliers. As demonstrated in chapter 3, the campaign-style policy and massive central and local government funding run the risk of causing misallocation, overca-pacities and a supply surplus.Discrimination against foreign enterprisesIndustrial policy in China often entails measures to discriminate against foreign enterprises. The national and local governments restrict access to public procurement and limit the possibility of inbound foreign-direct investment. For instance, the official classification of ''secure and control-lable'' ICT products keeps foreign products out of many areas. These measures are not yet as pronounced in smart manufacturing as Chinese tech suppliers are still too backward to benefit from national protectionism. However, it is very likely that the Chinese government will intensify measures to protect Chinese suppliers from foreign competition in these technology areas as soon as Chinese enterprises have a real chance to challenge the market dominance of foreign tech suppliers (see chapter 6).(C) MERICS China's tech suppliers receive generous subsidiesSize of reported government subsidies as percentage of total operational revenue in selected enterprises for robotics, industrial software and digitised machine tools Source: MERICS calculation based on various enterprise reportsFigure 11 2015 20140 510 1520 2530 35SiasunEstunWuhan Huazhong Shukong KunmingKingdeeInspurYonyou Digiwin ShenyangBoshiZhiyun AutomationRobot makers Software developersMachine tool makersMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 40 | Chapter 55.3 FAST TECHNOLOGICAL CATCH-UPGovernment support through Made in China 2025 and previous policy initiatives has delivered the first visible results. Patenting activity (including patents, industrial designs and utility mod-els) shows that China will contribute important innovations in the most advanced technologies for smart manufacturing in the coming years. The number of Chinese patents for Industry 4.0 related technologies has grown very rapidly since 2006 (Figure 12). Patent applications in China surpassed those in the U.S. in 2011.Chinese innovation activities are particularly strong in technology fields with high political support: traditional industrial robots, wireless sensor networks and smart sensors. In contrast, Chinese innovation activities are weaker in cloud computing and big data, advanced robots and information security (Figure 13).(C) MERICS Increasing innovation in Industry 4.0 in ChinaPatent families (priority applications) for Industry 4.0 technologies at national patent offices (2006-2016)Source: Fraunhofer IAO35(C) MERICS China's innovation in Industry 4.0 focuses on robots, industrial communication and sensorsNational patent families (priority applications) by technology (process and use patents not included)Source: Fraunhofer IAOFigure 12Figure 130200 400 600 8001,0001,200200620072008200920102011 201320142012 2015 China United States Germany China United States GermanyAdvanced robotsCloud & big dataInformation securitySmart sensors & embedded systems Wireless sensor networksTraditional industrial robots0200 400600 1,0001,200800MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 41Chapter 5The area in which China has the largest innovation potential is the development of use cases for smart manufacturing. Chinese enterprises are very creative about identifying business cases and deploying new technological innovations. The patent data clearly reflects this ability: patent ap-plications for use cases account for nearly half of Chinese patent applications, compared to only roughly 20 per cent in the United States and Germany.Chinese patent data for Industry 4.0 seems impressive. However, the number of applications allows only limited conclusions about the innovativeness. In general there is a huge number of low-quality patent publications in China, partly due to a dysfunctional government policy that re-wards the registration of patents regardless of their quality. In addition, many patent applications for Industry 4.0 components in China seem to be lower quality than those in the United States or Germany, and their acceptance rate is also significantly lower.5.4 STRONG INCREASE IN INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION NECESSARYThe innovation capacities of Chinese tech suppliers will increase in the coming years. However, Chinese enterprises and the government see the technology transfer from abroad as an impor-tant way to accelerate technological progress and to achieve the ambitious political goals. The need for the acquisition of foreign knowledge will presumably be most apparent where the gap between political ambition and domestic technological ability is the widest. In these areas en-terprises will receive political support for acquisitions overseas. Robots, robot core components, semiconductors and high-end machine tools will be the foci of international know-how accumula-tion by Chinese companies until 2025. There are many mechanisms and processes facilitating technology transfer. These include, for instance, technology spill-overs from inward-directed investments into China by foreign com-panies, cooperation with foreign companies and recruitment of foreign R&D personnel. A trend that is increasingly emerging is technology-seeking outbound investment into industrial countries by Chinese investors. The construction of R&D centres in industrial countries and the acquisition of foreign technology leaders can lead to absorption of essential knowledge and technology from abroad. Chinese investments in Europe's high-tech industries and the smart manufacturing indus-try have grown rapidly in recent years (see chapter 6).365.5 CONCLUSIONThe case studies of China's smart manufacturing industry (see below) illustrate that Chinese sup-pliers are still significantly less advanced (Table 6). However, a number of Chinese enterprises will become serious competitors in technologies such as industrial software, robotics and 3D printing. The formidable market position of foreign enterprises in China will gradually diminish in the next ten years. Chinese production technology will eventually replace foreign technology. The pace and extent of change will be decided by the effectiveness of policy measures, but also by the specific characteristics of the various technologies. The case studies below show, for example, that Chinese enterprises in 3D printing will catch up much faster than in robotics. In spite of the technology gap, however, Chinese robotics firms will become competitive faster than Chinese industrial software developers. This is due to the high cost of switching from existing foreign software systems, which are deeply integrated with the enterprises' processes, to new Chinese software.China sees the technology transfer from abroad as an important way to accelerate technological progress.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 42 | Chapter 5(C) MERICS Technology catch-up varies between technologiesCharacteristics of technology gap and development for industrial robotics, industrial software and 3D printingTable 6Industrial robotsIndustrial software 3D printingTechnological maturity HighHigh LowTechnology gap HighHighMediumForeign market dominance HighHighMediumPolicy support Very HighHighMediumProspects for catch-up MediumLowHighScope of international tech-nology acquisition HighMedium MediumMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 43Case StudiesCASE STUDY 1: INDUSTRIAL ROBOTSPolitical support and public focus on robotics are stronger than for any other manufacturing tech-nology. The enthusiasm for smart manufacturing is particularly well reflected in the rapid market growth for industrial robots: with 66,000 shipped robots in 2015, China is the biggest robot mar-ket worldwide. Demand could reach 160,000 units by 2019 (Figure 14).Market shares and technology gapThe technological abilities of Chinese robot makers lag far behind those of leading foreign enter-prises. Chinese suppliers cannot provide competitive high-performance robots such as six-axis and welding robots. To make things worse, the robots that Chinese enterprises can produce great-ly depend on critical core components from abroad like gear reducers, servo motors and controllers (Figure 15). These account for more than 70 per cent of the production price of an industrial robot. In the most sophisticated area of robotics, in programming, Chinese enterprises have developed only very basic skills. The market structure clearly shows the technology gap: ABB, Fanuc, Kuka and Yaskawa visibly control the market, with a market share of roughly 70 per cent. For high-per-formance robots, the market share of international brands is as high as 90 per cent. Chinese strengthsChinese robotic manufacturers have been able to develop basic technological skills. Among the leading enterprises are Siasun, Guangzhou Shukong, Harbin Boshi, Estun and Effort. However, the technological catch-up process has so far only focused on the low-end sector, such as loading robots and adapting foreign robots to Chinese customers' needs. Due to the progress in these areas, Chinese robot manufacturers raised their market share from less than 5 per cent in 2010 to about 30 per cent in 2015.Political supportThe central government shows extraordinarily high ambitions for the development of the Chinese robotics industry: Chinese robot makers are supposed to reach a domestic market share of 80 per cent by 2025, according to the ''Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap''. For sophis-ticated core components, the target is 70 per cent by 2025.(C) MERICS China is the largest robot marketShipments of multipurpose industrial robots in select countries (in units)Source: IFR, (from 2016 onwards estimates only)Figure 14 China Japan Germany040,000 80,000120,000160,00020122013201420152016 e 2017 e2018 e2019 eMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 44 | Case StudiesTo realise these ambitions, the government will again intensify its political incentives and fund-ing mechanisms in the robot industry in the years to come. As chapter 3 has shown, central and local governments boosted their financial support to the robotics industry and users of robots. Without government support, Estun, for instance, would have incurred losses in 2015.37 Many local governments support the purchase of robots with subsidies of between 15 and 30 per cent of the sale price.38 In some cases, combined subsidies for producers and users add up to 100 per cent of the price.39The huge political support could also backfire. There is a high danger of subsidy glut and overcapacities, especially in robotics. China will have a robotics industry valued at 716 billion CNY by 2020 or perhaps even earlier if all local targets for robot manufacturing industries are achieved.40 In contrast, the MIIT estimates that the market size may only reach 100 billion CNY for industrial robots and 30 billion CNY for service robots by 2020. Other experts predict a market size of 200 billion by 2020. By 2025, it may reach 600 billion according to the China Robotic Industry Alliance.41The state's subsidy glut has led to a tremendous increase in the number of Chinese robot companies. More than 800 Chinese robot companies are registered in China, approximately half of them in 2015. The majority of these companies have not yet reached the stage of mass produc-tion. Many of them just serve as rent-seeking vehicles to receive government subsidies and do not make any profit.International cooperationEven with massive state investment, Chinese robot manufacturers will have difficulty catching up in the next decade. To take a shortcut in technological progress, Chinese robot makers acquire foreign knowledge and technology. This is more apparent in robotics than in other smart manu-facturing technologies. Foreign direct investment by Chinese flagship companies is rising fast. Midea's acquisition of the German robot company Kuka is only the most prominent case. In anoth-er example, the Chinese robot company Wanfeng bought the United States robotics firm Paslin Source: MERICS, Gongkong(C) MERICS Chinese robot manufacturers depend on foreign suppliers for key componentsCost structure and sources for essential partsCost structure of a typical Chinese robotRobot CorpusControllerReduction GearServo MotorFigure 155 %22 %10 %38 %25 %Othermainly from domestic suppliersmainly from foreign suppliersMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 45Case Studiesin April 2016. Already in early 2015, Effort acquired the Italian robot company CMA Robotics and opened an R&D centre in Italy. China's market leader Siasun acquired a vocational training centre in eastern Germany.OutlookThe success of foreign robot manufacturers in China will be significantly diminished by 2025. A number of China's leading robot makers will be ready to seize foreigners' market shares: the combination of political support and foreign knowledge acquisition will enable them to provide cutting-edge technology. The dominance of Chinese enterprises will at first become more and more evident in the lower and middle sectors of the market. With a certain time lag, Chinese enter-prises will also increasingly manage to provide sophisticated six-axis robots, welding robots and core components. An area in which foreign robot makers could maintain a considerable advantage is intelligent robots for machine-human interaction. Chinese robot makers will rapidly catch up in robotic hardware, but will have more difficulties in robot programming. The rapidly growing market raises hope for foreigners that the number of units sold will remain high even if their market share drops.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 46 | Case StudiesCASE STUDY 2: INDUSTRIAL SOFTWARE, CLOUD COMPUTING AND BIG DATAThe growth rate of China's industrial software market in the last five years has been 17.5 per cent, well above the world average of 5.5 per cent (Figure 16).42 This growth concentrates mainly on basic digitisation such as the installation of ERP and MES systems (Industry 3.0). While China is still catching up with Industry 3.0, industrial software solutions that integrate cloud and big data services are gaining in importance on the Chinese market.Market shares and technology gapSimilar to industrial robotics, Chinese industrial software is also much less sophisticated than the products of SAP, Oracle and other foreign developers. Especially when it comes to complex software platforms for large corporations with international activities, the foreign products are unrivaled. This is obvious with regard to advanced IT solutions such as integrated cloud services and big data analysis. Consequently, the high-end segment of the industrial software market is dominated by international software providers. The top foreign developers account for more than 60 per cent of the generated value in the ERP market.Chinese strengthsThe ERP and MES products of Chinese software developers like Yonyou, Kingdee and Digiwin have made significant progress in terms of functionality and sophistication in recent years. The advantage of their software is that it is cheap and rather easy to use. A Chinese ERP software solution costs only a fraction of the price of an SAP ERP product.43 This fits quite well with the needs of private small and medium enterprises, but also with state-owned companies. With a good understanding of the specific needs and user-interface preferences of Chinese users, they can deliver tailored products to Chinese SMEs. Chinese enterprises also begin to focus their strat-egies on new, integrated software solutions and try to develop Industry 4.0 products that cater to the needs of Chinese companies.44 Leading internet enterprises like Alibaba and Tencent also increasingly offer industrial applications, especially in e-commerce and cloud computing.45Political supportAs in robotics, Made in China 2025-related documents seek to increase the share of Chinese software in the domestic market. However, political support for China's industrial software is less (C) MERICS Huge demand for industrial softwareIndustrial software market development in China (in billion CNY)Source: CCIDFigure 16020 40 6080100120 1402012201320142015MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 47Case Studiesvisible than for robotics. The instruments are similar but have a lower scale than in robotics. These include tax relief, direct subsidies and incentives for local software parks.46The government has not yet implemented extensive measures specifically aimed at limit-ing market access for foreign industrial software, although there are some restrictions for cloud computing and encryption software that can also affect the application of industrial software. So far, the government has deployed only a ''soft'' approach to technology nationalism. In 2016, the MIIT headed a series of events for Chinese software user and supplier companies to strengthen their exchange and to accelerate the application of home-grown software solutions in Chinese companies.47However, the Chinese government will increase protective measures if Chinese software comes close to reaching the same technological level as foreign competitors. Political interference will aim to provide an additional push for Chinese brands. Chinese industrial software companies are already lobbying for more governmental support, for instance through exclusive government procurement of Chinese solutions or through more systematic and reliable financial support.48OutlookChinese software developers will increasingly be able to provide complex software solutions. Even if the Chinese enterprises do not reach the same level of sophistication as foreign competi-tors, they will increasingly be able to provide tailored solutions for large Chinese corporations. The growing group of hopefuls will become especially important customers for them. However, technology substitution will not proceed as quickly as in robotics. The reason for this is neither the lower level of political support nor the lower technological level, but technolo-gy lock-in. Chinese software providers frequently point to international providers restricting the compatibility of their products with other international software solutions. In fact, lock-in effects are strong for industrial software: once a company has implemented and integrated a certain solu-tion into its organisational culture, it is very costly and time consuming to replace the software system with an alternative product. Although the majority of China's large companies consider using Chinese software solutions, they often end up using software from well-known and more popular international brands.49MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 48 | Case StudiesCASE STUDY 3: 3D PRINTINGMany definitions of Industry 4.0 do not include 3D printing. However, similar to networked produc-tion, additive manufacturing is a very promising technology with the potential to revolutionise in-dustrial production and many other fields such as medicine. Different from industrial software and robotics, 3D printing is a relatively immature technology. It is only at the early stage of commer-cialisation and the formation of a market. The industrial applications for 3D printing are currently limited to the manufacture of prototypes, spare parts and special parts. China's entire market for 3D printers, including industrial and non-industrial uses, has doubled annually for the last six years and a market value of 20 billion CNY is predicted for 2018 (Figure 17).50 Within the next 5 to 10 years, China will become the biggest market for 3D printing worldwide.51Technology gap and market sharesWhen it comes to industrial 3D printing, Chinese enterprises are less advanced than foreign competitors. Core components for industrial printers and high-end printing materials such as resin, ceramic and polymer powder are mostly imported from foreign suppliers.52 This situation is mirrored in China's corporate landscape. Even though about 200 new enterprises have sur-faced in the dynamic 3D printing market, only about ten currently work on developing 3D metal printers.53The slightly backward position of Chinese enterprises is, however, not as obvious as in robot-ics and industrial software. As the technology is rather immature, international players are not yet as dominant as in other industries. Innovations for industrial applications can still rearrange the market structure profoundly and suddenly.Chinese strengthsDespite a certain backwardness, Chinese enterprises are close to catching up to the international advanced level in industrial 3D printing. In contrast to robotics and industrial software, Chinese enterprises do not focus primarily on low-cost solutions and adaptation to Chinese customers' demands. Instead, Chinese companies have already built up some competitiveness in certain are-as. This includes printing methods like selective laser sintering (SLS) and selective beam melting (SBM)54 that use aluminium alloys, materials suitable for the aerospace industry due to their light-ness and resistance to corrosion.(C) MERICS Huge growth potential of 3D printing in China3D printing market development in China (in billion CNY)Source: Qianzhan, (from 2016 onwards estimates only)Figure 170 51015 20252013201420152016 e 2017 e2018 eMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 49Case StudiesChinese research institutions and enterprises are already among the global leaders in non-indus-trial uses for 3D printers. Chinese 3D printers for private consumers and for bio-printing are very advanced. Ground-breaking achievements by Chinese companies and research institutes in 3D printed body organs and tissue, housing structures and automobiles are regularly reported in the news.55Political supportThe emerging industry of professional 3D printing is mainly government-driven.56 Compared to robotics and industrial software, however, government support for industrial 3D printing is less apparent and focuses more on R&D than on commercialisation. In 2013, the Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) identified it as a core future technology in its 863 plan.57 In February 2015, the MIIT, the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the first national development plan to promote additive manufacturing,58 leading to a massive expansion in the field. In 2016, the central government pledged a total of more than 400 million CNY in funding for several R&D projects for 3D printing over four to five years.59 Government programmes especially emphasise aviation and metal printing as key areas. Government support will increase over the coming years as the technology becomes more mature.International cooperationSeveral Chinese 3D printing companies have started to cooperate with foreign counterparts. They are less focused on acquisitions than the robotics industry. The Chinese 3D printing manufacturer Kangshuo built a joint venture with the U.S. company Solidscape. The Chinese company Meimai cooperates with the German industrial 3D printing company Voxeljet.60 Hangzhou Shining put it-self on the map of 3D bio printing in 2015 by acquiring intellectual property rights for a 3D printer for liver samples and by expanding into the field of high-quality materials.61OutlookIt is very likely that Chinese 3D printing companies will quickly emerge as important market play-ers domestically and globally, faster than in other advanced production technologies. This is due to the dynamic development of the immature technology and increasing government support. There are several frontrunners likely to emerge as important global players: the most prom-ising are Beijing Tiertime, Farsoon and Zhuhai CTC Electronic. The Hunan-based Farsoon, for instance, produces SLS machines that are the first industrial printers with Chinese technology to compete on the European market.62 The company also provides printing material for SLS and recently collaborated with German chemical producer BASF on developing a new high-performing material.63 Another game changer will be Zhuhai CTC Electronic. With the backing of Zhuhai city, CTC built China's largest factory for 3D printers and recently launched two lines of industrial printers, including 3D metal printing.64 While companies in industrial countries own most patents for met-al printers, CTC has become the first Chinese firm to develop its own proprietary metal printing technology.65MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 50 | 6. Implications for industrial countriesChina's high ambitions and extensive political support for the manufacturing sector will reshape global competition structures. Despite the weaknesses of China's top-down policy, a group of Chinese companies will be able to utilise the political support effectively and significantly boost their competitiveness. And these emerging companies will continue to enjoy intense state sup-port. The Chinese state will seek to shield their activities from international competition at home and to support their engagement on global markets politically as well as financially. The global competitive playing field will be effectively tilted by Chinese industrial policy.This poses a number of fundamental challenges to industrial countries and international enterprises. China's industrial policy aims at technological leadership in industries that currently represent the foundation of these countries economic growth. In the near future, Chinese smart manufacturing users and suppliers will contest the market positions of established international enterprises both within and outside China.6.1 INDUSTRIAL POLICY MEASURES CHALLENGE FOREIGN COMPANIESAs the previous chapters have shown, Chinese industrial policy uses a broad mix of traditional instruments to protect Chinese companies from international competition. This includes market access restrictions for international companies as well as subsidies and public procurement reg-ulations favouring Chinese enterprises. These instruments are increasingly complemented by a set of nuanced policy measures tailored to the technical and regulatory specifics of smart man-ufacturing. Four types of policy interventions will present a particular challenge to foreign enterpris-es and governments: state-driven outbound foreign direct investment in high-tech industries, state-controlled data flows, market access restrictions and China's strategic use of standardisa-tion.Chinese smart manufacturing users and suppliers will contest the market positions of established international enterprises. KEY FINDINGS China's industrial policy will have an enormous impact on many industrial countries. Countries in which high-tech industries contribute a large share to the industrial output are most exposed to Made in China 2025. Following the current gold-rush period for foreign businesses in China, China's industrial agenda will negatively impact foreign tech suppliers and manufactur-ers in the years ahead. The Chinese state promotes investment in leading foreign technology enter-prises with the aim of systematically acquiring cutting-edge technology and generating large-scale technology transfer. It is a realistic scenario that the widespread technology absorption by China will contribute to the erosion of industrial countries' technological leadership in specific industries. At the moment, China is still a relatively open market for greenfield investment of foreign tech suppliers in smart manufacturing. However, if protection-ist measures increase, they will pose a serious long-term risk to foreign tech suppliers. The Chinese government's tight control of cyberspace affects the use of digital business applications, hinders the transfer of data and exposes sensitive business information to the grasp of the state.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 51Chapter 6CHALLENGE 1: TECHNOLOGICAL HOLLOWING OUT BY STATE-DRIVEN FDIThe rapidly growing inflow of Chinese FDI into Europe and the United States has broadly positive effects on the host countries. Many acquired enterprises benefit significantly from the inflow of capital and welcome potential opportunities to better develop their business in China. The man-agers of many enterprises report that they have retained independent decision making after the acquisitions.However, this overall positive impression is overshadowed by a newly emerging trend: stra-tegic and technology-seeking FDI guided and supported by the state. The Chinese state promotes investment in leading foreign technology enterprises with the aim of systematically acquiring cutting-edge technology and generating large-scale technology transfer. Since state-led FDI in high-tech sectors is a new phenomenon, its full extent and precise effects are not yet entirely clear. But it is a realistic scenario that the widespread technology absorption by China will contrib-ute to the erosion of industrial countries' technological leadership in specific industries. China's ''going out'' policy emphasises international investment as a critical step towards building Chinese champions with global influence. There are strong indications that the absorp-tion of advanced technology is an increasingly prevalent motive for the state's push for outbound FDI. From this perspective, Made in China 2025 can be read as a grand strategy for technolo-gy-seeking investment.Figure 18(C) MERICS The state hides behind investment management companiesOwnership relations of Beijing JAC Capital Ltd., investor in NXP's RF power business in 2015Source: MERICS private investors Mostly privately-owned Mostly state-owned100%99,78%76% 100%100%24%51% 49%Misleading statement on webpage of JIC Capital: ''JIC Capital is a private fund management company''NXP RF PowerFan Zhenhong 樊è‡>>宏 Zhang Guangzhou å¼ å…‰æ´² Wang De Xiao 王德æ' Li Bin æ'Žæ>>¨Jianping Technology LPå>>ºå¹"¼å¤(C)æ´¥¼‰ç§‘æŠä息å'¨è¯åä¼ä¼ä¸š¼æ'‰éåä¼¼‰China Jianyin Investment Ltd.中国å>>ºé'¶æŠ•èµæ'‰éè´£ä>>>>公司Central Huijin Investment中央汇金投èµæ'‰éè´£ä>>>>公司 China Investment Corporation中国投èµæ'‰éè´£ä>>>>公司 State CouncilJIC Technology Investment Ltd.å>>ºæŠ•åŽç§‘投èµè‚ä>>½æ'‰éå…¬å¸Beijing Jianguang Asset Management (Beijing JAC Capital)北京å>>ºå¹èµäº§ç®ç†æ'‰éå…¬å¸ JIC Capital Management Ltd.中å>>ºæŠ•èµæ'¬ç®ç†¼å¤(C)æ´¥¼‰æ'‰éå…¬å¸07/12/2015Takeover of NXP RF PowerMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 52 | Chapter 6The Chinese leadership's increasing interest in technology-seeking FDI is apparent from the discourse in Beijing policy circles: Ding Wenwu, head of the Electronic Information Technology Department of the MIIT and the National IC Fund, which actively invests abroad, said that ''inter-national acquisitions are often also an opportunity to attract foreign talent and to acquire tech-nology''.66 Wang Xiaohong, a researcher at the government-based China Center for International Economic Exchanges, stated that investment in Europe is especially suitable when seeking to ''acquire global advanced technology and create spill-over effects''.67The ambitions of the Chinese state become visible through its actions: Chinese FDI in high-tech industries with direct or indirect links to state entities has significantly increased in recent years. Since Made in China 2025 was released in 2015, investment in European smart manufac-turing suppliers by Chinese state-owned enterprises as well as by private enterprises partially supported with state capital has risen rapidly (Table 7). The quest for foreign technology at times (C) MERICS Growing number of acquisitions of foreign tech suppliersInvestment by Chinese enterprises in foreign companies specialising in automation and digitisation of industrial productionNotes: * = State-owned enterprises (share of state institutions >50%)Source: MERICS researchTable 7DateChinese Investor Foreign TargetCountryShareDec 2013 AVIC* KHD Humboldz WedagGermany79%Jun 2014 Preh (Subsidiary of Joyson Electronics) IMA AutomationGermany100%Dec 2014 Wolong Electric SIR Solutions IndustrialiItaly89%Jan 2015 Huachangda Intelligent Equip. (HCD) Shanghai DEMC/ Dearborn Mid-West Company (DMW)United States100%Jan 2016 ChemChina* KraussMaffei machine toolsGermany100%Mar 2016 Siasun* TeutloffGermany100%Apr 2016 Wanfeng PaslinUnited States100%Apr 2016 AVIC* AritexSpain95%Apr 2016 (announced) Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co. JOT AutomationFinland100%May 2016 Shanghai Electric* ManzGermany19,67%May 2016 Dongfang Precision EDF EUROPE S.R.L.Italy100%Jun 2016 Agic Capital GimaticItalyN/AAug 2016 Shanggong Group H. StollGermany26%Aug 2016 Midea KukaGermany94,5%Oct 2016 Shanghai Electric* Broetje AutomationGermany100%Withdrawn FGC Investment AixtronGermanyN/AMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 53Chapter 6even targets entire industries: for instance, almost all of the large semiconductor enterprises in the United States have received investment offers from Chinese state actors.Sovereign investment funds and governmental investment management companies play an increasing role in high-tech FDI. While these funds and their management often present themselves as private enterprises, the state's active role is concealed behind an opaque network of ownership and funding structures. The State Council and local governments primarily use these funds and the expertise of private managers to make subsidies to Chinese enterprises more efficient. These funds are now becoming increasingly active with regard to investment in overseas markets. Examples of such funds and investment vehicles are the National IC Fund and the China Investment Corporation and its subordinate funds. One example of an investment by a Chinese state-owned investment corporation is the acquisition of the radio frequency power business of Dutch semiconductor enterprise NXP by JAC Capital Ltd., of which an investment vehicle of the State Council owns 51 per cent (Figure 18). The China Investment Corporation also contributed 550 million USD to the Asia-Germany Industrial Promotion Capital (AGIC), a private Chinese-owned investment fund based in Germany targeting investment in European Industry 4.0 enterprises.68It is very likely that state-led FDI aiming at technology absorption will further increase in the coming years. With regard to smart manufacturing, the newly created Advanced Manufacturing Fund will probably also make investments abroad.Figure 19(C) MERICS The Fujian connectionThe network of potential state and private investors behind the bid for machine maker AixtronSource: Capital, MERICSAixtron23/05/2016Offer to Aixtron09/12/2015Cancellation of order causes drop in share pricesGrand Chip Investment GmbH (Germany)Huang Wanming é>>皖æŽWang Zhongyao 王å 垚Grand Chip Investment S. .r.l. (Luxemburg)Liu Zhendong å振ä¸'Xiamen Youhong TradeåŽ...门友宏贸æ'æ'‰éå…¬å¸Fujian Grand Chip Investment LPç...å>>ºå®èŠ¯æŠ•èµåŸºé‡‘åä¼ä¼ä¸š San'an Group 三安集å›San'an Optoelectronics三安光ç--µè‚ä>>½æ'‰éå…¬å¸Sino IC Leasing芯é‘融èµç§Ÿèµæ'‰éè´£ä>>>>公司Xiamen Bohao Investment åŽ...门博灏投èµæ'‰éå…¬å¸Jinyuan Investment Group åŽ...门金å'†æŠ•èµé›†å›æ'‰éå…¬å¸China Development Bank ( Xiamen)中国å¼å‘é'¶èŒJinyuan Industry DevelopmentåŽ...门金å'†äº§ä¸šå‘展æ'‰éå…¬å¸Agricultural Bank of China (Shanghai)中国å†'业é'¶èŒBureau of Finance (City of Xiamen)åŽ...门市è´æ--å±State Council & various state-owned enterprisesPurchased bondsLoan guaranteesNational IC Fund国家集æç--µè·¯äº§ä¸šæŠ•èµåŸºé‡‘è‚ä>>½æ'‰éå…¬å¸ Mostly privately-owned private investors Mostly state-owned35.21 %100 % 100 % 97.5 % 2.5 % 100 %8.5 %5.3 %51 %49 %MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 54 | Chapter 6As technology-seeking state-led FDI becomes more pronounced, it creates a serious challenge for industrial countries. Regardless of the implications for national security and geopolitical consider-ations, this kind of investment could undermine their technological leadership in several high-tech industries. Large-scale investment in industries such as smart manufacturing equipment poten-tially opens the door for systematic technology transfer: with a certain time lag, state-driven FDI in high-tech enterprises is likely to cause an absorption of knowledge, talent and patents by Chinese enterprises.If Chinese enterprises prove capable of using this technology effectively, a hollowing out of the technological leadership of industrial countries in pillar industries is possible. The duplication and transfer of technology from Europe or the United States to China is a realistic scenario. An example is the takeover of the American permanent magnet manufacturer Magnequench in the late 1990s by the state-owned enterprises China National Non-Ferrous Metals Import and Export Corporation and San Huan New Material, a subsidiary of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. After the Chinese investors had taken over Magnequench, they duplicated the production facility in China and closed down the site in the United States. In part due to this acquisition, China emerged as the largest manufacturer of permanent magnets worldwide, whereas there is no longer any significant production of these critical high-tech components in the U.S.69A hollowing out of the techno-logical leader-ship of industrial countries in pillar industries is possible.RECENT CONTROVERSIES OVER CHINESE HIGH-TECH INVESTMENT IN EUROPEMidea and KukaTwo recent bids for high-tech enterprises ignited a controversial debate about Chinese FDI within political and economic circles in Europe. The first was the bid that led to the acquisition of robot maker Kuka by the Chinese electrical appliance manufacturer Midea. Kuka is a German flagship enterprise for Industry 4.0 technology. Although Midea promised not to transfer Kuka's intellectual property rights until 2023, it is likely that the enterprise's knowledge and abilities will be transferred to Midea in the long term. From a national strategic perspective, a transfer of knowledge from Kuka to Midea will harm Germany's position in the robotics industry. However, from a business perspec-tive the Midea-Kuka deal represents a rather unproblematic form of investment: Midea is a mostly privately-owned company that purportedly financed the deal privately.Fujian Grand Chip Investment and AixtronThe failed attempt by Fujian Grand Chip Investment (FGC) to take over the German ma-chine maker Aixtron is a much more complex case (Figure 19).70 Aixtron is one of two glob-al producers of machines required to produce semiconductors for photovoltaics and LEDs, among other applications. The owner of FGC is a private businessperson, Liu Zhendong. However, the opaque network of ostensibly private investors of FGC actually conceals the Chinese state as an important investor and lender: the central government-controlled Sino IC Leasing, a subsidiary of the National IC Fund, offered to provide a loan of 500 million EUR to make the deal possible.71 The other state actor involved is Xiamen Bohao Invest-ment, an investment enterprise owned by the city government of Xiamen. Even more alarming is the fact that Aixtron was faced with a tumbling share price after the Fujian-based San'an Optoelectronics cancelled a large order of machines in late 2015. Aixtron had already incurred big losses before, but this cancellation was the final trigger that caused the enterprise to seek a new investor. Some facts point to a close re-lationship between the customer San'an and the potential investors FGC and the National IC Fund. The parent company of San'an Optoelectronics, the San'an group, owns shares in Sino IC Leasing. Moreover, San'an Optoelectronics previously received a National IC fund in-vestment of 9 per cent. Xiamen Bohao Investment also previously bought bonds of San'an.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 55Chapter 6CHALLENGE 2: DATA AND CYBER REGULATIONS PUT MANUFACTURERS' INDUSTRIAL DATA AT RISKSmart manufacturing relies heavily on the generation, transmission and storage of sensitive business and production data. Accordingly, the integrity and safety of data flows is key to the operation of smart manufacturing processes. In this respect, China provides a very unfavourable digital environment for foreign enterprises. The Chinese government's tight control of cyberspace affects the use of digital business applications, hinders the transfer of data and exposes sensitive business information to the grasp of the state. China has rigid written and unwritten rules and measures for cyber governance. The govern-ment sees control of data as a key instrument for protecting the predominant political role of the party. The enormous censorship system extensively filters all digital communication. The govern-ment seeks to tightly control encryption methods and to force companies to reveal encryption codes to the authorities. Sales or commercial use of encryption devices by foreign enterprises have to be authorised by the Office of State Commercial Cryptography Administration (OSCCA). Today, restrictions on the use of encryption devices are already highly problematic for foreign companies. In practice, it is very difficult for foreign enterprises to obtain these licenses. With the development of the Internet of Things and the broad use of smartphones, the tracking of private information by the state is about to penetrate every aspect of social and eco-nomic life. For example, all electric vehicles in China already have to transmit position information to Chinese government agencies every few seconds.72 The intensifying penetration of industry by digital applications and the corresponding increase in available data is also highly likely to spur an increase in the collection of different kinds of production data by state institutions. These regulations and measures are very harmful to foreign business in smart manufactur-ing. First, foreign enterprises have to take into account that the Chinese state can have systemat-ic access to sensitive business data, as enterprises might be required to open their systems to the Chinese state. It is possible that government institutions will also use the obtained data to inform Chinese companies about the knowledge and secrets of foreign competitors. Second, enterprises have to operate in legally grey areas to protect their data. Restrictions on the use of encryption devices force some foreign enterprises to illegally circumvent these regulations to ensure their data is protected. Third, the low internet speed of connections to foreign servers and the regulations on en-cryption render internet communication and many smart manufacturing business models ineffec-tive. For instance, remote maintenance of machines (smart services), which involves the transmis-sion of encrypted sensitive machine data to and from service centres outside of China, is difficult to carry out under the current regulations. Tight cyber governance is likely to remain in place. The new Cyber Security Law, released in November 2016, contains a provision that customer data pertaining to critical infrastructure should be stored and processed within China. Critical infrastructure is defined as communication technology, energy, transport, water supply, financial services and public supply facilities. Manda-tory storage of sensitive data in China entails serious security risks for the data owners. The local storage requirement gives the Chinese state easy access to the data of international companies. In addition, technical weaknesses in the Chinese server infrastructure increase the vulnerability to cyber attacks. CHALLENGE 3: INCREASING MARKET ACCESS RESTRICTIONS FOR TECH SUPPLIERSAt the moment, China is still a relatively open market for the greenfield investments of foreign tech suppliers into smart manufacturing. The state explicitly encourages foreign investment into areas such as industrial robots or high-end machine tools. However, Chinese market access regulation typically follows strategic industrial policy goals: markets are initially open to attract foreign technology, to help technological progress and to facilitate learning from foreign enter-prises. Once Chinese companies are making significant progress in closing the technology gap, the Chinese government seeks to increase their market share by erecting barriers to foreign market China has rigid written and unwritten rules and measures for cyber governance.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 56 | Chapter 6activities. If market access regulation follows this pattern in the case of smart manufacturing, it will pose a serious long-term risk for foreign tech suppliers.China's government is already closing the market for information technologies. The Mul-ti-Level Protection Scheme, for instance, has constrained the use of foreign-produced security applications in state institutions since 2007. After the Snowden revelations, the Chinese govern-ment tightened its restrictions for foreign information technology. E-commerce and cloud com-puting '' software as a service (SaaS) and software as a platform (SaaP) '' companies must comply with restrictive rules in order to receive Internet Content Provider (ICP) licenses.73 As a matter of fact, few foreign products obtain the necessary licenses. Foreign tech suppliers such as Cisco, IBM and Qualcomm have already been hit hard by the successive closure of the IT market. As industrial machines become more and more digitised and connected to the internet, government interfer-ence in the IT market will have a growing impact on the machinery industry. Furthermore, foreign tech suppliers will be increasingly affected by new regulations that certify ''trustworthy products''. The rules for ''secure and controllable'' ICT products affect foreign businesses in many sectors. As of today, foreign products are, for instance, not included in the lists of cloud services labelled as trustworthy.74 For now, this has limited impact on foreign enter-prises' business opportunities. These certification systems will, however, play a role in the state's construction of the so-called Social Credit System (社会äç--¨ä½'ç">>). Based in particular on big data analysis, the Social Credit System is intended to rate companies depending on their economic and social trustworthiness.75 The system is meant to regulate the market and to restrict market ac-cess, excluding those who are defined as not trustworthy based on the Chinese leadership's rules. If the Social Credit System is implemented successfully, it will evolve to be a powerful new tool that restricts the business activities of foreign tech suppliers in strategically important sectors such as industrial e-commerce and software.CHALLENGE 4: DOMESTIC STANDARDS SUPPORT INDUSTRIAL POLICY GOALSChina is generally willing to harmonise its national standards with international standards, which would facilitate market access for foreign businesses. The ongoing reform of its standardisation system and the revision of the Standardisation Law point to a liberalisation and internationalisa-tion. Private actors are encouraged to set industry standards and regulators are encouraged to collaborate with their international counterparts. There are positive examples of joint standardi-sation initiatives with China. Active standardisation dialogues for Industry 4.0 exist, for example, between China and Germany. The Chinese reference architecture for smart manufacturing is very similar to the German standardisation reference architecture for Industry 4.0 (RAMI 4.0).76 This provides a window of opportunity to promote European standards and to facilitate market access for foreign enterprises. Similar to other countries, China is strengthening its efforts to influence and set interna-tional standards in order to support the export of Chinese technologies and reduce the burden of paying royalty fees for international patents. Although this increases competition with China in standardisation, this occurs within established international organisations. Due to the large Chinese market for smart manufacturing, it is likely that China will become an influential force in relevant international committees. In the case of smart manufacturing, China has already scored a success by introducing its process and factory automation standards (WIA-PA and WIA-FA) under the International Electrotechnical Commission.77At the same time, China sometimes formulates national standards in strategic industries that deliberately differ from international standards in order to impede market access for foreign technology and to favour Chinese technology on the domestic market. Examples of Chinese na-tional standards are the FDD-LTE standard for 4G mobile networks, the WAPI standard for wireless networks and independent standards for electric vehicle charging stations. If such a national path of standardisation also manifests itself in smart manufacturing, market access for foreign tech suppliers could be considerably restricted. The standardisation reform gives more weight to enter-prise-led committees in standards setting. However, it is possible that state-owned enterprises and state-dominated associations use their increased influence to introduce standards that make China is generally willing to harmonise its national standards with international standards.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 57Chapter 6market activities for foreign enterprises more difficult.This specifically relates to technologies with strong data security concerns like cloud com-puting, industrial software and big data. It is concerning that Chinese smart manufacturing stand-ards for key technologies show a low correlation with international standards when compared to more basic smart manufacturing standards, which are less important for controlling a technology (for instance, safety and management requirements) (Figure 20). In the worst case, nationally independent standards would cut off foreign machinery makers and software developers from the Chinese market in some strategically important technologies. Alternatively, these enterprises would have to use the Chinese standards and pay royalty fees for providing products using the Chinese standards in order to maintain a presence in the Chinese market.6.2 MADE IN CHINA 2025 COULD HARM BUSINESS OF FOREIGN ENTERPRISESFollowing the current gold-rush period, China's industrial agenda will negatively impact foreign tech suppliers and manufacturers in the years ahead, irrespective of the strategy's ultimate level of success. The degree of the negative impact will, however, vary substantially between different technologies and industries and depends on the pace and effectiveness of the implementation of Made in China 2025. Eventually, any scenario for Made in China 2025 will lead to higher com-petition from China and a significant decrease in business opportunities for foreign companies as these will increasingly be affected by Chinese industrial policy (Table 8).Tech suppliersChina's political agenda to support smart manufacturing will greatly enhance business opportu-nities and create ''golden years'' for foreign tech suppliers at first. In a second phase after 2020, however, the Chinese government will take steps to restrict market access as soon as Chinese are able to compete with their own domestic products. The government will increase political inter-vention in the market and will try to squeeze out international competitors. If successful, this will lead to a third phase after 2025, in which Chinese companies become strong competitors in China and on global markets (scenario I). If Chinese companies fail to catch up, foreign tech suppliers will continue to have market opportunities in China but they will face political intervention and an unfair market environment (scenario II). Scenarios I and II might both come to pass at the same time, though for different technologies and industries.(C) MERICS China goes its own way in cloud computing and big dataPercentage of Chinese standards correlating with internationally agreed standards in variouscategoriesSource: SAC Figure 20Selected key technologies: cloud computing, industrial software, big dataKey smart manufacturing technology standardsBasic smart manufacturing standards Correlating with international standards Not correlating with international standards1000 10 2030405060708090MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 58 | Chapter 6(C) MERICS Future impact of China's industrial policy on foreign manufacturers and tech suppliersThe three phases of China's catch-up process and their implications for foreign companiesTable 8Phase I: Golden years (approx. 2016-2020)Developments in ChinaImpact on foreign tech suppliersImpact on foreign manufacturersOpportunities ChallengesOpportunitiesChallengesPolicy-induced demand for smart manufacturing Large business oppor-tunitiesSlightly growing competition from new Chinese competitorsChina as laboratory to test smart manufac-turing; qualitative im-provement of Chinese supply chainCompetition from frontrunnersPreparation of and experiments with stronger industrial policy measures Possibility to influence design of future policy measuresGradually increasing business restrictionsGrowing state-backed overseas FDI in high-tech industries New funding sources; access to the Chinese marketTechnology drainPhase II: Market closure (approx. 2020-2025)Strong enforcement of industrial policy measures prepared during Phase I Strong and unfair competitionRestrictions on the use of foreign IT products and infrastructureContinued massive gov-ernment funding Large business oppor-tunitiesOvercapacities among Chinese enterprises; price deteriorationChinese spending lowers prices for smart manufacturing technologiesStronger competition from Chinese frontrun-ners and hopefulsChinese companies use technologies and know-how acquired in Phase I to enhance their competi-tiveness Accelerating technol-ogy transfer to China due to Chinese invest-ments during Phase IStrong Chinese competitors selling high-quality products Lower costs for high quality smart manu-facturing technologiesPolitical support for Chi-nese companies to expand to international markets Increasing competi-tion on international marketsIncreasing competi-tion on international marketsPhase III: Success or Failure of Made in China 2025 (after 2025)Scenario I '' Success of Made in China 2025Lowering of market barri-ers for foreign enterprises Improved market access Improved market accessStrong competitiveness of Chinese companies with-out government support Strong competition, even in high-tech sectorChinese enterprises challenge foreign market leaders across the boardPolitical promotion of international expansion Lower market shares on home markets; loss of international high-tech leadershipLower market shares on home markets; loss of international high-tech leadershipScenario II '' Failure of Made in China 2025 Continuous market barri-ers for foreign companies Unfair competition Unfair competitionLarge part of China's industry remains at a low level of smart manufac-turing High-tech market leadership remainsDrop in demand for smart manufacturingHigh-tech market leadership remainsStrong competition, but only from a few frontrunners and hopefulsMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 59Chapter 6ManufacturersIn the coming years until 2020, foreign manufacturers will continue to benefit from their enor-mous advantages in smart manufacturing. Only a few Chinese frontrunners will begin to chal-lenge established multinational corporations, leading to a slow shift in market structures. As the Chinese policy gradually becomes effective during the second phase after 2020, however, more and more Chinese hopefuls will use advanced technologies to increase their leverage and to com-pete with their international counterparts on the Chinese market. Internationally, foreign manu-facturers will still be able to maintain their leading position. Yet Chinese challengers will increase their competitiveness at high speed. If China's smart manufacturing agenda proves successful, a large group of hopefuls will become strong competitive players after 2025, both in China and worldwide. This will lead to significantly diminished market shares for established internation-al corporations. If Made in China 2025 is not successful, the group of hopefuls challenging the market leadership of international corporations will be significantly smaller than in the case of success. Despite the increasing market shares of Chinese companies, foreign market leaders will be able to maintain their dominant roles in many industries.6.3 CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL POLICY PUTS PRESSURE ON INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIESChina's industrial policy will have an enormous impact on the entire national economies of many industrial countries. These impacts will reach beyond smart manufacturing. China's industrial policy targets industries of fundamental importance for the economic growth of many industri-al countries. If China's industrial policy is successful, these countries will experience lower GDP growth rates, job losses and a decrease in industrial output. Countries in which high-tech industries contribute a large share to the industrial output are most exposed to Made in China 2025 (Figure 21). The Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Japan and South Korea will be most vulnerable if Made in China 2025 is successful, as outlined in scenario I. Their future economic growth relies heavily on industrial production. The high- and medium-tech industries that Made in China 2025 identifies as strategically important account for more than 40 per cent of their industrial value-added. The largest industries that will be affected by China's industrial policy are automotive and machinery. Machinery is the most important high-tech industry for nine European countries, while the automotive industry is the largest high-tech industry in seven countries. Other important in-dustries such as chemicals will also feel the impact of Chinese industrial policy. For the countries that will potentially be most affected, a fast and coordinated response to China's strategic industrial policy related to Made in China 2025 is of the utmost importance. The success of Made in China 2025 is still uncertain as its implementation faces a number of difficul-ties and many policy measures are not yet set in stone. A timely reaction could still influence some measures and reduce the negative impacts on industrial countries and their companies. Chinese challengers will increase their competitiveness at high speed.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 60 | Chapter 6Figure 21Source: MERICS(C) MERICS Under Pressure: Industrialised countries will feel the heat of Made in China 2025Vulnerability of select industrial countries to Made in China 2025 510 15 2025 30 35510 15202530Importance of high-tech industriesShare of manufacturing value-added contributed by high-tech industries (per cent)Dependence on manufacturingShare of manufacturing value-added of GDP (per cent)35 4045505560657000low exposureMaltaLatviaLithuaniaBulgariaRomania Czech RepublicHungaryJapan South KoreaGermanyIrelandSlovakiaAustriaDenmarkSpainPolandFinland SwedenItaly BelgiumUnited StatesNetherlandsFranceUnited Kingdom SloveniaEstoniaGreeceCyprusLuxembourg CroatiaPortugal high exposureMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 617. RecommendationsMade in China 2025 poses a great challenge to economies and enterprises around the world. Decision makers in Europe and the U.S. need to take the enormous potential of China's sophisti-cated industrial policy seriously in order to remain competitive against China's rapidly emerging, powerful enterprises. Policy makers, industry associations as well as suppliers, producers and us-ers of smart manufacturing technology will have to react smartly to the challenges presented in Chapter 6. A swift and determined response will improve the prospects for international compa-nies to grasp the opportunities presented by Made in China 2025 while containing its potentially detrimental impacts.7.1 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY MAKERSDEVELOPING NEW INSTRUMENTS TO ADDRESS STATE-DRIVEN FDILarge parts of China's foreign direct investments (FDI) create significant benefits for the acquired companies and are largely unproblematic from a macroeconomic perspective. Europe and the United States should continue to welcome these investments. State-led investments, however, increasingly aim at replacing global technology leaders by way of transnational takeovers and subsequent localisation of acquired technologies. China's technology acquisitions are often supported and guided by the Chinese state, using government financing and opaque investment networks. At the same time, China denies reciprocal market access for international investors. This undermines the principles of fair competition and exploits the openness of market economies (see Chapter 6). It is a misunderstanding to lable government screening of state-led investments as protec-tionist. On the contrary, building the leverage to prevent market distortions would prove that pol-icy makers are willing and able to actively defend liberal market principles, including openness to investment. The existing instruments in Europe for reacting to problematic FDI are inadequate to ad-dress the emerging challenges. Policy makers need a refined set of options to effectively respond to different types of acquisition attempts. The options need to be non-discriminatory and apply equally to state-led investments from all countries. The following provides a menu of ideas for strengthening the existing policy toolbox. Increase transparency by tightening disclosure requirements for state-led acquisi-tions. It is essential for sound decision making on FDI inflows to obtain more extensive and ac-curate information about the background of outside investors. Transparency is a prerequisite for calibrated state intervention and provides the basis for long-term adjustments of FDI screening regimes. Mandatory notification and disclosure requirements for state-owned or state-financed entities are indispensable for increasing transparency. The threshold for notification will have to consider the share taken in a company, the size of the investment and the involvement of the state. While the implementation of disclosure mechanisms is most feasible at the member state level, sharing information at the EU level will enhance the ability to react to EU-wide patterns of state-investment in high-tech sectors. Extend the scope of national security screenings. Following the example of the Commit-tee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), FDI into Europe should be more compre-hensively screened for national security implications. The current narrow set of criteria to deter-mine what constitutes a national security concern could be widened to include additional sectors and products and should be updated to keep up with technological developments. Sensitive infor-mation is no longer limited to the defence industry in a narrow sense, but is increasingly shared within a wider circle of machinery and enterprise software suppliers. The increasing importance of cyberspace as a primary arena for conflict underlines the necessity to rethink the definition of national security with regard to foreign investment activities.FDI into Europe should be more comprehensively screened for national security implications.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 62 | 7. RecommendationsUse competition policy more broadly for reviewing state-owned investors. Existing com-petition policies at EU and member state level provide a basis for the regulation of investment. Expanding the application of EU state aid rules to all entities operating in the single market rep-resents a pragmatic way for addressing Chinese and other external FDI in breach of competition rules. In addition, merger control procedures can be more broadly used for screening investments from state-owned enterprises by way of considering all state-owned enterprises from the same country as a single economic entity. In 2016, the European Commission set an example by inves-tigating the extent of government control of China's state-owned China General Nuclear Power Corp before allowing investment in the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant in the UK. Establish reciprocity measures to address and negotiate Chinese investment barri-ers. When evaluating the necessity for state intervention, decision makers should also consid-er whether the partner country grants reciprocal access for inbound investment. Access should be granted or denied based on a sector-specific ''equivalence of openness'' test. Standards and thresholds for this course of action can for instance be based on OECD openness criteria and as-sessments. However, such a measure would be in breach of current EU law. A change of EU trea-ties would be necessary to allow interventions based on such 'žequivalence of openness'' tests. Screen state-led investments for systematic acquisition of essential high technology. A possible new mechanism could be a review of non-EU state-led FDI specifically in high-tech industries. FDI screening would be triggered by non-EU investments aimed at a politically moti-vated, systematic relocation of core technologies. Responsible state agencies would be allowed to attach conditions (e.g. barriers to technology transfer) to the completion of a transaction or to entirely block a deal in exceptional cases. This would require a major reform of the European investment regime to make technology-based interventions legally sound. Such a reform is cur-rently politically highly unlikely.MITIGATING CYBER RISKSForeign enterprises in China are insufficiently protected against the insecure digital environment in the country and the expansive collection of data by the state. Although enterprises can them-selves improve their level of protection, only national European governments and the EU can mit-igate the systemic cyber risks in China. The following responses can improve the protection of sensitive industrial data: Leverage smart manufacturing cooperation to improve cyber-security dialogue. Chi-na's government actively strives for close international cooperation on smart manufacturing. This provides an opportunity for European governments to demand concessions from China in return. Making the political backing of cooperation with China on smart manufacturing conditional on substantial progress in the dialogue on cyber security will create leverage. This leverage can be used to demand, for instance, the adjustment of Chinese cyber policies that discriminate against or openly harm foreign businesses. Deepen cyber-security cooperation. To improve cyber security in smart manufacturing, Europe and the United States need to further extend their cyber-security dialogues with Chi-na. While Chinese counterparts often prioritise the discussion of cybercrime, European and U.S. negotiators should shift the focus towards cyber security regulations and standards (for exam-ple, the implementing regulations for China's Cyber Security Law), encryption, data transmission, data storage and cyber-espionage. On the European side, this requires effective cooperation be-tween national ministries of science, the economy and the interior as well as between member states. Increase R&D investments in cyber defence capabilities. Increased public funding for the digital protection of industrial systems and enhanced R&D for IT security is essential for a strong industrial cyber defence capability. The use of digitised production makes industry more vulnerable to cyber theft of business secrets and sensitive information. Many cyberattacks orig-inate from Chinese territory. Concrete measures to mitigate these risks include establishing new university programmes and research units for cyber security and increasing the focus of publically funded institutions providing cyber defence services to industry.Europe and the United States need to further extend their cyber-security dialogues with China.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 637. RecommendationsImplement a targeted industrial policy for crucial cyber technologies. As a pro-active re-sponse to China's strategic industrial policy, European policy makers should set out to design and implement a narrowly targeted industrial policy themselves, focusing on a small number of stra-tegic infant industry sectors for which government promotional and protective policies would make the greatest difference. The top-priority sector for such a targeted programme is Europe's cyber defence industry at the EU and member state level. Significant public investments in cyber defence technologies would not only create crucial benefits for national and economic security. It would also generate spill-over effects boosting the broader advancement of viable European IT and AI industries.Sustained public investment in European cyber defence businesses and start-ups would provide a much needed upgrade of protection against cyberattacks of state or non-state origin that carry increasing security, political and economic risks. Beyond the risks of military sabotage, this includes manipulation of democratic public opinion and elections, economic espionage, and technology theft. Targeted public demand, through co-investment and public procurement, would catalyse the emergence of a network of collaborating cyber defence companies. This state-backed network would provide favourable and reliable economic conditions for crucial technology companies, mak-ing them less susceptible for takeover offers from abroad. In remaining cases of foreign acqui-sition attempts, the EU and national governments need to strictly apply existing provisions for state intervention: foreign takeovers of cyber defence-related hardware and software companies need to be thoroughly screened and, where necessary, prohibited on the grounds of national se-curity concerns.EXAMINING THE CONFORMITY OF CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL POLICY WITH INTERNATIONAL LAWPolicy makers need ways to counteract the systematic closure of the Chinese market in important high-tech sectors. One potential method of achieving this is the investigation of Chinese localisa-tion targets and subsidies and their compatibility with China's WTO obligations. Investigate localisation targets. Europe as well as the United States should request from China an official clarification of the purpose, character and implementation of the localisation tar-gets associated with Made in China 2025. These targets are mostly articulated in semi-official documents, and the Chinese government denies adopting any such instruments. Therefore, it is important to track whether and how China implements them on the ground. If it becomes clear that localisation targets are being implemented while bilateral consultations do not lead to tangi-ble results, member states should examine whether those targets violate the stipulations on local content requirements and subsidies in trade agreements like the GATT, TRIMs, ASCM and TBT. If the examination comes to the conclusion that China is violating WTO rules and if China insists on pursuing its policy in bilateral consultations, the EU should consider filing a case with the WTO Dispute Settlement Body.7.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS AND CHAMBERSINCREASING CHINA-RELATED ACTIVITY IN THE FIELD OF SMART MANUFACTURINGThe following measures are geared toward improving the support that industry associations and chambers of commerce can provide to European enterprises regarding smart manufacturing: Strengthen on-the-ground information-gathering. Decision makers urgently need more extensive and precise information on China's industrial policies applied in the context of Made in China 2025. Industry associations, through their presence on the ground, are in a good position to gather information and raise awareness on emerging smart manufacturing policies in China. Improve information sharing and coordination. Industry associations and chambers of commerce from Europe, the United States and other OECD countries should improve information It is important to track whether and how China implements localisation targets on the ground.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 64 | 7. Recommendationssharing. The capacities of these stakeholders can only fully come into play if associations with a strong presence on the ground in China combine their interests. An example of an existing coor-dination platform is the United States Information Technology Office in Beijing. Joint action can improve the international stakeholders' ability to create leverage with regard to Chinese political decisions.Increase information through intensified dialogue. Deepening exchange with Chinese smart manufacturing associations, industry partners and alliances as well as policy institutes will help provide early information about policy planning and implementation. Such dialogues can help solve technical issues that do not require decision making at the political level. Potential dialogue partners are the China Center for Information Industry Development (CCID), the Chinese Acade-my for Telecommunication Research (CATR), the National Alliance for the Development of the Industrial Internet and the Alliance for the Promotion of the Digitisation of Industry (for further potential partners see Figure 5).DISSEMINATING AND ESTABLISHING INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRY STANDARDS IN CHINAUse opportunities to influence standardisation processes. China is in an early stage of formu-lating standards for smart manufacturing. The technologically advanced level of European and American enterprises provides them with a chance to influence the Chinese standardisation pro-cess and to disseminate and establish international industry standards. Collaboration with China on standard formulation is a promising way to prevent the country from developing independent national standards that ultimately serve as technical barriers to trade and market access. Increas-ing the number of standardisation experts based in China would be a first step to improve asso-ciations' capacities. It will also be critical to participate in industry-based standardisation commit-tees, which exert considerable influence on the on-going reform of the Chinese standardisation system. 7.3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUPPLIERS OF SMART MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGYForeign suppliers of smart manufacturing technology have to strike a balance between reaping the benefits of the demand boom in China and protecting essential knowledge and technologies. Regarding the risk assessments of foreign enterprises, several aspects are worth considering: Prevent unidirectional technology transfer. Safeguarding core technologies will become even more challenging for foreign companies that apply smart manufacturing processes in China. Increasing digitisation in combination with weak data security makes core technologies highly vulnerable. An effective method of protection is to limit technical cooperation and digital integra-tion with Chinese partners and suppliers to areas in which Chinese companies are already at an advanced technological level. Research partnerships will enable European and U.S. counterparts to learn from Chinese enterprises as well and to jointly create new knowledge in the form of pat-ents and use cases. Promising areas for such collaboration include 5G mobile networks, wireless sensor networks, 3D printing, industrial e-commerce, cloud computing and big data. Hedge against risk by expanding business outside China. In light of Made in China 2025, international suppliers of smart manufacturing technology need to consider how to reduce their dependence on the Chinese market. As soon as China's substitution strategy is in full swing and Chinese competitors are catching up technologically, business opportunities for foreign compa-nies will sharply diminish. The active development of markets in Europe and the United States, as well as emerging markets such as India, can serve as a fallback option to complement engage-ment in China.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 657. Recommendations7.4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR COMPANIES USING SMART MANUFACTURINGAdvanced manufacturing technology will determine a company's international success. European and U.S. manufacturers must continually adjust their strategies to deal with this dynamic process. The following considerations can be helpful:Avoid illusions about the technology gap. Complacency is a major risk for advanced indus-tries. Currently, European and United States companies are still well ahead of most of their Chi-nese competitors in the use of smart manufacturing. But some Chinese companies, propelled by Made in China 2025, will quickly catch up. In order to avoid being caught off guard, European and United States companies need to maintain their focus on their own technological advancement, prioritising the further digitisation of their facilities. Although the business case for Industry 4.0 remains somewhat uncertain, curiosity and openness to technological change can prevent com-panies from being caught unprepared by breakthroughs of Chinese enterprises. Coordinate for collective action. International companies in China need to explore ways of building leverage to influence the Chinese leadership's decision making on industrial policy and cyber security regulations in the context of Made in China 2025. Streamlining approaches among foreign companies, is one way to build leverage. In some cases, interests also align between for-eign enterprises and their Chinese partners, opening additional opportunities for coordinated ac-tion.Streamlining approaches among foreign companies, is one way to build leverage. MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 66 | 8. AnnexTable 9(C) MERICS List of implementation documents for Made in China 2025 in the field of smart manufacturingDate of publicationPolicy document Releasing institution19/05/2015 Made in China 2025 (中国å¶é 2025) State Council21/07/2015 List for Smart Manufacturing Demonstration Projects 2015 (2015å¹´æºèƒ½å¶é 试点示范é¹ç›®åå•) MIIT27/07/2015 Key projects 2015 to Transform and Upgrade the Industry (2015年工业转型升级重点é¹ç›®æŒ‡å—) MIIT29/09/2015 Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap (ã中国å¶é 2025ã‰é‡ç‚¹é†åŸŸæŠæ'¯è·¯çºå›¾(2015ç‰ ) ) MIIT14/12/2015 Action plan (2015-2018) for Implementing the State Council's Guiding Opinions on Actively Advancing the Internet Plus Action Plan (è´¯å½>>落实ãŠå›½åŠéå…"于积极推è›'' äº'è--网+''èŒåŠ¨çšæŒ‡å¯¼æè§ã‹èŒåŠ¨è®å'¼2015-2018å¹´¼‰) MIIT30/12/2015 Guideline for the Construction of a National Smart Manufacturing Stan-dardisation System (2015) (国家æºèƒ½å¶é æ ‡å‡†ä½'ç">>å>>ºè®¾æŒ‡å—¼2015年牼‰) MIIT, Standardisation Administration of China01/04/2016 Implementation Plan for the Special Programme for Building National Champions in Single Commodities (å¶é 业单é¹å† 军企业培育提升ä¸'é¹èŒåŠ¨å®žæ–½æ–¹æ) MIIT27/04/2016 Plan for the Development of the Robotics Industry (2016-2020) (æ'ºå¨äººäº§ä¸šå‘展è§å'¼2016-2020å¹´¼‰) MIIT, NDRC, Ministry of Finance04 /07/2016 List for Smart Manufacturing Demonstration Projects 2016 (2016 å¹´æºèƒ½å¶é 试点示范é¹ç›®åå•) MIIT26/07/2016 Guideline for the Special Programme for Developing a Service-Oriented Manufacturing (发展æ'åŠåž‹å¶é ä¸'é¹èŒåŠ¨æŒ‡å—) MIIT, NDRC, Chinese Acad-emy of Engineering26/08/2016 Guideline for the Special Programme on Promoting the Upgrading of Quality Brands of the Equipment Manufacturing Industry (äƒè›è£…备å¶é 业质量å'ç‰Œæå‡ä¸'é¹èŒåŠ¨æŒ‡å—) MIIT, General Admin-istration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, State Ad-ministration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense30/08/2016 Guiding opinions on Improving the Innovation System of Manufacturing and Promoting the Establishment of Manufacturing Innovation Centres (å…"于完å–å¶é 业å›æ–°ä½'ç">>¼ŒæŽ¨è›å¶é 业å›æ–°ä¸­åƒå>>ºè®¾çšæŒ‡å¯¼æè§) MIIT02/09/2016 List of Pilot Demonstration Projects for the Chinese-German Cooperation on Smart Manufacturing (中德æºèƒ½å¶é åä½'2016年试点示范é¹ç›®åå•) MIIT21/09/2016 Special Programme for Innovative Development in Smart Hardware Indus-try (2016-2018) (æºèƒ½ç¬ä>>¶äº§ä¸šå›æ–°å‘展ä¸'é¹èŒåŠ¨¼2016-2018å¹´¼‰) MIIT, NDRC21/10/2016 Development Plan for Innovation Capacity in Industrial Technology (产业æŠæ'¯å›æ–°èƒ½åŠ›å‘展è§å') MIIT22/10/2016 Guideline for Key Projects of Industrial Upgrading (Made in China 2025) in 2016 (å…"于发布2016年工业转型升级¼ä¸­å›½å¶é 2025¼‰é‡ç‚¹é¹ç›®æŒ‡å—) MIIT07/11/2016 Guideline for Intellectual Property Rights in Manufacturing Innovation Centres (å¶é 业å›æ–°ä¸­åƒçŸ¥è¯†äº§æ'ƒæŒ‡å—) MIIT08/12/2016 Smart Manufacturing Development Plan (æºèƒ½å¶é 发展è§å'¼2016-2020å¹´ )) MIIT, Ministry of FinanceMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 678. AnnexENDNOTES1 | IFR [International Federation of Robotics] (2015). ''World Robotics 2015 Industrial Robots''. http://www.ifr.org/industrial-robots/statistics/. Accessed: July 15, 2016. Different from IFR data, our calculation for China also includes migrant workers in addition to regular workers.2 | IFR [International Federation of Robotics] (2015). ''World Robotics 2015 Industrial Robots''. http://www.ifr.org/industrial-robots/statistics/. Accessed: July 15, 2016; CCID [China Center for In-formation Industry Development] 赛èªå·¥ä¸šå'Œä息ç --ç(C)¶é (2015). ''云è®ç®—发展ç½çš®ä¹...(2015 å¹´)'' (White paper on cloud computing development (2015 edition)). April. http://www.chinacloud.cn/up-load/2015-10/15102014214779.pdf. Accessed: July 15, 2016; CCID [China Center for Information Industry Development] 赛èªå·¥ä¸šå'Œä息ç --ç(C)¶é (2015). ''大数据发展ç½çš®ä¹...(2015 å¹´)'' (White paper on big data development (2015 edition)). April. http://www.ccidwise.com/uploads/soft/150421/DATA.pdf. Accessed: July 15, 2016; CCID [China Center for Information Industry Development] 赛èªå·¥ä¸šå'Œä息ç --ç(C)¶é (2016). ''2016 å¹´ä¸­å›½å·¥ä¸šæ— çºä¼ æŸå¨ç½‘ç>>'产å'å¸‚å'ºåº--ç--¨è¶‹åŠ'' (2016 trends in the market of Chinese industrial wireless sensor network products). August 15. http://www.ccidgroup.com/sdgc/7742.htm. Accessed: July 15, 2016.3 | STAUFEN AG (2015). ''China '' Industrie 4.0 Index 2015.'' November 2. http://www.staufen.ag/fileadmin/hq/survey/STAUFEN.-studie-china-industrie_4_0-index-2015-DE.pdf. Accessed: July 18, 2016.4 | State Council 国åŠé (2016). ''æ'Žå…‹å¼ºä¸>>持国åŠéä¸'éè®²åº§è®¨è®ºåŠ å发展å…è›å¶é 与3D æ‰'印等问é'' (Li Keqiang heads State Council expert symposium to discuss the acceleration of the development of advanced manufacturing and 3D printing technology). August 23. http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2015-08/23/con-tent_2918394.htm. Accessed: August 25, 2016.5 | MIIT [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology] 工业å'Œä息化部 (2016). ''业å'Œä息化部å…"于引 发纺ç>>‡å·¥ä¸šå‘展è§å'(2016-2020 å¹´)çšéšçŸ¥'' (Notice of the MIIT on publishing the textile industry development Plan (2016-2020)). September 28. http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146295/n1652858/n1652930/n3757019/c5267251/content.html. Accessed: September 30, 2016.6 | Jost W¼bbeke and Bj¶rn Conrad (2015). '''Industrie 4.0': Will German Technology Help China Catch Up with the West?'' MERICS China Monitor (23). April 4. http://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/analyseschina-moni-tor/china-monitor23. Accessed: November 17, 2016.7 | Zhou, Ji 周济 and Zhu Gaofeng æ'±éå"° (eds.) (2015). å¶é 强国æ略ç --ç(C)¶¼šæºèƒ½å¶é ä¸'é卷 (Research on the manufacturing power strategy: smart manufacturing volume), 56. Beijing: Dianzi gongye chubanshe.8 | Stepan, Matthias and Lea Shih (2016). ''These Are the Super-Rich People Shaping China.'' Fortune. March 3. http://fortune.com/2016/03/03/china-national-peoples-congress-alibaba/. Accessed: August 25, 2016.9 | State Council 国åŠé (2015). ''国åŠéå…"于印发ãŠä¸­å›½å¶é 2025ã‹çšéšçŸ¥'' (Notice of the State Council on the publication of 'Made in China 2025'). May 8. http://www.miit.gov.cn/n11293472/n11293877/n16553775/n16553792/16594486.html. Accessed: May 24, 2016.10 | Expert Commission for the Construction of a Manufacturing Superpower [国家å¶é 强国å>>ºè®¾æ略å'¨ è¯å§--å‘会] (2015). ''ãŠä¸­å›½å¶é 2025ã‹é‡ç‚¹é†åŸŸæŠæ'¯è·¯çºå›¾'' ('Made in China 2025' key area technology roadmap). October. http://www.cae.cn/cae/html/files/2015-10/29/20151029105822561730637.pdf. Accessed: May 24, 2016; MIIT [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology] 工业å'Œä息化部 (2015): ''ãŠä¸­å›½å¶é 2025ã‹è§£è¯>>之¼šæŽ¨åŠ¨èŠ‚能与新能源汽è½...发展'' (Interpretation of 'Made in China 2025': Promoting the development of clean and new energy vehicles). www.gov.cn/zhuanti/2016-05/12/content_5072762.htm. Accessed: May 24, 2016.11 | Communication with industry specialists.12 | Giesen, Christoph and Thomas Fromm (2016): ''Deutsche Autohersteller sind entsetzt ¼ber chinesische Elektroquote (German carmakers are shocked by Chinese quota for electric vehicles) http://www.sued-deutsche.de/wirtschaft/e-autos-deutsche-automobilhersteller-sind-entsetzt-ueberchinesische-elekro-quote-1.3228492-2. Accessed: November 1, 2016.13 | MERICS research of articles contained in Wanfang database (www.wanfangdata.com.cn).14 | Liaoning and Guangdong for instance pay in 1 billion CNY each. MOF [Ministry of Finance] è´æ--部 (2016). ''æ‘国设ç‹å…è›å¶é 业投èµåŸºé‡‘'' (China sets up the advanced manufacturing investment fund). July 15. http://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/caizhengxinwen/201607/t20160715_2358336.htm). Accessed: July 22, 2016.15 | BMWi [Bundesministerium f¼r Wirtschaft und Energie] (2015). ''Industrie 4.0: Digitalisierung der Wirtschaft.'' June 15. http://www.bmwi.de/DE/Themen/Industrie/industrie-4-0.html. Accessed: August 2, 2016; BMBF [Bundesministerium f¼r Bildung und Forschung] (2016). ''Zukunftsprojekt Industrie 4.0.'' September 2. https://www.bmbf.de/de/zukunftsprojekt-industrie-4-0-848.html. Accessed: August 2, 2016.16 | Hong Kong Stock Exchange (2016). ''BYD company ltd. '' Announcement - completion of the additional A shares issue.'' July 21. http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2016/0721/LTN20160721879.pdf. Accessed: September 22, 2016; Cninfo 巨潮èµè®¯ç½‘ (2016). ''上海新时达ç--µæ°--è‚ä>>½æ'‰éå…¬å¸å…"于子公司è‚æ'ƒå'转并åžèµçšå…¬å‘Š'' (Announcement of Shanghai Stepelectric concerning a subsidiary's equity share transfer and capital increase). May 26. http://www.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2016-05-26/1202338525.PDF. Accessed: September 22, 2016.17 | Xinhuanet 新华网 (2016). ''å·¥ä部批复宁æ"为é...–个ãŠä¸­å›½å¶é 2025ã‹è¯•ç‚¹ç¤ºèŒƒåŸŽå¸‚'' [The MIIT ap-proves Ningbo as the first pilot city for 'Made in China 2025']. August 19. http://news.xinhuanet.com/city/2016-08/19/c_129240843.htm. Accessed: July 20, 2016; Cnstock 中国 证å¸ç½‘ (2016). ''ç æ±Ÿè¥å²¸å…­å¸‚ä¸åŒºå›å>>ºä¸­å›½å¶é 2025 试点示范城市群获批'' (6 cities on the West coast of the Perl River Delta were established as Made in China 2025 pilot cities). September 30. http://news.cnstock.com/news/sns_bwkx/201609/3913804.htm. Accessed: October 6, 2016.18 | Most of the local funding commitments apply to the period 2015-2017. Some have an extended period until 2020. The actual quantity of funds for smart manufacturing is presumably many times higher as most cities and provinces do not disclose the amount of funding and our analysis was confined to industrial robots alone.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 68 | 8. Annex19 | Personal communication with Southern Chinese smart manufacturing consultant.20 | Feng, Qingyan 冯庆è‰" (2016). ''æ'ºå¨äººè¥è´´ä¹±è±è°ƒæŸ¥å'°æ–¹'' 大跃è›''拉å'è‡çƒ­è­...报'' (Investigation of subsidy chaos for robots: the local ''Great Leap Forward'' raises alarm. EEO ç>>æµŽè§‚察网. April, 30. http://www.eeo.com.cn/2016/0430/285698.shtml. Accessed: July 11, 2016.21 | Xinhuanet 新华网 (2015). ''å·¥ä部:æ'担åƒ'中国å¶é 2025'再现重复å>>ºè®¾'' (MIIT: biggest concern for 'Made in China 2025' are reappearance of duplicate constructions). December 28. http://www.nmg.xin-huanet.com/xwzx/kjww/2015-12/28/c_1117602798.htm. Accessed: July 11, 2016.22 | Prodhan, Georgina and Susan Fenton (2016). ''Growth in demand for industrial robots halves as Chinese car-makers cut back.'' Reuters. September 29. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-robots-reportidUSKCN11Z1I2. Accessed: October 6, 2016.23 | ZDNet è‡"é¹ç½‘ (2015). ''若中国å¶é 业升级'æ'‰æ'¯æ— é''那æä¹‰ä½•å'¨?'' (What is the sense of industrial upgrading in China if it is based on ''technology without principles''. December 31. http://cio.zdnet.com.cn/cio/2015/1231/3070630.shtml. Accessed: July 11, 2016.24 | Klorer, Elena and Matthias Stepan (2015). ''Off target: China's vocational education and training system threatens the country's rise to industrial superpower status.'' MERICS China Monitor (24). October 2. http://www.merics.org/fileadmin/templates/download/china-monitor/China_Monitor_No_24_EN.pdf. Accessed: June 8, 2016.25 | Zenglein, Max J. (2016). ''China's overrated service sector: Missing dynamics threaten growth target.'' MERICS China Monitor (35). October 13. http://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/analyseschina-monitor/mer-ics-china-monitor-no-35. Accessed: November 16, 2016.26 | China Business Net 中国ç>>æµŽç½‘ (2016). ''富å£åº·å...认大量裁å‘但称æ'ºå¨äººå·¥äººæ¯æ'ªæ'¥'' (Foxconn disclaims that a great amount of the work staff will be replaced by robots). June 6. http://www.ce.cn/cysc/zgjd/kx/201606/06/t20160606_12552239.shtml. Accessed: June 6, 2016; Guo, Rongcun 郭荣æ'‘ (2014). ''æµ·å°--裁å‘上万背后¼šå®¶ç--µä¸šæ'ºå¨äººæ>>动å‘自动化挑æ'中国å¶é ''' (After Haier cut its workforce by over 10.000: automation in home appliances industry challenges 'Made in China').National Business Daily 每ç>>ç½‘. June 24. http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2014-06-24/843550.html. Accessed: June 8, 2016.27 | Zhang, Xiangmu å¼ ç›¸æ'¨ (2016). ''æºèƒ½å¶é 试点示范ä¸'é¹èŒåŠ¨'' (Special action of smart manufacturing pilots). In: 国家å¶é 强国å>>ºè®¾æ略å'¨è¯å§--å‘会 (Expert Commission for the Construction of a Manufacturing Superpower) and 中国工程éæ略å'¨è¯ä¸­åƒ (Strategy centre of the Chinese Academy of Engineering) (eds.). æºèƒ½å¶é (Smart manufacturing), 239-287. Beijing: Dianzi gongye chubanshe.28 | Haier æµ·å°-- (2013). ''é''岛海å°--è‚ä>>½æ'‰éå…¬å¸ 600690 2012å¹´å¹´åº...报告'' (Qingdao Haier joint-stock limited company 600690 2012 annual report). March 19. http://www.haier.net/cn/investor_relations/stock_a/finance_reports/201304/P020130411619658475178.pdf. Accessed: July 11, 2016; Haier æµ·å°-- (2016). ''é''岛海å°--è‚ä>>½æ'‰éå…¬å¸ 600690 2015å¹´å¹´åº...报告'' (Qingdao Haier joint-stock limited company 600690 2015 annual report). April 28. http://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/2016-04-29/600690_2015_n.pdf. Accessed: July 11, 2016.29 | China business information net 中商情报网 (2015). ''2015 中国工业æ'ºå¨äººé'求量状况å†æž'' (2015 analysis of Chinas demand for industrial robots). April 16. http://www.askci.com/news/cha-nye/2015/04/16/1625133ox9.shtml. Accessed: May 18, 2016; Zhou, Ji 周济 and Zhu Gaofeng éå"°(eds.) (2015). å¶é 强国-æ略ç --ç(C)¶¼šæºèƒ½å¶é ä¸'é卷 (Research on the manufacturing power strategy: smart manufacturing volume), 56. Beijing: Dianzi gongye chubanshe.30 | Su, Li 苏力 (2016). ''å¹ä¸'产æ'ºå¨äººèŽæ'¥äº§å'å›æ–°å‡çº§æ½® 产量年åž4000 台'' (Guangdong's robot produc-tion welcomes upsurge in product innovation level- within a year output increases by 4000 units). 人民网 (People's Daily Online). June 29. http://it.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0629/c1009-28508566.html. Accessed: July 11, 2016.31 | World of finance net 金融界网ç (2015). ''三ä¸é›†å›æ>>裁å--ä®å›½¼šå­...德国工业4.0 光é' é'±ä¹°ä¸æ'¥'' (Chairman of Sany Group Tang Xiuguo: it requires more than acquisitions to master Germany's Industry 4.0). November 19. http://finance.jrj.com.cn/people/2015/11/19161520102319.shtml. Accessed: June 27, 2016.32 | Communication with manufacturer in Southern China.33 | MOST [Ministry of Science and Technology] 科å­...æŠæ'¯éƒ¨ (2013). ''国家éæŠæ'¯ç --ç(C)¶å‘展è®å'¼863 è® å'¼‰ãå›½å®¶ç§‘æŠæ--¯æ'‘è®å'å¶é é†åŸŸ2014 å¹´åº...备é‰é¹ç›®å¾é›†æŒ‡å—'' (State High-tech development plan (863 programme) Guidebook for the recruitment process for the 2014 projects of China's science and technol-ogy support programme in the field of manufacturing). April 16. http://www.most.gov.cn/tztg/201304/t20130416_100885.htm. Accessed: May 17, 2016; NMP [National Science and technology Major Project] 国家科æŠé‡å¤§ä¸'é¹ (2009-2016). ''éæ£æ•°æŽ§æ'ºåºŠä¸ŽåŸºçå¶é 装备'' (Advanced digital control machines and fundamental manufacturing equipment). http://www.nmp.gov.cn/gzxgz/skjc/. Accessed: May 17, 2016.34 | SAT [State Administration of Taxation] 税åŠæ>>部 (2011). ''å…"于软ä>>¶äº§å'åžå¼ç¨Žæ--策çšéšçŸ¥'' (Notification concerning the VAT policy for software products). October 13. http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/n810341/n810765/n812156/n812464/c1186045/content.html. Accessed: August 24, 2016.35 | The search strategy included the combination of the following technologies and keywords: smart sensors, RFID, data security and safety, wireless communication networks, additive manufacturing, programmable logical controller, embedded systems, cyber-physical systems, machine-to-machine communication and cloud computing.36 | Hanemann, Thilo and Mikko Huotari (2016). ''A new record year for Chinese outbound investment in Europe.'' MERICS and Rhodium Group (eds.). February. https://www.merics.org/de/merics-analysen/merics-studien/a-new-record-year-for-chinese-outbound-investment-in-europe/. Accessed: July 26, 2016.37 | Xia, Xutian 夏旭ç--°, He Changjuan 何é•æ¶' and Zhang Fei å¼ é£ž (2016). ''国产æ'ºå¨äººå¸‚å'ºä>>½é'ä>>…8% 自ä¸>>å'ç‰Œå...‚何突围¼Ÿ'' (Chinese robots have only 8% market share - how can independent brands break out of the enclosure?). 21st century economics report 21 世纪ç>>æµŽæŠ¥é'. July 09. http://m.21jingji.com/arti-cle/20160709/af13b6096fb6eb39cc48ad529db467a9.html. Accessed: July 26, 2016.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 698. Annex38 | People's Daily Online 人民网 (2016). ''å¹ä¸'å°†åŠ å¤§æ'ºå¨äººé‡‡è´­è¥è´´ 重点扶持15 家é¾å¤´ä¼ä¸š'' (Guangdong plans to increase subsidies for robot procurements with main focus on the 15 leading enterprises). January 26. http://gd.people.com.cn/n2/2016/0126/c123932-27633460.html. Accessed: July 28, 2016.39 | Xia, Xutian 夏旭ç--°, He Changjuan 何é•æ¶' and Zhang Fei å¼ é£ž (2016). ''国产æ'ºå¨äººå¸‚å'ºä>>½é'ä>>…8% 自ä¸>>å'ç‰Œå...‚何突围¼Ÿ'' (Chinese robots have only 8% market share - how can independent brands break out of the enclosure?). 21st century economics report 21 世纪ç>>æµŽæŠ¥é'. July 09. http://m.21jingji.com/arti-cle/20160709/af13b6096fb6eb39cc48ad529db467a9.html. Accessed: July 28, 2016.40 | This figure is based on the industrial output targets of 25 parks. For the other parks, the figures are not available.41 | Sun, Hua å­åŽ (2016). ''æ'ºå¨äººå¸‚å'ºæ'‰æ'›è¾¾2000 äºå…ƒ è§æ¨å(C)好ç>>†å†èŒä¸šé¾å¤´'' (robot market promises to reach 200 billion CNY '' scope favourable for market leaders of subdivisions). Sina Finance 新 浪è´ç>>. April 7. http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2016-04-07/doc-ifxrckae7567552.shtml. Accessed: August 8, 2016; China News 中国新é—>>网 (2016). ''中国æ'ºå¨äººå¸‚å'ºæ'ªæ'¥10 年将达6000 äºå…ƒ'' (Chinese robotics market to reach 600 billion CNY within the next 10 years). April 09. http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2016/04-09/7828753.shtml. Accessed: August 8, 2016.42 | CCID [China Center for Information Industry Development] 赛èªå·¥ä¸šå'Œä息ç --ç(C)¶é (2016). ''2015-2016 年中国工业软ä>>¶å¸‚å'ºç --ç(C)¶å¹´åº...报告'' (2015-2016 annual industrial software market research report). March 10. http://www.ccidreport.com/report/content/5/201603/731278.html. Accessed: October 27, 2016.43 | Personal communication with industry expert.44 | Yonyou ç--¨å‹(2016). ''ç--¨å‹å®£å¸ƒè›å…¥3.0 时æ'Ÿ¼Œå…¨é'提供'企业äº'è--网æ'åŠ''' (Yonyou announces entering phase 3.0, now providing comprehensive ''company internet services''). August 13. http://subject.yonyou.com/zt/20160815/index.html. Accessed: August 15, 2016; Yonyou ç--¨å‹(2016). ''æ'åŠä¼ä¸šäº' è--网化æ‰'é 社会化商业å¹"台'' (Upgrading enterprise internet services '' creating a platform for social business). July 6. http://ftps.zdnet.com.cn/files/3/25208.pdf. Accessed: August 15, 2016; Xie, Shicheng è° ä¸–è¯š (2016). ''ç--¨å‹3.0 æ略发布¼Œå›¾è°‹ä¸‡å®¶ä¼ä¸šçšäº'è--网æ'åŠ'' (Yonyou announces strategy 3.0, internet services for 10.000 enterprises planned). August 15. http://www.doit.com.cn/p/253278.html. Accessed: August 16, 2016. 45 CCID [China Center for Information Industry Development] 赛èªå·¥ä¸šå'Œä息ç --ç(C)¶é (2016). ''æºèƒ½å¶é å'Œå·¥ä¸šè½¯ä>>¶å‘展ç½çš®ä¹...'' (Smart manufacturing and industrial software development whitebook). April 2016. http://www.ccidthinktank.com/uploads/soft/150421/ZHINENGZHIZAO.pdf. Accessed: October 27, 2016.46 | KPMG (2014). ''People's Republic of China Tax Profile.'' August. https://home.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2015/03/china-tax-profile-2014.pdf. Accessed: August 15, 2016; Chinadaily 中国日 报 (2015). ''Pref-erential Policies for Foreign Investment in Software Industry.'' January 30. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/jiangsu/wuxi/2015-01/30/content_19452536.htm. Accessed: August 15, 2016; MOF [Ministry of Finance] è´æ--æ— , shuiwu zongbu 税åŠæ>>部, fazhan gaigewei 发展æ--¹é'(C)å§--, gongye he xinxihuabu 工业å'Œä息化部 (2016). ''å…"于软ä>>¶å'Œé›†æç--µè·¯äº§ä¸šä¼ä¸šæ‰å¾—税ä¼æƒ æ--策æ'‰å…"问é çšéšçŸ¥'' (Notice on questions relating to the favourable income tax policy for enterprises of the software and IC industries). May 4. http://www.china-tax.gov.cn/n810341/n810755/c2128416/content.html. Accessed: July 28, 2016; Beijing Municipal Commis-sion of Economy and Information Technology 北京 市ç>>æµŽå'Œä息化å§--å‘会 (2016). ''软ä>>¶ä¼ä¸šäºå—æ‰å¾—税ä¼æƒ æ--策éšçŸ¥è§£è¯>>及企业备æèµæ–说æŽ'' (Decoding of the notice on the preferential income tax reform for software companies and explanation of filing requirements). June 29. http://www.bjeit.gov.cn/docs/2016-06/20160614163837519005.pdf. Accessed: July 28, 2016; The Beijing News 新京报 (2014). ''æ--åº'è¥è´´ä¸Šå¸‚公司èµé‡‘èžå¹´æš´åž'' (Government subsidies for listed companies increased over the last couple of years). August 5. http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2014-08/05/content_527679.htm?div=0. Accessed: July 28, 2016; Zhou, Yong 周勇 (2013). ''ç--¨å‹è½¯ä>>¶ä¸ŠåŠå¹´é' è¥è´´æ‰­äº'' (The first half of 2013 Yonyou depended on subsidies to reverse loss). Sootoo éŸé--网. August 13. http://www.sootoo.com/content/440276.shtml. Accessed: August 10, 2016.47 | Cnstock 中国证å¸ç½‘ (2016). ''ERP 国产化æ--策æ--¯æŒæåº...æŽç®¼Œé'待ç>>†åç>>äºæ›´å¤§å‚¬åŒ–'' (ERP localisation policy supports clear-cut manner, static rules and regulations show a bigger reaction). August 4. http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/20160804/c592160673.shtml. Accessed: August 10, 2016; Kingdee 金è'¶ (2016). ''金è'¶äº‘ERP 亮相å¶é 业与äº'è--网融åå"°ä¼š'' (Kingdee cloud ERP presented at the manufacturing and internet integration summit meeting) http://www.028kingdee.net/news/1574.html. Accessed: August 9, 2016; Gongkong 中国工控网 (2016). ''å·¥ä部å¼å±•å›½äº§å·¥ä¸šè½¯ä>>¶å±•ç¤ºå¯¹æŽ¥æ´>>动'' (MIIT launches Chinese industry and software enterprises exchange event). January 26. http://www.gongkong.com/news/201601/337623.html. Accessed: August 9, 2016; Deng, Wenlong é‚' æ–‡é¾ (2016). '''2016 å¹´åº...国产工业软ä>>¶ä¼ç§è§£å†"方æ展示对接ç">>å—æ´>>动'举办ç...å>>ºä¸'å'º'' (''2016 event series for Chinese industry and software enterprises to exchange outstanding software solutions'' held in Fujian). CINN 中国工业新é—>>网. January 22. http://www.cinn.cn/quy/jizhezhan/fujian/352288.shtml. Accessed: August 10, 2016.48 | China Entrepreneur Club 中国企业家ä±ä¹éƒ¨ (2016). ''ç--¨å‹è½¯ä>>¶çŽ‹æ–‡äº¬¼šæ--åº'åº--ç>>§ç>>­ç§¯æžå‘展软ä>>¶äº§ 业'' (Yonyou's Wang Wenjing: the government should continue to vigorously develop the software industry). May 10. http://www.daonong.com/html/dongtai/qiye/wangwenjing/20160510/59304.html. Accessed: May 16, 2016; Mingren Bokewang 名人博å®ç½‘ (2016). ''æ‘国软ä>>¶äº§ä¸šå‘¼åæ--åº'采购'' (China's software industry calls for government procurement). April 18. http://blog.qicvbjmn.net/yrzb/1034.html. Accessed: May 16, 2016.49 | Hapi Research æµ·æ¯--ç --ç(C)¶ and Division for Finance and Business Management Software of the China Soft-ware Industry Association 中国软ä>>¶èŒä¸šåä¼šè´åŠåŠä¼ä¸šç®ç†è½¯ä>>¶å†ä¼š (2014). ''大型企业ä息ç">>ç>>Ÿ çšå›½äº§åŒ–è·¯å¾'' (Information system localisation path for large-scale enterprises). June. http://nc.yonyou.com/nc/download/% E5%A4%A7%E5%9E%8B%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%B3% BB%E7%BB%9F%E7%9A%84%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E5%8C%96%E8%B7%AF%E5%BE%8 4.pdf. Accessed: May 16, 2016.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 70 | 8. Annex50 | Qianzhan 前çž>>产业ç --ç(C)¶é (2016). ''åžå½(C)å¶é 'åžå¼'可æ'Ÿ3D æ‰'印产业åéŸå‘展'' (The additive manu-facturing industry increases its value - the 3D printing industry develops quickly). http://wenku.baidu.com/view/4463a1f7f18583d04864593f.html. Accessed: June 22, 2016.51 | Ang, Francis Eduard (2015). ''3D printing industry expected to boom near future.'' Yibada. November 4. http://en.yibada.com/articles/81234/20151104/3D printing-technology-expected-boom-near-future. htm. Accessed: June 21, 2016.52 | Luxresearch (2014). '''3D printed in China' '' China bids for leadership in emerging 3D printing technology.'' September 30. http://www.luxresearchinc.com/news-and-events/press-releases/read/3dprinted- china-%E2%80%93-china-bids-leadership-emerging-3D printing. Accessed: June 23, 2016.53 | Ang, Francis Eduard (2015). ''3D printing industry expected to boom near future.'' Yibada. November 4. http://en.yibada.com/articles/81234/20151104/3D printing-technology-expected-boom-near-future. htm. Accessed: June 21, 2016.54 | Ipsos Business Consulting (2015). ''Opportunities and challenges in China's 3D printing market.'' May. http://www.ipsosconsulting.com/pdf/White-Paper-Opportunities-And-Challenges-In-China's-3D printing-Market.pdf. Accessed: June 14, 2016.55 | Yan, Alice (2016). ''Chinese builders use 3D printing technology to create Beijing villa.'' SCMP [South China Morning Post]. June 30. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/1983582/chinese-build-ers-use-3d-printing-technology-create-beijing-villa. Accessed: June 30, 2016.56 | Yang, Kristine (2015). ''Dawn of a new dimension.'' China Daily Europe. January 23. http://europe.china-daily.com.cn/epaper/2015-01/23/content_19386186.htm. Accessed: June 14, 2016; Xinhuanet 新华网 (2015). ''Premier urges stronger advanced manufacturing.'' August 23. http://news.xinhuanet.com/eng-lish/2015-08/23/c_134547113.htm. Accessed: June 14, 2016.57 | MOST [Ministry of Science and Technology] 科å­...æŠæ'¯éƒ¨ (2013). ''国家éæŠæ'¯ç --ç(C)¶å‘展è®å'¼863 è® å'¼‰ãå›½å®¶ç§‘æŠæ--¯æ'‘è®å'å¶é é†åŸŸ2014 å¹´åº...备é‰é¹ç›®å¾é›†æŒ‡å—'' (State High-tech development plan (863 programme) Guidebook for the recruitment process for the 2014 projects of China's science and technol-ogy support programme in the field of manufacturing). April 16. http://www.most.gov.cn/tztg/201304/t20130416_100885.htm. Accessed: July 7, 2016.58 | MIIT [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology] 工业å'Œä息部, fazhan he gaige weiyuanhui 发展å'Œæ--¹é'(C)å§--å‘会, caizhengbu è´æ--部 (2015). ''三部门è--åå°å‘ãŠå›½å®¶åžå½(C)å¶é 产业发展推è›è®å'㋠(2015-2016 å¹´)'' (3 departments jointly publish ''the country's additive manufacturing industry promotion plan (2015-2016)). February 28. http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146290/n4388791/c4215251/content.html. Accessed: July 7, 2016.59 | Sohu æ'狐 (2016). ''科æŠéƒ¨é‡ç‚¹é¹ç›®¼šåžæ'å¶é 企业揽获2.3 äºæŠ•èµ'' (MOST key project: additive manufac-turing companies snatch 2.3 billion CNY investment). July 6. http://mt.sohu.com/20160706/n458002046.shtml. Accessed: July 8, 2016; Beijing Times 京华时报 (2013). ''3D æ‰'印入é‰863 è®å' 国家拨ä>>4000 万ç --ç(C)¶èµé‡‘'' (3D printing included in the 863 programme, the country appropriates 40 million CNY research funds). April 27. http://www.nanjixiong.com/article-722-1.html. Accessed: July 8, 2016.60 | Voxeljet (2015). ''Voxeljet expandiert nach China und Indien.'' December 14. http://www.voxeljet.de/news-und-events/news/voxeljet-expandiert-nach-china-und-india/. Accessed: August 2, 2016; Molitch-Hou, Michael (2015). ''Solidscape and Kangshuo Group open largest 3D printing service in China.'' 3D printing industry. July 23. http://3dprintingindustry.com/news/solidscape-and-kangshuogroup- open-largest-3D printing-service-in-china-54051/. Accessed: August 2, 2016.61 | Krassenstein, Brian (2015). ''Shining3D to spin off Regenovo bio-printing brand, enter 3D printing resin market.'' 3Dprint.com. May 21. https://3dprint.com/67183/shining3d-regenovo/. Accessed: July 19, 2016.62 | Hunan Daily 湖南日报 (2015). ''中国工业及3D æ‰'印é...–æ¬èµ°å‡ºå›½é—¨'' (Chinese industrial 3D printers enter foreign markets for the first time). September 26. http://hnrb.voc.com.cn/hnrb_epaper/html/2015-09/26/content_1017328.htm?div=-1. Accessed: July 18, 2016.63 | 3ders '' 3D printing news (2015). ''Collaboration of BASF, Farsoon and LSS results in high strength PA6 powder for SLS 3D printing.'' November 17. http://www.3ders.org/articles/20151117-basf-farsoonand-lss-results-in-high-strength-pa6-powder-for-sls-3D printing.html. Accessed: July 20, 2016.64 | 3ders '' 3D printing news (2014). ''CTC Electronics heavily investing in China's largest 3D printer facto-ry.'' September 28. http://www.3ders.org/articles/20140928-ctc-electronics-heavily-investing-inchi-na-largest-3d-printer-factory.html. Accessed: June 18, 2016.65 | Grunewald, Scott J. (2016). ''Zhuhai CTC Electronic's Walnut Line is China's first proprietary metal 3D printer.'' March 31. https://3dprint.com/127471/ctc-walnut-metal-3d-printer/. Accessed: July 18, 2016.66 | Ruan, Runsheng é®æ¶...ç--Ÿ (2015). ''大基金将吸çº"海外èµæ'¬ 积极推动国é…并购'' (The National IC Fund will accept capital from overseas to vigorously push for international M&As). Securities Times 证å¸æ—¶ 报. Sep-tember 18. http://epaper.stcn.com/paper/zqsb/html/epaper/index/content_733669.htm?fin. Accessed: July 28, 2016.67 | Wang, Xiaohong 王æ'çº (2016). ''é¼'励民企积极参与对外投èµæ略布å±'' (Encouraging private companies to actively participate in foreign investment strategies). Economic Daily ç>>æµŽæ—¥æŠ¥. September 1. http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/201609/01/t20160901_15465076.shtml. Accessed: September 2, 2016.68 | David Evans (2016). ''Government Fund Weekly New Roundup '' SWFs Target Tech Startups.'' Sover-eign Wealth Center. January 15. http://www.sovereignwealthcenter.com/Article/3521311/Govern-ment-Fund-Weekly-News-RoundupSWFs-Target-Tech-Startups.html#/.WC2IhfnhBPY. Accessed: November 17, 2016.69 | St. Clair, Jeffrey (2006). ''The Saga of Magnequench.'' Counterpunch. April 7. http://www.counterpunch. org/2006/04/07/the-saga-of-magnequench/. Accessed: September 2, 2016.MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 718. Annex70 | Fahrion, Georg (2016). ''Aixtron '' Chinas Staatsstreich.'' Capital. October 24. http://www.capital.de/dasmag-azin/aixtron-chinas-staatsstreich.html. Accessed: October 24, 2016; Meng, Baole 孟å®'å‹' and Jack Ewing (2016). ''中国èµæ'¬æ¶Œå…¥æ¬§æ´²å°–ç¯æŠæ'¯äº§ä¸šå¼•å‘æ‹…å§'' (Rush of Chinese investment in Europe's high-tech firms is raising eyebrows). The New York Times. September 18. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/busi-ness/dealbook/china-germany-takeover-merger-technology.html?_r=0. Accessed: September 20, 2016.71 | U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (2016). ''Reasoned Statement of the management board and the supervisory board of Aixtron SE on the voluntary publiy takeover offer (cash offer) by Grand Chip Invest-ment GmbH.'' August 4. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1089496/000104746916014937/a2229459zex-99_a1.htm. Accessed: September 20, 2016.72 | Meissner, Mirjam and Jost Wuebbeke (2016). ''End of the road for international car makers in China? How digitisation will reshape the automobile market.'' MERICS China Monitor (31). April 19. https://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/analyseschina-monitor/end-of-the-road-for-internationalcar-makers-in-china.html. Accessed: September 21, 2016.73 | Dickinson, Steve (2015). ''Foreign SaaS in China: get off of my cloud.'' China Law Blog. April 14. http://www.chinalawblog.com/2015/04/foreign-saas-in-china-get-off-of-my-cloud.html. Accessed: August 23, 2016; MIIT [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology] 工业å'Œä息化部 (2009). ''ç--µä业åŠç>>è¥è®¸å¯ç®ç† 办æ"•'' (Permitted management methods for businesses in the telecommunication industry). March 11. http://www.gov.cn/flfg/2009-03/11/content_1256595.htm. Accessed: August 23, 2016.74 | Li, Yu æ —æ — (2014). ''可ä云æ'åŠè®¤è¯æ ‡å‡†å'Œè¯ä¼°æ–¹æ"•'' (authentication standards and evaluation methods for trustworthy cloud services).idcquan.com 中国IDC æ —. July. http://www.idcquan.com/Special/2014trucs/ppt/lw.pdf. Accessed: August 24, 2016; Data Center Alliance 数据中åƒè--盟 (2015). ''32 个云æ'åŠéšè‡ç¬¬ä¸‰æ‰¹å¯ä云æ'åŠè®¤è¯'' (32 Cloud services got through the 3rd trustworthy cloud services authentication stage). January 29. http://www.dca.org.cn/content/100164.html. Accessed: August 24, 2016.75 | Heilmann, Sebastian and Matthias Stepan (eds.) (2016). ''China's core executive '' Leadership styles and processes under Xi jinping.'' MERICS Paper on China (1). June. http://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/papers-on-china/chinas-core-executive-leadership-styles-structures-andprocesses-under-xi-jinping.html. Accessed: July 28, 2016; China Business Net 中国ç>>æµŽç½‘ (2016). '''äº'è--网+ '时ä>>£ ç--µå­å•†åŠäç--¨ä½'ç">>å>>ºè®¾äºŸå¾…åŠ 强'' (In the era of 'internet+' the construction of an e-commerce credit system needs to be reinforced). February 29. http://www.ce.cn/cysc/tech/gd2012/201602/29/t20160229_9156705.shtml. Accessed: July 28, 2016.76 | ZVEI [Zentralverband Elektrotechnik- und Elektroindustrie e.V.] (2015). ''Industrie 4.0: Das Refrerenzarchitek-turmodell Industrie 4.0 (RAMI 4.0).'' April. http://www.zvei.org/Downloads/Automation/ZVEI-Faktenblatt-In-dustrie4_0-RAMI-4_0.pdfg. Accessed: August 9, 2016.77 | IEC 62601:2015 and IEC PAS 62948:201578 | www.rolandberger.com/publications/publication_pdf/roland_berger_tab_industry_4_0_20140403.pdfMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • 72 | The authorsJost W¼bbeke is the Head of Programme Economy & Technology. He focuses on China's inno-vation policy, digital economy as well as its policy on energy and natural resources and product safety. He published on industrial policy, smart manufacturing and the internet of things in China. W¼bbeke wrote his PhD thesis on the Chinese raw materials and rare earth industry at the Envi-ronmental Policy Centre of the Free University Berlin. During his studies of International Relations and East Asian Studies, he interned at the German Embassy in Beijing and the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He was a visiting researcher at Tsinghua University and the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, an environmental research institute in Norway.jost.wuebbeke@merics.de Mirjam Meissner is the Head of Programme Economy & Technology. Her research focuses on industrial and innovation policy, infrastructure policy and renewable energy in China. She previ-ously worked as a research associate with the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi), where she was responsible for establishing and overseeing Stiftung Mercator's dialogue programme for Chi-nese-German young professionals. Meissner studied Sinology, Politics and Economics in Berlin and Wuhan. During her studies she gained experience in scientific policy advice through intern-ships at GPPi and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). mirjam.meissner@merics.de Max J. Zenglein is a Research Associate. His research focuses on China's sector-specific and mac-roeconomic development, Chinese-German economic relations and China's labour market and em-ployment. Prior to joining MERICS he worked as an economic analyst in the Beijing and Shenzhen offices of the German Chamber of Commerce Greater China, where he monitored macroeconomic conditions in the Greater China region and surveyed German companies in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. In 2015 he completed his Ph.D. in political economy. He studied at the University of New York at Buffalo, the Berlin School of Economics and Law, the University of Hong Kong and the University of Kassel. max.zenglein@merics.de MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • | 73The authorsJaqueline Ives is a Research Associate. She focuses on industrial policy and digitisation in China. Prior to joining MERICS, she worked as a research associate at the Institute for China Business and Economics in W¼rzburg. She studied Asian Studies, Chinese, Economics and China's economy in Bonn, Shanghai and W¼rzburg. During her studies, Ives gained professional experience in the Ger-man automobile industry in Wolfsburg and international textile trade in Hong Kong. In her master thesis, she analysed the relevance of tax havens for Chinese companies. jaqueline.ives@merics.de Bj¶rn Conrad is the Vice President Research of MERICS. He coordinates the institute's research agenda and its outreach to political and economic decision makers. His own expertise is in the areas of economic innovation and environmental policy. He previously served as Climate Change and Environment Officer at the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Na-tions (FAO), managing numerous environmental projects in China and its neighbouring countries. Prior to that, he worked for the Global Environment Facility at the World Bank in Washington, DC. In 2014, Conrad was appointed member of the expert committee tasked with drafting a China Strategy for the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). After completing his stud-ies in Sinology, Political Science and Economics in Germany and China, Conrad received a Master in Public Policy from the Harvard Kennedy School, specialising in environmental policy and eco-nomics. bjoern.conrad@merics.deMERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016
    • ImprintMERICS | Mercator Institute for China StudiesKlosterstraŸe 64, 1\f179 Berlin, GermanyTel.: +49 3\f 344\f 999 \fMail: info@merics.dewww.merics.deEditorClaudia Wessling, Director of Communications, MERICSLayout /DesignSTOCKMAR+WA LT E R KommunikationsdesignGraphicsSTOCKMAR+WA LT E R Kommunikationsdesign Johannes Buckow, MERICSTitlegraphic: Wu Yimeng (Studio Wu)Copyright (C) \b\f16, MERCATOR INSTITUTE FOR CHINA STUDIESPrinted in Berlin, GermanyISSN (Print): 2509-4\f19ISSN (Online): 2509-5862
    • www.merics.orgISSN (Print): \b5\f9-4319ISSN (Online): \b5\f9-586\b

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  • VIDEO - The New Silk Road takes shape | Euronews
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  • VIDEO - European leaders to Catalan separatists: Get lost | Euronews
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• Maps
  • ANOTHER MAP - (4) What is One belt one road china? - Quora
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:32
    •  
    • INTRODUCTION TO ONE BELT, ONE ROAD (OBOR) INITIATIVE
    • One belt one road, also known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a project initiated by the Chinese President Xi Jinping. Its objective is to build trade routes between China and the countries in Central Asia, Europe and Indo-Pacific littoral countries. (Littoral countries means situated on the shore of Indian and the Pacific Ocean).
    • OBOR/ BRI is a network of roads, railways, oil pipelines, power grids, ports and other infrastructural projects meant to connect China to the world.
    • It was announced in the year 2013 with an objective to rejuvenate the ancient trade routes connecting Asia to Europe. (known as the Silk Road or the Silk Route).
    • The OBOR initiative has been bifurcated into two parts:
    • The 'belt' refers to the 'Silk Road Economic Belt' which is land based. It will connect China with Central Asia, Eastern and Western Europe. The 'road' refers to the '21st Century Maritime Silk Road' which is sea based. It will connect China to South-East Asia, Africa and Central Asia. Six economic corridors and one maritime route have been proposed under the OBOR:
    • 1. New Eurasian Land Bridge. (connect Western China to Western Russia)
    • 2. China '' Mongolia '' Russia Corridor (North China to Eastern Russia via Mongolia)
    • 3. China '' Central Asia '' West Asia Corridor (Western China to Turkey via Central and West Asia
    • 4. China '' Indochina Peninsula Corridor (Southern China to Singapore via Indo-China)
    • 5. China '' Pakistan Corridor (South Western China to and through Pakistan)
    • 6. Bangladesh '' China '' India '' Myanmar Corridor (Southern China to India via Bangladesh and Myanmar)
    • 7. Maritime Silk Road connecting Coastal China to the Mediterranean via Singapore-Malaysia, the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
    • As we can see, OBOR is an ambitious project and it encompasses almost 65 countries. China has planned around $1 trillion of investment in various infrastructure projects by providing loans to the countries involved at a low cost.
    • OBJECTIVES OF CHINA BEHIND THIS INITIATIVE
    • China wants to develop international clout by expanding its influence. It feels isolated as it is not a part of G7 countries. Hence, OBOR will enable China to exert greater regional influence. The GDP of China has slowed down in the recent years. China expects the OBOR initiative to boost its GDP by boosting trade. China will find new markets for its product. The Chinese model of growth had been investment led. It has led to excess capacity. This excess capacity will be channelised effectively if China ventures into newer markets for its export. It will boost Yuan's usage amongst the countries and strengthen the role of Yuan as an international reserve currency. (Further readings: http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017... ) It will fix regional disparities in China. The Eastern and Southern regions of China have lagged behind in terms of growth. These regions will be now better connected to the world.CHALLENGES FACED BY CHINA
    • Some of the countries involved have a very low sovereign credit rating. These countries with low credit-worthiness might not be able to service their debt. This would affect China financially.Countries in middle-east are unstable and possess a risk to the OBOR initiative.There might be a political backlash in poor countries if they feel they are being exploited by China. This backlash has already occurred in countries like Srilanka, Myanmar, Africa, when they could not service their debt. The investment made by China in these countries did not generate enough profits. Hence, there might be a problem of poor countries left laden with massive debt.BENEFITS FOR THE OTHER COUNTRIES INVOLVED
    • It could bridge the infrastructural deficit in developing countries like Afghanistan and PakistanThese countries could see a boost in their GDP with increased investment and increased trade.But, we should not be too optimistic about the success of OBOR as Chinese investments had led to political backlashes in the past. Charges of environmental degradation and labour exploitation were levelled against them.
    • Also, the loans might be cheap but they come with riders. The countries have to source material from China which results in an increase of cost of borrowing.
    • Lastly, it is not sure whether the poor countries will be able to benefit from greater trade as they already run a hugeTrade deficit with China.
    • INDIA'S POSITION
    • India has boycotted the OBOR initiative due to the following reasons:
    • China-Pak Economic Corridor(CPEC) passes through the Indian territory (Pak-occupied Kashmir). It trespasses India's sovereignty and territorial integrity.India has a dominance in the Indian Ocean and is worried about the Chinese investment in the Maritime route through the Indian Ocean.The OBOR initiative lacks transparency.CONCLUSION
    • India has much to lose out in terms of economic boost through greater integration with other countries. India also risks isolation as all its neighbouring countries (apart from Bhutan) are a part of this initiative. To mitigate the damage, it should build ties with other countries and increase its spending on infrastructure.
    • If you want to read more of such posts, subscribe to my blog Economyria by clicking on this link:FeedBurner Email Subscription
  • BESTEST MAP - map of new silk road BRI - Google Search
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:27
    •  
    • 669 — 505 - blogs.timesofisrael.com
    • {"cl":3,"clt":"n","id":"L7Tr7nMskmUkEM:","isu":"blogs.timesofisrael.com","itg":0,"ity":"png","oh":505,"ou":"http://cdn.timesofisrael.com/blogs/uploads/2016/10/New-Silk-Road-Map.png","ow":669,"pt":"Bunting\u0027s map and Israel on China\u0027s new silk road | Christina Lin ...","rid":"ymYEZnD4Qfj-AM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/buntings-map-and-israel-on-chinas-new-silk-road/","s":"new-silk-road-map","st":"The Blogs | The Times of Israel","th":195,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcRdwU74puEQff0dRy_vuDTjoEkz02wD6jP0orgrfbJz7lNp98ThKQ","tw":258}
    • 1300 — 846 - atimes.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"lyN3S6VOEzpXHM:","isu":"atimes.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":846,"ou":"http://static.atimes.com/uploads/2017/01/China-Silk-Road-Map-CFR-1300x846.jpg","ow":1300,"pt":"Xi\u0027s wild geese chase the Silk Road gold | Asia Times","rid":"bery8v6xJmZGzM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.atimes.com/article/xis-wild-geese-chase-silk-road-gold/","s":"Three silk roads stretching from China to Southeast Asia Europe and Africa, Jan 2017.","sc":1,"st":"Asia Times","th":181,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcSdfVRwJeIw1W8mKzddED2a5MyQk7kTV7jsVn0wHUGGaHhh3GlMIQ","tw":278}
    • 825 — 510 - eurasiareview.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"DgbNeeNoI1gCTM:","isu":"eurasiareview.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":510,"ou":"http://www.eurasiareview.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/china-silk-road.jpg","ow":825,"pt":"China\u0027s New Silk Road Project And South Asia \u2013 OpEd \u2013 Eurasia Review","rid":"8WJM5lzww1kjLM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.eurasiareview.com/02062017-chinas-new-silk-road-project-and-south-asia-oped/","s":"China\u0027s new Silk Road OBOR (One Road One Belt) project","sc":1,"st":"Eurasia Review","th":176,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcT6e_D0r5Oh-A_DShVja4k2P1dN4xEVQ4Zl9W06PYnEqifBS9eRSw","tw":286}
    • 1080 — 608 - larouchepac.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"gv3iWzZBxqmRTM:","isu":"larouchepac.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":608,"ou":"https://larouchepac.com/sites/default/files/landbridge_0.jpg","ow":1080,"pt":"Watch the Trailer: \u0027The New Silk Road Becomes the World Land ...","rid":"AEtaOSK2SJIxVM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"https://larouchepac.com/20141125/eir-releases-new-silk-road-becomes-world-land-bridge","s":"World Land-Bridge Network\u2014Key Links and Corridors.","sc":1,"st":"LaRouchePAC","th":168,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcTmIipOWt6rp1NkQObC4j66EFfQAbbj2VvZpRmoQXs7RPIujso8eg","tw":299}
    • 729 — 496 - smh.com.au
    • {"clt":"n","id":"mhgabiVjmJ48iM:","isu":"smh.com.au","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":496,"ou":"http://www.smh.com.au/cqstatic/12z7v7/Silk_road_map_729.jpg","ow":729,"pt":"New Silk Road: China invites world leaders to hook up to \u0027One Belt ...","rid":"R2iYPIb86X-x1M","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.smh.com.au/world/new-silk-road-china-invites-world-leaders-to-decipher-one-belt-one-road-20170512-gw3ge0.html","s":"The Sunday forum is the government\u0027s attempt to reshape the narrative that One Belt, One Road is China\u0027s vision alone, and overcome Western suspicion.","sc":1,"st":"The Sydney Morning Herald","th":185,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcR7nnWukjqHkpRLaAbkF4B5EJyugprllHN5hAZ7UgQNVwawaFLM","tw":272}
    • 3708 — 2811 - merics.org
    • {"cb":6,"clt":"n","cr":3,"id":"EvwYTuula7mLrM:","isu":"merics.org","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":2811,"ou":"https://www.merics.org/fileadmin/user_upload/pic/China-Mapping/170515_MERICS_China_Mapping_BRI_March_2017.jpg","ow":3708,"pt":"Infographic/China Mapping Silk Road Initiative - China Mapping ...","rid":"fGr2fufinYrxfM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"https://www.merics.org/en/merics-analysis/infographicchina-mapping/china-mapping/","s":"Publications · China Mapping · Infographic/China Mapping Silk Road Initiative","sc":1,"st":"Mercator Institute for China Studies","th":195,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcQyWqm4W0tQ5Dqdprv1KIm13BfaTflfevtxpPdJbDQKksxzBn8R","tw":258}
    • 800 — 375 - oboreurope.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"DnFqpoyb7mYHKM:","isu":"oboreurope.com","itg":0,"ity":"png","oh":375,"ou":"http://www.oboreurope.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/landbridge-corridor-map-oboreurope.png","ow":800,"pt":"One Belt - OBOReurope","rid":"8QtJjMOFoCjaKM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.oboreurope.com/en/beltandroad/one-belt/","s":"1) The New Eurasia Land Bridge Economic Corridor","sc":1,"st":"OBOReurope","th":154,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcQl1P_iXgGTr1NM5gs_j9FStFRHSv9SfaGAHbKj3kkisB1fKSXVVQ","tw":328}
    • 2173 — 1403 - strategicdemands.com
    • {"cb":6,"cl":3,"clt":"n","cr":6,"ct":3,"id":"e3Z6U2yqFF140M:","isu":"strategicdemands.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":1403,"ou":"http://www.regionalentwicklung.at/files/iron_silk_road.jpg","ow":2173,"pt":"Eurasia \u0026 New Silk Road - StratDem","rid":"1NOgaP9cr4AlZM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://strategicdemands.com/eurasia-newsilkroad/","s":"... New Silk Road: High-speed rail\u2026","sc":1,"st":"Strategic Demands","th":180,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcSj91Vfvl3JbQg596QLNHuXy5jO6t2J4XKajrzqshu01QdUMhV9TQ","tw":280}
    • 4588 — 2788 - larouchepac.com
    • {"cb":3,"cl":3,"clt":"n","ct":3,"id":"SbgvjwjE1_u4CM:","isu":"larouchepac.com","itg":0,"ity":"png","oh":2788,"ou":"https://larouchepac.com/sites/default/files/BRI-V2-expanded-for-web.png","ow":4588,"pt":"LaRouche\u0027s Four Laws \u0026 America\u0027s Future on the New Silk Road ...","rid":"OwkEVM67IYfRYM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"https://larouchepac.com/20170225/four-laws-pamphlet","s":"A. China-Mongolia-Russia Corridor \u2014 June 2016 the three presidents signed a trilateral economic partnership agreement at the 11th SCO meeting, consisting of ...","sc":1,"st":"LaRouchePAC","th":175,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcS5Sg5wZPRfNf3b6Rbm7L9iw9ChBM9IBQhvmbUXY_Yz43YqZ24I","tw":288}
    • 1494 — 1013 - combined-transport.eu
    • {"clt":"n","id":"4d_H_pFIIWeXDM:","isu":"combined-transport.eu","itg":0,"ity":"png","oh":1013,"ou":"https://combined-transport.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Bildschirmfoto-2017-01-08-um-19.19.08.png","ow":1494,"pt":"The New Silk Road \u2013 The Vision of an interconnected Eurasia ...","rid":"kHFOTwL6nRNA1M","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"https://combined-transport.eu/the-new-silk-road-obor","s":"The New Silk Road \u2013 The Vision of an interconnected Eurasia","sc":1,"st":"Combined Transport Magazine","th":185,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcQfWehXKA1lWV8PhX7PGoKsOgBA1UfPh8TWxsKgUiUdwEbLTW78","tw":273}
    • 752 — 549 - bennelongfunds.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"1YH-DfEVvnZl7M:","isu":"bennelongfunds.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":549,"ou":"https://www.bennelongfunds.com/uploads/images/insights/4D/GM%2015%20Im2.JPG","ow":752,"pt":"Global Matters: All aboard the new Silk Road // Bennelong","rid":"u0GPWn1MadUhgM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"https://www.bennelongfunds.com/insights/266/global-matters-all-aboard-the-new-silk","s":"The overland \u0027Belt\u0027 involves the creation of an economic and trade corridor extending from China\u0027s east through Central Asia, and finally to Europe.","sc":1,"st":"Bennelong Funds Management","th":192,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcTUc0UkplngUObk1CMQciSWM2xi2b3Cd-PZK-PB_3_iw7dkqvJW","tw":263}
    • 900 — 539 - supchina.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"L9jbYHXqJ--nvM:","isu":"supchina.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":539,"ou":"http://supchina.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/beltandroadmap.jpg","ow":900,"pt":"The Belt and Road: China\u0027s \u0027project of the century\u0027 - SupChina","rid":"an5t5TKCjZy5hM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://supchina.com/2017/06/20/belt-road-chinas-project-century/","s":"","sc":1,"st":"SupChina","th":174,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcS77d27tpEWYCcO4mmxhpC2R7nXMSewNNK-RBJrKZ1ICQfi6YBHyA","tw":290}
    • 824 — 556 - china-trade-research.hktdc.com
    • {"cb":3,"clt":"n","cr":3,"ct":3,"id":"FTcRzkJsPCd7sM:","isu":"china-trade-research.hktdc.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":556,"ou":"http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/resources/MI_Portal/Article/obor/2015/07/470675/1449545116751_en_470675.jpg","ow":824,"pt":"The Belt and Road Initiative | HKTDC","rid":"NBeme04ly-YWrM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative/obor/en/1/1X000000/1X0A36B7.htm","s":"Photo: The Belt and Road Initiative: Six Economic Corridors Spanning Asia, Europe and Africa","sc":1,"st":"China Trade - HKTDC","th":184,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcTmsZm27IYwFMDEj5xMuigIOZQJoGaehXGqp9oqZ44l2CG9-n-CVw","tw":273}
    • 888 — 583 - allchinareview.com
    • {"cl":9,"clt":"n","id":"axw2slgeeht-qM:","isu":"allchinareview.com","itg":0,"ity":"png","oh":583,"ou":"http://www.allchinareview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/map1.png","ow":888,"pt":"China Looks West: What Is at Stake in Beijing\u0027s \u201cNew Silk Road ...","rid":"hS7RlYBX6Wk8hM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.allchinareview.com/china-looks-west-what-is-at-stake-in-beijings-new-silk-road-project/","s":"map1","st":"All China Review","th":182,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcSBRXo-qCaLVZ3PQYh6TbaKI52_HfYdBjWzzxNIZYgOAbTXGFcJWQ","tw":277}
    • 1572 — 1334 - straitstimes.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"SpjMnj0uwk54ZM:","isu":"straitstimes.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":1334,"ou":"http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/articles/2017/05/14/china-silkroad-security.jpg","ow":1572,"pt":"The trains and sea ports of One Belt, One Road, China\u0027s new Silk ...","rid":"Aw9QkSCC7-ed-M","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/the-trains-and-sea-ports-of-one-belt-one-road-chinas-new-silk-road","s":"Here are some of them:","sc":1,"st":"The Straits Times","th":207,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcQcRhREjsHe0cC5WjwSBP--64GZzEwMBkea9ZWTGNXpXWH5ezqnHQ","tw":244}
    • 1536 — 1265 - mckinsey.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"G4om2BALO5IXyM:","isu":"mckinsey.com","itg":0,"ity":"ashx","oh":1265,"ou":"https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Capital%20Projects%20and%20Infrastructure/Our%20Insights/One%20belt%20and%20one%20road%20Connecting%20China%20and%20the%20world/PNG_One-belt-one-road_China_ex1.ashx","ow":1536,"pt":"One Belt and One Road\u0027: Connecting China and the world | McKinsey ...","rid":"Rij1Q5_Ax2vqwM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/one-belt-and-one-road-connecting-china-and-the-world","s":"Several routes are proposed for the \u0027new Silk Road.\u0027","sc":1,"st":"McKinsey","th":204,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcSXvRimjqjWTh_HjriMWKCKfEsgaBDe76gE6yHBH3Yj9BXVomVG","tw":247}
    • 700 — 394 - kashmirwatch.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"2lvSiaFAzxdnhM:","isu":"kashmirwatch.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":394,"ou":"http://kashmirwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-06-at-20.46.36.jpg","ow":700,"pt":"China\u0027s New Silk Road project and South Asia! | KashmirWatch","rid":"wam4X86mEsaklM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://kashmirwatch.com/chinas-new-silk-road-project-south-asia/","s":"China\u0027s New Silk Road project and South Asia!","sc":1,"st":"KashmirWatch","th":168,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcQa2WHp1PyFkjtrQbxoKxTrMWiWfbW61PdeyjUbMZMo1m5-O2guwQ","tw":299}
    • 700 — 394 - dw.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"bKa8RV5qx1RI3M:","isu":"dw.com","itg":0,"ity":"png","oh":394,"ou":"http://www.dw.com/image/38637698_401.png","ow":700,"pt":"China\u2032s \u2032New Silk Road\u2032 brings great promise to eastern Europe ...","rid":"DOJUfTBEIARJ3M","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"http://www.dw.com/en/chinas-new-silk-road-brings-great-promise-to-eastern-europe/a-36271021","s":"Infografik Karte 12.000 Kilometer auf der Schiene ENG UK-China Frachtzug","sc":1,"st":"dw","th":168,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcSabRs3ekQxX3DQ5ChL66P0cve1kpil2ZXkDD0yFRXkRS3AOgU4NA","tw":299}
    • 1280 — 723 - larouchepac.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"r--rAvZBm11o8M:","isu":"larouchepac.com","itg":0,"ity":"jpg","oh":723,"ou":"https://larouchepac.com/sites/default/files/front-cover-Recovered-websiteversion-left-justified-5.jpg","ow":1280,"pt":"LPAC Pamphlet: The U.S. Joins the New Silk Road | LaRouchePAC","rid":"qkRvdHSCP5yPLM","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"https://larouchepac.com/20151228/lpac-pamphlet-us-joins-new-silk-road","s":"","sc":1,"st":"LaRouchePAC","th":169,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcTQpGcKUuqc4iWKY_KlhgJ5lG_yQ_l7OoTcB8AXXg0n_GUkH09N","tw":299}
    • 865 — 496 - themarketmogul.com
    • {"clt":"n","id":"sCD0Ls48_kF1cM:","isu":"themarketmogul.com","itg":0,"ity":"png","oh":496,"ou":"https://themarketmogul.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/11.png","ow":865,"pt":"China\u0027s 6 Magical Economic Corridors - The Market Mogul","rid":"u9tyeyw1A2vn_M","rmt":0,"rt":0,"ru":"https://themarketmogul.com/chinas-6-magical-economic-corridors/","s":"CMREC, NELB, CCWAEC, CICPEC, CPEC, BCIMEC","sc":1,"st":"The Market Mogul","th":170,"tu":"https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q\u003dtbn:ANd9GcTbqFbi-z28yTTQgvwujW-cGdW1ZI9GOHjHFg1wQPJIH9-JqOiozw","tw":297}
  • BEST MAP-China attempts to redefine global economic order
    • Link to Article
    • Archived Version
    • Tue, 31 Oct 2017 23:26
    •  
    • ON MAY 14, China celebrated its new global influence at the gathering of world and regional leaders, including the United Nations. By officially launching and showcasing president Xi's One Belt, One Road initiative, China made a bold expression of its confidence. The One Belt, One Road initiative looms on a scope and scale with little precedent in modern history.
    • By promising more than $1 trillion in infrastructure investment spanning 60-plus countries, China aims to use its wealth and industrial know-how to create a new kind of globalisation. The goal of 'globalisation mark 2.0' is to dispense with the rules of the ageing western-dominated institutions and refashion the global economic order, drawing countries more tightly into China's orbit.
    • Frustrated at western powers' reluctance to reform institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reflect the growing economic strength of developing countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa earlier set up the BRICS Development Bank, with its headquarters in Shanghai. Despite faltering economic performance of some founding countries since its formation, the BRICS Development Bank is keeping the dream alive.
    • China itself set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Western allies of the United States such as Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, New Zealand and Finland broke ranks with the United States to join China's AIIB. Australia, too, joined after dragging its feet. Only the United Kingdom and Japan, staunch supporters of the United States, remain outside.
    • On January 16, the AIIB celebrated its first year of operations after extending over $1.7 loans in nine projects across Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The AIIB unveiled the aim to rival multilateral lenders with its readiness to lend up $250 billion.
    • Critics feared that the AIIB would be used to advance China's national interests, which would lower environmental and human rights standards. But happily, this has not happened. Instead, through the AIIB, China has been able to advance its economic interests using soft power.
    • President Obama attempted to thwart China's growing geo-political advance with the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans-Atlantic Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. President Obama's last state of the union address made this abundantly clear: 'With TPP, China does not set the rules in that region, we do.' But with president Trump's 'America first' mantra, both ambitious US-led geo-political initiatives seem dead.
    • On the other hand, as can be seen from the map, China is investing in massive infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa and Europe to form the backbone of its ambitious economic and geo-political agenda. In a quest to create deep economic connections and strong diplomatic relationships, president Xi with his One Belt, One Road initiative is forging ties, creating new markets for the country's construction companies and exporting its model of state-led development.
    • Chinese engineers are drilling hundreds of tunnels and bridges along the jungle-covered mountains of Laos to construct 260-mile railway lines, a $6 billion project that will connect eight Asian countries.
    • As part of its $46 billion investment, the deep-water port at Gwadar of Pakistan on the Arabian Sea will be linked by new roads and rail to western China's Xinjiang region, creating a shortcut for trade with Europe.
    • To provide another artery for Chinese goods flowing into Europe through a Chinese-owned port in Greece, Chinese planners are mapping out train lines from Budapest to Belgrade.
    • China financed most of Africa's $4 billion first transnational electric railway, which runs 466 miles from Djibouti to Addis Ababa.
    • China is financing more than a third of the $23.7 billion Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant on the Somerset coast of southwest England. This project in a major western economy will give added prestige to the One Belt, One Road initiative.
    • No doubt these projects essentially serve China's economic interests. With growth slowing at home, China is producing more steel, cement and machinery than the country needs. So China is looking to the rest of the world, particularly developing countries, to keep its economic engine running.
    • But China's geo-political interest is also paramount. The One Belt, One Road initiative is a more daring version of the Marshall Plan, America's post-war reconstruction effort. Back then, the United States extended vast amounts of aid to secure alliances in Europe. China is investing hundreds of billions of dollars of state-backed loans to win new friends around the world, but without requiring military obligations.
    • India, another emerging regional power, is understandably worried. It skipped the May 14 summit attended by regional heads of state/government, including president Putin. India is particularly uneasy because Chinese-built roads will run through disputed territory in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
    • India is also upset over China's refusal to allow its entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a global cartel that controls nuclear trade, and over Beijing blocking a request at the UN to sanction Masood Azhar, the Pakistan-based head of Jaish-e-Mohammad.
    • In boycotting the Beijing summit, India said, 'No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.' On the other hand, Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif called for pushing forward the construction of the US$50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. President Xi said, 'China plans to build it as a road to peace.'
    • The US decision to attend the summit marked a U-turn in its position. Seeing it as an attempt to globally promote Chinese influence, some western diplomats have expressed unease about both the Summit and the plan as a whole. But China rejects the criticism, saying that the scheme is open to all; is win-win for all and aimed only at promoting prosperity.
    • According to president Xi, 'What we hope to create is a big family of harmonious co-existence.' Let us hope that is the case.
    • Let us also hope that 'globalisation mark 2.0' will not be dominated by the interest of multinational corporations like the current globalisation drive. Instead, it will be more inclusive and beneficial for both people and the planet earth.
    • Anis Chowdhury, a former professor of economics at the University of Western Sydney, Australia, held various senior UN positions in New York and Bangkok.